2015 Opening Day Payroll

[Danchat]

Needs: SS

 

Last I checked we had a pretty average SS in Eduardo Escobar with a potentially really good Danny Santana waiting in the wings. And if Santana can't put it together, Jorge Polanco has some skills too. I really see no need to spend money on a SS for the 2015 season.

[TwinsTerritory]

On no planet do the four listed agents sign for two years. The Twins need a catcher and a center fielder in my opinion. They are set for bullpen and I would rather May and Meyer get shots as well as Johnson and Gilmartin before any more free agent pitchers are brought in

 

If you read my post more carefully, I said those were the only 4 I'd sign for more than 2 years. The odds that the Twins sign any of the 4 is miniscule, I was simply making the point that the free agent crop is weak and the Twins are much better off promoting prospects than signing marginal free agents to 3 or 4 year deals.

[nicksaviking]

I would be very surprised if they break camp with two rookies in the rotation, recipe for problems all year. I think one makes it, one starts in the minors, and I don't think they are counting on Pelfrey to come back in anything other than a Deduno role.

 

If May and Meyer are both rookies come spring training, the front office will have some questions to answer to.

[nicksaviking]

One thing, with this payroll flexibility for next year, the Twins really should be moving Suzuki even if they want his services next year. If they like him as much as suspected, they can always make an unreasonably high offer to bring him back. Think Mike Pelfrey but with less nausea.

[tobi0040]

If May and Meyer are both rookies come spring training, the front office will have some questions to answer to.

 

Good point, but lets sub "rookies" for "young pitchers". I would argue Mike Pelfrey in the rotation is going to be a worse recipe than any other reciple, including Meyer and May. The guy has not been downright awful and he has given us no innings over the last two years. We have seen nothing that says he is even a 5th starter in the AL and I really hope they don't have him on scholarship yet again.

[jay]

true, but everyone is saying no one is coming up next year, right? Sano needs a year, Buxton might, maybe, possibly come up some time next year. that means they are at least 2 years from extending them, at least. And, those don't happen for pitchers. And, no one is else is close to coming up that you would extend. There has been very little help from the minors for years, there aren't players to extend. that's really the root of the problem here.

 

Definitely the root of the problem related to the recent struggles. I'm not so sure it can't happen for pitchers -- the Rangers are an example of being aggressive there.

 

And there are extension candidates: Dozier, Plouffe, and Gibson will all be in conversation. Not sure I'd do it for Plouffe, but there are advantages to doing it now if the Twins think he's turned the corner.

 

There's only a couple candidates this year, but more to come over the next few years -- Arcia, Sano, Meyer, May, Buxton, and maybe others. There's a big opportunity here for the Twins to aggressively move salary from future arb years for these guys (let's say '17-'21) into earlier years that have plenty of payroll flexibility ('15-'17). Instead of seeing their salaries appreciate significantly right as the team is hopefully contending, the Twins can level some of that out with a more static salary structure. There's risk to that, but it could leave the team in an even better position to add that "one missing piece".

[drjim]

If May and Meyer are both rookies come spring training, the front office will have some questions to answer to.

 

I was using "rookie" as shorthand for pitchers with less than a year in a mlb rotation.

[Mike Sixel]

I don't see Arcia as an early contract guy......but I could be wrong on that.

[jay]

Yeah, maybe not... but at least qualifies as a candidate.

[laloesch]

With all due respect you obviously haven't driven a Cadillac or a Buick OR a Chevy lately. But yeah we get the point.

[pierre75275]

If you read my post more carefully, I said those were the only 4 I'd sign for more than 2 years. The odds that the Twins sign any of the 4 is miniscule, I was simply making the point that the free agent crop is weak and the Twins are much better off promoting prospects than signing marginal free agents to 3 or 4 year deals.

You would be correct. My sincere apologies.

[laloesch]

I think you're right on. I can see a scenario of May coming up in spring training to join a rotation of Nolasco, Hughes, Gibson and Paltry...uh I mean Pelfrey (you know the FO is going to give him another shot) with Meyer spending at least another half season in AAA. That's my gut feeling unless Jim Pohlad pushes for big changes.

 

On the one hand I'm dying to see what Meyer can do at the major league level, but on the other hand I think he needs to spend the remainder of the season at AAA until he maxes out his innings allowed and then spend part of 2015 in Rochester fine tuning. He is still inconsistent and developing a changeup, which he needs (contrary to what some people are posting).

 

Plus they have Johnson, Gilmartin, Darnell and Pino swirling the drain functioning as filler.

[nicksaviking]

I was using "rookie" as shorthand for pitchers with less than a year in a mlb rotation.

 

I get it, relying on youngsters can come back to haunt you, but it didn't stop the Twins from doing this a decade ago when Garza, Blackburn, Perkins, Baker, Slowey and Liriano were all inhabiting the rotation early and often.

 

Heck last year they had Cole DeVries and Liam Hendricks in the opening day rotation and no one was pretending that there was any upside there.

[drjim]

I get it, relying on youngsters can come back to haunt you, but it didn't stop the Twins from doing this a decade ago when Garza, Blackburn, Perkins, Baker, Slowey and Liriano were all inhabiting the rotation early and often.

 

Heck last year they had Cole DeVries and Liam Hendricks in the opening day rotation and no one was pretending that there was any upside there.

 

They aren't against using young pitchers, they are against using multiple guys in the rotation at the start of the season that have less than a year of starting in the majors. I don't think they started a season with two of those guys in the opening day rotation with less than a full season, but I could be wrong.

 

I'm quite sure DeVries and Hendricks were not Plan A going into the season. But you bring up a good point, May and Meyer could certainly start the season in the rotation, but the Twins rightly won't go into spring training with that being the plan.

[Mike Sixel]

I don't think that is right at all, as some kind of fact, drjim. I believe that would be the best plan (or signing a legit FA and dealing one of them for a LF/SS/whatevers).

[drjim]

I don't think that is right at all, as some kind of fact, drjim. I believe that would be the best plan (or signing a legit FA and dealing one of them for a LF/SS/whatevers).

 

What's not right/fact?

[old nurse]

I predict it drops. May and Meyer will be here. They won't sign a big time 3B or 1B or RF. They won't be adding a SP (if they do, then they need to be willing to start dealing from the minors backlog), it would be a waste to pay for any RP at this point.

 

that leaves C, DH, LF, CF, SS

 

In looking at the available players, I can't see how they come close to spending $30MM to get back to this year's number.

 

The only way it happens is if they deal for guys with existing deals, imo.

 

What big time 3b, rf or 1b will be out there?

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

What big time 3b, rf or 1b will be out there?

 

Here's a list of potential 2015 Free Agents:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/02/2015-mlb-free-agents.html

 

Chase Headley looks like the best 3B available - he's a bit like Mauer in that he's always been a good hitter, but never for much power. Melky Cabrera is probably the best OF name that will potentially be on the market. He'd probably rather be in LF or CF than RF.

 

 

Kendrys Morales, Josh Willingham, Torii Hunter, Denard Span, Delmon Young, JJ Hardy (maybe could play 3B), and Michael Cuddyer are the current/former Twins that could play some combo of those positions and are upcoming free agents.

[Mr. Brooks]

It will be interesting to see how this thread clashes with the thread on Pohlad's comments. On one hand, we'll have plenty of people saying payroll will go down as younger players are brought in, while on the other hand plenty of people will say that Pohlad is cheap.

 

After four years, they will probably get ripped no matter what they do.

 

 

They had an opportunity to add Jose Abreu at a price that wasn't crippling.

He went to Chicago, that tellls me he was open to signing for a cold weather team.

He went to Chicago, that tells me he was open to going to a losing team.

 

This at least leaves open the possibility that they are in fact cheap, as they had plenty of money for this signing, with of course the other option being that their international scouts are not very good.

[ScottyB]

They had an opportunity to add Jose Abreu at a price that wasn't crippling.

He went to Chicago, that tellls me he was open to signing for a cold weather team.

He went to Chicago, that tells me he was open to going to a losing team.

 

This at least leaves open the possibility that they are in fact cheap, as they had plenty of money for this signing, with of course the other option being that their international scouts are not very good.

 

How about a third option - they knew they were moving Mauer to 1B and he's signed until 2018 with a no trade clause.

[Mr. Brooks]

How about a third option - they knew they were moving Mauer to 1B and he's signed until 2018 with a no trade clause.

 

 

Abreu can't DH?

[ScottyB]

Abreu can't DH?

 

When was the last time a team signed a DH/1B Free Agent to a 6-year deal? (Ask Kendrys Morales) And what are the odds that Abreu would want to just DH at age 27? My guess is even if the Twins had matched or bypassed the Sox, he wouldn't have come here.

 

Okay, there was Pujols, but he was signed as a full-time 1B.

[Mr. Brooks]

When was the last time a team signed a DH/1B Free Agent to a 6-year deal? (Ask Kendrys Morales) And what are the odds that Abreu would want to just DH at age 27? My guess is even if the Twins had matched or bypassed the Sox, he wouldn't have come here.

 

Okay, there was Pujols, but he was signed as a full-time 1B.

 

 

Yep, the old standby. LOL.

There is no way to argue with that I guess, but I have a hard time believing that there is any reason he'd choose Chicago over here.

 

Both are cold weather cities, and both losing teams.

 

Fine, put Abreu at 1B and Mauer at DH.

 

Abreu's bat plays just as well at either spot.

[drjim]

Yep, the old standby. LOL.

There is no way to argue with that I guess, but I have a hard time believing that there is any reason he'd choose Chicago over here.

 

Both are cold weather cities, and both losing teams.

 

Fine, put Abreu at 1B and Mauer at DH.

 

Abreu's bat plays just as well at either spot.

 

So are the Twins cheap or are 28 other teams cheap as well.

 

Surely he would have signed with the Twins if they offered the most money but no chance that happens once Mauer was moving to first. How many teams would lock up 1b and dh for that many years and dollars. Crazy talk.

[Mr. Brooks]

Yeah, who wants a 50+ HR threat in the middle of their lineup. That is crazy talk, what am I thinking.

[jorgenswest]

The Twins should have let Willingham go to the Orioles when they claimed him. It would have forced to look for a middle of the order bat. When you sign decline players to multiyear contracts, you end up enduring some bad years while not seeking other solutions.

[jtkoupal]

No need for a shortstop. Escobar has played well there and Santana is the future.

[drjim]

Yeah, who wants a 50+ HR threat in the middle of their lineup. That is crazy talk, what am I thinking.

 

If people knew he would hit this well I suspect he would have signed for significantly more.

 

EDIT: And I'll repeat my question - can you think of one franchise that has locked up a 1b and dh combo for that much money and that many years? It would have been 5 years at around $35 combined per.

[Mr. Brooks]

If people knew he would hit this well I suspect he would have signed for significantly more.

 

EDIT: And I'll repeat my question - can you think of one franchise that has locked up a 1b and dh combo for that much money and that many years? It would have been 5 years at around $35 combined per.

 

 

Which is why I suggested the other possibility being that their international scouts are not very good. Perhaps I should have made that more clear.

 

What is wrong with locking up a 1B/DH combo for that many years and dollars if they are both great hitters?

[TwinsTerritory]

Which is why I suggested the other possibility being that their international scouts are not very good. Perhaps I should have made that more clear.

 

What is wrong with locking up a 1B/DH combo for that many years and dollars if they are both great hitters?

 

1. Abreu signed for 6 years/$68 million. If any of the 30 major league teams thought he was going to be this good, he would have signed for 8 years/$200 million dollars. Blame the Twins scouts all you want, but then I would assume every team has bad scouts.

 

2. See #1, nobody knew he'd be this good. Plus, almost all teams are going away from a full-time DH (aside from the Red Sox/Royals) for a few reasons. First of all, it really decreases flexibility with one spot used up there without the option to give good hitters a day off from the field w/o losing their bat. Secondly, when a full-time DH is no longer hitting well (Billy Butler) it really hamstrings a team. Obviously there is nothing wrong with paying two great hitters to play 1B and DH, but it is very rare among all 15 AL teams, not just the Twins.