Article: Trade Candidate: Kurt Suzuki

[DAM DC Twins Fans]

However, I'm inclined to keep Suzuki. I recall from an earlier post that the free agency catcher options are very underwhelming next year. If he signs for a modest 2 year extension say in the 10-12 range or maybe one year plus a team option I would not complain. With several young pitchers coming up in the next year of so I believe the veteran backstop would be a wise investment. Even if he ends up backing up Pinto next year I still feel he's a wise investment.

 

I agree--good catchers are rare--free agency looks week. Offer Suzuki 2 years/15mil. If he takes it great. If not (and he can see free agency market too), then trade him. That means rolling the dice with Pinto the next couple of years until our catchers in Class A are ready. I hope Suzuki takes the deal--not a fan of Fryer.

[jokin]

Yep. This is why I'd strongly consider holding on to Suzuki. Do the Twins need another Sean Gilmartin in the organization if it means they put Eric Fryer behind the dish in 2015?

 

If the offer borders on a top 100 - maybe even top 150 - prospect, then you listen. If it's more organizational filler with marginal upside, keep Kurt and extend him for 2/$14m.

 

Or get a great, or not so great deal for Suzuki, let Pinto get the bulk of the PAs for the rest of the year. And then make a more informed analysis on whether to re-sign Suzuki in the offseason.

[jokin]

I agree--good catchers are rare--free agency looks week. Offer Suzuki 2 years/15mil. If he takes it great. If not (and he can see free agency market too), then trade him. That means rolling the dice with Pinto the next couple of years until our catchers in Class A are ready. I hope Suzuki takes the deal--not a fan of Fryer.

 

Not necessarily true. They can attempt to re-sign Suzuki in the offseason if they decide that Pinto still won't be ready in 2015, or look to teams who are looking to move soon-too-expensive vets to be replaced with their prize prospects, like Houston and Jason Castro, for example.

 

I do agree about Fryer, though.

[jorgenswest]

They can trade him to St. Louis or Baltimore with the knowledge that he will be available in the winter. Take the prospects and pursue Martin first and Suzuki second this offseason. While he is gone, play Pinto regularly. They may find out they don't need to pursue a catcher.

[Dantes929]

"Suzuki has no incentive to sign an extension when the market is ripe (i.e. shortage of FA catchers) for him to make a killing this off season. Are the Twins known as a team that outbids and overpays in years and dollars for a player? I don't think so. Get something while you can. If the Twins are serious about wanting him back they can overpay for him in the off season."

Actually he has a great incentive to sign an extension. Does he himself think he is a 300 hitter? He has everything to lose by waiting. A half season of his career average of .250 or less will put him right back where he was at the beginning of this year in terms of bargaining power. Twins should trade him if they can get something good He will probably regress to his career averages and the Twins can get him for 3 or 4 mil this off season if they want him. If we can't get something good then let him play it out and maybe resign him in the offseason. This is he order of best results. 1. Sell high and resign him for reasonable price when he goes back to being a .250 hitter with average defense. 2. Sell high and not resign him. 3. Let him play out the year and have a decent catcher working with the pitchers for the rest of the year and then resign him when he regresses to the norm. (Even at his career average he is a decent player, just not great) . Let him play the season out and do not resign him. We have already gotten our money's worth out of him. 4. Keep him. He actually does continue to play well and we pay the same then as we would now for more years with him. This is probably buying high but at least with more data to support it 5. Extend his contract at a premium based on his all star 1st half. In other words selling him high is best outcome. Buying him high is worst outcome which is what we would be doing by extending his contract at this point.

[jokin]

Obviously I meant to include the previous post, my bad.

 

As for the attractiveness of some team's #10 prospect for Suzuki? In most systems, this prospect is a back-of-the-rotation guy or a 4th OF type. Is that really selling high? What constitutes an overwhelming return for Suzuki?

 

A top 100 guy, perhaps in a down year, who projects possibly better than back-of-the-rotation or utility position player (Jays have a couple of these pitchers, as does Baltimore)...and to get this type of deal done would likely require other players to be involved- plus a highly motivated buyer.

[Boom Boom]

IMO, if you're going to sign Suzuki again (and it's going to take at least a two-year commitment), you're pretty much waving the white flag on Pinto ever being the catcher and you might as well trade him.

 

Two more years in AAA or more time as a backup/part-time DH isn't going to help Pinto's development. If you trade Pinto soon, I bet some other team would take a chance on him being a starting-caliber catcher.

[DJL44]

If they trade Suzuki to the Cardinals or Orioles he will be available this offseason. Neither one will be offering him an extension.

[jokin]

They can trade him to St. Louis or Baltimore with the knowledge that he will be available in the winter. Take the prospects and pursue Martin first and Suzuki second this offseason. While he is gone, play Pinto regularly. They may find out they don't need to pursue a catcher.

 

Yep. And add Toronto to that mix of teams, and possibly the Dodgers, they have some prospects and their group of catchers for the year has a BA of .196 with a .568 OPS (Drew will do that for you).

[Dantes929]

Essentially the Twins and the fans need to look at Suzuki as a .250 hitter with ok defense. Its easy to say you would still like him but have the Twins extend his contract for 16 mil and then see him fail in a half dozen situations where he succeeded in the first half and then get back to me.

[jokin]

How do you know this, and what relevance is it? Ryan was pursuing pitching talent, and it was by this initiative that he landed May and Meyer, correct? Washington and Philadelphia didn't thrust those key prospects upon Ryan.

 

I have no idea what you're responding to here, but if it's in regards to trading Span, it's public knowledge that the Nats were pursuing Span for years. Ryan himself said the Phillies called out of the blue on Revere, pretty clear that Ryan did not initiate either deal. I'm sure there was some thrusting going on in making both deals, from both sides. May had actually plummeted down from the top of the Phils prospect list- turning more to suspect. This is the type of move I'm advocating for Ryan to make again here, finding an arm recently out of favor, but still with decent upside.

[Kwak]

"Buying him 'high'?"--Well folks, that is what will happen. The question is: "Which team will be 'buying at the market'?" Those 2-year "offers"--there will be several of them for Suzuki's agent to peruse, and some will come from a team that is playoff-bound. Recall that the Twins had to offer a third year at the same annual pay to convince Willingham to sign. A 31-year-old Catcher--not "rusted-out" yet, there's still plenty of miles left for a forthcoming contract (at least for one team). I neither advocate nor discourage re-signing Suzuki, I'm just pointing-out that he won't have to humiliate himself (last last off-season) for his next contract. Suzuki has paid his dues.

[jokin]

"Buying him 'high'?"--Well folks, that is what will happen. The question is: "Which team will be 'buying at the market'?" Those 2-year "offers"--there will be several of them for Suzuki's agent to peruse, and some will come from a team that is playoff-bound. Recall that the Twins had to offer a third year at the same annual pay to convince Willingham to sign. A 31-year-old Catcher--not "rusted-out" yet, there's still plenty of miles left for a forthcoming contract (at least for one team). I neither advocate nor discourage re-signing Suzuki, I'm just pointing-out that he won't have to humiliate himself (last last off-season) for his next contract. Suzuki has paid his dues.

 

And it's also possible that he falls back to earth with his acquiring team, significantly lowering his value going into the off-season.

[Mike Sixel]

Players usually bet on themselve though, not on regressing. Usually being the key word.

[DutchFarmer]

What would it take to land D'Arnaud from the Mets? They have a top 100 catching prospect (Plawecki) waiting in the wings. Might be expensive in terms of prospect(s) but wouldn't the trade ultimately look like Suzuki + top prospect for D'Arnaud + mid-level prospect? I'd consider that....obviously depending on who our top prospect would be.

[jorgenswest]

Has Suzuki changed as a hitter? If so, what should the Twins expect going forward?

 

There is enough sample to look at the rate stats and batted ball outcomes and compare them to his career line.

 

[TABLE=class: outer_border, width: 288]

[TD=width: 72][/TD]

[TD=width: 72]2014[/TD]

[TD=width: 72]2013[/TD]

[TD=width: 72]Career[/TD]

K%

8.0%

11.1%

11.5%

BB%

7.4%

7.0%

6.5%

ISO

.086

.105

.119

GB%

45.5%

37.2%

41.7%

FB%

31.9%

40.3%

39.2%

HR/FB%

2.4%

4.2%

6.2%

[/TABLE]

 

He has changed as a hitter. He is striking out at a career low rate. Walks are up. His ISO is a career low. His increase in ground ball rate has helped his BABIP and hence his batting average. His BABIP isn't sustainable at .328 but certainly would be better than the .245 he put up last year as a fly ball hitter.

 

His offensive value is tied to his increase in singles and his batting average. There is enough sample to suggest his change as a hitter is real. It is reasonable to project a batting average in the 270s comprised mostly of singles going forward.

 

Acknowledging that he is a better hitter than the 2012-2013 version, I would still trade him for the best the market has to offer. Any Cardinal or Oriole deal gets extra credit because they are certain to let him become a free agent. The Dodgers and Blue Jays may be more motivated to extend him.

[Brandon]

Suzuki made a fundamental change in the way he hits. So he is more of an average and doubles hitter. I see no reason he couldn't hit .280 for the next 3 years or so.

 

If Suzuki signs an extension now it shows he wants to be here which is why one should be offered. I don't think we should trade him unless we get a top prospect for him as in an overpay because I think he can help with the development of the pitchers coming up May and Darnell and the Sept call ups of likely several relievers maybe but not likely Meyer. Also I think to take the risk of trading then not being able to sign Suzuki we should receive a premium on that too. We are ultimately better off signing him to an extension and trading Pinto at this point. Pinto is getting too much bad press about his defense that even if he improves he is going to be stuck with the bad reputation for a long while. Pinto is not going to be the DH here. Especially if the Twins sign Morales to an extension.

 

What can we expect for Pinto?

 

So compare trade Suzuki and try to overpay to get him back in the offseason or

 

trade Pinto and sign Suzuki to an extension now.

[JB_Iowa]

Trade him or extend him. But get one of those done before the trade deadline.

 

The LAST thing I want to see is a failure to trade him and then wimping around on an extension. Then you've gotten nothing except a few more months.

 

I want to see decisiveness. I like the idea of trading him (and like what Seth points out about talking to him and not burning bridges by doing so). But if the decision is that they need to keep him around for another couple of years, then get it done and agreed to now (yes, I know this is buying high).

[Dave T]

I agree with Seth that Suzuki is the Twins best trade chip, among position players. On the theory that any player can be had for a price, I say sure, listen to the offers. But if someone offers a B-quality prospect, hang up the phone! Suzuki is an all-star major league catcher. The Twins really need him.

 

If Suzuki goes, who would replace him? I think Pinto has yet to prove he can play the position. It would not surprise me if Pinto spends the next couple of years in AAA, at which point he is either your catcher of the future or the guys at the A level today will have passed him by. I really don't want to put up with watching AAAA catchers like Hermann and Fryar for two years. Been there, done that (Twins have been an AAAA team for the past few years). My hope is, Suzuki is OK with a 2-year deal, and the Twins sign him to one.

[tobi0040]

I agree with Seth that Suzuki is the Twins best trade chip, among position players. On the theory that any player can be had for a price, I say sure, listen to the offers. But if someone offers a B-quality prospect, hang up the phone! Suzuki is an all-star major league catcher. The Twins really need him.

 

If Suzuki goes, who would replace him? I think Pinto has yet to prove he can play the position. It would not surprise me if Pinto spends the next couple of years in AAA, at which point he is either your catcher of the future or the guys at the A level today will have passed him by. I really don't want to put up with watching AAAA catchers like Hermann and Fryar for two years. Been there, done that (Twins have been an AAAA team for the past few years). My hope is, Suzuki is OK with a 2-year deal, and the Twins sign him to one.

 

I think you need a guy on the 100 list for Suzuki, or offer him a 2 year deal. If his demands are crazy, then move him for the best offer. I agree though, something needs to happen in the next 14 days.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I may be dis-remembering this, but it struck me at the time that we accumulated a lot of talent for Rick Aguilara under this same philosophy. Trade him for prospects once the season revealed its underbelly, and then sign him again in the winter. Rinse and repeat. If Kurt feels both the joy of playing for this team and the promise of its future, he will understand the motives behind a move and come right back at season's end.

 

You are "dis-remembering" a bit -- the first Aguilera trade brought back Frankie Rodriguez (oh how I wish we had gotten the "other" Francisco Rodriguez! ). He was once ranked #9 by BA, but that was as a low-A shortstop. His ranking had fallen as he switched to pitching and climbed the ladder, although he was still BA's #36 prospect before 1995 (although I think prospect rankings were much less accurate at the time). However, warning signs were there: he was pitching out of Boston's AAA bullpen for some reason, and his K rate had actually dropped in the AAA pen, and control issues were evident.

 

Plus, Aguilera returned to the Twins that offseason to be a starting pitcher. If he had stayed in his closer role, I suspect a return to the Twins may not have been his preferred destination.

 

And there was no rinse and repeat -- the second Aguilera trade brought back Lohse, but Aguilera did not return to the Twins (he retired after just one more season anyway).

 

Additionally, it's widely understood that it was easier to trade veterans for prospects in the mid-90s than today (veteran salaries were relatively cheaper, and there were no restrictions on draft or international bonuses). If Suzuki brings back a Sean Gilmartin type (to pull a name out of a hat), and is even slightly less likely to return... is it worth it? Especially if know you won't trust Pinto in the job in 2015 (or you may not trust him to break in young pitchers the rest of 2014, for that matter)?

 

Not saying I would do it, but it seems like the Twins would prefer extending him rather than trading him.

[troyhobbs]

Trade him. Trading veterans w/ expiring contracts is rebuilding 101. I like him but he's replaceable.

[Thrylos]

If Suzuki brings back a Sean Gilmartin type (to pull a name out of a hat), and is even slightly less likely to return... is it worth it? Especially if know you won't trust Pinto in the job in 2015 (or you may not trust him to break in young pitchers the rest of 2014, for that matter)?

 

a. Yes. (even though Suzuki better bring more than Doumit did). Because Gilmartin is better than nothing (which is what the Twins will get for Suzuki in November.)

 

b. I think that neither May nor Meyer have had any issues with Pinto catching them and he has plenty of history catching them, so they should be more comfortable with a catcher who knows their stuff rather than one who does not.

[laloesch]

Like Denard Span and Ben Revere?

 

I understand the Ryan doesn't move players when some people want him to move them (never mind that peoples' notion of "sell high" is often unreasonable) but let's not pretend that he doesn't move some players at precisely the right time. Span's value collapsed almost immediately after the trade and Revere wasn't far behind him.

 

 

AND it looks like both those trades could be sow big returns long term for the Twins. May has been fantastic this season and Meyer is progressing with moments of near brilliance in AAA. If both those guys become effective front line starters, I will definitely be patting Ryan on the back for those trades. Worley was always filler, nothing more.

 

If we could trade Suzuki and get one strong prospect with upside potential say a position player (infielder) or a starting pitching prospect at the trade deadline, i'd be happy.

[Dman]

Any chance there would be a bidding war for Suzuki's services between the Dodgers and the Cardinals? They both have good defensive catchers but Suzuki would be a large offensive upgrade.

 

If you are the Dodgers is getting him addition by subtraction? I mean by getting him they deny the Cardinals an opportunity to upgrade at catcher and they upgrade that position themselves. That would give the Dodgers an advantage if they play each other. They would have a catcher who can hit or at the very least a real nice bat off the bench for later in the game. Same would hold true the other way for the Cardinals. Just thinking out loud.

[Kwak]

The Dodgers might include Drew in their offer.

[jokin]

Any chance there would be a bidding war for Suzuki's services between the Dodgers and the Cardinals? They both have good defensive catchers but Suzuki would be a large offensive upgrade.

 

If you are the Dodgers is getting him addition by subtraction? I mean by getting him they deny the Cardinals an opportunity to upgrade at catcher and they upgrade that position themselves. That would give the Dodgers an advantage if they play each other. They would have a catcher who can hit or at the very least a real nice bat off the bench for later in the game. Same would hold true the other way for the Cardinals. Just thinking out loud.

 

I like this line of thought. If it isn't necessarily true, Ryan should play it up, regardless. Given the Dodgers generosity on the Butera trade, there's a chance to make a good trade, and even an outside chance for a blockbuster-good trade. The Dodgers were rumored to be making a run at Papelbon, what if Perkins is brought into play here? The Dodgers pen has only one quality LHP. Who knows, maybe the two top Dodgers prospects (Pedersen and Seager) are brought into the discussion, perhaps with an additional prospect from the Twins side.

[jorgenswest]

Looks like Suzuki wants to test the market. Berardino reports that contract talks fizzle fast.

 

http://www.twincities.com/sports/ci_26188736/twins-kurt-suzuki-contract-talks-fizzled-fast

 

This is Suzuki's last shot a good contract. It is easy to understand why he would want to test the market.

 

It certainly doesn't appear Suzuki will sign a reasonable extension this summer. The Twins need to take the best offer and try to sign him in the winter.

[Dman]

Looks like Suzuki wants to test the market. Berardino reports that contract talks fizzle fast.

 

http://www.twincities.com/sports/ci_26188736/twins-kurt-suzuki-contract-talks-fizzled-fast

 

This is Suzuki's last shot a good contract. It is easy to understand why he would want to test the market.

 

It certainly doesn't appear Suzuki will sign a reasonable extension this summer. The Twins need to take the best offer and try to sign him in the winter.

 

Not surprising at all. I would do the same thing if I were him. He has a chance to cash in on an All Star year with a weak FA class of catchers this year. He could end up in a bidding war and come out exceptionally well. He just needs to stay focused and not get hurt and he will get three years at 6, 7 or 8 million per year.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Looks like Suzuki wants to test the market. Berardino reports that contract talks fizzle fast.

 

http://www.twincities.com/sports/ci_26188736/twins-kurt-suzuki-contract-talks-fizzled-fast

 

This is Suzuki's last shot a good contract. It is easy to understand why he would want to test the market.

 

It certainly doesn't appear Suzuki will sign a reasonable extension this summer. The Twins need to take the best offer and try to sign him in the winter.

 

Interesting. If that article is accurate - and there's no reason to believe it isn't - then it sounds like trading Suzuki is the prudent move. If he won't sign a reasonable extension before the season ends, there's absolutely no reason not to trade him in the next ten days.