Trade opportunities -players dropping like flies

[Brock Beauchamp]

I like Dozier, and I think there is almost a zero percent chance they trade him because they like him too... but could this be selling high? Should we be a little less picky about what return we demand?

 

In short, no. Dozier is probably going to be a bit streaky, as he relies on power for a large portion of his OPS.

 

But his walk rate is great, his defense is very good, and he has been pretty consistent since tweaking his swing with Bruno. He's the type of player you keep around as a complementary piece unless you're blown away with an offer.

 

Now if Rosario kills it and the Twins magically don't have room in the OF, then you consider trading Dozier... But without another second basemen, you're just filling one hole and opening another if you trade Dozier so the return better be substantial.

[Boom Boom]

The market is setting up perfectly for the Twins to trade Suzuki. I hope they don't fool themselves into thinking that a) they're a playoff factor and Suzuki will continue to hit way above his career marks.

[Otto von Ballpark]

He's pretty darn close to establishing himself as a top 10 2B, if he hasn't already.

 

What's a top-10 2B worth? Dozier ranks 7th in 2B fWAR this year, behind Altuve, Murphy, and Dee Gordon, tied with Zobrist, and roughly just a half-win ahead of Scooter Gennett.

 

Last year, Dozier ranked 8th in 2B fWAR, just behind Murphy again and just ahead of Neil Walker and Marco Scutaro. (If you throw out his first two months and prorate the rest of his 2013 season, he'd probably jump to fifth or sixth, right around Kipnis.)

 

Seems like top-10 is a lot less meaningful than top-5, and Dozier seems at best on the fringes of that distinction, with no record of (or likelihood of?) spikes up to 1 or 2 occasionally. Definitely good and useful, especially while cheap, but not elite and possibly worth surrendering for an elite prospect, or a combination of very good prospects.

[gunnarthor]

What's a top-10 2B worth? Dozier ranks 7th in 2B fWAR this year, behind Altuve, Murphy, and Dee Gordon, tied with Zobrist, and roughly just a half-win ahead of Scooter Gennett.

 

Last year, Dozier ranked 8th in 2B fWAR, just behind Murphy again and just ahead of Neil Walker and Marco Scutaro. (If you throw out his first two months and prorate the rest of his 2013 season, he'd probably jump to fifth or sixth, right around Kipnis.)

 

Seems like top-10 is a lot less meaningful than top-5, and Dozier seems at best on the fringes of that distinction, with no record of (or likelihood of?) spikes up to 1 or 2 occasionally. Definitely good and useful, especially while cheap, but not elite and possibly worth surrendering for an elite prospect, or a combination of very good prospects.

Depends on what the other team thinks of him. If they think he's a consistent 3.5 WAR guy over the next 4.5 years (and he was better than that last year and this year), then they are trading for a pretty cheap 15 WAR. That brings back a big return.

[Willihammer]

If the Twins are entertaining the idea of trading Dozier for more prospects then I'm done. He's a good player and at 27 should be plenty young enough to be part of The Next Winning Twins Team. To trade him for prospects (and I doubt the Twins will, but if they did), that says to me they are not even trying for a 5-6 year rebuild, which is long enough, but a 10 year rebuild which just makes you a losing franchise.

[jorgenswest]

The Twins can't wait to long on Suzuki. There will be other guys available.

 

Want an elite pitch framer? Jose Molina and Rene Rivera could be available. Cardinals could be a fit.

 

Have some money? How about Miguel Montero? Dodgers could be a fit.

 

Want some team control? Jason Castro could fit the Blue Jays or Dodgers.

 

Carlos Ruiz should be playing again after the break. He would be an inexpensive short term buy. The Orioles could be a fit.

 

Someone will give A.J. an opportunity.

 

If the prospect cost is reasonable, Kurt Suzuki would be a better fit in some of these places.

 

Can the Twins leverage enough return without pricing him out of the market? Might the Twins be willing to take a little less from the Orioles or Cards knowing that they would not retain Suzuki in 2015?

[gunnarthor]

If the Twins are entertaining the idea of trading Dozier for more prospects then I'm done. He's a good player and at 27 should be plenty young enough to be part of The Next Winning Twins Team. To trade him for prospects (and I doubt the Twins will, but if they did), that says to me they are not even trying for a 5-6 year rebuild, which is long enough, but a 10 year rebuild which just makes you a losing franchise.

I'm not sure that's true. What if Baltimore was willing to give up Dylan Bundy? With Rosario, Santana and Polanco, the Twins should get decent production from second base after Dozier is gone and Bundy could anchor a rotation for years. Not saying that would happen but that's the type of trade the Twins would have to make and it wouldn't greatly affect the time table of the Sano/Buxton/Meyer foundation. But they shouldn't trade Dozier for a low A prospect, IMHO.

[Otto von Ballpark]

In short, no. Dozier is probably going to be a bit streaky, as he relies on power for a large portion of his OPS.

 

But his walk rate is great, his defense is very good, and he has been pretty consistent since tweaking his swing with Bruno. He's the type of player you keep around as a complementary piece unless you're blown away with an offer.

 

Now if Rosario kills it and the Twins magically don't have room in the OF, then you consider trading Dozier... But without another second basemen, you're just filling one hole and opening another if you trade Dozier so the return better be substantial.

 

Normally, I'd be right there with you. A player with Dozier's current numbers, position, and contract status is a clear keeper.

 

But that streakiness and power reliance is what has me worried a little. If his HR and BB drop just a hair further (not unlikely given the nature of his power and the recent addition of bonus walks in conjunction with said power), he's basically Trevor Plouffe at the plate this year, high-90's OPS+. That kind of player can be useful, particularly cheap and up the middle, but his trade value would decrease quite a bit.

 

That said, it's only really an important distinction if somebody was willing to pay for him now like he was a true-talent 120 OPS+ 2B ("blown away with an offer"), and that is probably unlikely given the facts above.

[twinsfan34]

Suzuki doesn't profile as that good a hitter. His value is at an all-time high.

 

Yes. You sell high. Billy Beane, etc...or anybody in anything, you sell high. And the thing is, he's a FA at the end of the year. Handle him right and you can go back after him after the year (if he goes to STL). So he gets to play in a positive clubhouse, a chance at a WS ring, and then can still come back to MN if he wants to. This is something you have to do.

[jorgenswest]

The Twins will keep Dozier. No one is going to blow them away with an offer. He isn't going to be the game changer for a team in the playoffs. Elite starting pitching can be a game changer. Those guys will get a return beyond their value.

[Willihammer]

I'm not sure that's true. What if Baltimore was willing to give up Dylan Bundy? With Rosario, Santana and Polanco, the Twins should get decent production from second base after Dozier is gone and Bundy could anchor a rotation for years. Not saying that would happen but that's the type of trade the Twins would have to make and it wouldn't greatly affect the time table of the Sano/Buxton/Meyer foundation. But they shouldn't trade Dozier for a low A prospect, IMHO.

 

I wouldn't trade him for Bundy. Aside from further delaying The Next Winning Twins Team, I don't think its fair value, and ... its not 2012 anymore. The Twins have restocked the cupboard with front of the rotation pitching talents (granted some of them are still in the low minors). I wouldn't trade a cornerstone guy for one more at this point.

[tobi0040]

The Twins will keep Dozier. No one is going to blow them away with an offer. He isn't going to be the game changer for a team in the playoffs. Elite starting pitching can be a game changer. Those guys will get a return beyond their value.

 

I don't see it either, frankly. I think it is more likely we extend him.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I wouldn't trade him for Bundy. Aside from further delaying The Next Winning Twins Team, I don't think its fair value, and ... its not 2012 anymore. The Twins have restocked the cupboard with front of the rotation pitching talents (granted some of them are still in the low minors). I wouldn't trade a cornerstone guy for one more at this point.

 

I'd add to it that Bundy is recovering from TJ right now. Got to think his stock is a bit lower. I'd be fine with trading Dozier, but the return would have to be enormous... And Bundy probably isn't enough. Dozier is a conerstone guy. This team will be cometitive during his time here, I think you keep him.

[tobi0040]

I wouldn't trade him for Bundy. Aside from further delaying The Next Winning Twins Team, I don't think its fair value, and ... its not 2012 anymore. The Twins have restocked the cupboard with front of the rotation pitching talents (granted some of them are still in the low minors). I wouldn't trade a cornerstone guy for one more at this point.

 

I would at least send people to scout him and see how his stuff now compares to 2012. The guy was the top prospect in baseball pre-TJ. He had 30 IP without a run and 40 k's that year in low A. 57 IP with a 2.84 ERA and 66 K the next in 2012.

 

This year he only has 22 IP this year in low and high A. In the 15 IP in low A he has a .6 ERA with 22 K.

[Siehbiscuit]

Don't trade just for the sake of trading. Dozier isn't elite, but he is definitely in the next tier. If Dozier can mantain his level of play into next year this conversation will fit the Twins better. He is still under control till 2018, so even small market teams that are contending would be options. More importantly, the guys like Rosario, Polanco and Santana are closer to becoming everyday options at the MLB level.

 

The Twins could do this now and slide Escobar to 2nd base (Santana at SS) and survive. But whether its now or next, 2nd basemen of Dozier's caliber are rare and will demand a nice haul of prospects.

[twinsfan34]

One thing on Dozier...no idea the market for him. Plus his value to us (blue collar guy who buys into the Twins idea, loves MN, hunting, fishing, etc type) might be higher than to potential suitors.

 

But will he ever hit over .250 as a hitter? Does that matter? Is he Dan Uggla with speed?

 

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/u/ugglada01.shtml

[Shane Wahl]

If one loves Suzuki so much, why not get something for him now and then sign him in the offseason. There is no other smart move to make with regard to Suzuki. Sure, there is no guarantee then, but that should hardly matter if getting a top 10ish prospect from the Cardinals could be at stake.

 

Willingham, Morales, Suzuki, Correia, Fien, and Duensing would be the six I would be looking to trade.

[tobi0040]

If one loves Suzuki so much, why not get something for him now and then sign him in the offseason. There is no other smart move to make with regard to Suzuki. Sure, there is no guarantee then, but that should hardly matter if getting a top 10ish prospect from the Cardinals could be at stake.

 

Willingham, Morales, Suzuki, Correia, Fien, and Duensing would be the six I would be looking to trade.

 

I like your list. I would say Corriea and Willingham absolutely need to be traded. Correia would be an upgrade in the rotation for a few contenders, especially since all of the injuries. At a minimum, someone would put Willingham on the bench. I would also say by July 31, I would like to see Suzuki traded or extended, one or the other.

[ashbury]

Willingham, Morales, Suzuki, Correia, Fien, and Duensing would be the six I would be looking to trade.

 

The first five you name have a chance to bring back a prospect, even if the ceiling is "ML utility player for a few seasons". If you include Duensing, he remains the cliched sweetener to some other deal, and then I suggest most of the other guys in the bullpen with significant service time, namely Guerrier, Burton, and Swarzak, should be on the table as well. A team that likes FIP may give Swarzak a look, while one that likes ERA would lean toward Duensing. A team needing a short term solution might like Guerrier's numbers.

 

The Dodgers might give us another Sulbaran for Burton.

 

Fien does belong in your first list because his numbers across the board look strong and he might fetch an actual prospect - he's the one guy a team might acquire both because they need him and they don't want a rival to get him cheaply.

 

I don't mean to hold a fire sale and dispose of all the bullpen. We have young guys ready but not an infinite supply. (Until the recent draft of hordes of relief arms starts to come through the pipeline. )

[TheLeviathan]

I don't mean to hold a fire sale and dispose of all the bullpen. We have young guys ready but not an infinite supply. (Until the recent draft of hordes of relief arms starts to come through the pipeline. )

 

One thing that strengthens your argument as well is that Ryan's best trait may be his ability to build bullpens in a cheap, sneaky, and very effective way.

[Siehbiscuit]

Why does no one mention moving Perkins. On a potential 85-90 loss team, couldn't Fien or someone else be given a shot to be the closer? This was hashed out last year as well, but other than Perkins MN ties, why not consider moving a great closer? If Burdi is available next year or even 2016 to take the role, is it worth getting a good to great haul for a multiple time All-Star closer?

 

The trades of Dozier (age 27), Perkins (31) and Suzuki (31) could add a couple top 25 types and 3-4 more top 100 type prospects.

[Shane Wahl]

The first five you name have a chance to bring back a prospect, even if the ceiling is "ML utility player for a few seasons". If you include Duensing, he remains the cliched sweetener to some other deal, and then I suggest most of the other guys in the bullpen with significant service time, namely Guerrier, Burton, and Swarzak, should be on the table as well. A team that likes FIP may give Swarzak a look, while one that likes ERA would lean toward Duensing. A team needing a short term solution might like Guerrier's numbers.

 

The Dodgers might give us another Sulbaran for Burton.

 

Fien does belong in your first list because his numbers across the board look strong and he might fetch an actual prospect - he's the one guy a team might acquire both because they need him and they don't want a rival to get him cheaply.

 

I don't mean to hold a fire sale and dispose of all the bullpen. We have young guys ready but not an infinite supply. (Until the recent draft of hordes of relief arms starts to come through the pipeline. )

 

I wasn't even thinking about Burton or Swarzak as getting anything in return. Swarzak was only serviceable as a long relief/mop up guy and Burton is done. Guerrier should be added to the list, at the bottom with Duensing. I team might think that Duensing could be worth some kind of lower-level prospect. I don't think he is going to be a sweetener (!) at all. In order of usefulness elsewhere I would rank them Suzuki-Fien-Willingham-Morales-Correia-Duensing-Guerrier.

[diehardtwinsfan]

The trades of Dozier (age 27), Perkins (31) and Suzuki (31) could add a couple top 25 types and 3-4 more top 100 type prospects.

 

If they could add that, they'd all have been traded right now. The Twins would have 4 or 5 guys in the top 25 and a dozen in the top 100 at that point.

 

Dozier could definitely bring in a nice haul, but I'm a bit more skeptical on the other two. Perks' value dropped a bit with an extension that paid him more. However, after just signing one, I have a tough time believing he's on the table, and I doubt any GM would be willing to wow Ryan with something that works. They didn't last year when he was more valuable, I dont' see it happening this season.

 

Zuke, I think could fetch a top 100 guy and maybe a high ceiling lower spec, but I'll be surprised if someone sends a top 25 guy, much less a second spec. Maybe I'm undervaluing catchers... I suppose if Butera and Doumit fetched something nice...

[Shane Wahl]

Why does no one mention moving Perkins. On a potential 85-90 loss team, couldn't Fien or someone else be given a shot to be the closer? This was hashed out last year as well, but other than Perkins MN ties, why not consider moving a great closer? If Burdi is available next year or even 2016 to take the role, is it worth getting a good to great haul for a multiple time All-Star closer?

 

The trades of Dozier (age 27), Perkins (31) and Suzuki (31) could add a couple top 25 types and 3-4 more top 100 type prospects.

 

How far do we want to really push even a .500 Twins team back? 2017?

[Otto von Ballpark]

I'd add to it that Bundy is recovering from TJ right now. Got to think his stock is a bit lower. I'd be fine with trading Dozier, but the return would have to be enormous... And Bundy probably isn't enough. Dozier is a conerstone guy. This team will be cometitive during his time here, I think you keep him.

 

Obviously one would have to evaluate first-hand, but Bundy was still ranked 15-20 on top 100 prospect lists this year, even after missing the previous year to injury. He was of course #2 or #4 and already debuted in MLB at age 19 (albeit rushed) before the injury -- I don't think the Twins have that kind of front of the rotation pitching talent! Very few teams ever do.

 

Not quite sure what "cornerstone guy" is, but Dozier has been a ~4.5 fWAR player from June 2013 until today. That's pretty good, but how projectable is it? His complete history suggests he is more likely a ~4.5 WAR peak, maybe ~3 WAR prime average player (Uggla, Stephen Drew, Kipnis?), rather than a ~4.5 WAR prime average player (Kinsler, Brian Roberts). I think of the latter more as "cornerstones", guys capable of making an occasional run at Cano, peak Utley/Pedroia, etc. as the best at the position, and maybe even commanding elite prospects as trade returns under the right circumstances.

 

I have to think the Orioles would laugh at such a proposal (Bundy for Dozier), not as loudly as the Bud Norris offer, but still, it probably suggest the deal could be pretty good for the Twins.

[Otto von Ballpark]

The trades of Dozier (age 27), Perkins (31) and Suzuki (31) could add a couple top 25 types and 3-4 more top 100 type prospects.

 

Care to name the last closer to fetch a top 25 prospect? Or the last Dozier comparable to do so? Not to mention the last Suzuki comparable to fetch a top 100 guy?

[ScrapTheNickname]

Suzuki doesn't profile as that good a hitter. His value is at an all-time high.

 

My heart goes with Kelly Vance's comment (keep Suzuki, he's a .300 hitter, and we have no one else who is ready) but my head goes with stringer bell (we know Suzuki is NOT a .300 hitter, his average, before the season ends, will most likely drop sharply), so this is a classic case of trading while the value of the commodity is at its peak.

 

Of course this still doesn't answer who would be Suzuki's replacement. So, maybe, even though he's actually just a .250 hitter wearing a disguise, we should keep him ... I'll be unsurprised if the Twins go either way.

[Mike Sixel]

How far do we want to really push even a .500 Twins team back? 2017?

 

Given that they are on pace (give or take 2 or so games) to lose 90 games again, how far do you expect them to get next year? In 2016, Perkins will be 33.....how LIKELY is it that he's elite still? I think you have to listen on anyone over 30. You don't give him away, but if they can get a potential every day player for him, you need to at least consider it.

[TheDean]

My heart goes with Kelly Vance's comment (keep Suzuki, he's a .300 hitter, and we have no one else who is ready) but my head goes with stringer bell (we know Suzuki is NOT a .300 hitter, his average, before the season ends, will most likely drop sharply), so this is a classic case of trading while the value of the commodity is at its peak.

 

Of course this still doesn't answer who would be Suzuki's replacement. So, maybe, even though he's actually just a .250 hitter wearing a disguise, we should keep him ... I'll be unsurprised if the Twins go either way.

 

It's already been mentioned here before... but it's almost too enticing to think of what peak-level, career-numbers, highly-respected Suzuki could fetch midseason in a market desperate for ML-caliber catchers. We know that concussed, poor-defense Doumit fetched an upside prospect (#28 pick of 2011 Draft), and good-riddance Butera fetched Nunez through an upside pitcher.

 

All of that was said earlier in the thread... but as sad as I'll be to see one of my favorite 2014 Twins go, I am hoping I'll be impressed by the haul. Hopefully one that represents how much better I think Suzuki is than the previous two Twins catchers to be traded.

[ScrapTheNickname]

Suzuki is only 30 years old. He has a small, lithe body. He doesn't get dinged and bruised and kapowed like Mauer did. Makes me wonder if he could be someone you stick with for 5 or 8 years, as your guy. (I don't know enough about stats to know if he's actually a good catcher though; he seems to block well, and frame well, and he seems to throw okay ...). And of course, as I said just now, he's a lifetime .257 hitter, and his averages have been going down since he was 25, so is this year's .307 average an aberration, or has he figured something out? These are the secrets that dictate his value.