Article: Who's Got Next?

[Seth Stohs]

You can view the page at http://www.twinsdaily.com/content.php/3117-Who-s-Got-Next

[Tuba]

Lets just take a second to appreciate that we aren't choosing between Cole De Vries, PJ Walters, and Pedro Hernandez.

[twinstalker]

Lets just take a second to appreciate that we aren't choosing between Cole De Vries, PJ Walters, and Pedro Hernandez.

Amen, brother.

[h2oface]

I find it interesting that a starter in AAA is "struggling" when they pitch to a line of "three runs on five hits and three walks in 5.2 innings" (Johnson - one out away from what is touted as a quality start for the Twins, and the same line would get a nice headline and it would be reported that they "gave the team a chance to win"). I also think that Pino and Achter will get the Slama treatment and never really get a shot with the Twins, but make for good politics and a winning AAA team for the Rochester fans.

 

Do Twins' fans really want to see anyone other than Meyer and May? Is the front office going to wait until they are at the end of their pitch count for the year or give them an opportunity with fresher young arms?

[blindeke]

I also think that Pino and Achter will get the Slama treatment and never really get a shot with the Twins, but make for good politics and a winning AAA team for the Rochester fans.

 

[sigh] Yeah, I see this happening too.

[kblack1011]

The problem for Pino and Achter is not being on the 40 man roster. They have competition that are putting up similar stats and are already on the roster, so it make it difficult for them to get call up.

[Thrylos]

The starting rotation has been very impressive

 

I think that the most accurate statement is: Phil Hughes has been very impressive.

 

Including Hughes, as a collective the rotation has been mediocre to bad (4.86 ERA, 1.436 WHIP, 5.3 K/9, a .286/.336/.443 opponent batting line etc). I know that mediocre to bad is a step up from hideous to awful that was the last few seasons, but by no means it is "impressive" or "solid".

 

I'd replace Deduno and Correia with May and Meyer right away, Burton and Guerrier with Pino (yes, I still see him as a reliever) and Achter, Theilbar with Kris Johnson and maybe Swarzak with Correia (or Darnell)

[Thrylos]

The problem for Pino and Achter is not being on the 40 man roster. They have competition that are putting up similar stats and are already on the roster, so it make it difficult for them to get call up.

 

Nobody is putting stats similar to Pino or Achter. I suspect that Dedudo's, Burton's, Guerrier's spots (to begin with, not to mention the Colabellos of the world) would be enough

[bobonewsome]

Meter is still on a pitch count, according to his manager. I think he said 85 when he was on 1500 espn

[TKGuy]

Lets just take a second to appreciate that we aren't choosing between Cole De Vries, PJ Walters, and Pedro Hernandez.

 

Just that statement alone says progress

[Shane Wahl]

I think that the most accurate statement is: Phil Hughes has been very impressive.

 

Including Hughes, as a collective the rotation has been mediocre to bad (4.86 ERA, 1.436 WHIP, 5.3 K/9, a .286/.336/.443 opponent batting line etc). I know that mediocre to bad is a step up from hideous to awful that was the last few seasons, but by no means it is "impressive" or "solid".

 

I'd replace Deduno and Correia with May and Meyer right away, Burton and Guerrier with Pino (yes, I still see him as a reliever) and Achter, Theilbar with Kris Johnson and maybe Swarzak with Correia (or Darnell)

 

Pretty much agree with your moves here, though we know Meyer has only about 90 or so innings left and I wouldn't want him to just be done in mid-August.

 

I like that Correia's ERA is down to 5.29 and we note progress, somehow.

[Seth Stohs]

I think that the most accurate statement is: Phil Hughes has been very impressive.

 

Including Hughes, as a collective the rotation has been mediocre to bad (4.86 ERA, 1.436 WHIP, 5.3 K/9, a .286/.336/.443 opponent batting line etc). I know that mediocre to bad is a step up from hideous to awful that was the last few seasons, but by no means it is "impressive" or "solid".

 

I'd replace Deduno and Correia with May and Meyer right away, Burton and Guerrier with Pino (yes, I still see him as a reliever) and Achter, Theilbar with Kris Johnson and maybe Swarzak with Correia (or Darnell)

 

I just edited the sentence you were disagreeing with to clarify that I was referring to the Red Wings pitching staff being very impressive.

[tobi0040]

I think that the most accurate statement is: Phil Hughes has been very impressive.

 

Including Hughes, as a collective the rotation has been mediocre to bad (4.86 ERA, 1.436 WHIP, 5.3 K/9, a .286/.336/.443 opponent batting line etc). I know that mediocre to bad is a step up from hideous to awful that was the last few seasons, but by no means it is "impressive" or "solid".

 

I'd replace Deduno and Correia with May and Meyer right away, Burton and Guerrier with Pino (yes, I still see him as a reliever) and Achter, Theilbar with Kris Johnson and maybe Swarzak with Correia (or Darnell)

 

The future is now. May and Meyer are upgrades now and into the future. I agree, they should replace Deduno and KC. Achter needs to get a shot as well. Johnson is 29 and Pino is 30, so they should be viewed as relief or starter depth, i.e. come up if we have a rash of injuries for a game or two, double-headers, etc.

 

I don't really see where KC fits. If we can't get anything in return for him, we should DFA him. He is not helping us in the rotation blocking someone younger and better.

 

I think Swarzak is perfect where we have him. A long reliever/pen guy with a 3.28 ERA last year and 3.85 this year is a useful piece.

[Seth Stohs]

It is funny that even after giving up just one run over his last two starts (admittedly against a couple of teams from the weak AL East) that people still want Correia replaced. I'm not saying I think it'll last but it should hold off for right now and resume when he's pitching poorly again.

[Steven Buhr]

Yeah rushing to release Correia just when he's starting to pitch well makes no sense at all. Even if the plan is to bring up Meyer and/or May mid-year, why would you release a veteran starting pitcher just when he's beginning to build some trade value?

[Lakeside]

I think that the most accurate statement is: Phil Hughes has been very impressive.

 

Including Hughes, as a collective the rotation has been mediocre to bad (4.86 ERA, 1.436 WHIP, 5.3 K/9, a .286/.336/.443 opponent batting line etc). I know that mediocre to bad is a step up from hideous to awful that was the last few seasons, but by no means it is "impressive" or "solid".

 

I'd replace Deduno and Correia with May and Meyer right away, Burton and Guerrier with Pino (yes, I still see him as a reliever) and Achter, Theilbar with Kris Johnson and maybe Swarzak with Correia (or Darnell)

 

I don't think it needs to be this wholesale. How about May for Deduno now. Trade Correia to a NL contender in July and get something for him while at that time bringing up Meyer. That puts your rotation at Hughes, Nolasco, Gibson, May, and Meyer going into August/September. If we can be within 3-4 games at that time we will have a shot.

 

Relievers. . . I'm of the opinion Burton just doesn't have the movement anymore. Replace him with Achter or Tonkin. While Guerrier has experience, maybe Pino would be better. Finally, I beleive that Swarzak still has it and will find it. . .if not, then maybe Pino, Johnson, or Darnell replace him in the long spot.

 

Players. . . I also think the offense will need a little more pop in the stretch. How about Rosario stepping into CF full time with Santana at short?

[beyondclarity]

Do Twins' fans really want to see anyone other than Meyer and May?

 

 

Yes, Darnell. Let's not forget he's a lefty and was a 6th round pick.

[Mike Sixel]

I agree with Seth....let's ride KC while he's hot. The KC situation will settle itself sometime in the next month or so. Either they are in or out of contention. Either he has pitched well, or not. The combination of those two things will determine what happens with him.

 

Deduno, otoh, this should be his last shot. If the AAA guys aren't better than what Deduno is doing right now, then they aren't really all that, are they?

 

I also don't get the Achter treatment. ONE of the reasons to use young players as RP is to have the freedom to send them up and down, and not be paranoid about losing them.....but the Twins just don't seem to trust young RP at all (or maybe they've just not developed any).

[tobi0040]

It is funny that even after giving up just one run over his last two starts (admittedly against a couple of teams from the weak AL East) that people still want Correia replaced. I'm not saying I think it'll last but it should hold off for right now and resume when he's pitching poorly again.

 

Kevin has 3 k's in those 11 IP over his last two starts. That type of BABIP is not sustainable and we know what Kevin is at this point. His ERA on the year is 5.29, career 4.53 mostly NL. He is 33 now and not part of the future. The only thing we could hope for is a trade, but the market for him as a free agent was not a booming market and I am guessing we made phone calls after his 4.29 ERA last year with no one that would bite, even with only one year and $5M left on his contract.

 

I personally believe May and Meyer over KC will help this team win more games now, and obviously Kevin will not be part of this team next year. So it is inevitable at this point. We may as well accept it and move on.

[Steven Buhr]

Yeah and just think of how much fun it will be around here after the Twins release Correia and he gets picked up and is productive for another team down the stretch while the Twins got nothing for him. Just reading all the "Twinss FO is stupid" comments is always so entertaining.

[John Bonnes]

3.6 H/9?

 

3.6?!!!!?

 

Are we sure Achter is throwing a regulation baseball?

[Halsey Hall]

Isn't that the truth. With Correia you know you've got a 50-50 pitcher. There's going to be some clunkers and some good games. The pitcher no one seems to mention, who IMO is questionable is Nolasco. I didn't much care for him this spring, (he's got an attitude). He seems to get thru 5 innings and just goes out and throws after that, as if I've got the money and done what I wanted. I just don't see him bearing down and giving the effort after 5. I'd move him first if there were any takers.

It is funny that even after giving up just one run over his last two starts (admittedly against a couple of teams from the weak AL East) that people still want Correia replaced. I'm not saying I think it'll last but it should hold off for right now and resume when he's pitching poorly again.

[John Bonnes]

Re: Correia - I think it's reached the point where maybe complaining about him has just become a bad habit that we might want to reevaluate. Since that awful home start vs Boston where I legitimately thought he was one start from demotion:

 

6 GS, 36 IP (or 6 per start), 3.50 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 41 hits (his biggest weakness) and a 20/4 K/BB ratio.

 

He's never going to be an ace, but he's basically had one clunker, 3 gems and two that were good enough.

 

For that matter, I'm a little hesitant to come down hard on Deduno right now too, and I was as angry at him as anyone could be on Saturday. He's basically just had two really bad starts in a row after a string of pretty good games, if memory serves. But it sure feels like it's time to see May up here. (And I'm a little worried that Deduno might be hurt or something. He was just SO bad.)

 

And for the record, I have no problem with giving Darnell a spot start and then sending him back. In an ideal world, there would be room for him (and Pino) in the rotation. There isn't....yet.

[Beezer07]

I find it interesting that a starter in AAA is "struggling" when they pitch to a line of "three runs on five hits and three walks in 5.2 innings" (Johnson - one out away from what is touted as a quality start for the Twins, and the same line would get a nice headline and it would be reported that they "gave the team a chance to win"). I also think that Pino and Achter will get the Slama treatment and never really get a shot with the Twins, but make for good politics and a winning AAA team for the Rochester fans.

 

Do Twins' fans really want to see anyone other than Meyer and May? Is the front office going to wait until they are at the end of their pitch count for the year or give them an opportunity with fresher young arms?

 

Part of this is undoubtedly because ML lineups are considerably better than AAA lineups. I want to see a variety of pitchers, any of whom can/should replace Deduno.

[Physics Guy]

It is funny that even after giving up just one run over his last two starts (admittedly against a couple of teams from the weak AL East) that people still want Correia replaced. I'm not saying I think it'll last but it should hold off for right now and resume when he's pitching poorly again.

 

I'm going to re-post my comment in the Correia thread:

 

Thought I'd revisit this after tonight's start. Correia will most likely make it much longer than most are/were hoping for. Although it's pretty hard to complain about his last 6 starts.

 

36 IP, 41 H, 4 BB, 20 K, 3.50 ERA and 1.25 WHIP

 

He's not going anywhere unless,

A) he puts up several straight stinkers and May forces the Twins' hands or

he continues with what he has done the last month and garners something in trade.

 

Edit: Sorry John, your post came in after I started reading the thread.

[John Kelsey]

3.6 H/9?

 

3.6?!!!!?

 

Are we sure Achter is throwing a regulation baseball?

 

This jumped out at me as well. What does Achter do to get hitters out?

 

I've heard he doesn't throw hard and that would explain why he was a 46th round pick, so what is he doing so effectively?

[Physics Guy]

3.6 H/9?

 

3.6?!!!!?

 

Are we sure Achter is throwing a regulation baseball?

 

Yes, this is absurd. To put it another way, he gets over seven outs per hit.

[tobi0040]

Re: Correia - I think it's reached the point where maybe complaining about him has just become a bad habit that we might want to reevaluate. Since that awful home start vs Boston where I legitimately thought he was one start from demotion:

 

6 GS, 36 IP (or 6 per start), 3.50 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 41 hits (his biggest weakness) and a 20/4 K/BB ratio.

 

He's never going to be an ace, but he's basically had one clunker, 3 gems and two that were good enough.

 

For that matter, I'm a little hesitant to come down hard on Deduno right now too, and I was as angry at him as anyone could be on Saturday. He's basically just had two really bad starts in a row after a string of pretty good games, if memory serves. But it sure feels like it's time to see May up here. (And I'm a little worried that Deduno might be hurt or something. He was just SO bad.)

 

And for the record, I have no problem with giving Darnell a spot start and then sending him back. In an ideal world, there would be room for him (and Pino) in the rotation. There isn't....yet.

 

I think a logical discussion about Correa has the following two questions:

 

-Are we a contending team this year?

-If Yes, is Correa going to be an upgrade over May or Meyer right now?

 

If either one of those questions is a no (I think both are). Then Correia on this team only makes sense if we want to give Corriea an extension because we view him as someone in our rotation next year and beyond. Or if we think his trade value is going to spike for some reason, at 33 and in a season where he has a mid 5.00's ERA in mid June.

 

I get another a few more no's.

 

I am in the camp that we have better options right now that will help us win more games this year and the fact that those are guys with a future here is a huge bonus. So this notion that Kevin is here until he pitches his way out doesn't make any sense to me.

[drivlikejehu]

Re: Correia - I think it's reached the point where maybe complaining about him has just become a bad habit that we might want to reevaluate. Since that awful home start vs Boston where I legitimately thought he was one start from demotion:

 

6 GS, 36 IP (or 6 per start), 3.50 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 41 hits (his biggest weakness) and a 20/4 K/BB ratio.

 

There is a lot of variation during a season and we shouldn't get too worked up over limited stretches, good or bad. The question is - what can we expect going forward?

 

Deduno has an xFIP as a starter of 4.81, and that's the most charitable way of looking at his performance. His career numbers as a starter aren't great either - xFIP of 4.42, ERA of 4.51. There is no particular reason he should be in the rotation over someone with long-term relevance.

 

The issue with Correia isn't whether he's still a decent 5th starter - it's whether he gives the team its best chance to win. His xFIP is 4.59... if May replaces Deduno, maybe that is better than the alternatives. But if it isn't, a change should be made. Correia shouldn't have a special claim to a rotation spot.

[jorgenswest]

Part of being ready is getting through at least 6 innings. It makes a difference on the burden in the bullpen. The Rochester pitchers have had some trouble due to walks or pitch counts. If one of them replaces Deduno, the burden on the bullpen wouldn't necessarily shift because Deduno can't go deep either.

 

Below are the number of starts since May 1 and how often the pitchers went 6. I left out the April numbers because weather and early season pitch counts make it very difficult to go 6 innings.

 

Darnell 2 of 7

Meyer 2 of 8

Johnson 4 of 8

May 6 of 9

 

I think it has been reported that Meyer is on an 80 pitch count limit. Maybe that is to preserve innings for the majors and would be lifted if on the Twins

 

For comparison, Correia has gone at least 6 innings in 9 of his 14 starts and 5 of his last 6.