Article: Who's Got Next?

[Rosterman]

The 40-man roster is not a question. You can put Pelfrey on the 60-man. You can pas both Deduno and Florimon thru waivers and they should clear. In the wings you have Parmelee who could go thru waivers.

 

Anyone you add has to have the ability to stay on the 40-man so you don't lose them, except perhaps Pino. If Pibno can succeed as a starter, you keep him around for the season so others develop. If he is okay, you can consider him a bullpen choice who can also start, which means you clear any of the fodder from the pne that includes Burton and Guerrier.

 

If you do add Romero or Achter or Meyer, they have to stay on the 40-man. That is the biggest hurdle. Findng 40-man spots and rotating guys like Farris and Bernier and Ramirez and Rodriguez and Aaron Thompson thru is not the question.

 

At least no one is mentioning Diamond yet!

[Monkeypaws]

Correia don't get no respect.

 

 

Deduno's high-wire act is catching up to him; I'm pretty sure he could be replaced by any of the leading candidates.

[Seth Stohs]

I personally believe May and Meyer over KC will help this team win more games now, and obviously Kevin will not be part of this team next year. So it is inevitable at this point. We may as well accept it and move on.

 

many of us may believe that, but we don't know that they will help win more games. We don't know that they would come up and pitch great, or if they would come up and post their own 5+ ERA. It's easy to assume that all prospects will come up and do well, or at least better than the veteran, but that's now always true.

[JB_Iowa]

many of us may believe that, but we don't know that they will help win more games. We don't know that they would come up and pitch great, or if they would come up and post their own 5+ ERA. It's easy to assume that all prospects will come up and do well, or at least better than the veteran, but that's now always true.

 

I agree with that. It is pretty clear from the last couple of games that Correia has learned something about PITCHING (as opposed to throwing) over the years. He frustrates me terribly when there are 2 on in the first inning but at least lately, he has escaped.

 

I think it comes down to the value of getting May/Meyer experience in MLB vs. trying to win this year.

 

At this point (while they are still trying to win this year), keeping KC in the rotation makes sense as long as he pitches like he has the last couple of games. A month from now, this team may be in an entirely different place. "Contending" may seem hopeless. KC may have fallen apart again -- or he may have built good trade value.

 

I just can't see doing anything with him now. In July??? Whole different story. And really, that would still be time to get May (and maybe Meyers) some time at the mlb level.

[Trevor0333]

Maybe Slama never would have stuck & I don't truly believe they missed on him. However I think teams do a real disservice to players who are older minor leaguers who seem to have figured it out. They make them prove it that much more clinging to them as depth rather than sending them to a team needing a starter due to injury or performance. Then the players get their shot 2 years later after losing the bit of magic they found followed by the team saying "see, I told you so" when they don't succeed.

 

Moving a Deduno & Corriea for young A ball guys letting Pino & Achter see if it carries makes sense. Especially with the Meyer, May, Darnell etc being able replacements if they fail.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Part of being ready is getting through at least 6 innings. It makes a difference on the burden in the bullpen. The Rochester pitchers have had some trouble due to walks or pitch counts. If one of them replaces Deduno, the burden on the bullpen wouldn't necessarily shift because Deduno can't go deep either.

 

Below are the number of starts since May 1 and how often the pitchers went 6. I left out the April numbers because weather and early season pitch counts make it very difficult to go 6 innings.

 

Darnell 2 of 7

Meyer 2 of 8

Johnson 4 of 8

May 6 of 9

 

I think it has been reported that Meyer is on an 80 pitch count limit. Maybe that is to preserve innings for the majors and would be lifted if on the Twins

 

For comparison, Correia has gone at least 6 innings in 9 of his 14 starts and 5 of his last 6.

 

Replacing Deduno could shift bullpen burden by putting Deduno back in the pen as a long man. Not a huge fan of a 13 man pitching staff, but our bench isn't seeing much action right now anyway (i.e. Florimon and Parmelee). Burton probably wouldn't be missed either (nor frankly would Swarzak if a better long-man option presented itself.)

 

Another way to look at it, total innings last 6 starts (to reward those pitchers going further than 6 innings):

 

Deduno 27.2

Correia 36

Johnson 39.2

May 39.2

[Mike Sixel]

Maybe Slama never would have stuck & I don't truly believe they missed on him. However I think teams do a real disservice to players who are older minor leaguers who seem to have figured it out. They make them prove it that much more clinging to them as depth rather than sending them to a team needing a starter due to injury or performance. Then the players get their shot 2 years later after losing the bit of magic they found followed by the team saying "see, I told you so" when they don't succeed.

 

Moving a Deduno & Corriea for young A ball guys letting Pino & Achter see if it carries makes sense. Especially with the Meyer, May, Darnell etc being able replacements if they fail.

 

Need a love button for this post.....

[tobi0040]

many of us may believe that, but we don't know that they will help win more games. We don't know that they would come up and pitch great, or if they would come up and post their own 5+ ERA. It's easy to assume that all prospects will come up and do well, or at least better than the veteran, but that's now always true.

 

I get the death and taxes logic. But believing something will happen is the basis for almost every roster decision. We can't not make the move because a chance exists it won't work out.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Seth: I am a Pino fan too, but it should be noted his K/9 rate is only 6.9 while starting this year. He's been his most effective, strikeout-wise, out of the pen (although his control and run prevention have been consistently good across both roles). He might be a better bullpen/swingman option than permanent starter (maybe taking Swarzak's spot?).

[tobi0040]

At this point (while they are still trying to win this year), keeping KC in the rotation makes sense as long as he pitches like he has the last couple of games. A month from now, this team may be in an entirely different place. "Contending" may seem hopeless. KC may have fallen apart again -- or he may have built good trade value.

 

KC had a 4.18 ERA last year and asked for an extension and we politely said no. We signed three free agent pitchers in that off-season and had several in-house candidates.

 

I have no inside information, but I am guessing we tried unloading Kevin in the off-season and we didn't find anything of value in return. Teams preferred giving Scott Feldman $30M than giving up a decent prospect and taking on $5M for Kevin. So with an ERA in the 5's in mid-June, I think the people holding out for anything of value in return are going to be dissapointed. I have to believe we will get even less now.

 

Maybe I am wrong about the trade value, but I am confident waiting another 8-10 starts is pushing off the inevitable and that is 8-10 fewer starts we won't have to evaluate/develop a good young starter.

[golfboy1]

Replacing Deduno could shift bullpen burden by putting Deduno back in the pen as a long man. Not a huge fan of a 13 man pitching staff, but our bench isn't seeing much action right now anyway (i.e. Florimon and Parmelee). Burton probably wouldn't be missed either (nor frankly would Swarzak if a better long-man option presented itself.)

 

Another way to look at it, total innings last 6 starts (to reward those pitchers going further than 6 innings):

 

Deduno 27.2

Correia 36

Johnson 39.2

May 39.2

 

I'm not a big fan of a 13 man staff either but maybe it is the best answer. Parmelee doesn't have much of a role since Morales signed. Cut Parmelee, send Deduno to the pen & call up either May or Darnell. I prefer Darnell but they both have pitched well enough to get a shot.

 

I like Darnell since I think it is a good idea to have a LH starter. It's a nice change to have several good options to chose from . There are a number of bullpen arms who they could promote if they cut Burton. Pressley, Achter, Tonkin or Pino are all candidates for the bullpen.

 

I'd like to see Lester Oliveros promoted to AAA soon. He's dominating AA, they just need a spot for him.

[tobi0040]

.I like Darnell since I think it is a good idea to have a LH starter. .

 

In my book, you need a lefty starter is right up there with you need a 3rd catcher.

 

To choose a guy with a 3.94 career minor league ERA with 6.4 K per 9 (Darnell) over a guy with a 3.08 ERA with 10.4 K per 9 (Meyer) because the other four pitchers are righties doesn't make sense to me.

[golfboy1]

In my book, you need a lefty starter is right up there with you need a 3rd catcher.

 

To choose a guy with a 3.94 career minor league ERA with 6.4 K per 9 (Darnell) over a guy with a 3.08 ERA with 10.4 K per 9 (Meyer) because the other four pitchers are righties doesn't make sense to me.

 

I wouldn't pick Darnell only on being LH but he deserves it based on his stats. My opinion is it is a benefit to have a LH starter against certain team's lineups. Yankee stadium is a good example.

 

Why are you using career stats? I don't think it's relevant what their ERA was 3 or 4 years ago. Have they improved since then? Scott Diamond's career ERA is pretty good but he's not getting promoted anytime soon.

 

Darnell outpitched Meyer last yr. in AA & his stats are at least as good, if not better than Meyer's this year in AAA. I think Meyers has more upside & hopefully will be a #1 starter eventually but Darnell could be a solid starter also. He looked fine in his one ML appearance.

[kblack1011]

Nobody is putting stats similar to Pino or Achter. I suspect that Dedudo's, Burton's, Guerrier's spots (to begin with, not to mention the Colabellos of the world) would be enough

 

People at AAA are and they are already on the 40 man roster.

[tobi0040]

I wouldn't pick Darnell only on being LH but he deserves it based on his stats. My opinion is it is a benefit to have a LH starter against certain team's lineups. Yankee stadium is a good example.

 

Why are you using career stats? I don't think it's relevant what their ERA was 3 or 4 years ago. Have they improved since then? Scott Diamond's career ERA is pretty good but he's not getting promoted anytime soon.

 

Darnell outpitched Meyer last yr. in AA & his stats are at least as good, if not better than Meyer's this year in AAA. I think Meyers has more upside & hopefully will be a #1 starter eventually but Darnell could be a solid starter also. He looked fine in his one ML appearance.

 

I used career stats because I think it is valuable to look at the last 500 IP in addition to the last 50. Meyer has an established track record of better results, by far and his stuff profiles as a lot more likely to get MLB hitters out.

[jokin]

The future is now. May and Meyer are upgrades now and into the future. I agree, they should replace Deduno and KC. Achter needs to get a shot as well. Johnson is 29 and Pino is 30, so they should be viewed as relief or starter depth, i.e. come up if we have a rash of injuries for a game or two, double-headers, etc.

 

I don't really see where KC fits. If we can't get anything in return for him, we should DFA him. He is not helping us in the rotation blocking someone younger and better.

 

I think Swarzak is perfect where we have him. A long reliever/pen guy with a 3.28 ERA last year and 3.85 this year is a useful piece.

 

Correction- Swarzak's FIP is 3.85. But.....his ERA is 4.68, his xFIP is 5.32, his SIERA is 4.98...and most significantly, his K% and BB% have fallen through the floor and gone through the roof, respectively. All of this to say, that Swarzak is actually looking like he's really not very useful, and very expendable and easily replaceable at this point.

[Dman]

I think a logical discussion about Correa has the following two questions:

 

-Are we a contending team this year?

-If Yes, is Correa going to be an upgrade over May or Meyer right now?

 

If either one of those questions is a no (I think both are). Then Correia on this team only makes sense if we want to give Corriea an extension because we view him as someone in our rotation next year and beyond. Or if we think his trade value is going to spike for some reason, at 33 and in a season where he has a mid 5.00's ERA in mid June.

 

I get another a few more no's.

 

I am in the camp that we have better options right now that will help us win more games this year and the fact that those are guys with a future here is a huge bonus. So this notion that Kevin is here until he pitches his way out doesn't make any sense to me.

 

I am going to be a little schizophrenic on this one. It is hard to replace Correia right now as he is rebuilding some value and there is a slim chance we can get something for him at the Trade deadline. Ultimately though I agree your thinking. Despite the recent interest we are not going to contend this year. We don't have the pitching fire power we need to compete. So why not Bring up a couple of guys and get them some MLB experience? Worst case is they can't adjust right away and get sent back down, but wouldn't you like to know that or have that happen sooner rather than later. We need to build pitching talent to compete. Let's see what we have and get them as much experience as possible this year so that maybe we don't have to waste all of next year developing them.

[jokin]

I agree with that. It is pretty clear from the last couple of games that Correia has learned something about PITCHING (as opposed to throwing) over the years. He frustrates me terribly when there are 2 on in the first inning but at least lately, he has escaped.

 

I think it comes down to the value of getting May/Meyer experience in MLB vs. trying to win this year.

 

At this point (while they are still trying to win this year), keeping KC in the rotation makes sense as long as he pitches like he has the last couple of games. A month from now, this team may be in an entirely different place. "Contending" may seem hopeless. KC may have fallen apart again -- or he may have built good trade value.

 

I just can't see doing anything with him now. In July??? Whole different story. And really, that would still be time to get May (and maybe Meyers) some time at the mlb level.

 

It's amazing how the prospect of legitimate competition for your starting spot, plus being in a contract year, can focus the mind. KC is clearly a different pitcher of late.

[tobi0040]

I am going to be a little schizophrenic on this one. It is hard to replace Correia right now as he is rebuilding some value and there is a slim chance we can get something for him at the Trade deadline. Ultimately though I agree your thinking. Despite the recent interest we are not going to contend this year. We don't have the pitching fire power we need to compete. So why not Bring up a couple of guys and get them some MLB experience? Worst case is they can't adjust right away and get sent back down, but wouldn't you like to know that or have that happen sooner rather than later. We need to build pitching talent to compete. Let's see what we have and get them as much experience as possible this year so that maybe we don't have to waste all of next year developing them.

 

I agree. When we had threads in spring training about what success this year means, everyone talked about clarity and development. Let's see guys take a step forward and lets get some clarity about what it is we have. Despite having a few more wins than I would have thought, I still think whether or not this year is a success depends on these things. So leaving Kevin around because he has strung together a few starts doesn't seem to fit to the big picture.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I agree. When we had threads in spring training about what success this year means, everyone talked about clarity and development. Let's see guys take a step forward and lets get some clarity about what it is we have. Despite having a few more wins than I would have thought, I still think whether or not this year is a success depends on these things. So leaving Kevin around because he has strung together a few starts doesn't seem to fit to the big picture.

 

I suspect that the big picture involves getting something of value for KC. Like it or not. And as long as he's pitching well, that's going to be the position of the FO. They have May lined up with him in the rotation right now. I suspect that means that they full expect May to replace KC at some point in the near future.

[tobi0040]

I suspect that the big picture involves getting something of value for KC. Like it or not. And as long as he's pitching well, that's going to be the position of the FO. They have May lined up with him in the rotation right now. I suspect that means that they full expect May to replace KC at some point in the near future.

 

You may be right. Hopefully the market has been gauged and it is worth the wait. I would be shocked if we got a player that cracks our top 20 list. If it is between a Miguel Sulbaren type prospect or another 10 starts for Meyer or May, I will take the latter.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I wouldn't pick Darnell only on being LH but he deserves it based on his stats.

 

Careful with his stats -- Darnell has allowed the most unearned runs on the Rochester staff (10). His RA this year would be 4.37, which is the highest of any Rochester started not named Diamond. His FIP is the highest of that group too. Plus he is barely averaging 5 IP per start, and has a BB/9 almost as high as Meyer's supposedly problematic one (and not nearly as many K/9).

 

Not that he is a terrible option, but Darnell is perhaps the least exciting of the AAA starters to me right now. (Although he is notably younger than Johnson and Pino, I suppose.)

[tobi0040]

Careful with his stats -- Darnell has allowed the most unearned runs on the Rochester staff (10). His RA this year would be 4.37, which is the highest of any Rochester started not named Diamond. His FIP is the highest of that group too. Plus he is barely averaging 5 IP per start, and has a BB/9 almost as high as Meyer's supposedly problematic one (and not nearly as many K/9).

 

Not that he is a terrible option, but Darnell is perhaps the least exciting of the AAA starters to me right now. (Although he is notably younger than Johnson and Pino, I suppose.)

 

 

Another reason why K rates and career numbers are valuable.

[Seth Stohs]

Seth: I am a Pino fan too, but it should be noted his K/9 rate is only 6.9 while starting this year. He's been his most effective, strikeout-wise, out of the pen (although his control and run prevention have been consistently good across both roles). He might be a better bullpen/swingman option than permanent starter (maybe taking Swarzak's spot?).

 

 

I completely agree that he is a swingman. That's what he has been in Rochester.

[golfboy1]

Careful with his stats -- Darnell has allowed the most unearned runs on the Rochester staff (10). His RA this year would be 4.37, which is the highest of any Rochester started not named Diamond. His FIP is the highest of that group too. Plus he is barely averaging 5 IP per start, and has a BB/9 almost as high as Meyer's supposedly problematic one (and not nearly as many K/9).

 

Not that he is a terrible option, but Darnell is perhaps the least exciting of the AAA starters to me right now. (Although he is notably younger than Johnson and Pino, I suppose.)

 

It's possible to make a good case for a number of pitchers. That's a huge improvement from previous years. While I said Darnell deserved it based on his stats, there are other pitchers who could also make that claim.

 

Meyers is the most exciting for me & May has really taken a leap forward this year so I'd be happy with either one of them. Meyers isn't on the roster so I would give him a little less chance then the others. It seems to me, the Twins aren't in a rush to promote May. They want him to build on his success before advancing him. IMHO

[Otto von Ballpark]

I completely agree that he is a swingman. That's what he has been in Rochester.

 

Yes. But listing him as a starter, and listing his combined rate stats in the same table as the other starters, is a little misleading. AAA swingmen are generally viewed more as MLB bullpen options, I think; I doubt Pino would be viewed as a real option for a spot MLB start, even if he was on the 40-man roster.

[jorgenswest]

They may call someone up to be in the bullpen as the 13th pitcher. One more start for Deduno on a short leash with Darnell or someone ready to come in.

 

With the day off on Monday, they would next need a 5th starter on June 28. Trevor May could slot in at that point.

 

They would need to make a roster move to get to 13. If Nunez is healthy, it can be Florimon. If not, put Nunez on DL.

[Otto von Ballpark]

It's possible to make a good case for a number of pitchers. That's a huge improvement from previous years. While I said Darnell deserved it based on his stats, there are other pitchers who could also make that claim.

 

In my opinion, Darnell might be the least deserving of the Rochester starting five right now. In addition to the runs and FIP and walk rate and low IP/GS, he has yet to pitch beyond 6.1 innings in a start this year. I think all of the other starters (excluding Meyer and his pitch limit) have gone deeper into games.

 

I might prefer Darnell as bullpen help at the moment, rather than a starter replacement.

[HansGruber]

In my opinion, Darnell might be the least deserving of the Rochester starting five right now. In addition to the runs and FIP and walk rate and low IP/GS, he has yet to pitch beyond 6.1 innings in a start this year. I think all of the other starters (excluding Meyer and his pitch limit) have gone deeper into games.

 

I might prefer Darnell as bullpen help at the moment, rather than a starter replacement.

 

I am with you on Darnell, he does not excite me as a starting rotation option but could be a solid BP arm. If he works out in the bullpen he could be used as a spot starter in emergency situations.

I wouldn't mind seeing the team make two roster moves. The bullpen could use help just as much as the rotation, now that Pino is getting a shot they could replace any of Deduno, Burton or Swarzak with Darnell, Achter, Tonkin or even Pino and let May start Monday. It might be too much shake-up for the Twins to stomach in a short period but there are a number of deserving pitchers to be called up and a number of spots that could use an upgrade.

[Lonestar]

It's amazing how the prospect of legitimate competition for your starting spot, plus being in a contract year, can focus the mind. KC is clearly a different pitcher of late.

It didn't work for him in 2012 in Pittsburgh.