Article: Twins Select Nick Burdi in the 2nd round

[Monkeypaws]

An 80 fastball?! With a plus slider? Pretty nice value in the 2nd round.

[jokin]

Achter probably should be up. Pressly last year was a below average pitcher used in low leverage situations. There would be a reason for that. Tonkin had a shot this year. What did he do that would say "I'm ready". Low strikeouts, high ERA are not what keeps you in the big leagues. You can't have both as Tonkin did.

Talent will rise up through the system. Keep your eyes open and you might see some of the promotions that happen.

 

Year over year, Tonkin lost 2 MPH on his FB and 3 MPH on his slider. Those kind of drops will kill an inexperienced RP without another out pitch. It looks like he's piecing things back together nicely in Rochester. Let's not sell him short prematurely.

[jokin]

Achter probably should be up. Pressly last year was a below average pitcher used in low leverage situations. There would be a reason for that. Tonkin had a shot this year. What did he do that would say "I'm ready". Low strikeouts, high ERA are not what keeps you in the big leagues. You can't have both as Tonkin did.

Talent will rise up through the system. Keep your eyes open and you might see some of the promotions that happen.

 

The reason Pressly was used in low leverage situation is because he was a Rule 5 selection that they used conservatively, and considering he'd jumped from AA, his numbers were pretty good for a rookie. He's throwing quite well in Rochester, his K%, now over 20% is a career high at any level, and he is putting up good numbers overall, even with an aberrational BABIP spike.

[gunnarthor]

I'm not going to claim to know anything about anything. It just seems like the Twins have a recent history of drafting relievers to switch them to starters. So why is this guy not possible for that?

 

I do find it strange, if a guy is that good why didn't he start in college? But they've been trying it now for a couple of years. Either way, seems like a nice value pick when looking at the pre draft rankings.

 

I think that's a bit of an overstatement. They certainly tried to make a few relief pitchers into starters but not all. Corey Williams - who might have had the best stuff - stayed a relief pitcher. And some of the relief pitchers got stretched out just to work on stuff but they were never expected to be starters at the ML level.

[zchrz]

I really like this pick big nasty durable flame thrower that shouldn't have much to absorb in the minors.

 

I've read about this training program he is apparently on, and it seems like a positive thing especially since 100 mph arms can be risky. Lots of work on throwing different weights of balls and throwing without releasing to build strength in the entire delivery.

 

[ScottyB]

I would strongly recommend that the Twins look to move Burton, Guerrier and Swarzak out as soon as possible. I'd probably do it by Sunday if I could get any kind of value at all, with Pino, May and Pressly replacing them. Correia to long relief with May starting in his place.

 

I'm not worried a bit yet about Tonkin, I think he'll be fine, pitchers go through adjustment periods and funks, he showed enough last year and early this year that he can still be very effective in time.

 

As long as we're cleaning house can we add Kubel and Duensing as well?

[TheLeviathan]

I guess I'm curious......what are the odds we see him by spring training of 2016?

[Seth Stohs]

I guess I'm curious......what are the odds we see him by spring training of 2016?

 

Very high.

[savvyspy]

This guy should be on the major league roster in 2016 at the latest. He doesn't start because he doesn't have a 3rd pitch at all. But he might have been the top relief pitcher in this draft. High risk of arm injury though so they shouldn't waste time moving him up.

[Heimer]

Why didn't he start in college?

[drivlikejehu]

He throws super hard and has a violent delivery, with poor command. There's no guarantee he'll stay healthy long enough to even make it to the Twins (see, e.g., JT Chargois) or do much once he's there.

 

That's my problem with it - there's limited upside due to his relief role, yet still a good amount of risk. It's not necessarily a bad bet purely in WAR terms, but it's a missed opportunity to add depth at a more important position.

[Willihammer]

Is his command that bad? His K/BB ratio is 58/10 in 33.1 innings.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

100 mph on the radar gun. That's all I need to hear. I know, I know...the ball has to have some movement and must go where the pitcher throws it and there must be at least one other pitch...but I say: Great second round pick at # 46. Bring on the heat!

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Is his command that bad? His K/BB ratio is 58/10 in 33.1 innings.

 

Willi: Thanks for making your point with facts. May I remind everyone the following: "100 mph on the radar gun!"

[drivlikejehu]

Is his command that bad? His K/BB ratio is 58/10 in 33.1 innings.

 

Well I'm not a scout, but that's what Law and some other analysts have said.

 

Command is different from control... the latter refers to the ability to avoid walks, while the former refers to the ability to specifically locate pitches, whether in or out of the strike zone. Burdi can just blow away college hitters without really worrying about location too much.

[Marta Shearing]

He throws super hard and has a violent delivery, with poor command. There's no guarantee he'll stay healthy long enough to even make it to the Twins (see, e.g., JT Chargois) or do much once he's there.

 

That's my problem with it - there's limited upside due to his relief role, yet still a good amount of risk. It's not necessarily a bad bet purely in WAR terms, but it's a missed opportunity to add depth at a more important position.

Whenever they draft a pitcher, my first thought is "see you in 6-7 years after you struggle for a few years in Low A ball then have TJ surgery". We've kind of been conditioned to feel this way. Every day I pick up the paper I'm expecting to read Kohl Stewart is having elbow soreness.

[mk]

At first I was not excited about a reliever in the 2nd round thinking they don't carry as much value. But now I'm remembering how much the Twins were willing to give away for Matt Capps. How much would you have given up to get Drew Storen when those rumors were circling around a couple years back?

 

With a big fastball, if he's MLB ready very soon he could be a very valuable trade chip sooner rather than later.

[gunnarthor]

Whenever they draft a pitcher, my first thought is "see you in 6-7 years after you struggle for a few years in Low A ball then have TJ surgery". We've kind of been conditioned to feel this way.

And which pitchers have met that description?

[tarheeltwinsfan]

You can view the page at http://www.twinsdaily.com/content.php/3070-Twins-Select-Nick-Burdi-in-the-2nd-round

 

In 2013 only 9 pitchers in all of major league baseball threw pitches faster than 101 mph. www.efastball.com/baseball/stats/fastest-pitch. It was reported Burdi threw 103 mph this year and threw over 100 mph occasionally. Only A. Chapman topped 103 in 2013. Burdi's strikeout to walk ratio was outstanding this year. I know, I know...there are no guarantees, but that is true with any player selected in the draft, especially pitchers. I also think a flame thrower who occasionally goes over 100 mph which registers on the scoreboard draws the attention of the crowd, excites his teammates, and the opposition notices too...and says, "Man he is really bringing some serious heat". I contend that helps the flame thrower's team psychologically. Burdi's selection at #46 was a steal.

[Steve Lein]

I love this pick. The fact that Burdi was rated so highly on boards as a relief pitcher, should tell you a lot.

 

I think there are a few organizations that would have him pitching in the majors before the end of the year like the White Sox did with Chris Sale.

 

The 100 MPH heat is awesome, but I like the 90MPH slider even better!

[kab21]

Is his command that bad? His K/BB ratio is 58/10 in 33.1 innings.

 

K's and BB's don't always tell you a lot about a player's command. It's easily possible that college hitters would swing at pitches on and off the plate because he has a 100/90mph fastball/slider. The good thing is that MLB hitters MIGHT also swing at everything he throws.

[Siehbiscuit]

Well I'm not a scout, but that's what Law and some other analysts have said.

 

Command is different from control... the latter refers to the ability to avoid walks, while the former refers to the ability to specifically locate pitches, whether in or out of the strike zone. Burdi can just blow away college hitters without really worrying about location too much.

 

I agree with you on the command vs control issue. BUT, this guy has a .125 BAA and isn't walking people at a terrible rate. 100mph heat is hard to hit period. There is less need to paint the corners when nearly every heater is over 97! Fast fastballs can even cut the plate in half and its harder to hit than a Correia 88mph "heater" on the black. Fast is still fast. His numbers DO support this (low walks, low BAA). You can't hit what you can't see.

[kab21]

I agree with you on the command vs control issue. BUT, this guy has a .125 BAA and isn't walking people at a terrible rate. 100mph heat is hard to hit period. There is less need to paint the corners when nearly every heater is over 97! Fast fastballs can even cut the plate in half and its harder to hit than a Correia 88mph "heater" on the black. Fast is still fast. His numbers DO support this (low walks, low BAA). You can't hit what you can't see.

 

None of this means his command is good. Let's call it effectively wild.

[tobi0040]

Very high.

 

Seth, do you have any idea of whether the Twins view him as a starter or reliever?

 

My two cents. If the guy has an 80 fastball and a 60 slider. Why not throw him in Low A or rookie leauges and tell him to throw 25 change ups a game and try and start him?

 

We have a good pen right now and the other day I looked and we have 6 relievers in Rochester with a sub 3.00 (including Tonkin, Achter, and Guerra). We have Pino and Johnson starting and both could move to the pen.

 

While I concede that none have the upside as this guy. It would seem that this guy would have at least a 60-65 fastball as a starter. So you have a plus fastball and a plus slider, if he develops an average change up you have 200 innings of a #2 starter at least.

 

If he ends up being a set up guy or closer, I don't view this as a wasted pick. Between 2000 and 2014, only four of our 2nd round picks have played for the Twins. Crain, Swarzak, Baker, and Slowey.

[gunnarthor]

Seth, do you have any idea of whether the Twins view him as a starter or reliever?

 

My two cents. If the guy has an 80 fastball and a 60 slider. Why not throw him in Low A or rookie leauges and tell him to throw 25 change ups a game and try and start him?

 

.

I asked that question in a KLaw chat a couple days ago before we even drafted him (b/c I was really hoping he'd be there!). Klaw said something like his pitches might not be 80 if he has to throw 100 pitches/game and concern about mechanics.

[ashbury]

Can we throw in Mike Pelfrey?

 

Yes, but then you'd have to add Duensing to sweeten the deal.

[tobi0040]

I asked that question in a KLaw chat a couple days ago before we even drafted him (b/c I was really hoping he'd be there!). Klaw said something like his pitches might not be 80 if he has to throw 100 pitches/game and concern about mechanics.

 

Interesting. I will take a 95-96 mph heater and a 60 slider over the course of 200 IP. The upside is too large not to attempt it in my opinon. No reason he can't go back to throwing gas if it doesn't work out.

[DJL44]

Twins mentioned to Burdi they had one guy ahead of him on the board who went shortly before him. I'm guessing Kentucky LHP AJ Reed.

[tobi0040]

Twins mentioned to Burdi they had one guy ahead of him on the board who went shortly before him. I'm guessing Kentucky LHP AJ Reed.

 

Interesting that we would go out of our way to communicate to the kid that we like him, just not as much as someone else. But if he goes we would love to have you.

 

Way to make the kid feel special.

[gunnarthor]

Interesting that we would go out of our way to communicate to the kid that we like him, just not as much as someone else. But if he goes we would love to have you.

 

Way to make the kid feel special.

 

At this point, you're just looking for anything to complain about, right? The Twins kept a kid (and his agent) informed of their thinking. Those bastards!