Article: How Much Longer Will Alex Meyer (and Twins Fans) Wait?

[Brock Beauchamp]

I don't think it "hurts" Meyer or anyone else to make a few more AAA starts. Right now, though, I just don't like the message it sends to your team (or your fans) when it certainly appears that you have better pitchers available to you than you're putting on the hill every 5 days, but you won't bring them up.

 

It could easily be argued that it sends a worse message to your team to pull the rug out from under established veterans after one bad month.

 

I'm all for calling up Meyer soon and getting him MLB innings but before you do that, you need to make sure of two things:

 

1. That he's actually going to better than the guy he's replacing

 

2. That you're removing the correct veteran from the roster

 

Right now, the Twins don't have answers to either of those things. Do you remove Pelfrey or Correia? Are these two starts by Meyer an aberration or is he legitimately dominant, enough so to make an impact on the MLB level?

 

Give it another 2+ weeks, see how things shake out, then make the appropriate moves, if a move needs to be made at all. Calling up Meyer after last night's start is the very definition of a knee jerk reaction.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Amen, SD. I bet that you'll get the "gotta worry about the long term, like next year or after" response though.

 

Nope. Nice try, though.

[Steven Buhr]

What you say makes perfect, logical sense, Brock.

 

But I'm just not sure another couple of weeks will answer those questions. Will the Rochester pitchers throw nothing but shutouts for 2 weeks? No. Will the back of the Twins' rotation be as bad as they have been? Probably not. Where would that leave you in 2 weeks?

 

As for the message it would send to the established veterans, I think it might be, "quit sucking or your butt is out of here because we're done putting up with it." I'd be ok with that as a fan and I think I would be, too, as a player.

[Mike Sixel]

So 4 good starts is a trend, but 2 is not? And, Pelfrey was bad last year. He has been bad MOST of his career. This isn't about 1 bad month, this is about a career of being not all that good. I'd be happy if they put Deduno in for Pelfrey, I'd be happier if they put Meyer in.

[Craig Arko]

The next (hopefully post-rain) home stand starts May 13th against the Red Sox. That would be the earliest I'd see a move being made that involves messing with the 40-man.

[Brock Beauchamp]

What you say makes perfect, logical sense, Brock.

 

But I'm just not sure another couple of weeks will answer those questions. Will the Rochester pitchers throw nothing but shutouts for 2 weeks? No. Will the back of the Twins' rotation be as bad as they have been? Probably not. Where would that leave you in 2 weeks?

 

Meyer doesn't need to keep throwing shutouts. If he continues to miss bats and walks fewer batters, then he forces a decision. My point is that two starts usually don't provide enough information to make an informed decision. Give him some more time and if he's still completely dominating lineups two weeks from now, then you know he's really on to something and isn't succeeding through a healthy dose of dumb luck and bad lineups.

 

As for the message it would send to the established veterans, I think it might be, "quit sucking or your butt is out of here because we're done putting up with it." I'd be ok with that as a fan and I think I would be, too, as a player.

 

Sure, and I agree with that premise... But you have to give those guys more than five starts in miserable April weather to make that decision. If they reach the 7-8 start mark and are still awful, then they've had their chance. You yank them out of the rotation and move on.

[Brock Beauchamp]

So 4 good starts is a trend, but 2 is not?

 

Two weeks is generally three more starts but the numbers don't really matter. You move him when you're confident that he has turned the corner, which isn't always evident from a box score.

 

And, Pelfrey was bad last year. He has been bad MOST of his career. This isn't about 1 bad month, this is about a career of being not all that good.

 

He was actually quite good in the second half of last season. I'm all in favor of yanking Pelfrey out of the rotation because, as I pointed out in another thread, his velocity is down and he's not a good pitcher when he can't throw 93-94 mph. But given the weather this April, I think the prudent decision is to give him another couple of starts to see if he turns around (unless he's injured, at which point you yank him out of the rotation yesterday and replace him with Deduno).

[blindeke]

If anyone in the Twins front office makes a decision based solely on Super 2 status, they deserve a kick in the crotch on behalf of a tired, downtrodden fanbase.

 

Whoever signed Pelfrey deserves one too.

[Steven Buhr]

And I'm fine with a couple weeks, Brock, especially given that the Twins go on the road Monday for a week.

 

My point is simply that I'm kind of tired of thinking logically and being deliberate to make sure every move is timed perfectly. I'd like to see a little sense of urgency out of this front office right now; a sign that they're just as tired of the bad starting pitching as fans are.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I think roster space has a lot to do with it for position players but I'm not so sure about pitchers... I think the (maddening at times) bullpen stints for Liriano and Santana had as much to do with controlling innings as rotation space, particularly in the case of Liriano, who was only 22 in 2006.

 

The Santana situation in 2003 was infuriating, though. He was only 23 at the time but he was so obviously better than some of the junk they were rolling out in the rotation.

 

True, and I have actually defended the overall Santana strategy (as infuriating as it was at the time).

 

In 2006, Carlos Silva was dropped from the rotation after his 8th start, on May 14th, and Liriano took his next turn. So that's maybe the timeline this year? Silva's contract situation was similar to Correia this year (although Silva had a team option year). Silva had an 8.80 ERA in those 8 starts, with peripherals to match. Lohse was dropped about the same time with an 8.92 ERA. (Baker was dropped a few weeks later too after rising to 6.06).

 

In 2003, Joe Mays lasted 18 starts with a 6.57 ERA, following a 5.38 ERA in 2002. Rick Reed had 15 starts with a 5.03 ERA (~90 ERA+) at the same point. Santana didn't get a rotation spot until mid-July. I liked Santana's inning progression, but wow, that looks bad, especially for a contending team (one that was struggling to overtake the Royals at the time!).

[tarheeltwinsfan]

In hindsight, Meyer should have been starting in the 4th or 5th position for the Twins from the beginning of the season. As unbelievable as this may have been before the season started, the Twins are hanging in there even though they have played a tough schedule. So in summation: 1) The Twins need him. 2) Meyer has proven he is ready. 3) The other prospects are watching to see how the front office handles this situation, which is a good problem to have. Let's give Meyer the opportunity he has earned.

[Brock Beauchamp]

And I'm fine with a couple weeks, Brock, especially given that the Twins go on the road Monday for a week.

 

My point is simply that I'm kind of tired of thinking logically and being deliberate to make sure every move is timed perfectly. I'd like to see a little sense of urgency out of this front office right now; a sign that they're just as tired of the bad starting pitching as fans are.

 

Absolutely. Personally, I think the right move is to dig down and find out why Pelfrey is throwing more fastballs more slowly than any other point in his career. If he's even slightly injured, you replace him with Deduno immediately.

 

Then, if Correia is still struggling in mid-to-late May, then you consider calling up Meyer if he's still dominating.

[cmathewson]

I think roster space has a lot to do with it for position players but I'm not so sure about pitchers... I think the (maddening at times) bullpen stints for Liriano and Santana had as much to do with controlling innings as rotation space, particularly in the case of Liriano, who was only 22 in 2006.

 

The Santana situation in 2003 was infuriating, though. He was only 23 at the time but he was so obviously better than some of the junk they were rolling out in the rotation.

 

The Santana thing is a constant throughout Anderson's tenure. He favors veteran status over any other consideration. This is why Correia started ahead of Hughes and Gibson this year, even though he's the fourth-best pitcher in the rotation, ahead of only Pelfrey, which is not saying much.

 

I think you can't compare position player development to pitcher development. You can develop as a pitcher in the major leagues much easier than you can as a position player. The top consideration is who is best placed to get outs right now. All pitchers are developing and making adjustments all the time. If Meyer is better right now, they should make room for him. IMHO, he's better than both Pelfrey and Correia right now. By the end of the season, he will be the ace of the staff, without much question.

[Brock Beauchamp]

2) Meyer has proven he is ready.

 

He hasn't even come close to proving he is ready. He's had two dominant starts in a row. Let's not get ahead of ourselves here. Kyle Gibson was pretty dominant for over 100 innings of AAA ball last season and was absolutely awful when he got the call.

[jokin]

The next (hopefully post-rain) home stand starts May 13th against the Red Sox. That would be the earliest I'd see a move being made that involves messing with the 40-man.

 

Yep. And as I've posted previously, Meyer's current pitching schedule corresponds pretty well with starts on Tuesday, May 13 and the following Sunday of that Twins homestand.

 

(And don't the Twins have to do something with Guerrier in the next 2 weeks as well?

[diehardtwinsfan]

I might be wrong but I don't believe there's a single instance of Boras doing this with a high profile client.

 

From what I understand, this is true for hitters, but not as much for pitchers, which I'm guessing has to do with a greater amount of risk to injury..

 

That said, this is a pet peeve of mine. Boras is an agent and doesn't have ultimate control over the player. Clearly players that hire him want to maximize their value, but the ultimate decision lies with the player, not the agent. Boras may advise against this, but the ultimate decision would like with the player after Boras explains to them the risk/reward.

[Otto von Ballpark]

He was actually quite good in the second half of last season.

 

Pelfrey, second half of 2013, had roughly a 92 ERA+ and averaged less than 5.5 IP per start. Better than his first half, but not sure if I'd call that "quite good". Certainly shouldn't guarantee him much slack in 2014.

 

Also, to be fair, his rough start in 2014 isn't just a run of the mill, bad-luck rough patch -- it looks fairly epically bad. 15 BB, 8 K, 5 HR in 19.2 IP. That's the kind of trend I want to see the Twins getting in front of with a roster move, not waiting too long to let it play out some more.

[amjgt]

I've seen talk of this new and improved changeup, but what's improved about it?

 

Movement? Lower velocity?

 

Anyone know?

[Brock Beauchamp]

The Santana thing is a constant throughout Anderson's tenure. He favors veteran status over any other consideration. This is why Correia started ahead of Hughes and Gibson this year, even though he's the fourth-best pitcher in the rotation, ahead of only Pelfrey, which is not saying much.

 

I don't think that has much of a bearing on anything other than "protect the younger guys who may not have the confidence to go against the tougher pitchers the first two times through the rotation".

 

Rotation order has so little bearing on anything that I wonder why people even bring it up.

[jokin]

He hasn't even come close to proving he is ready. He's had two dominant starts in a row. Let's not get ahead of ourselves here. Kyle Gibson was pretty dominant for over 100 innings of AAA ball last season and was absolutely awful when he got the call.

 

 

Other issues (like Super 2?) came into play with Gibson's very belated call-up. But if you don't call a guy up, how does one really know if he's ready or not?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Also, to be fair, his rough start in 2014 isn't just a run of the mill, bad-luck rough patch -- it looks fairly epically bad. 15 BB, 8 K, 5 HR in 19.2 IP. That's the kind of trend I want to see the Twins getting in front of with a roster move, not waiting too long to let it play out some more.

 

Which is why I've questioned multiple times whether he's injured. His velocity is down, he's giving up an inordinate number of gopher balls, he's relying less on offspeed pitches (already a weak point of his pitching style), and he's walking too many batters.

 

If he's even *a little bit* injured, he needs to be out of the rotation immediately.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

The Twins need to be shopping Correia and Pelfrey now for prospects. The Twins and other teams know what to expect from Correia. He has been consistent and predictable. Every time there is an injury to a starter, Anthony should be on the phone immediately to the injured pitcher's GM and see what can be worked out. Pelfrey will not bring as much on a trade because he is not as predictable as Correia and has pitched worse than Correia.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Other issues (like Super 2?) came into play with Gibson's very belated call-up. But if you don't call a guy up, how does one really know if he's ready or not?

 

They get to watch the guy's film every start. We don't. It's really that simple.

[jokin]

I've seen talk of this new and improved changeup, but what's improved about it?

 

Movement? Lower velocity?

 

Anyone know?

 

According to the pertinent article, Meyer was having trouble with his previous off-speed stuff to the point that he was over-relying on the FB. Apparently, the new 3 finger-grip change is a knee buckler with guys setting up for the FB. Will Middlebrooks was a believer, striking out 3 times.

[jokin]

They get to watch the guy's film every start. We don't. It's really that simple.

 

So does someone need to be fired for so badly mis-interpreting Gibson's videos from late last June?

[Brock Beauchamp]

So does someone need to be fired for so badly mis-interpreting Gibson's videos from late last June?

 

No. IIRC, Ryan pointed out that he wasn't going after batters before the call-up, which was also Gibson's problem in the Majors. By June/July of last season, the front office no longer had much of a choice. The rotation was so bad that somebody had to step up... I'm sure they were hoping Gibson was that guy, despite statements about consistency before the call-up. Obviously, that didn't work out for them but based on comments, I think they were aware that might be an issue.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Meyer doesn't need to keep throwing shutouts. If he continues to miss bats and walks fewer batters, then he forces a decision. My point is that two starts usually don't provide enough information to make an informed decision. Give him some more time and if he's still completely dominating lineups two weeks from now, then you know he's really on to something and isn't succeeding through a healthy dose of dumb luck and bad lineups.

 

Although I kinda get what you're saying, nobody is basing a Meyer decision on two starts. His early results in 2014, while the first time he's been at AAA, are perfectly consistent with 2013, and basically his pro career.

[Mike Sixel]

Basically, Gibson benefited from coming up last year, even though he might not have been ready. Now, he's more ready this year. I'd argue that getting a taste (and either succeeding and staying up, or learning what you need to change) is a better strategy than waiting for some level of perfection. Either way, I want Pelfrey out of the rotation sooner rather than later.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Although I kinda get what you're saying, nobody is basing a Meyer decision on two starts. His early results in 2014, while the first time he's been at AAA, are perfectly consistent with 2013, and basically his pro career.

 

But the changeup is new. He's dominating at a level he didn't show in AA and his new pitch is getting the credit.

 

Again, I'm not against calling up Meyer soon, I simply believe that showing a bit of prudence and letting him pitch a few more innings in AAA isn't going to kill anybody. Let him show that the changeup is real and that he's truly a dominant pitcher.

[Craig Arko]

(And don't the Twins have to do something with Guerrier in the next 2 weeks as well?

 

May 8th is his current opt-out date. Unfortunately I fear Tonkin instead of Burton would be the casualty. Options and all.