10 hours ago, Ted Schwerzler said:

The Twins had very few pitching picks throw last year. For the prep arms, it's heavy body development first.

And we wonder why they have all of these arm problems.  They ALREADY have been throwing a ton of innings!  Burt Blyleven is rolling over in his g............never mind.   :-O

1 hour ago, Karbo said:

IMO what matters the most is scoring runs. Some guys hit HR's, some guys don't, but if they get on base and score I don't care how hard they hit. Martin is a guy that gets on base, and can run. He should be a good to great table setter.

The problem is that EV isn't tied to power. If you make weak contact, you're going to struggle getting hits. That could be part of what holds him back at the next level.

13 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

 

The trade you suggest would guarantee the Twins to finish in 2nd place in the AL Central, so not a good idea.  

I am curious. Please explain why you feel that the proposed trade of Polo and E. Rod for one of the 3 pitchers mentions, guarantees 2nd place in the AL Central for 2024 for the Twinkies. Thanks. I always enjoy your posts, but this one surprised me. 

11 hours ago, Ted Schwerzler said:

The ceilings are where you'll often see guys judged by. Brooks Lee is going to be a really good pro, but he's only 52nd on the new BP 101. His ceiling isn't a perennial all star. Minnesota has depth, but not a bunch of Walker Jenkins toolsy types.

I'll be down there in mid March as always.

Thanks. I'm planning on arriving at Ft. Myers on Thursday the 7th of March, wandering around the practice fields and Ding Darling National Wildlife Refuge on Friday, seeing the Yankees on Saturday and the Nationals on Sunday.  I have a young friend, Zack Brzykcy, who is from near my hometown. His mom is a friend of mine. Zack just made the Nationals 40 man roster as a RP. I'd like to say hello to him, but there is no guarantee he will make the trip to Ft. Myers for that game.  We'll have to return to North Carolina Monday. 

12 hours ago, Ted Schwerzler said:

The ceilings are where you'll often see guys judged by. Brooks Lee is going to be a really good pro, but he's only 52nd on the new BP 101. His ceiling isn't a perennial all star. Minnesota has depth, but not a bunch of Walker Jenkins toolsy types.

I'll be down there in mid March as always.

People seem really high on Lee, but so far he hasn't exactly torn up the minor leagues. A combined .808 OPS last year between AA and AAA is decent, but it was .737 at AAA. Granted, he is young for that league - I fully expect him to play nearly all of 2024 at St. Paul. We'll know better then - but I tend to think his ceiling is not 'perennial All-Star.'

1 hour ago, Ted Schwerzler said:

The problem is that EV isn't tied to power. If you make weak contact, you're going to struggle getting hits. That could be part of what holds him back at the next level.

I have to disagree with that. who cares if a ball traveling 80 MPH or 95MPH finds its way just over the head or just out of reach of an infielder. Base hit either way. Maybe it's bat control, or maybe just luck. Either way the guy is on base do be driven in by one of the big boppers. I certainly wouldn't want a lineup full of light hitters, but a guy that gets on base, regardless of how, is a valuable player. Sure beats all the K's this team has IMO.

1 hour ago, arby58 said:

People seem really high on Lee, but so far he hasn't exactly torn up the minor leagues. A combined .808 OPS last year between AA and AAA is decent, but it was .737 at AAA. Granted, he is young for that league - I fully expect him to play nearly all of 2024 at St. Paul. We'll know better then - but I tend to think his ceiling is not 'perennial All-Star.'

That’s not his ceiling. I think he’s much more likely a big league regular for a long time. He may grab an All-Star appearance or two along the way. His skillset is one that is strong because he’s got good tools everywhere but not an elite one.

25 minutes ago, Karbo said:

I have to disagree with that. who cares if a ball traveling 80 MPH or 95MPH finds its way just over the head or just out of reach of an infielder. Base hit either way. Maybe it's bat control, or maybe just luck. Either way the guy is on base do be driven in by one of the big boppers. I certainly wouldn't want a lineup full of light hitters, but a guy that gets on base, regardless of how, is a valuable player. Sure beats all the K's this team has IMO.

I can promise you that data doesn’t back this up. Weak contact does not produce consistently positive results. Putting the bat on the ball is only a positive when it’s done with optimal contact. You still have to make high velo contact to generate base hits.

On 1/16/2024 at 6:39 PM, Ted Schwerzler said:

The ceilings are where you'll often see guys judged by. Brooks Lee is going to be a really good pro, but he's only 52nd on the new BP 101. His ceiling isn't a perennial all star. Minnesota has depth, but not a bunch of Walker Jenkins toolsy types.

I'll be down there in mid March as always.

Brooks Lee's ceiling is absolutely perennial all-star.  If Brooks Lee hits his 100th percentile outcome, he will hit something like .310/.370/.500, and finish his career with 2500ish hits, and probably 6-8 AS appearances.  He's very VERY unlikely to hit that ceiling, but that's why it's called a ceiling.

If I had to put a peg on his career, I'd say he ends up something like a .280/.350/.450 hitter with 1-2 AS appearances.  He'll be a guy you're perfectly happy having on your team during the first 6 years of his career, but you won't necessarily want to pay FA money for.  My guess is his career will end after 2035 or 2036, and he'll be remembered as a nice player, but he'll never make a team's HOF/ROH.

On 1/17/2024 at 7:58 AM, Karbo said:

I have to disagree with that. who cares if a ball traveling 80 MPH or 95MPH finds its way just over the head or just out of reach of an infielder. Base hit either way. Maybe it's bat control, or maybe just luck. Either way the guy is on base do be driven in by one of the big boppers. I certainly wouldn't want a lineup full of light hitters, but a guy that gets on base, regardless of how, is a valuable player. Sure beats all the K's this team has IMO.

The two most important things a hitter can do to be a good/great hitter is to make a lot of contact, and to have that contact be skewed towards hard/medium.  There are almost no good/great hitters who don't consistently make a lot of contact with most of it hard/medium contact.

On 1/17/2024 at 8:31 AM, tarheeltwinsfan said:

I am curious. Please explain why you feel that the proposed trade of Polo and E. Rod for one of the 3 pitchers mentions, guarantees 2nd place in the AL Central for 2024 for the Twinkies. Thanks. I always enjoy your posts, but this one surprised me. 

That trade also had Julien in it. It's stupid lopsided in favor of the mariners. 

1 hour ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

The two most important things a hitter can do to be a good/great hitter is to make a lot of contact, and to have that contact be skewed towards hard/medium.  There are almost no good/great hitters who don't consistently make a lot of contact with most of it hard/medium contact.

IMHO the two most important things for a hitter are getting on base and when there scoring runs.

On 1/17/2024 at 6:41 AM, Karbo said:

IMO what matters the most is scoring runs. Some guys hit HR's, some guys don't, but if they get on base and score I don't care how hard they hit. Martin is a guy that gets on base, and can run. He should be a good to great table setter.

FYI, Martin was tied for 31st in AAA in OBP and of those 31 his SLG was only above 2 players. , lots of minors league players have good OBP, but it takes more than that to be a major league player. (Not saying Martin can't be, just trying to put some prospective on his)

On 1/16/2024 at 3:17 AM, Oldgoat_MN said:

I keep reading how impressive Rodriguez is and keep getting stuck at that .240 BA. I'm just an old man in a hat, but if he doesn't take a significant step forward in his batting average I'm still going to be hesitant to believe he is as promising as folks keep saying.

Hoping 2024 sets those concerns aside.

Nice write up. Thanks 

Watch out, the BA haters will come after you.  

I agree with you, at some point he needs to make more contact and get more balls in play 

On 1/16/2024 at 10:50 AM, saviking said:

10 hitters and 5 pitchers. Time to stock up on pitching prospects in the 2024 draft. Even the two promising international prospects we just signed are hitters. Loaded with shortstop and center fielder's.

I don't disagree on some pitching heavy drafts but for position players outside of an occasional catcher I'm not drafting anyone who wasn't a "shortstop" or "centerfielder" at some point. The positions sort down, not up.

That's what makes the Aaron Saboto pick so confusing. He was always stuck to one position at best and they miss judged a college bat badly which seems in their wheelhouse. A defensively limited draft pick has so many less ways to be a contributor in the long run. That one tool better be special.

20 hours ago, Karbo said:

IMHO the two most important things for a hitter are getting on base and when there scoring runs.

Sure, but the two are connected. If you get on base and it is mostly first base, it is a lot harder to score you from there than if you regularly hit doubles (and obviously if you hit a home run). That's part of  why Arraez, for all his great batting average traits, did not land near the top of the league leaders for runs scored last year.

22 minutes ago, arby58 said:

Sure, but the two are connected. If you get on base and it is mostly first base, it is a lot harder to score you from there than if you regularly hit doubles (and obviously if you hit a home run). That's part of  why Arraez, for all his great batting average traits, did not land near the top of the league leaders for runs scored last year.

Arraez just couldn't run. In Martins case he has been a good to great base stealer. Then you use the big boppers behind him to hopefully drive him in. 

I think the Twins farm system will quickly rise up the rankings as top prospects from other clubs graduate. Lee is the only one from the top 15 I would say who is likely to be on the Twins roster long enough to not qualify for prospect status next year. And Jenkins will likely be a top 3 overall prospect very soon. 

On 1/17/2024 at 6:41 AM, Karbo said:

IMO what matters the most is scoring runs. Some guys hit HR's, some guys don't, but if they get on base and score I don't care how hard they hit. Martin is a guy that gets on base, and can run. He should be a good to great table setter.

In my opinion you are under rating Matt Canterino like you did Julian last year. His strike out numbers are elite and putting him below somebody like Soto is crazy to me. I also believe Prieplipp is better than several of the prospects on your list. TJ surgery doesn't kill a prospects status anyore.  

Interesting list, thanks.

Add me to the list of those who believe in Canterino.  Yes, I would have him higher on your list, much higher.  And must disagree with one of your comments regarding Jenkins.  Although unlikely, this kid just might join the Twins late this year.  Will repeat my earlier comments that he just might be the modern day version of Mickey Mantle.  Well, hopefully at least on the diamond.

EmRod OPS at A+ 863. He's 2 years younger than average, age 20, still learning english and living in the middle of flipping IOWA. Still we've got some cats in this thread questioning his dedication to getting better or his professionalism. It bears repeating: He's 20.

I dunno if these tools will translate, but literally nothing about his 23 season says they won't. At his age taking almost 100 walks. I don't know where to find minor league splits, but it would be good to know how many of his PAs got to two strikes. Maybe he actually hits better than average at two strikes. He's at A+ ball, he should be trying to develop skills like that anyway. Obviously, like Julien when he gets to the bigs he'll want to start ending things earlier in ABs with authority, but for now, working on a 2 stike approach is good, even if Ks become part of the deal. 

On 1/17/2024 at 7:15 AM, arby58 said:

People seem really high on Lee, but so far he hasn't exactly torn up the minor leagues. A combined .808 OPS last year between AA and AAA is decent, but it was .737 at AAA. Granted, he is young for that league - I fully expect him to play nearly all of 2024 at St. Paul. We'll know better then - but I tend to think his ceiling is not 'perennial All-Star.'

He was promoted to AAA less than a year after turning pro..... What is it people expect?

On 1/18/2024 at 3:54 PM, HrbieFan said:

Watch out, the BA haters will come after you.  

I agree with you, at some point he needs to make more contact and get more balls in play 

Zero people hate batting average. Some people say other things also matter ...

52 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

He was promoted to AAA less than a year after turning pro..... What is it people expect?

If he were coming out of high school, the expectations would be lower, but he played 3 years of Division 1 college baseball. I'm not down on him, but I think Baseball Prospectus' ranking of him (52) is about right. He isn't a phenom. He needs a full year at AAA, and then we'll see. I'm a bird in the hand guy, and the bird in the hand, having done it at the MLB level (130 OPS+ last year), is Julien.