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Movement Among the Twins Top Prospects from 2023


Ted Schwerzler

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The Minnesota Twins go into the offseason with an excellent combination of top prospects and serious depth throughout the organization. With plenty of young players putting up nice seasons, a recent end-of-the-year update to the Twins Daily Top 20 Prospects list shows real movement.

For the Twins organization, prospect graduations took place this year in the form of rookies like Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien, Matt Wallner, and Louie Varland. It wasn’t just the guys that made it to the big leagues where substantial change was experienced. With a mid-October update to the Twins Daily Top 20 Prospects, it’s clear there are a few names that jump off the page.

As Minnesota looks to find ways to supplement the major league roster for Rocco Baldelli this offseason, utilizing prospect capital could be a plan for Derek Falvey. The organization could see a change in payroll realities on the heels of a new television outcome, and trades may be a more cost-effective way to add than the free agent market. Beyond that, we saw what rookies can look like as contributors in 2023, and identifying who creates the next wave is a must.

Here are some notable names that saw their stock rise in 2023:

1. Walker Jenkins
Taking over the top spot from Brooks Lee, Jenkins went from the draft to pro ball and didn’t skip a beat. He blitzed through rookie ball and contributed at Single-A for Fort Myers. He probably could have handled High-A and helped with the Cedar Rapids Kernels Midwest League title. Jenkins is already preparing for 2024, and while he will be less than 12 months removed from high school, betting against a meteoric rise doesn’t seem like a good proposition. He’s probably not making it to The Show in the upcoming season, but getting to Minnesota, specifically St. Paul, would be an incredible outcome.

11. Kala'i Rosario
Drafted in the fifth round of the 2020 MLB Draft, the performance of Rosario (and Marco Raya) has helped to withstand the blow of missing on Aaron Sabato. Rosario had an .832 OPS as a 20-year-old at High-A Cedar Rapids, and his 21 homers indicate that he has come into his power. The strikeouts are still substantial, so reigning that in as he develops is a must, but there’s a legitimate power hitter here. Minnesota sent Rosario to the Arizona Fall League this year, and he’s hit five homers in his first 15 games. Continued development is needed for the Hawaii native, but he’s still young, and seeing what his season looks like at Double-A should be fun.

15. Cory Lewis
It’s easy to call Lewis’ season the best among the pitchers on the farm, given he won both the Twins Daily Minor League Pitcher of the Year award and the same designation from Minnesota themselves. He was a 9th round pick that immediately made noise, and while he throws a knuckleball, he’s not a traditional knuckleballer. Lewis was an integral part of the Kernels championship run, and after posting solid numbers with Fort Myers, he got better when he went up a level. Lewis recently turned 23-years-old and should begin the year at Double-A. That would put him in play as a potential late-season option for a major league debut should things go well. Lewis doesn’t have the ceiling of Raya, but he could elevate to David Festa prospect status with Minnesota by sometime in 2024.

Here are a couple of names that saw their stock fall in 2023:

13. Connor Prielipp
The second-round pick in 2022 was coming off an injury when selected and hadn’t pitched since 2021 for Alabama. Minnesota took the time to get him back healthy, but it resulted in just 6 2/3 innings before going back under the knife. There’s no question that Prielipp has the skills to be an ace pitcher, but his inability to stay healthy has been problematic for years. He hasn’t done anything statistically to account for his fall, but being unavailable while others pass him by has dropped him out of the Twins top 10.

14. Yasser Mercedes
Mercedes came stateside in 2023 and saw a substantial dip in production. He was just 18 years old but dropped over .300 points in OPS while playing in just 25 games. His Dominican Summer League numbers still reflect his abilities, but it’s a reminder that international youth can be challenging to project. The hope would be that Mercedes can remain healthy in 2024 and spend a significant portion of the season playing for Fort Myers. He’s a speed and power threat who already has a good idea of the strike zone. The athleticism in the outfield plays, and that combination is an exciting one to dream about.

17. Simeon Woods Richardson
Acquired as the second piece in the Jose Berrios trade alongside Austin Martin, it was more of a learning year for the former top-100 prospect. The success from 2022 evaporated, and his one major league outing went terribly. Woods Richardson threw a career-high amount of innings, but he looked ineffective for most of them. There was a positive trend at the end of the season, but the gaudy walk rate continued to hold him back. This offseason is an important one for the former Blue Jays prospect, and ensuring he’s committed to training and focused on taking a step forward will show up in 2024.

What prospects are you most excited about in the season ahead? Is there a name or two you might be worried about?

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Really like your list - short and to the point. I'm not too worried about Prielipp now because he will need time to recover and get back to just playing a little baseball. We should check back on Prielipp next August. 

In the upper minors (guys who played AA or AAA this year) I'm interested to see how David Festa does after a winter to adjust to what he experienced this past year. The ceiling for him looks good. Festa is still inexperienced but could be coming fast. I'm also ready to see what Austin Martin can do at the next level.

There are a pile of other guys I'm planning to watch and follow next season. Among those I believe could take big steps are: Byron Chourio, Ben Ross, Tanner Hall, Luke Keaschall, C. J. Culpepper, and Cory Lewis. Of course we should be excited to see how Charlee Soto and Brandon Winokur manage in their first full year of pro ball. Finally, next year there will be eyes on two players who Twins fans hope can take a big leap forward: Marco Raya and Emmanuel Rodriguez. I'm hoping both reach and succeed in AAA next season after proving their dominance of AA. 

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I agree.  I'm locked in on Brooks Lee.  Can he impress enough in spring training to break camp with the team or does he need a month or two in St. Paul?  Emmanuel Rodriguez is another I'm excited about.  Does he make it up to the Twins some time this year or is 2025 the target. 

Finally, like everyone else, I'm interested to see how many levels Walker Jenkins conquers next season with an eye on arriving for good with the Twins in 2025.  Charlie Soto is my final guy.  Heard great things about him after we drafted him, he seemed like a steal.  Then virtually nothing, as was expected.  How does he do out of the gate and how many levels does he move next year?  Is 2 the limit if he meets expectations?  

The other thing is how well do guys like Lewis, Julien, Wallner and Varland do in their 2nd MLB season?  I think it's safe to say that expectations for each of them are very high.  Will anyone suffer a sophomore slump?  Who, if any of them will exceed expectations?  Will Varland start or come out of the bullpen?

We're all expecting Lewis to be a superstar and hope he can play 150 games.  That's not really unreasonable.  But Lee and Wallner are key guys in that, if the Twins have a lot of confidence in them, they could very well pick up the options on both Polanco and Kepler and then trade one or both to cut payroll and fortify other areas. 

And as I write this I realize I should probably mention Austin Martin.  Is he a viable option in CF?  How close is he?  I don't think Buxton can be counted on for anything but I also don't want to pay Taylor $8 million a year when I expect his offense to fall off a cliff next year.  Should a trade for Tyler O'Neill be made?  Can Martin step in and play good "D" in CF and hit 9th?  I'd like to see Martin go play CF for a team in the Dominican and see how it goes.  

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I’m curious why Festa wasn’t added to the AFL roster, unless the FO thinks he is too advanced to the league or he needs the rest.

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5 hours ago, Otaknam said:

I’m curious why Festa wasn’t added to the AFL roster, unless the FO thinks he is too advanced to the league or he needs the rest.

I'm fine with it but kind of surprised Jenkins moved ahead of Lee. 

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I'll be curious so see how Charlee Soto does when he finally throws some pitches. He's young, so I'm guessing he starts at the lowest A level, but don't think he'll move up any or at least too many levels the first year. 

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19 hours ago, saviking said:

I'm fine with it but kind of surprised Jenkins moved ahead of Lee. 

It's kind of hard not to get excited about the massive upside of Jenkins, and so far he's been proving it. I'm still a big fan of Lee, but Jenkins does have a higher ceiling.

Keaschall is pretty interesting and rising in my mind. he had zero problems moving into low A after basically getting an orientation to pro baseball in rookie ball and then got a quick promotion to high A where he had no problems in his short stint there either. He looks like someone who starts in High A in 2024 with an eye towards another early promotion to AA. Sure looks like he has the bat to impress. Looking forward to seeing how his power progresses and defense holds up.

Kala'i Rosario is definitely a guy to watch as well. The ball explodes off his bat and if he can make enough contact he's going to be a dangerous hitter. He had a great year in Cedar Rapids, he's started punishing the ball in the AFL, and looks very ready for AAA at 21.

twins have some fun prospects to watch, for sure.

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Since no one has mentioned him I am interested in Ricardo Olivar.  He was MVP of the complex league and real good year last year in A ball.  A catcher who can play center field is exciting to me.  If he stays at catcher he has good speed and mobility  which is appealing.  Also having a catcher who can play in the outfield seems like nice position flexibility as well.

Danny De Andrade is also interesting.  Super young for A ball and held his own there.  Seems to be coming into  his power and might be a plus defender. It is going to be interesting to see how well he handles High A where lot's of hitters seem to struggle.

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On 10/31/2023 at 10:21 PM, TopGunn#22 said:

I agree.  I'm locked in on Brooks Lee.  Can he impress enough in spring training to break camp with the team or does he need a month or two in St. Paul?  Emmanuel Rodriguez is another I'm excited about.  Does he make it up to the Twins some time this year or is 2025 the target. 

Finally, like everyone else, I'm interested to see how many levels Walker Jenkins conquers next season with an eye on arriving for good with the Twins in 2025.  Charlie Soto is my final guy.  Heard great things about him after we drafted him, he seemed like a steal.  Then virtually nothing, as was expected.  How does he do out of the gate and how many levels does he move next year?  Is 2 the limit if he meets expectations?  

The other thing is how well do guys like Lewis, Julien, Wallner and Varland do in their 2nd MLB season?  I think it's safe to say that expectations for each of them are very high.  Will anyone suffer a sophomore slump?  Who, if any of them will exceed expectations?  Will Varland start or come out of the bullpen?

We're all expecting Lewis to be a superstar and hope he can play 150 games.  That's not really unreasonable.  But Lee and Wallner are key guys in that, if the Twins have a lot of confidence in them, they could very well pick up the options on both Polanco and Kepler and then trade one or both to cut payroll and fortify other areas. 

And as I write this I realize I should probably mention Austin Martin.  Is he a viable option in CF?  How close is he?  I don't think Buxton can be counted on for anything but I also don't want to pay Taylor $8 million a year when I expect his offense to fall off a cliff next year.  Should a trade for Tyler O'Neill be made?  Can Martin step in and play good "D" in CF and hit 9th?  I'd like to see Martin go play CF for a team in the Dominican and see how it goes.  

Thanks for the information. I agree with most of it, but I would go after Taylor because he more-or-less held the ship together in CF and could be counted on day-in and day-out. If someone else steps up (like Martin...but as you mention, 'D' up the middle needs to be strong), we can think about making some trades at the deadline. Or, let's go out and get a centerfielder who plays good 'D' and can hit (my choice is Nootbar, who I believe could be had for a reasonable exchange).

I'm not very worried about Varland. He looks confident and he gets enough movement on his pitches. He looked better than Ober to me albeit with a very limited view. I didn't get a chance to see Paddack. I wish I could have. As for those still in the minors, I am taking TD members' assessments to heart. I want to see Lee and Jenkins because of all the hype.

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On 10/31/2023 at 2:25 PM, saviking said:

I'm fine with it but kind of surprised Jenkins moved ahead of Lee. 

Jenkins is the shiny new toy with a high ceiling. 4 years younger and most likely to be a season behind Lee in arriving at the show. @tony&rodney I agree 💯 % with your comments/watch list. 
whats really gonna be crazy is possibly watching Evan Carter and Wyatt Langford in the Rangers outfield for the next decade. Good grief!!!

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Not my first thought but I am interested to watch how the 2023 pitching draft class progresses. Lots of college arms that may play well in pro ball relatively quick. Who will be the next later round pick to climb thru the system the fastest. 

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My biggest concern is that Julien / Wallner / Varland don't take the Miranda / Larnach or even, to a certain extent, Kiriloff route.

 

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