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Did The Twins Get What They Paid For?


Dave The Dastardly

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Twins Video

Shortstop Angst


According to Team Rankings (https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/stat/double-plays-per-game) the Twins ranked 23 out of 30 teams in double plays per game with an average of .73. Pre-Correa (2021) the Twins averaged .85 per game. Twins finish in the division? 3rd in 2022, 5th in 2021.
Number One on the list, St. Louis at 1.11 per game.
Last on the List? NY Yankees at .65.
Which of the three teams made it to the play-offs? Cards and Yankees. Ponder that.

Fielding https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2022-fielding-leaders.shtml

Double Plays Turned at SS 2022

1. Mateo Baltimore 91
2. Seager Texas 91
3. Perdomo Arizona 83
4. Lindor NYM 82    
5. Bogaerts Boston 78
21. Correa 51

Putouts at SS 2022

1. Lindor 198
2. Swanson Atlanta 193
3. Baez Detroit 187
4. Rojas Miami 184
5. Mateo 181
15. Correa 157

Assists at SS 2022

1. Mateo 417
2. Seager 407
3. Bogaerts 401
4. Swanson 391
5. Lindor 385
19. Correa 307

Games at SS

1. Swanson 161
2. Turner LA 160
3. Lindor 159
4. Bichette Toronto 157
5. Mateo 149
18. Correa 132

Shortstop Salaries (https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/rankings/salary/shortstop/)

1. Correa $35,100,000
2. Lindor $34,100,000
3. Seager $33,000,000
4. Turner $21,000,000
5. Bogaerts $20,000,000
5. Baez $20,000,000
8. Swanson $10,000,000
15. Rojas $5,500,000
28. Bichette $825,000
32. Mateo $709,500
38. Perdomo $701,300

How badly do we need Correa?

 

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Interesting numbers. But if you look at the 2 world series teams, we're just behind Houston who sits at 122 and only 8 behind the Phillies at 129. So, I don't know if these numbers have any direct correlation to being in the playoffs or not. It is an interesting detail to note about the SS though. Maybe our pitchers were more of a Flyball pitcher than they were Groundball pitcher. I mean the Twin's were 8th in the MLB for the most HR/9 with 1.2, whereas, the Phillies and Astros were towards the least amount of HR/9. 

So, its hard to judge these numbers off anything as there really is no correlation between playoff teams or not. It could show that our pitchers don't pitch to GB contact but instead let our outfielders take the outs more than the infielders.

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I don’t see any relevance to these numbers.

They can be largely attributed to uncontrollable inputs (on his part).

Games played can be discarded.  If management elects to not play the platinum gold glove winning shortstop for 30 games a year - they’re just morons.  Some of this year’s issue is due to injury - but he’s largely durable, thus should be playing 150+ at shortstop going forward (for anyone but Baldelli).

Double plays and things like that require good players and pitchers around you.  Put outs in general is unusable in terms of projecting.  There is no way of correlating anything there.

So, do we need him?

Do we need him to continue being losers?  No.

Would bringing back one of the best all around players in baseball (very durable and consistent) improve our chances of winning?  Of course.  No brainer.

This pattern of numerous fans attempting to somehow “debunk” Correa as a premier player, while simultaneously fawning over the already broken down body of Luis Arraez as if he’s a first ballot Hall of Famer, is something I’ll never understand.

I know the comeback will be “but the money.”  Here’s what I say:

Nobody cares a slap hitting first baseman, to be frank.  The two aren’t even on the same planet in terms of marketability.  So, how much more does he really cost the team than your next guy?  How many season tickets were sold in the days following the Correa signing?  How many people have gone and bought season tickets because they love watching Arrawz flip a single in front of the left fielder?  People look at these things in the context of salary cap or limits, which isn’t completely valid.  A dollar spent on Carlos Correa has more utility than the same dollar spread across 3 middling players.  Both on and off the field.  

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The only problem I have with Correa getting the one-year salary (or total 3-year offer), is the bar that it may set for keeping players that have worked years in the minors and busted their butt as minimum wage Twins, and then deserve a payday. Who is to say a Brooks Lee might not be as valuable someday.

Will the Twins ever again be able to make a comparable offer (one year with opt outs) again?

And, yes, "blowing" a wad on a Big Name doesn't necessarily make the team better, even if the player performs at or above their average play. 

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7 minutes ago, Rosterman said:

The only problem I have with Correa getting the one-year salary (or total 3-year offer), is the bar that it may set for keeping players that have worked years in the minors and busted their butt as minimum wage Twins, and then deserve a payday. Who is to say a Brooks Lee might not be as valuable someday.

 

If they are good enough to be in the majors, permanently, they WILL BE in the majors, other wise, they belong in the minors.

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I don't think any of our starters were GB type pitchers, and most of the pen was put together with strikeout type of guys. I watched all the games they plated the last couple years and I don't recall seeing any hits on the ground that looked like Correa should have gotten, However, there have been others when C4 wasn't playing that I thought he would have made plays on.

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Stats say Correa was an appreciably better player than Jeremy Pena this season. But Houston was still willing to let him walk and swap out Pena as their SS. Pena's reg season results were good, but Correa was better individually. But the Astros won more games in reg season than '21, won another pennant, and Pena was alcs mvp. For 34.3 million less than Correa made.

Its still a team game, Somebody needs Correas talent to help them fill out a roster filled with championship caliber potential. It wont be the Twins or Astros. The Astros team functions quite well with his replacement. Correa by himself does not move the needle much for Twins. They are just slightly better than awful with him. Yankees or Dodgers are good fits, with legit needs to fill out their teams. Twins need to find a few more of their own Jeremy Pena's to make spending on the Correa's of the world worth it.

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On 10/28/2022 at 2:15 PM, Beast said:

 

Games played can be discarded.  If management elects to not play the platinum gold glove winning shortstop for 30 games a year - they’re just morons.  Some of this year’s issue is due to injury - but he’s largely durable, thus should be playing 150+ at shortstop going forward (for anyone but Baldelli).

Somehow coming to the conclusion that Baldelli is responsible for Correa playing less than the leaders at his position is mind boggling. Baldelli, huh?

Gleeman came up with a stat (which I just verified on Baseball Reference) that after Carlos returned from his second injury stint he played something like 96 out of 102 games. A 152 game pace. I looked at it another way. He had 2 stints on the IL missing 21 games. In the 141 games where he wasn't injured he played 132. That is also a 152 game pace. 

I hope next year there is a least some reduction in people blaming Baldelli for everything they don't like and every outcome that isn't favorable. How about some reasoned discussion instead! 

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Turning double plays doesn't correlate strongly with winning.  Just look at the list. 

Not just a one-year fluke either.  That site offers stats going back to 2007; the top DP team that year finished dead last in the NL.

I wouldn't put Jeffers or Miranda or Larnach at SS, but it could be that anyone reasonably competent to turn grounders into outs on a reliable basis is good enough, and the main thing you want in this day and age is the bat.

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Is there a double play opportunities converted rate out there? Anyone know? 

Maybe something similar?

Otherwise this seems more dependent on the pitcher than it does the fielders.

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On 11/3/2022 at 6:11 PM, Minny505 said:

Is there a double play opportunities converted rate out there? Anyone know? 

Maybe something similar?

Otherwise this seems more dependent on the pitcher than it does the fielders.

That'd be a helpful stat.  I also think that looking at the raw numbers in this article does not take into account the number of games played by each SS nor the ground ball rate of each pitcher/team.  A percentage type statistic would seem to be more accurate.

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On 11/2/2022 at 6:47 PM, Game7-91 said:

Stats say Correa was an appreciably better player than Jeremy Pena this season. But Houston was still willing to let him walk and swap out Pena as their SS. Pena's reg season results were good, but Correa was better individually. But the Astros won more games in reg season than '21, won another pennant, and Pena was alcs mvp. For 34.3 million less than Correa made.

Its still a team game, Somebody needs Correas talent to help them fill out a roster filled with championship caliber potential. It wont be the Twins or Astros. The Astros team functions quite well with his replacement. Correa by himself does not move the needle much for Twins. They are just slightly better than awful with him. Yankees or Dodgers are good fits, with legit needs to fill out their teams. Twins need to find a few more of their own Jeremy Pena's to make spending on the Correa's of the world worth it.

It is still a team game. Which is why the twins fell apart this year and the Astros didn't. MN: 4th most players on the IL in 2022. Houston: 4th least. MN: 2nd most days lost to injury in MLB. Houston: 3rd least.

healthy, the Twins had a quality roster (most evidenced by their early season success, before they were down to starting the 8th OF on their depth chart). When you have a decent enough roster, then you also need star power to compete at the highest levels and get you through the playoffs. It's where stud pitching really comes into play, but also at other positions as well. Correa's an elite talent and that's where I want to spend the team's big dollars.

Pena is still under team control, and having young players step up while on small salaries is almost always important (and worked out nicely for the Twins in 2019, when Garver was making $575K, Berrios $620K, Sano was at $2.7M, Buxton $1.8M, Rogers $1.5M, May $900K and Polanco & Rosario didn't clear $8M between them).

Finding a home-grown SS is something the Twins have been trying to accomplish since God was a corporal and we haven't been very good at it...but that's about the only way you get that kind of production at Pena's price. Our most successful attempts in the last 40 years are probably: Greg Gagne, who never made an all-star game and we acquired from NY as a minor leaguer. Jason Bartlet, whose 1 all-star appearance game after leaving the twins...and we didn't draft or sign him either. Christian Guzman, who did make an all-star team as a twins SS...once, and we traded for him too. And then there's Jorge Polanco, who made the all-star team at SS, but was moved off the position because he's not very good defensively at SS and couldn't stay healthy there. (and even injured this season had a better year at 2B than all but one of his years in MLB at SS)

It might happen with Royce Lewis when he recovers from his latest knee injury, or Brooks Lee, or Noah Miller...but we've missed a lot here. Correa is a finished product and ready to go.

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