Reviewing last year's FO trades

[gunnarthor]

Thought it might be interesting to see how the FO's trades from last year look. Apologize if someone else already posted this. I didn't see it if they had. They made 7 trades, although several were pretty small.

 

1) Miguel Diaz for Justin Haley. These were the two rule v trades. Haley pitched in 10 games for us last year and was returned to Boston. Diaz was knocked around a lot for SD but is only 23 and pitching in AAA for them. Neither is anything great but Diaz seems to be the better player.

2) Pat Light for cash. 

3) Danny Santana for Kevin Chapman. Santana is still on Atlanta's ML roster, Chapman was released by the Twins a month after this trade. Both suck but Santana seems to be the better player on the basis that he's still in the majors.

4) Huascar Ynoa for Jaime Garcia and John Recker. Garcia made one start for us and was traded again, Recker was released after the year. Twins thought they needed a starter but turns out Garcia made all of one start for us before we traded him and relied on our in-house options to start the rest of the year. 

5) Jaime Garcia for Dennis Enns and Zack Littell. One of the bigger trades from last year. These two trades basically moved Ynoa for Enns and Littell. Enns and Littell cost us two 40 man roster spots over the offseason which could have been used on Burdi and Chargois. Ynoa is 20 and putting up nice numbers in A ball and is Atlanta's #21 ranked prospect. Littellis our #20 ranked prospect with the upside of a backend starter whereas Ynoa has FOR upside, even if he's not likely to reach it. Enns was DFA'd earlier this year. Both Littell and Enns have been rocked in limited ML playing time. 

6) John Ryan Murphy for Gabriel Moya. Murphy played some in Arizona but is in the minors. Moya has played a bit in the majors and not been good but it's a small sample size and his minor league numbers are solid. Hard to complain about this trade for the Twins.

7) Kintzler for Tyler Watson.  This was the controversial trade. Kinztler pitched well for Washington after he was traded although he took a loss in a post-season game for them. Watson isn't on our top 30 prospect lists, is 21 and not putting up great numbers in low A ball. Hard to spin this as a good trade for us.

 

Not sure the FO made any strong trades. The best seems to be Murphy for Moya. Obviously, Ynoa was the best prospect we gave up and how you feel about him in relation to Littell will form your opinion of those two trades. At the same time, these were mostly small trades. Watson's scouting reports suggested some upside but we haven't really seen it, at least not yet. I've been surprised on how bad Littell looked in his limited opportunities in the majors and his krate in AAA is actually slightly below league average while his walk rate is above league average. I think if the FO had simply done nothing, we could still have a system with Ynoa, Burdi and Chargois instead of Littell, Enns and Watson. I think I'd have preferred the first group.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I still like the Littell trade personally. I think he has a bit more upside than you do, but I see your point. 

 

The jury is still out on most of them. Watson in particular I think could turn out to be something really good.

[Han Joelo]

When you distill it down, I have to agree--I'd take what they had over what they got as well.  Not to mention 40 man spots for D-Rod and perhaps Goodrum.

 

Did rostering Haley trickle down to the loss of anyone interesting vis a vie the 40 man?

[alarp33]

 

 I think if the FO had simply done nothing, we could still have a system with Ynoa, Burdi and Chargois instead of Littell, Enns and Watson. I think I'd have preferred the first group.

 

They could have kept Chargois if they wanted too, they didn't. There was plenty of other fat on the 40 man besides Littell. Burdi has pitched like 20 innings in 3 seasons. 

 

I for one continue to think the Garcia trades were great. 

 

 

 

 

3) Danny Santana for Kevin Chapman. Santana is still on Atlanta's ML roster, Chapman was released by the Twins a month after this trade. Both suck but Santana seems to be the better player on the basis that he's still in the majors.

 

 

 

Danny Santana was horrendous in ATL, like he was in MN and was designated for assignment

[gunnarthor]

 

 

 

Did rostering Haley trickle down to the loss of anyone interesting vis a vie the 40 man?

I don't think so. Maybe Turner? But I could be wrong.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Danny Santana was horrendous in ATL, like he was in MN and was designated for assignment

Yup. Actually, Danny Santana was non-tendered last winter and re-signed with Atlanta on a minor league deal. He somehow got called up on June 22 this year, but was DFA within a month and outrighted back to AAA, so he should be a minor league free agent again this offseason.

[big dog]

Interesting article, thanks. 

 

Chargois had a great first month with LA, had a couple rough outings in May, was sent down, and is now back.  Since his return:

 

9 appearances 

7.2 IP

3 H, 1 ER

10 K

0 BB

WHIP 0.39

 

I'd rather have him than any of the others, though I have not given up on Littell at all.  Ynoa is too far away for me to have regrets, especially given the 40-man roster challenges the team is going to face in the next couple of years.  Murphy had a spectacular few weeks there through June 1, but his work since has been terrible.  No regrets, other than that Molly is still trotting out Bobby Wilson far too often.  That's not a problem that Murphy solves. 

[Tom Froemming]

Something I noticed the other day and found interesting, here are some of the young starters in the org listed from youngest to oldest:

 

Lewis Thorpe 22 & 251 days
Zack Littell 22 & 300 days
Charlie Barnes 22 & 304 days
Fernando Romero 23 & 220 days
Kohl Stewart 23 & 298 days
Jose Berrios 24 & 66 days
Tyler Wells 23 & 340 days
Stephen Gonsalves 24 & 24 days

 

Littell is a lot younger than I think most people would have guessed. Now that's only valuable to a certain degree, but I think he was a very solid pickup. I had to list Berrios into the mix here just so we can all remember just how bright the future may be for the Twins

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

 Murphy played some in Arizona but is in the minors

Murphy has been on Arizona's MLB roster all season. He had a HR barrage early in the year but is ice cold again, down to a 70 OPS+. That's still better than Arizona's other two catchers Avila and Mathis, but not by much. Weird arrangement there -- all 3 of those guys have 36-37 starts at catcher so far. Seems like a waste of a roster spot.

[big dog]

 

Murphy has been on Arizona's MLB roster all season. He had a HR barrage early in the year but is ice cold again, down to a 70 OPS+. That's still better than Arizona's other two catchers Avila and Mathis, but not by much. Weird arrangement there -- all 3 of those guys have 36-37 starts at catcher so far. Seems like a waste of a roster spot.

Seems like a waste of three roster spots...

[gunnarthor]

 

Murphy has been on Arizona's MLB roster all season. He had a HR barrage early in the year but is ice cold again, down to a 70 OPS+. That's still better than Arizona's other two catchers Avila and Mathis, but not by much. Weird arrangement there -- all 3 of those guys have 36-37 starts at catcher so far. Seems like a waste of a roster spot.

Yep, my bad. Still, I think I'd rather have Moya.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Littell is a lot younger than I think most people would have guessed. Now that's only valuable to a certain degree, but I think he was a very solid pickup. 

In isolation, perhaps, But in the context of the Twins having all of those other young guys already, plus 4-5 returning "vets" at the MLB level, plus requiring a 40-man spot, it was fairly questionable.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Watson in particular I think could turn out to be something really good.

Watson has had a rough year for sure; fortunately, he's not Rule 5 eligible yet this winter so we can get another year to evaluate him without committing a roster spot.

[yarnivek1972]

Murphy has been on Arizona's MLB roster all season. He had a HR barrage early in the year but is ice cold again, down to a 70 OPS+. That's still better than Arizona's other two catchers Avila and Mathis, but not by much. Weird arrangement there -- all 3 of those guys have 36-37 starts at catcher so far. Seems like a waste of a roster spot.

With no DH, they have an automatic extra roster spot. They are also “only” carrying 12 pitchers. Meaning they start every game with 5 bench players. Two more than the Twins.

[Han Joelo]

 

Something I noticed the other day and found interesting, here are some of the young starters in the org listed from youngest to oldest:

 

Lewis Thorpe 22 & 251 days
Zack Littell 22 & 300 days
Charlie Barnes 22 & 304 days
Fernando Romero 23 & 220 days
Kohl Stewart 23 & 298 days
Jose Berrios 24 & 66 days
Tyler Wells 23 & 340 days
Stephen Gonsalves 24 & 24 days

 

Littell is a lot younger than I think most people would have guessed. Now that's only valuable to a certain degree, but I think he was a very solid pickup. I had to list Berrios into the mix here just so we can all remember just how bright the future may be for the Twins

This is great, Tom.  Interesting perspective.  Berrios 200 days older than Romero--only six months.  I think the success Berrios has had should be celebrated--primarily by him for his hard work, but also it should serve as a reminder that the Twins can identify and develop elite players.  There were actually a few good pitchers taken before him in the 2012 draft--but among HSers, only Giolito is even in the same conversation.

 

Cherry picking the ten players taken directly before Berrios--oh, never mind, I'll just note that the vaunted Yankees took Ty Hensley, HS RHP, two picks before him.

 

And I am now completely off topic.

[Vanimal46]

They've had activity for sure, but nothing has really panned out so far with trades and free agent signings. Maybe they're not geniuses.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Did rostering Haley trickle down to the loss of anyone interesting vis a vie the 40 man?

Not directly, no. But it could have hindered our ability to claim other players on waivers. Blake Parker and  Kirby Yates were relievers claimed off waivers while Haley was on our roster (and while we had top waiver priority). Also Jesus Aguilar and Scooter Gennett as position players, although I'd guess neither of those guys would have appealed to us at the time anyway (redundant with Vargas and Escobar/Adrianza, respectively).

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

This is great, Tom.  Interesting perspective.  Berrios 200 days older than Romero--only six months.

Well, Romero also missed two whole years due to injury. He may have only been about 6 months behind Berrios in terms of development before he got hurt.

 

Not to say the development of Berrios hasn't been very good. (And health is a positive part of that too, although a little harder to quantity/credit.)

[Han Joelo]

 

Well, Romero also missed two whole years due to injury. He may have only been about 6 months behind Berrios in terms of development before he got hurt.

 

Not to say the development of Berrios hasn't been very good. (And health is a positive part of that too, although a little harder to quantity/credit.)

True enough.  I was going to add to my original post the idea that in the end, so much of player development ends up being somewhat "luck" based.  More of a response to the idea that the Twins are hopeless and Boston or New York is infallible.  Boston took Brian Johnson with the pick directly before Berrios--better then Hensley, but no La Machina!

 

But here I am discussing a previous regime, way off the OP's topic.

[Han Joelo]

As pertains to this FO--I'm a strong believer in experiential learning, and perhaps this FO has taken the knowledge and experience gleaned from last year's moves, and improved upon them this year.  Maybe this year's returns wouldn't have been as good if they hadn't executed last year's moves--and non-moves, like the Dozier-to-the-Dodgers deal--hadn't been experienced.

 

Impossible to quantify, which is frustrating for some.

[kenbuddha]

 

They've had activity for sure, but nothing has really panned out so far with trades and free agent signings. Maybe they're not geniuses.

Geniuses? No, but I much prefer their approach to the previous FO.

[Otto von Ballpark]

What's interesting, last year I was open to the idea they were "targeting" specific prospects -- Littell and Watson, primarily.

 

But this year, they've acquired so many more prospects, it seems more likely they just had fewer assets to deal last year. Not that they don't care about any of the prospects, of course -- but they probably aren't targeting them, or at least not as many as we might have thought last year.

[howieramone2]

 

They've had activity for sure, but nothing has really panned out so far with trades and free agent signings. Maybe they're not geniuses.

Coming in 2nd on Whatsamatta Yu makes them geniuses. 

[Vanimal46]

Geniuses? No, but I much prefer their approach to the previous FO.

I'm not sure if their approach is all that much different compared to the last one... There's a good chance TR keeps more veterans to try and win more games this season. But overall the last FO supplemented existing core players with FAs and trades.

 

This current regime has taken larger financial risks for FAs and missed badly. They need to do better this upcoming winter.

[Oxtung]

I wasn’t happy with the Ynoa for Garcia trade last year and it looks worse now. IMO, you don’t trade pitchers with front of the rotation potential for anything and certainly not for a swing man, which is what Littell seems destined to be. Given the state of today’s game and how hard it is to find above average pitching, the “reward” of Littell seems little compared to the potential risk of Ynoa turning into a good pitcher. I’ll take the small chance of greatness over the marginally better chance of back of the rotation starter every time.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Coming in 2nd on Whatsamatta Yu makes them geniuses. 

So 29 MLB GM's are geniuses (and we're perhaps less "genius" than 28 of them). And the only one who isn't a genius has won 3 of the last 14 World Series titles. Got it.

[howieramone2]

 

So 29 MLB GM's are geniuses (and we're perhaps less "genius" than 28 of them). And the only one who isn't a genius has won 3 of the last 14 World Series titles. Got it.

Only one team came in 2nd and that was the good guys. Why don't you go back and review the Darvish meltdown thread. You figured very prominently in it.

[Dman]

First let me say I liked the trade for Littell.  At the time it looked like it strengthened the upper half of the system for a player (Ynoa) that looked pretty far away.  At the time Enns numbers in the minors looked like he could at least be a decent reliever if not a 5th starter.  To me the trade seemed like a good move at the time. 

 

With Enns pretty much imploding and Littell a bit shaky at the higher levels it isn't looking quite as good as I hoped it would.

 

I haven't seen a lot of kind reviews from analysts on Littell.  Fangraphs admits he has been successful  but really questions whether he can translate his stuff to MLB.  While they are not always right their summary does appear spot on to me.  They do admit he has been successful but give him a 5th starter role at best.  He is still fairly young so lots of things can happen that would allow his stuff to play up but his upside appears limited and he was the headliner in that trade.

 

Ynoa has more potential upside but he could just as easily end up a reliever as well.  I think Atlanta wins that trade based on potential but we'll have to wait and see what the actual results are since both players have potential pitfalls. 

 

Trading is tough because you never know what can happen to players as they develop, but I do think the Twins learned a lesson. This time they looked for more potential high upside by grabbing younger players when they had leverage.  Some of the players they traded for this year they just weren't going to get much upside based on the value of players we were trading.

 

I don't think the FO has killed it on any trades so far.  Maybe the Esco and Pressly trades will change that but there is a long way to go for those players before we know what we really ended up getting.  A lot of the trades listed seem fairly neutral to me.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Only one team came in 2nd and that was the good guys.

Narrowly avoiding a mistake might be better than actually making it, but it does not necessarily make one a "genius".

[Mike Sixel]

 

Only one team came in 2nd and that was the good guys. Why don't you go back and review the Darvish meltdown thread. You figured very prominently in it.

 

Clearly this FO wanted him badly, since they offered the second most money....so I don't understand what you are arguing.

 

As for last year's trades, meh. I think I only really care about the Ynoa trade. The rest were kind of blah players for blah players.

 

This year's trades are very different, starting with the Odorizzi trades, and then the sell off trades.