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Minny505

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Everything posted by Minny505

  1. Minny505
    I hope they contacted the Mets to propose Kepler for Guillorme and Ruf. That nets us a LHB SS with 3 years of control and a RH power bat to play COF/1B. That fills two needs with one trade.
  2. Minny505
    As the Twins are currently constructed, they have one of the widest distributions of win outcomes in the league. They could have Buxton, Kirilloff, Larnach, Polanco, Lewis, Grey, and Mahle, all stay relatively healthy and they might walk to the Central Division Winner's Circle with 97 wins. Or they could have all those guys get injured again and the team finishes in 4th place in the Central with 97 losses (sorry Tigers). Neither outcome would surprise me, and neither would probably surprise you either (yes, I'm breaking the 4th wall). They still need an upgrade in the rotation, a starting-caliber/LHB platoon SS, and a right handed bat that can pseudo-play COF/1B. That might at least limit the downside to 91 losses.
  3. Minny505
    Because the part-time player being acquired is a better fit for the Twins roster than the part-time player they would be trading away.
  4. Minny505
    I am just going to have to agree to disagree with you on this Nash. Guillorme would be an upgrade at SS until Lewis is ready and buy the team time until he is completely ready to take over again. With all his time missed over the last few years, there may be rust. A month of play in 2022 is not enough to convince me he will be ready to step in full time as SS at any point in 2022. Same with Lee. And Guillorme is an upgrade to the roster for the next few seasons. He is an upgrade at SS until a prospect is ready and is an upgrade at backup SS and utility infielder once one of those prospects are ready. I'll give up B level talent to get B level talent if the fit is better on the roster. The B level talent the Mets have is a better fit than the B level talent the Twins have creating a logjam in left handed hitting corner outfielders or mediocre SP that are likely to be decent RP. Because right now, If Farmer goes down for a month on April 12th, it could truly torpedo the season as there is no one on the 40 that can handle the position on a daily basis. I really think you are overestimating the exchange rate for a player like Guillorme. I doubt anyone the Twins would trade for him would come back to haunt them. Guillorme's just not that kind of talent. But he's a perfect fit on the Twins roster for the next few seasons.
  5. Minny505
    I don't understand this argument. Plenty of championship teams platoon a position on the field, including the 2022 World Series Winning Astros. The Twins are not likely to be a very good baseball team in 2023, but that they would have a platoon at SS is not at all a reason why.
  6. Minny505
    I came here to say the same thing. This is actually a great development for the Twins in getting a quality big league SS. They could use an OFer, specifically a LHB. That role on the Mets will get twice the playing time a 5th IF will. Offer up Larnach or Kepler to get Guillorme, Ruf (for some right handed 1B power), and a High-A lottery ticket. More realistically a fungible RP should be enough. Offer up Canterino, Winder, Megill, or Sands, if a one-for-one swap is what the team is looking for. Guillorme and Farmer project for a 2+ WAR SS platoon for $7mil. That's a great deal.
  7. Minny505
    Reports were mainly that he wanted to go to a winner, which is why he didn't even really give the Giants a shot. I sure hope the Twins offered more than 6/162. That's a very reasonable contract for a pitcher who is one of the Top 10 SPs in MLB per IP.
  8. Minny505
    I like this as a Plan B to Rodon. Excess cap space to afford the 1 year bounce back contract at an exchange rate of little to nothing.
  9. Minny505
    I love this idea! He and Farmer make a roughly 3 WAR platoon at SS. That's right in line with, if not at a slight discount on, the going rate on the FA market for that level of production. And depending on what the Twins offer, the Giants would pick up a portion of that one year salary. But I never considered his 10-and-5 rights. That complicates things. That said, there are other solid shortstops in the trade market that are likely available at a decent exchange rate. Unfortunately that can't be said of the SP trade market.
  10. Minny505
    Because baseball is more than numbers and it sounds like the whole clubhouse has turned against him. He's toxic in San Diego. That would be the reason for the trade. As the SD local @Wizard11put it, Preller is more likely to trade Tatis than Kim. A strong, but possibly accurate, statement. In trading Tatis, the Padres get rid of a clubhouse cancer and free up 20mil+ a season, to spend in other areas of need, such as a Machado extension, a bat upgrade to get the majority of DH reps, or more pitching depth. No doubt Tatis is a superior talent with MVP potential, but like the trade of Roberto Osuna, Kyle Loshe, Matt Garza, etc, sometimes a team just needs to trade a guy, even if the value of the return is not near enough for the talent. Other things matter to some teams. I do suspect it would take more than Larnach and/or Kepler. It would certainly become a bidding war by teams and MLB ready talent likely wins out against upside due to the competitive cycle the Padres are in.
  11. Minny505
    I don't think the Tatis contract is moveable without SD picking up a large portion, which kind of defeats the purpose of trading him. That said, if Preller will pick up a chunk of the contract, take it down 80mil total, to 20AAV or so, I'm in. 12/260 seems well worth it. If the fanbase was willing to embrace Correa, then Tatis won't have a problem. He'd make a killer OFer and SS insurance should Lewis and Lee both need to be moved off the position. What Tatis did was just being a stupid kid. What Correa did was much more malicious. Do you think Preller would do something like that for Larnach or Kepler? Padres need a corner OFer.
  12. Minny505
    Complete agree. While some see SS as the biggest hole, I see the rotation. If Rodon pitches 120 innings, he is still a 3 win improvement over their current 5th starter. If Correa plays 140 games, he is maybe 2 wins better than a combination of Farmer, prospects, and/or a trade acquisition. Correa is a higher floor, while Rodon is a higher ceiling. I'll take the upside of Rodon, especially on the contracts they are likely to get.
  13. Minny505
    I guess I don't understand this. Rizzo and Abreu are comparable 1B to Arraez, but are much older. They both just signed contracts to use as a framework for an Arraez deal on the FA market. Taillon and Walker are comparable SP to Lopez, but are much older. They both just signed contracts to use as a framework for a Lopez deal on the FA market. Arraez probably gets roughly 5/95, while Lopez probably get something around 5/100, using those frameworks. They are about as comparable of players in value as you will find on opposite sides of the ball. Arraez comes with 3 years of below-market-value control, while Lopez comes with 2 years of below-market-value control. SPs, and pitchers as a position at large, generally carry a trade capital premium at the trade deadline that they do not carry with them in the FA market, but I have not noticed this trend during the offseason. Do SPs always have this trade capital premium that they do not carry with them in FA? I'll admit to not understanding trade value as well as FA value. It is more nebulous by nature.
  14. Minny505
    I am genuinely surprised by the lack of interest in Rodon by this board and it makes me think the Twins Daily crowd will never pine for that elusive ACE on the type of contract that is required to sign that level of talent. I'd personally prefer the higher upside signing 9 out of 10 times and the Rodon vs Correa debate represents this perfectly. Despite the likelihood that Correa will require 3+ more years and 3mil+ more in AAV*, the loudest voices here seem prefer, what I can only guess is viewed as, the higher "floor" contract vs the higher "ceiling". Am I grasping the debate correctly? *Based on 11/330 for Correa and 7/189 for Rodon
  15. Minny505
    Why full stop? Getting Rodon would be just as, if not more, valuable. Correa to the Giants means Crawford is available to be traded for by the Twins. A SS platoon of Crawford and Farmer is projected to be about 3 WAR for $14mil for one season. Correa would be better, but would cost twice as much and would be a 10yr commitment. The gap for 2023 is less than 2 WAR. Rodon is replacing Ober, 1 WAR pitcher. Rodon is projected to be just as valuable as Correa, but he makes up a gap of 3+ wins. For roughly the same amount of money, but for half the years, the Twins can improve by about 2 more WAR by signing Rodon instead of Correa. Those 2 wins are valuable. I will half agree with you and say the Twins need to sign Correa OR Rodon, full stop. That does need to happen. But Correa is not the only answer here...and he may not even be the best.
  16. Minny505
    I agree with all the half measure guys listed except Simmons. That one is a bit of revisionism to the history. When Simmons was signed, there was a "We finally have a real SS!" attitude around Twins Territory. He was projected to be a 2 WAR player. That's a solid signing. It didn't work out of course, as he was the biggest flop in free agency that season, turning in a negative WAR and underperforming projections by 2.5+ WAR. Nobody saw THAT kind of cliff coming up ahead. The rest of the guys on that list were expected to be somewhere on the spectrum of bad-to-not-bad. Simmons was expected to be average-to-above-average. That's a huge gap in expectations. Before they ever suited up, Simmons signing was viewed similarly to the Nelson Cruz FA signing. The performance during their first seasons though could not have been more different.
  17. Minny505
    Agree on all points. But that's not a bad Plan B if it needs to go that way.
  18. Minny505
    If Correa prioritizes money, the Giants ownership will vastly outbid the Twins. They just offered $400mil to Judge. Twins's only hope is that Correa wants to win. Because for as far away from winning we may think the Twins are, the Giants are even farther. They have the Dodgers and Padres to leapfrog and I believe even the D-backs are projected to be better than the Giants right now. At least the Twins are the projected #2 team in their division right now, with a shot at winning it.
  19. Minny505
    The dominos are such that if Correa does sign with the Giants, Crawford becomes a good trade target and the Giants will probably pay $8-10mil of his salary. Farmer and Crawford would be projected to be about a 3 WAR SS platoon. That's a good deal for $12-14mil (their combined salaries in this scenario) for one season. We may even be able to get Joey Bart, who is allegedly on the trade block, packaged with Crawford if we give up some value, such as Luis Arraez. (FWIW, I heard an analyst on a non-denominational podcast say that the Giants seem to be one of the best fits for Arraez) This scenario specifically affords a large SP contract...someone like Rodon perhaps? PS - I am completely aware how unlikely all this is, but it does have the potential to match up.
  20. Minny505
    First, great writing. It was very, very long, but your technique is edutainment at it's best! Threw you a follow and hope to read more. I agree with you on Duvall. He might accept a 4th OF, 450 PA type role as the primary CF backup (a role that we sadly know will get to start at least 50 games) and platoon COF. He doesn't have great splits vs LHP, but would be solid. If the Twins decide to trade for Crawford(with Giants paying $10mil) or Guillorme to be the strong side platoon at SS, then adding Drury seems like a good fit as he plays the all the positions and continues the trend of further rebuilding the Reds in Minnesota. (They should wear hats for a game where they replace the C in TC with the Reds C logo. I'd buy one.) Myers would also be a great fit as he has been a true lefty masher over his career. If the Twins want to prioritize a bat in this role, Myers is that bat.
  21. Minny505
    You are really underselling the impact of Reds Stadium in this piece. It is not just hitter friendly, it is the unanimous most homer-friendly stadium in MLB. Every "Park Factors" algorithm out there has different results for 2-10 on the most homer-friendly stadiums in MLB, but #1 is always the Reds's stadium. Just like Target Field helped Sonny Gray put up the best "Per IP" season he's had since donning green and gold, it will do the same for Mahle, but likely even more so due to Mahle's higher fly ball rate. Not an ace, but yet another solid #2. This is why the Twins would benefit most from acquiring a true #1 vs acquiring an elite player for any other role on the team, including SS. They simply have no pitcher in the org with elite potential.
  22. Minny505
    Contreras is an easy cut if the Twins need to make space. Trading at least one, if not two, of Kepler, Larnach, Wallner, and Gordon, plus acquiring a RHB in their depth chart spot, seems wise, if not imperative. I prefer to shop Larnach and Kepler, then trade the one who brings in the most value.
  23. Minny505
    I completely agree. Using round numbers, if the choice is... Option 1: Correa @ 9/300 Option 2: Bogaerts @ 7/200 I want Bogaerts. He is Correa's superior on offense, though the gap is not large. On defense, he is about average. Correa has more years left to play SS and is superior on defense by about the same amount the Bogaerts is on offense. Between offense and defense, they bring essentially the same value over the next 2-3 seasons. And Bogaerts's superior offense likely plays better at 3B or 2B when it is time to move down the defensive spectrum, making the deal more valuable in those last 2-3 years of the contract. Plus, Bogaerts has a sizeable lead in average games played and PAs per season over their respective careers. The advantage you get from a Correa signing is likely better production in years 4-7 of their respective contracts as Bogaerts is, and will always be, two years older.
  24. Minny505
    I actually think the AAV is a little high. 29-30 should get it done. If the Twins offer this tomorrow, Correa likely signs this tomorrow, just like Boras did with Seager and the Rangers. And just like the Rangers, it is because this offer will likely outbid the market by $30mil or so*. *Based on the general expectations of the ten or so analysts that I have read and/or listened to
  25. Minny505
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