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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Boushley for Funderburk
  2. jorgenswest
    I would assume Festa is number 6. Who are 7 and 8 if you rule out Varland and Sands? They will be needed.
  3. jorgenswest
    Do you suppose an .056 BABiP gave the impression that he was pitching well? His K/9 is lowest among those on the roster and his BB/9 is highest on the roster.
  4. jorgenswest
    Statcast gave it an expected batting average of .530.
  5. jorgenswest
    After his first outing his velocity was down and I expected he would need the full rehab. Did you watch tonight? How was his velocity?
  6. jorgenswest
    Festa pitched really well tonight. He is probably next in line for the rotation and a 40 man spot if the need arises soon.
  7. jorgenswest
    Going into the bottom of the ninth the Twins had a fixed win probability. BR had their win probability at 79%. At the end of the game the Twins had a win probability of 100%. Doesn’t that additional 21% have to belong to Thielbar no matter the path he took to get there? His path happened to be +9, -10, +11, -10, +21. Had there been three consecutive outs it might have been something like +9, +7, +5. Either way doesn’t it need to add to 21 in the end? BR credits Thielbar with a WPA of .209 in yesterday’s box score. If he had blown the lead it would have been -.791. AJ Minter blew the save and lost the game in the ninth for the Braves yesterday and his WPA was -.805 as they had a slightly greater win probability entering the ninth. All this for a pretty useless measure that at best tells a story of the game but is not helpful at all for player evaluation or prediction of future performance.
  8. jorgenswest
    You can see the wild ride in the part of the chart that shows the bottom of the 9th. The three outs are the down slopes and contribute positively to Thielbar’s WPA. The two baserunner’s slope up and contribute negatively to his WPA. In the end they balance out and his final WPA is the same as it would have been if he had struck out the side. The Twins probability of winning went from 83.6% to start the bottom of the 9th to 100% at the end. The difference is Thielbar’s win probability added. WPA helps to tell the story of the game but really isn’t useful for predicting future performance or even in evaluating in game performance.
  9. jorgenswest
    Would his WPA be the same if he had struck out the side? Is it the difference between the time he entered and the time he left?
  10. jorgenswest
    I am not interested guessing or betting on what they will do. I am just saying what I would do. Tonight Julien or Larnach would be batting in the bottom third of the line up. Tomorrow night Miranda would be in the starting line up. For some reason Larnach has a better OPS over his career in games started by a lefty. It could be pinch hitting which he has done well but most of those plate appearance have come when he has started against a left handed starter.
  11. jorgenswest
    Castro for his career and particularly this year is better against left handed pitching. So is Miranda. I hope they start Miranda at least half the time they see a right handed pitcher. That could be in place of Castro or Santana. They really need to find another at least league average bat against right handed pitching. I think those days are gone for Santana but maybe it is in the future of the 25 year old Miranda. They also need to get Julien and Larnach some start against lefties.
  12. jorgenswest
    I don’t disagree. I just don’t see depth in starting pitching I would guess at least 8 pitchers will get at least 5 starts with the 6th and 7th closer to 10. There will probably be another two guys that get a few starts. So far they have used 6 starters. Even if Festa finds command and is number 7 who is the best candidate for 8. If a need occurred in the next few weeks I wonder if Sands is their best option for success.
  13. jorgenswest
    Is sending Miranda what you would do?
  14. jorgenswest
    Is the intention of the post to guess what moves the Twins will make or state an opinion on what the moves they should make? I have no interest in guessing what they will do. I will find out soon enough but I do have thoughts on what I would do. On the pitching side Bowman is DFA’d first. He hasn’t pitched well. Everything is an illusion thanks to a .056 BABIP. His ERA estimators are all in the 5s. I would give Topa the full rehab time and see how Woods Richardson is doing. They may want to get Sands stretched out as a starter if he isn’t doing well. On the hitting side I would like to take away one of the short side platoon bats that tempt Rocco to make so many in game changes. Let Julien or Larnach play against left handed pitching and remove the temptation of Farmer or Margot. I also think they need to give Miranda more playing time at the major league level. He has a 135 wRC+ and is on the bench against right handed pitching with Farmer starting.
  15. jorgenswest
    True. Their left handed batters against left handed pitchers have an OPS of .775. The right handed batters against lefties have an OPS of .708. The right handed batters are pulled down by Farmer and Santana who comprise 23% of those right handed plate appearances with an OPS of .319. Their best hitter against lefties this year is Julien.
  16. jorgenswest
    Jeffers is on pace for 540 plate appearances this year. Last year only 6 players had more PAs with catcher as their primary position.
  17. jorgenswest
    Edouard Julien’s hard work with the glove is evident with the eye and is showing up in the numbers. I think he is at least nearing an average 2B with the glove. Julien is second on the team with +2 OAA behind Buxton’s +3. Julien’s DRS is -1 but his UZR is positive as well as his FRV. Is his defense to the point where they don’t need to replace him at the end of games? The next step is starting against lefties. Farmer started at 2B yesterday and saw the left handed starter twice among his 4 at bats. Would it have been so bad to have Julien batting in that spot and see that lefty twice before the right handed pitcher was brought in?
  18. jorgenswest
    They need both Wallner and Larnach. They need them both as soon as Wallner turns it around. I argued in spring that Larnach needed to be on the roster or they needed to find someone else who could DH against right handed pitching. There was a lot of push back about the need for a right handed platoon outfielder and they ended up filling that spot with Margot. I still believe that additional bat against right handed pitching is important even if it means that Julien or Kirilloff or Larnach needs to start against a lefty. I far prefer seeing one of them start against a lefty than seeing someone like Vazquez at DH or in the line up at catcher more than necessary. They invested their resources this winter to hit left handed pitching better. Take a look at tonight’s line up. Did they invest wisely? Would it be so awful to have that extra bat against right handed pitching and replace Farmer with Julien in this lineup? If not Farmer then Larnach or Kirilloff at DH in place of Vazquez? JeffersDH R 3 12 0 .258 .822 BuxtonCF R 1 10 0 .247 .684 MargotRF R 1 2 0 .171 .521 Miranda3B R 1 3 1 .212 .590 Santana1B S 0 3 0 .149 .419 MartinLF R 1 4 0 .244 .692 VázquezC R 1 3 0 .150 .392 Farmer, K2B R 0 2 2 .073 .322 Castro, WSS S 1 4 1 .169 .538 Edit: I wasn’t expecting the bottom 5 of this order to put up a 4 spot. I hope they keep prove wrong repeatedly here in out.
  19. jorgenswest
    Julien was in a platoon the moment they tendered Farmer. Julien didn’t even start opening day.
  20. jorgenswest
    They only have 4 bench spots so at least 5 players need to be every day players. Those 5 were likely Correa, Lewis, Buxton, Kepler and Polanco prior to the Polanco trade. That is in the best of circumstances with everyone healthy. Once Polanco was traded they lost an everyday bat. Even after signing Santana I was still advocating for an everyday bat. Others including Twins podcasters saw it different advocating for a right handed platoon outfielder instead. We got Margot and it was clear that Santana was the 5th everyday bat. At least the Twins have their beloved flexibility at DH.
  21. jorgenswest
    I think I am in the same place but two months feels longer in the midst than it did before the season. “I am more concerned about the decisions to retain acquire players at an age where decline is a real possibility and might be retained. After two months of the season if Santana, Farmer or DeSclafini have dropped off they need to release them. They are really betting on spreading the dollars on those three aging players rather than getting one better player with the dollars and filling the other two spots from within. I hope the bet pays off. ”
  22. jorgenswest
    Nothing stood out but I did this when they traded for DeSclafani so I may have been more pitcher focused. This administration kept Logan Morrison so there may be no line for a position player.
  23. jorgenswest
    The earliest release of a veteran free agent I can find is Jason Marquis in 2012. The front office is different but the owner paying the bills is the same. He was DFA’d after game 41 and 7 starts. At that time he had an ERA of 8.47 with 14 walks and 12 strikeouts in 34 innings. His fWAR was -0.7. His 3 million dollar salary would probably equate to something in the 4-5 range now. The earliest release by the current management might be Blake Parker. He was DFA’d after game 100. He had trouble with walks and home runs in his high leverage role with an fWAR f -0.2. His salary was 1.8 million. I think it is critical that the Twins do draw a line for vets with expiring contract. Truly awful performance shouldn’t get beyond the Marquis Line or the quarter pole of the season. Hovering around replacement level performance shouldn’t get beyond the all star break. Did it work out? Hometown product Cole De Vries was brought up to replace Marquis. He was 5-5 with a 4.11 ERA in 16 starts. Marquis was picked up by San Diego and was 6-7 with a 4.04 ERA in 16 starts. Taylor Rogers had already taken over the closer role from Parker so it is harder to find a parallel. Zach Littell may be the closest by date and use in the bullpen but Devin Smeltzer was recalled with the move. They also added Randy Dobnak about 10 days later. The three had ERAs of 2.68, 3.86 and 1.59 respectively. Parker struggled even more with the home run ball in Philadelphia.
  24. jorgenswest
    Maybe. They could then stretch out Sands as a starter in AAA.
  25. jorgenswest
    I should have used the phrase “desperation mode” which was sadly predictable. The key for me is adding starting pitching depth and wondering whether Sands can help. The schedule with the White Sox ahead and the return soon of Duran and Topa should help with the stress on the pen. If the White Sox stress the bullpen against the rest of the Twins rotation they have bigger problems than Sands can fix. You would hope sandwiched between Lopez and Ryan starts the bullpen could handle the immediate stress. As for Alcala he is not the key piece here. He did give up a 2 run home run in his inning today. No runs were scored in his previous two innings but they can go to Staumont or someone else. That pitcher will likely go back down when Topa or Duran is ready.
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