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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    The skills needed for first baseman isn’t a subset of the skills needed for second base. You need good hands and feet to handle the bad throws or even the throws that get there on a bounce. Second basemen need them for the pivot on a double play but it doesn’t come up as often.
  2. jorgenswest
    Do you think he has the hands to be an adequate first baseman? I wonder about his hands and his footwork.
  3. jorgenswest
    It might be worth the year to rebuild his arm strength after his multiple surgeries. The Rangers had Cole Ragans pitching on a very strict schedule when he returned in 2021. They used him every 7th day split evenly between two levels. Rarely did it go to the 6th day or 8th day. He started 2022 the same way in the first half and reached the majors in the second half. I don’t think it is a matter of limiting innings as much as it is regaining a healthy arm. That is likely best done with a very structured schedule that can’t happen as part of a major league bullpen.
  4. jorgenswest
    I recently read some thoughts about line up construction in the San Diego Union Tribune from Padres’ manager Mike Schildt. He was asked about his line up that alternates 1 through 8. I have wondered before if it helps pitchers stay in rhythm when they face batters from only one side. I haven’t seen data on this but I would like to see how a lefty does against a right handed batter after he has just faced a lefty. Are his numbers against right handed batting consistent with similar batters in an all right handed line up? I suspect that for many pitchers a manager makes the game too easy by sending up a one sided lineup.
  5. jorgenswest
    Wallner and Larnach both stayed in to face a lefty reliever. In Larnach’s case he faced the lefty and then was replaced for defense in the next half inning by Bader. Next I would like to see one or both start against left handed pitching.
  6. jorgenswest
    Don’t many teams use that last spot as their long reliever? Sometimes they have a player in that role on options. Sometimes it is a player they are willing to DFA after a long outing. Is Ynoa a pitcher that they should be willing to DFA when they need help in the pen?
  7. jorgenswest
    In 2013 I started a similar thread about Alex Burnett. Alex arrived in the majors in 2010 at 22 years old. He was in DFA limbo at least three times during the 2013 season pitching in 4 organizations. It was a lost season for him as he pitch only 17.2 innings across 6 teams. He was 25 years old. Young pitchers need to pitch. They need consistent quality instruction. That can’t happen when you are constantly in DFA limbo. He never pitched in the majors again. My suggestions at the time. If a players gets DFA’d they retain a major league salary throughout the year. A player can be DFA’d at most once during the season. The second time they can elect to become a free agent with that major league salary guaranteed. I know Dobnak has his salary guaranteed but a second DFA by the Twins ought to give him the opportunity to join another with the Twins paying the salary.
  8. jorgenswest
    I just looked at the AL Central and I wouldn’t trade our next two in Lee and Castro for any of the other next two. The Royals would probably move over Garcia and after that it is career minor leaguer Cam Devaney and another player that was rule 5 eligible. The Guardians would probably move over Arias and then it might be Schneeman. In AAA they have players that could have been taken in rule 5. The Tigers have Trey Sweeney and Javier Baez as a very expensive bench piece. They don’t have anything in AAA. The Guardians and Royals would also create a new hole by moving over a starter. It will be scary to replace Correa. It is probably more scary to replace Witt. The Guardians can’t replace Rocchio’s glove. Teams don’t have two good shortstops. Some don’t have one.
  9. jorgenswest
    Winokur has a chance to reach the majors. Like most prospects it is unlikely. It is always sobering to look at other players drafted in the same slot to realize that very few of these players ever reach the majors. It can feel like a 3rd round draft choice has a good chance. Round 3 seems pretty early in the draft. If you look at all of the players drafted and signed from pick 82 you find one player with a long career as a regular. Kyle Seager was chosen with the 82nd pick. David Weathers is next with 10.9 career WAR over his 19 year career as a reliever. Alex Ochoa is next with 6.4 career WAR over 8 years in mostly a fourth outfielder role. There are 18 more players that reached the majors with career WAR ranging from -1.8 to 3.8. Many had good starts to their careers in the low minors. It is hard to get to the majors without offering some hope in A ball. Too often I offer the sobering and easy take that it is unlikely he will reach the majors. I should more often make a bold take and imagine what he might be if he realizes that talent. Maybe he can have a career like Trevor Plouffe with a couple of pretty good seasons at the prime of his career. Want to dream bigger? How about Michael Cuddyer?
  10. jorgenswest
    It is an easy take to pick any player with those strikeout rates in low A and cast doubt on whether they will get to the majors. You didn’t take the easy take. You comped him to a guy that was absolute failure in High A. In 2023-24 Cavaco had an OPS of .545 as a 1B. I can make the easy take a cast doubt on whether he will be a regular in the major leagues. I can’t join you in foreseeing an absolute failure to the point that by the middle of next season he will be released having never moved beyond High A.
  11. jorgenswest
    Absolutely not. He has two options left. As long as he is on the 40 he has a future with the Twins. I agree with the Twins decision to play him everyday in AAA. Julien needs to be in AAA also. There was a similar article about Larnach in November 2023. He had options. His time hadn’t run out. He starts this year batting clean up.
  12. jorgenswest
    Why does it matter? Both will get chances. The first opportunity will not be based on an overtaking or ranking. It will depend on which pitcher’s schedule fits the Twins need in that moment. A few years ago the Twins had Ober and Varland in AAA with a need for a starter. Varland was chosen over Ober. The decision wasn’t based on an overtaking or ranking. Varland’s pitching schedule matched up with the opening better.
  13. jorgenswest
    It would be better to have someone with options and upside that they can shuttle to AAA though I do think Dobnak’s ability to throw strikes and give them length isn’t that different from the last pitcher in many bullpens. I am more concerned about Justin Topa and his role in the bullpen.
  14. jorgenswest
    MLB TV down for me. I am getting errors on Baltimore game also.
  15. jorgenswest
    This is about the best defense they can put out there. I suppose Vazquez is a better catcher. Keirsey may have more range but Wallner has the arm in right field. I would have had Keirsey over Bader in left field and Julien over Castro to start the game. I am not an advocate of the inexpensive veteran right handed bat free agent that they love to sign every winter. Let’s hope they find the 21-22 France and the 20-21 Bader.
  16. jorgenswest
    I would have started Keirsey over Bader and Julien over Castro though I acknowledge that Bader and Castro are much better with the glove.
  17. jorgenswest
    @Cody Pirkl I appreciate your article and this discussion. I particularly appreciate that you took the time to engage in the debate. I find your argument that he has earned an opportunity to start convincing. I hadn’t seen his pitching summary from March 20. I also agree that he will need to earn it. The discussion left me wondering what his 17 starts looked like last year individually. Did he earn that opportunity last year? How many starts was he a burden? How many starts did he look like a top starter? In 2024 the Twins were 11-6 in his 17 starts. He gave up 50 runs (earned and unearned) in those starts. More than half of those runs came in his 4 worst starts where he gave up 5 or more runs in each. Even in those starts in two of them he pitched at least 5 innings so it wasn’t a drag on the bullpen. They were 1-3 in those 5 starts. He also had four starts with a game score of 67 or better. They were 3-1 in those starts. The loss was after he had pitched 8 innings while giving up 2 runs to the Guardians only to have Duran give up a three run walk off home run to Brennan in the bottom of the 9th. There were two starts where he was removed before the 5th inning. One was his first start where they pulled him after 4 innings and 2 runs. The other was one of the bad starts. I don’t think he was a significant burden on the bullpen.
  18. jorgenswest
    It strikes me that 71 pitchers should mostly be #1 and #2 starters. There must be 60 of them. I am not sure that group gives a picture of what should be expected from a number 5 starter. Would the picture be different if instead you selected the top 150 pitchers selected by games started and then sorted by ERA? If you want to just look at a number 5 on competitive teams I suppose you could take the teams with the top 15 records and then select 75 pitchers based on starts from that group and sort by ERA. It is possible that a number X starter isn’t well defined but let’s no do a tedious back and forth and then eventually realize that we have different definition of a number 1 or number 2 starter. For me if you are in the top 30 starters you are a number 1 starter. I don’t start filling the number 5 spots until I have some way of clearing out the first 120. You are welcome to let me know the flaws in that thinking but let’s not go back and forth.
  19. jorgenswest
    Dobnak gives them two things that are important for a long reliever. He throws strikes and hence can give them multiple innings. He can be swapped out for another pitcher with little risk of losing him. It would be better if he had upside to climb the bullpen ladder as Jax and Sands did from that role. Castellano didn’t offer either of those elements. He didn’t show he could throw strikes and he couldn’t be shuttled to AAA. I am hoping Dobnak defies the odds and is so effective he forces the Twins to look elsewhere when they need to make their next bullpen move.
  20. jorgenswest
    In 2004 three Rice pitchers were drafted among the top 8 players. All three needed surgery by 2006. Humber and Townsend had Tommy John. Niemann had shoulder surgery. The New York Times wrote a story about the three in 2006 and they backed Rice and their coach. Even so it does seem reasonable that their workload led to their injuries. Those surgeries were in 2006. It gained attention because they were 3 of the top 8 picks in the 2004 draft. Duffey pitched for Rice 7 years after the 2004 trio. He threw 52 and 61 innings in his two years prior to being drafted. Canterino threw 96 and 94 innings in his two years at Rice. He did not lead his conference in innings pitched either year and threw what was typical for a college’s top starter in that conference. Canterino pitched for Rice thirteen years after Humber, Townsend and Niemann. I don’t know if the workloads on the three contributed to their injuries. They claimed it didn’t at the time of their injuries. I don’t think a claim of higher injury risk as a result of pitching for Rice 7 or 13 years after the fact has any support. If you are going to make that claim it should come with support. I did look for pitchers prior to the 2004 group. 1997 number 1 pick Matt Anderson went to Rice. He did suffer a major injury to his throwing arm in 2002. He suffered a rare teres major muscle tear (arm pit). His injury occurred on a day where he participated in a Tiger sponsored fan octopus throw where he tried to win Detroit Red Wing playoff tickets. I don’t think there is any reason to recommend avoiding Rice University 21 years after the injured trio. I would recommend that pitchers avoid throwing an octopus as part of their pregame warm up.
  21. jorgenswest
    I object to extremity of your last question but I do think it is a matter of priorities and they could have their priorities in the right place. I am not sure anyone is developing Julien or Steer or Martin or Encarnacion-Strand into anything more than a passable defender. How often do college second and third basemen have the tools to be an average or plus defender in the majors? I also think they showed how much they prioritize defense when they traded Miller to the Dodgers. I would assume those priorities also bleed into where they spend their time working with the players also.
  22. jorgenswest
    I would start him once or twice a series against right handed pitching. Play him in LF and DH Larnach or give Buxton a day of rest. With Larnach at DH put Castro is on the bench or at 3B with France or Miranda getting a day off against a right handed pitcher. All it takes is Castro, France and Miranda getting a day off once a week against right handed pitching and he has three starts. I am not trying to guess what the Twins will do. We will find out soon enough.
  23. jorgenswest
    I don’t think it is a matter is developing. I think it is a matter of priorities. They give a lot more weight to the hit tool. When you draft a college second baseman or corner player the chance of that player being an average defender somewhere in the major leagues is pretty small. The best they might hope is that college 2B/3B like Julien can progress to passable.
  24. jorgenswest
    It was also his ball with his momentum going towards first. Gasper shouldn’t have been there.
  25. jorgenswest
    Do you think his defense is ready? Should they wait? It isn’t just about recovering from injury. He hasn’t played a lot of second base and almost all second basemen started as shortstops in the minors.
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