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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    I think they need to take the Mariners path. They need to be better than everyone else at identifying a Chris Flexen. They need to invest innings in young pitchers like Gilbert, Sheffield and Dunn. They need to identify the prospects in trade that will make an impact as they did with Gonzalez. If they go the free agent route it has to be for multiple years of control as it was with Kikuchi. The Mariners have seen success and have one of the younger pitching staffs in baseball. Maybe the best moves this winter will be one where no ones would have predicted success.
  2. jorgenswest
    The Twins have proved false the often stated “There is no such thing as a bad one year contract”. The practice of signing stop gap pitchers to the rotation or late inning relief needs to stop. That gap only becomes wider the next year and the decline phase pitchers often found in one year deals are not guaranteed gap fillers. This doesn’t mean do nothing. They need to sign a free agent pitcher to a long term contract for the top of their rotation. They can make trades as they did for Odorizzi and Maeda. Instead of signing the Happ’s and Shoemaker’s they need to be better than every other team at identifying pitchers that have failed elsewhere and find that upside. They also need to invest innings into their own young pitching. If they can’t develop their own under control pitching they can not sustain success.
  3. jorgenswest
    No. They do not have the pitching. It would be a mistake to try to sign several guys a bargain prices and hope to squeeze out one more year. Instead they need to sign one pitcher spending in the mid 20s per year. That would have been the cost of Berrios in free agency. They need to find the rest either in-house, in trade or be better than everyone else at finding a Chris Flexen. Someone that comes out of nowhere and is young enough with control to be counted on for a few seasons. I expected Falvey to be the guy that can find those pitchers. No more one year stop gap pitchers. They don’t plug the gap and it only gets bigger the next year.
  4. jorgenswest
    If Garver returns from IL before the season ends they may just use him at DH and 1B.
  5. jorgenswest
    I think he will be up but it might be better to keep Rortvedt down so both are the primary catchers and get the at bats.
  6. jorgenswest
    His xFIPs have been very stable. 2019: 4.61 2020: 4.26 2021: 4.50 I don’t think he has changed. They should have done better last winter. They need to do better this winter.
  7. jorgenswest
    I do believe it will be helpful to the development of players like Ryan and Miranda to play for a month. I don’t believe we will learn anything in a month that would be helpful in making decisions about next year. Ryan may pitch well or not. Miranda may hit well or not. It won’t tell us anything about their readiness. They would be my two locks though. They have dominated AAA and are ready to struggle in the majors. Relievers are hard. The sample is always so small for a reliever and any stats are pretty useless in making a decision. They should have in the pen the pitchers that are the best bets for a roster spot next year. They didn’t need to wait until September to make that happen though.
  8. jorgenswest
    Looks like he last pitched July 15. It is probably wise to use bullpens to build him back up. I doubt it is about how he is throwing.
  9. jorgenswest
    The option will not be used for Ryan unless he is sent back down for 20 days. As long as he isn’t here for a temporary start an option will not be used. Ryan can develop as well in the minors as he can in the majors and there is no way to predict when those lumps will come. A few poor starts heading into the off-season or a few good starts won’t tell us anything about next year. He should be called up though because it will be more interesting. The Twins are in the entertainment business and a few starts from Ryan will draw interest. I would look forward to those starts. The best reason to keep him down would be specific work they see needed to be more successful in the major leagues. Does he need to work on a pitch that will be more effective against left handed hitters? Does he need to reduce his very high fastball usage to work on his other pitches? How is he pitching with runners on base? He hasn’t had many runners on base in the minors. Are his pitches as effective from the stretch or does he need to improve from the stretch? Any of those areas are probably easier to work on in the minors.
  10. jorgenswest
    Duffey will be 31 in December. This might simply be decline. The decline can be sudden for relievers. They often have one really effective pitch and when they lose a little on that pitch they don’t have anything else to fall back on.
  11. jorgenswest
    Reading about guys shining like Leobaldo Cabrera is a big reason I enjoy these reports. He may not be a prospect but fighting back into affiliated ball through the Empire League after getting released by the Yankees in 2018 makes for a good story. Thanks to the crew that provides these reports. I really appreciate them.
  12. jorgenswest
    I am uncertain about Dobnak’s status if DFA’d. Would it be more likely that he passes through because of the contract? Wouldn’t a team claiming him have to pick up the contract? I am not so sure his contract is a reason he stays on the 40.
  13. jorgenswest
    A few September starts isn’t going to change his development. The Twins aren’t going to learn anything they wouldn’t learn working in the minors. I still think they should bring him up. They should bring him up because it will simply be more interesting and fun to watch the game. I would look forward to his few starts. The Twins are in the entertainment business. Ryan has earned the call up. Bring him up in September. Limit his pitches. Entertain us.
  14. jorgenswest
    It isn’t just the Twins. Many teams extend the pitching on their 40 man roster with waiver wire claims. It helps to have players that you bring in to throw innings and protect the arms of the other pitchers while keeping some flexibility on the 40 man roster. If a need arises to create a spot on the 40 they can DFA Garza and fill that spot with perhaps another arm that can give them some innings. If they put Cano or Hamilton or Moran on the 40 they need to remain on the 40 man roster. I don’t think it is a fascination but rather 40 man management and innings load management in a year where they are careful with the innings of several of their pitchers.
  15. jorgenswest
    Would the 70th percentile projection be someone like Josh Willingham? His first full season was at age 27. He was not a good fielder or runner. He had a good 7 year stretch as a hitter with an OPS+ of 125.
  16. jorgenswest
    I hope the Twins take a seriously internal look at themselves and find the truth in what he has said.
  17. jorgenswest
    Would offers of players likely to be DFA’d had been worthwhile? I am sure they had some bar in mind for his remaining value to the team and that bar must have exceeded any marginal 40 man roster adds. After the deadline I don’t want them to say that no one offered anything they value for him. How would that help? Instead they said that they appreciated his value as a teammate. I prefer that response.
  18. jorgenswest
    Any injury to a hand is not trivial for a pitcher. Ervin Santana never recovered from surgery to the middle finger of his throwing hand. Rogers has injured the same finger though I think the injury is different. Anyone know of other pitchers with the same injury and how they recovered? What is the recovery time if surgery is needed?
  19. jorgenswest
    While the market seemed hot for pitching it was almost exclusively better starting pitching than Pineda. I think it can be argued that Pineda is a better option than Lester and the Twins could have had a return of Lane Thomas. Thomas does have 4th OF potential but would the Twins have space for another OF on their 40 man roster this winter? Maybe. He could be a better to retain than Cave but is Cave someone that will be kept on the 40 this winter? Similar players will be available inexpensively this winter. Pineda might be a comp to Heaney. His ERA is better but Heaney has the better xFIP. Even if they could have substituted in Pineda for Heaney they are adding 25 year old AA starter Jason Junk who they would need to add to the 40 or expose in rule 5. I think the Yankees would prefer Heaney with his better health track record but maybe the Twins could have added another pitcher here. It seems at best the value of a starting pitcher like Pineda was a marginal prospect already on the 40 or needing to be added to the 40. These are the kinds of players they will find this winter DFA’d by other teams or exposed in the rule 5. I am scratching my head why a pitcher like Pineda or Heaney didn’t have a better market this year. Perhaps the supply of better starters brought down their value to players on the fringe of the 40 in return. Maybe retaining Pineda for two months has at least as much value.
  20. jorgenswest
    I wonder where the Twins missed the opportunity. Was there a starter that moved that was clearly inferior to Pineda? A case could be made that the Twins could have acquired that same return that was in the deal for that inferior starter. Did they miss an opportunity here? Jon Lester for Lane Thomas - I really don’t see how Lane Thomas would be retained in the 40 man roster. I don’t think this is a missed opportunity. I don’t see another opportunity. Duffy and Gibson moved but they are better starting pitchers. The only case I can make is the Twins could have acquired Lane Thomas. The thought that Pineda may have more value to the Twins in these two months as a mentor seems reasonable. Edit- Andrew Heaney might be the best comp. Would the Yankees have preferred Pineda? Maybe. Heaney has the better xFIP this year and better health.
  21. jorgenswest
    Berrios’ trade value will never be higher. The return will never be better. Is that return enough to give up his 2022 season?
  22. jorgenswest
    I don’t know about Gore but the concept of buying low as the Rays did with Glasnow and Meadows should be considered.
  23. jorgenswest
    It will not be a failure to set the bar high and end up keeping Buxton and Berrios at the deadline. A failure would be to trade them for a larger quantity of lesser prospects. The Rangers may well come out ahead with the volume of Yankee prospects but I think the likelihood of getting an elite player is significantly reduced. They do need to move Pineda and hopefully Simmons for the best they can get. There are a few possible sell high opportunities in Donaldson and Thielbar. Their value will decline. The same may be true about Duffey. They do need to move on from Happ, Robles and probably Colome. Keeping Belisle instead of looking at Anderson was a huge mistake. They can’t make that same mistake with Hamilton by keeping Robles around.
  24. jorgenswest
    Gallo to Yankees and the Rangers go for volume in prospects rather than the Yankees top prospects. In the Twins case and I suppose most teams it is far better to go for quality over quantity. If they all are OK prospects they eventually end up in a 40 man/rule 5 crunch. You either end up losing a few or in the worst case you don’t end up in a crunch because only a few make progress. If the Twins trade any of their under control assets they really need to hold out for the top prospects.
  25. jorgenswest
    There is a lot of value in keeping Berrios, Buxton and Rogers. It will not be a deadline failure if all three are kept. Pineda has value. They need to take the best offer they can get for him. I think this might be the sell high point for Donaldson in his Twin tenure. If they can find a match I hope they move him and use those dollars on pitching or improving offers to Buxton. Thielbar might also be a sell high at this point. Can Simmons get anything in return if they pay the salary? I would pay the salary if I can get something in return. They have an option on Colome. Is there any level of performance over the final two months that should motivate the Twins to exercise that option? I say no. If the answer is yes they need to see him in high leverage situations to make that assessment. If the answer is no. They need to release him. I would release Happ and Robles. They made a mistake in 2018 keeping Belisle instead of taking a look at Nick Anderson. Let’s not make that same mistake with Ian Hamilton by keeping a pitcher like Robles.
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