KirbyDome89

He had a .717 OPS in September.

The trade didn't seem to bother him at the time it occured; Idk why it would cause him to spiral in 2022. I feel the same way about the pandemic stuff. He had a rough start to 2022 and he didn't finish well last year either. I don't think injuries explain away his lack of production.

"The price you're paying for the production far outweighs the value of those homers." If only you had kept reading....

Martin scuffled at AAA in 2022 and posted good numbers for only 1/3 of his short season last year. He hasn't shown the ability to consistently hit AAA pitching in 2 years. Duvall and Gordon aren't sexy options, but it makes sense.

The "half season," wasn't due to injury. It was performance related. I don't know why this is difficult; the pros don't outweigh the cons. You can play him for 140+ games and maybe get 35-40 HRs, but the price you're paying for the production far outweighs the value of those homers. Kepler's hot streak to Luis Arraez's runs scored. Lol, pure entertainment at this point. Keep going!

Sure you did, the "benefit of hindsight," is irrelevant when Gallo is putting up the numbers I posted earlier. The idea that the team needed to watch him be awful for 5 months instead of 3, because you can't know for certain in the moment, is nonsense. The FO needed to roster him for the off chance he'd put up a career 2-3 month stretch a la Kepler? What an argument.... Miguel Sano could probably do that with a 50% K rate too. Go look at how the variables are weighted for determining OPS+. Tell me HRs aren't heavy. That doesn't mean the stat is "wacked," and if you want to argue that Gallo is an extreme/outlier that stretches the formula I'd tend to agree, but if you want to say he was remotely close to an average offensive performer last year than you either weren't watching, or you're being willfully obtuse.

That's what I'm asking you. You implied that Gallo basically duped this FO into holding onto him with a few good weeks in April. Do you think they were unaware of his production woes by the end of June, or July? You said it yourself, he wasn't playing regularly by the middle of the season. Do you think that maybe had something to do with the FO and coaching staff realizing how terrible he was? Yet he still hung onto that roster spot.... Wallner had an OPS in the mid .900s by the end of May. It was closer to 1.000 by the end of June. They didn't have to look long or hard....

.160/.272/.366 with a 46% (yes that's correct) K rate in May through July. "Hindsight is 20/20," is being massively exaggerated here. Do you honestly think a remotely competent FO wasn't aware how terrible he was by the middle of the season? I fail to see how "they don't play him every day," or hitting 21 HRs is somehow a defense for posting that god awful slash line.

He had a couple nice weeks in April, and from that point forward he was atrocious. He was miserable in May, just as bad in June, ect. He was average defensively, and the fact that he finished with a 101 OPS+ says more about that stat than Gallo's performance. If anybody watched Joey Gallo last year and though he was an average offensive player.....woof. It wasn't difficult to "back off," him, the FO simply refused to acknowledge he was a sunk cost. That's a legitimate fear with Santana.

By weeks you mean months right?

"Santana, who turns 38 in April, showed serious decline in some key hitting metrics last year, going from a .372 xwOBA in 2022 (88th percentile) to .305 in 2023 (23rd percentile). His exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate all fell off the table." I remember watching him with KC and thinking he was toast. No chance he gets the Gallo/Andrelton Simmons treatment right? Yeesh.....

I think Varland is unproven. I'm not even that high on him, but if you're going to bump him from the rotation, do it for a pitcher that's clearly better and preferably someone who affects the rotational hierarchy other than just the 5 spot (I'd happily settle for just "better," though.) DeSclafani is a replacement level starter that's filling out the rotation. I very much want to avoid those guys, which is why I too hope they flip him, pay somebody else to roster him, whatever. Varland in STP is good if my above criteria is met. I don't doubt we'll see Louie at some point; I disagree with the path we'll take to get there though. Stashing the better option and investing MLB innings into a retread under the guise of "depth," is self defeating. I'm just not in on hoping a 34 year old who was shut down with elbow issues last year rediscovers his form from 3 years ago. I don't want him in STP for the reasons listed above. Sure, if we had a solid rotation I'd absolutely agree.

So we're going to pretend you didn't imply that a lack of support for the move equates to a lack of understanding? Gotcha. An odd response indeed.... Lol thank you for hammering home my point.

Yes, we all get it, you're an organizational sycophant who loves to argue from authority and anybody who disagrees with said authority is a dumb***. Riverbrian did a nice job of laying out the issues with platooning earlier in the thread. Go back and read it.

"A strong platoon with Farmer vs. LHP and Julien vs. LHP is all but guaranteed to outproduce Polanco." What words am I putting in your mouth? Worst case scenario? C'mon....You don't have to take what I'm saying seriously, but if your response is to stick your fingers in your ears, I'd refrain from dumping on anybody else's argument. League wide perspective is exactly why I prefer Varland over DeSclafani. Give me the younger guy, with some actual upside, instead of the semi washed vet whose ceiling is fringe backend guy. This isn't tough to understand. If you're going to trot out a .500 ERA every 5th day, have it be somebody that maybe takes some steps forward and contributes beyond this year. DeSclafani is either moved, in the opening day rotation, or in the pen. I think options 1 and 2 are far more likely. If you want to argue that he won't bump Varland go ahead, we'll just disagree. Two teams are paying DeSclafani to not be on their roster. Idk if other clubs were lining up to throw $10M at him. You realize he was hitting 2 hole for them in the postseason right? But "bad faith," huh?....

It's guaranteed? Polanco was better vs. LHP in 2021, and the two have basically rotated who was better vs. LHP each year since Farmer starting playing regularly. I definitly don't think it's a given that 34 year old Kyle Farmer outproduces Polanco vs. LHP, in which case the platoon becomes more of an issue. Do I think it's unreasonable to favor the Farmer/Julien platoon? No. Do I believe that last season was Julien's floor and Kyle Farmer posts a .800+ OPS vs. LHP? Also, no. 23 player is less than one per club. You're making my point for me here. No, the Twins (and most teams) didn't have a large number of guys reach 500 PAs because 1) injuries occur 2) baseball is matchup dependent, and most players aren't matchup-proof. Why are they worse? Is that really a question? They moved a top of the lineup bat for a prospect and/or a RP. For me it's that simple. I don't want a .500 ERA #6 spot. I don't see that as "depth," or some sort of W. If the Twins are trotting out a 34 year old on a 1 year deal with a .500 ERA every 5th start I'll be incredibly annoyed, and honestly everybody else should be too. Louie Varland can probably give you a .500 ERA, or at least something close. That's not impressive, but at minimum Varland has some upside, at least until he shows he doesn't. The entire point is that if you're going to bump him from the rotation (and maybe that isn't the plan) then it should be a move that reshuffles most, if not nearly all, of the rotation.

Sure, Farmer has better career numbers vs. LHP, but if we're to believe Polanco is sliding downhill at 31, why should Farmer posting his worst season vs. LHP in the last 5 years (not counting the shortened 2020) be overlooked? It wouldn't shock me if Farmer was better vs. LHP this year, but I don't believe that gap is enough to make up for the shortcomings of a platoon. Randomness in a league where 2,400+ games take place in one season?

This is what I used: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-southpaw-advantage/ And yes, I generously rounded up to make the 1/3 math easier, but I would certainly say that my overall point holds true; Julien actually does need to "hit," LHP, i.e. "hold his own," if he's going to be a regular in the starting lineup.

Except Farmer wasn't better against LHP last year. It's odd to me that those who believe Polanco is about to fall off a cliff at 31 are seemingly comfortable platooning a 34 year old Farmer. The funny thing about that progression is that it correlates negatively with his innings in the field. His defensive usage was akin to a back end reliever. The Twins had one player, ONE, clear 500 PAs last season. Kepler came close at 491 PAs in 130 games, but had 4x as many PAs against LHP as Julien. So sure, if Julien stays healthy/available for 162 games, maybe he touches 500 PAs while continuing to completely avoid LHP; good luck with that though. FWIW roughy 1/3 of MLB innings are thrown by LHP. It's not even debatable that this FO shows a strong deference to vets, even when it's clear they're not the answer. If DeSclafani is viewed as a starter (who knows if this is the case but I certainly hope not) he'll be given every opportunity to fail and that will come at Varland's expense. We'll disagree on whether DeSclafani fits the Bundy/Archer mold... "The team is clearly better after the trade." Lol the hottest of takes.

Polanco tallied 2x as many ABs vs. LHP (not surprising) in 30ish fewer games. Their offensive usage wasn't all that similar. Their innings in the field were roughly the same, and despite all the moaning about Polanco's defense, it was Julien who turned in a negative WAR in that category. He (Julien) is going to have to hit LHP. If the solution is to platoon Kyle Farmer with him at 2B then I don't see the Twins adding by subtracting here. Brooks Lee isn't a factor. He's a top prospect in the organization. The door is never shut for him. Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer were the same type of "depth," or reclamation project, back end guys, just 2 years ago. Idk how adding another of that type in 2024 makes this rotation better, especially if the guy being pushed out (Varland) has some actual upside. Woof, saying the team is better right now is a true contrarian take. Idk if you've paid attention to NE football lately, but BB's roster building decisions absolutely sunk that team over the last few years. The Pats decided to move on, not BB.

750K is literally nothing. They'll throw that at some retread to get knocked around in ST and sit in the minors. There are no savings beyond this year. None.

2025 is a club option. The Twins aren't on the hook for $12M, so that "savings," doesn't exist.

Didn't the Twins also take on millions due to salary differences? They (the Twins) will still come out ahead, but the money coming back isn't all surplus.

Or Julien being able to handle LHP. So many thought the Twins could just platoon away their shortcomings last year, and ironically the platooning itself became an issue. Even half a season with Polanco at the top of the lineup would've raised the floor considerably.