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KirbyDome89

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Everything posted by KirbyDome89

  1. KirbyDome89
    Where, in any of my posts, are you reading that prospects lack all value? Point to it, or stop with these weird tangential arguments. Valuing prospects and not wanting to trade for them right now aren't mutually exclusive. Is it stupid, in a vacuum, to swap Jorge Polanco for a top 100 prospect? No. Do we operate in a vacuum? Also, no.
  2. KirbyDome89
    Where in that post did I advocate for unloading all prospects? You don't have to push this into absurdity. I don't think I'm "cherry picking," anymore than the group that's celebrating a return headlined by a top 100 prospect. YMMV
  3. KirbyDome89
    No s*** prospects can land you legit MLB talent, we just watched Berrios shove it down the Twins throat in October. I don't think an offensively challenged team, trying to build on their first taste of playoff success in 2 decades, should be swapping one of their better bats for a return headlined by a prospect. Where this team is, and what they should be trying to do is important if we're talking about assessing the value of this swap.
  4. KirbyDome89
    Just a few years ago people on this board were drooling over Austin Martin and SWR. Neither has been able to find consist success in the upper minors, let alone contribute anything at the Major League level. I understand that established talent is swapped for prospects all the time, and sometimes that's the right call, but this team is trying to win now, which is important in viewing the "value," of this swap. The Mariners just moved spare parts + a prospect for a legit bat. It's Polanco's health and continued production vs. the development of Gonzalez.
  5. KirbyDome89
    And if we need to view the "total value," with a high level of skepticism neither number is really diagnosing anything...
  6. KirbyDome89
    I was more so referring to the quantity/quality aspect of "evening," out a trade, and the way a 20 year old who hasn't seen a pitch outside of A ball is being valued vs. Polanco.
  7. KirbyDome89
    Plus he spent the last 2 months of 2023 on the IL with an elbow issue. I'm not even that high on Varland, but unless the Twins really don't envision him as a starter, shoving Varland out of the 5th spot and into the bullpen for a guy who's one bad year away from being considered washed seems silly.
  8. KirbyDome89
    Eh, these value charts should be taken with a massive grain of salt.
  9. KirbyDome89
    Yeah not sure I'm loving this.... Their best (likely to be moved) trade chip is now off the table, and they opted for quantity over quality? No cash savings (if we're to believe this team is hard capped and needed payroll relief to make additions,) and no shakeup of the rotational pecking order, i.e. Polanco wasn't packaged for an impact arm. Those were the two scenarios, barring some hyper rare one for one swap, where moving Polanco made sense to me, even if I didn't really like the idea. I don't think DeSclafani stabilizes anything. He wasn't good last year, and SF shut him down with elbow issues. Hopefully the Twins intend to shed his salary elsewhere a la the Garver, IKF, maneuvers a few years ago.
  10. KirbyDome89
    Or the Twins watched Ryan struggle for 6 weeks in June/July and then look wholly unimpressive when he returned for the remaining 5-6 weeks of the season. He threw 2 innings in his lone playoff appearance. Two! It was an elimination game, so an already short leash was likely even shorter, but it was clear there wasn't a ton of trust there and FWIW that was the right call.
  11. KirbyDome89
    Relax. The point was that a "speed only," guy has incredibly limited utility, and what he does bring to the table is tied to variables outside of his own control.
  12. KirbyDome89
    Jeffers has to reach base (which he was miserable at doing last postseason) before you can pinch run for him. Also, his spot in the lineup has to up, the game would need to be close, yada yada. I think the incredibly niche role a guy like Thompson would fill is being overrated.
  13. KirbyDome89
    Yeah I just don't think he is ready, so that mantra doesn't apply in this situation. I'm not going to pretend to be remotely locked into minor league action, but looking through his 2023 season Martin had some really weird RH/LH splits and 2/3 of his short season was disappointing if we're being honest. I don't want a mediocre vet anymore than you do, but I'm not in a hurry to force a guy who hasn't consistently hit minor league pitching either of the past two seasons onto the active roster either.
  14. KirbyDome89
    All the more reason to be cautious given Martin's uneven 2023 and pedestrian 2022 seasons no? I agree that this FO gives far too long of a leash to "bounce back," or retread types they sign, but lets be real here, Julien vs. Martin is apples and oranges.
  15. KirbyDome89
    Good faith would be responding to what is actually posted, not propping up a strawman and railing against it. Viable backups, financial resources, future considerations, yada yada all have absolutely no bearing on whether or not young players will make huge jumps in WAR production this season.
  16. KirbyDome89
    That's a massive overgeneralization. 59, 45, and 88. Those are Kirilloff's total games played in each of the last three seasons. Every player on the roster is just as likely to post a stretch like that? Stop. My logic? You keep bringing Correa and Buxton into a discussion that has nothing to do with them, and now you've stretched my skepticism that a group of young players will double their WAR output into "there's no hope for this team." C'mon, it's not that hard to argue in good faith is it?
  17. KirbyDome89
    You need to available and performing to accumulate that WAR. Lewis and Kirilloff haven't been healthy for each of the last 3 seasons. Is that just "bad luck?" Idk. Wallner was literally unplayable in the postseason. We can bemoan the SSS but his offensive issues were on full display. All is takes is one sophomore slump (looking at you Jose Miranda,) or one lengthy IL stint before you're trying to squeeze 4-5 WAR out of the remaining players to hit that mark, so yeah, I think it's an incredibly optimistic number.
  18. KirbyDome89
    50-75% bump in WAR for all of them!? That's insanely optimistic. I think there's a better chance somebody like Wallner is in AAA rather than posting 3.5ish WAR with the Twins. There are a bunch of permutations where the Twins played poorly against subpar teams too. Cherry picking 20 games scattered across 6 months tells us nothing. They won 87 games in one of the worst divisions imaginable. It's not ridiculous to think Varland and Paddack go 17-15 next year. It is ridiculous to think Sonny Gray's W/L record is more important than his actual performance/contribution. The dude finished 2nd in AL CYA voting. I mean c'mon....
  19. KirbyDome89
    No issue with the time off. His workload last season far exceeded anything he's done previously. It's that last part that gives me pause heading into this year though. That balance is casting a pretty wide net. If it's Ober vs. a random backend journeyman with his own injury history, ok? If we're talking about Ober vs. someone who has reliably thrown 130+ innings a year (a fairly low bar to clear) then Idk if I'd say it's a coin flip. I think that second comp should be what we're looking at.
  20. KirbyDome89
    Mahle was the big one. Other than him, the Twins avoided a lengthy IL stint for any starter. On the scale of bad to good luck, last season skews heavily towards the latter as far as pitching health is concerned. Maeda threw over 100 innings last season post TJ. That's pretty much what you'd expect. Paddack wasn't in the plans at all in 2023 so he shouldn't be counted towards "missed time." Ryan, Lopez, and Ober all hit career highs for IP. Sonny Gray hit his highest total in nearly a decade. That's insane volume.
  21. KirbyDome89
    Yep, completely forgot about the late MiLB start that year. No clue whether or not the injury was exaggerated. That 2021 team stopped playing meaningful innings in May, and the roster was basically a AAAA group from August onward so Idk why you'd need to cut short a young players' season to get another young arm a single start but who knows. Ok, I'll grant you 2021, but we're still talking about a season in which he was handled with kid gloves and barely topped 100 IP. Last year was certainly a big step up from that; fair or not, I'm skeptical he can reliably go 160ish innings yearly.
  22. KirbyDome89
    2021 was bookended by injuries. He missed at least the first month of the season and then he finished the year on the IL with a hip aliment. Last season is an outlier as far as health is concerned.
  23. KirbyDome89
    Because coming into last year he had broken down in every professional season sans a COVID shortened 2020. Whether it's a shoulder, elbow, hip, or whatever doesn't really matter; he's been shelved fairly consistently as a pro. Maybe all that is in the past, but relying on 160ish innings still feels pretty suspect.
  24. KirbyDome89
    I'd be shocked to see Ober stay healthy enough to replicate his 2023 innings total next season. If he hit's his 2021 IP number (100ish) and Paddack stays healthy/effective enough to throw the 120ish IP others are tossing out, that's a little more than the workload of one higher end starter. If you need to cobble those totals together it makes handing that 5th spot to Varland less appealing, though I far from sold regardless. It also puts a ton of pressure on Lopez to stay healthy and Ryan to take a step forward.
  25. KirbyDome89
    Do you understand how consumers operate? If the product you purchase from me starts to decline in quality while increasing in price, do you shrug and chalk it up to "the cost of doing business," or do you question the practices at play and potentially take your business elsewhere? The Twins aren't some mom and pop shop down the street that have to raise prices to keep the lights on. We're ignoring that inconvenient truth. The Pohlads are literal billionaires. They decided to cut payroll over an inconsequential amount of broadcast $$ (money which they'll eventually make by either streaming or selling broadcast rights) and immediately dump cold water on the first playoff victory for this franchise in two decades. Now they're passing down part of the "burden," of the Bally debacle to the the fans, i.e. the consumer, by forcing those attending games into higher priced seats. The cherry on top is the team pitching this nonsense as some kind of exercise in fan unity. It's total bull**** and the org deserves to be called on it.
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