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KirbyDome89

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Everything posted by KirbyDome89

  1. KirbyDome89
    All the more reason to be cautious given Martin's uneven 2023 and pedestrian 2022 seasons no? I agree that this FO gives far too long of a leash to "bounce back," or retread types they sign, but lets be real here, Julien vs. Martin is apples and oranges.
  2. KirbyDome89
    Good faith would be responding to what is actually posted, not propping up a strawman and railing against it. Viable backups, financial resources, future considerations, yada yada all have absolutely no bearing on whether or not young players will make huge jumps in WAR production this season.
  3. KirbyDome89
    That's a massive overgeneralization. 59, 45, and 88. Those are Kirilloff's total games played in each of the last three seasons. Every player on the roster is just as likely to post a stretch like that? Stop. My logic? You keep bringing Correa and Buxton into a discussion that has nothing to do with them, and now you've stretched my skepticism that a group of young players will double their WAR output into "there's no hope for this team." C'mon, it's not that hard to argue in good faith is it?
  4. KirbyDome89
    You need to available and performing to accumulate that WAR. Lewis and Kirilloff haven't been healthy for each of the last 3 seasons. Is that just "bad luck?" Idk. Wallner was literally unplayable in the postseason. We can bemoan the SSS but his offensive issues were on full display. All is takes is one sophomore slump (looking at you Jose Miranda,) or one lengthy IL stint before you're trying to squeeze 4-5 WAR out of the remaining players to hit that mark, so yeah, I think it's an incredibly optimistic number.
  5. KirbyDome89
    50-75% bump in WAR for all of them!? That's insanely optimistic. I think there's a better chance somebody like Wallner is in AAA rather than posting 3.5ish WAR with the Twins. There are a bunch of permutations where the Twins played poorly against subpar teams too. Cherry picking 20 games scattered across 6 months tells us nothing. They won 87 games in one of the worst divisions imaginable. It's not ridiculous to think Varland and Paddack go 17-15 next year. It is ridiculous to think Sonny Gray's W/L record is more important than his actual performance/contribution. The dude finished 2nd in AL CYA voting. I mean c'mon....
  6. KirbyDome89
    No issue with the time off. His workload last season far exceeded anything he's done previously. It's that last part that gives me pause heading into this year though. That balance is casting a pretty wide net. If it's Ober vs. a random backend journeyman with his own injury history, ok? If we're talking about Ober vs. someone who has reliably thrown 130+ innings a year (a fairly low bar to clear) then Idk if I'd say it's a coin flip. I think that second comp should be what we're looking at.
  7. KirbyDome89
    Mahle was the big one. Other than him, the Twins avoided a lengthy IL stint for any starter. On the scale of bad to good luck, last season skews heavily towards the latter as far as pitching health is concerned. Maeda threw over 100 innings last season post TJ. That's pretty much what you'd expect. Paddack wasn't in the plans at all in 2023 so he shouldn't be counted towards "missed time." Ryan, Lopez, and Ober all hit career highs for IP. Sonny Gray hit his highest total in nearly a decade. That's insane volume.
  8. KirbyDome89
    Yep, completely forgot about the late MiLB start that year. No clue whether or not the injury was exaggerated. That 2021 team stopped playing meaningful innings in May, and the roster was basically a AAAA group from August onward so Idk why you'd need to cut short a young players' season to get another young arm a single start but who knows. Ok, I'll grant you 2021, but we're still talking about a season in which he was handled with kid gloves and barely topped 100 IP. Last year was certainly a big step up from that; fair or not, I'm skeptical he can reliably go 160ish innings yearly.
  9. KirbyDome89
    2021 was bookended by injuries. He missed at least the first month of the season and then he finished the year on the IL with a hip aliment. Last season is an outlier as far as health is concerned.
  10. KirbyDome89
    Because coming into last year he had broken down in every professional season sans a COVID shortened 2020. Whether it's a shoulder, elbow, hip, or whatever doesn't really matter; he's been shelved fairly consistently as a pro. Maybe all that is in the past, but relying on 160ish innings still feels pretty suspect.
  11. KirbyDome89
    I'd be shocked to see Ober stay healthy enough to replicate his 2023 innings total next season. If he hit's his 2021 IP number (100ish) and Paddack stays healthy/effective enough to throw the 120ish IP others are tossing out, that's a little more than the workload of one higher end starter. If you need to cobble those totals together it makes handing that 5th spot to Varland less appealing, though I far from sold regardless. It also puts a ton of pressure on Lopez to stay healthy and Ryan to take a step forward.
  12. KirbyDome89
    Do you understand how consumers operate? If the product you purchase from me starts to decline in quality while increasing in price, do you shrug and chalk it up to "the cost of doing business," or do you question the practices at play and potentially take your business elsewhere? The Twins aren't some mom and pop shop down the street that have to raise prices to keep the lights on. We're ignoring that inconvenient truth. The Pohlads are literal billionaires. They decided to cut payroll over an inconsequential amount of broadcast $$ (money which they'll eventually make by either streaming or selling broadcast rights) and immediately dump cold water on the first playoff victory for this franchise in two decades. Now they're passing down part of the "burden," of the Bally debacle to the the fans, i.e. the consumer, by forcing those attending games into higher priced seats. The cherry on top is the team pitching this nonsense as some kind of exercise in fan unity. It's total bull**** and the org deserves to be called on it.
  13. KirbyDome89
    What could go wrong....
  14. KirbyDome89
    For sure his value rises if it's CF or bust. I'm not nearly as confident the Twins will take such a hardline stance. Hopefully I'm wrong.
  15. KirbyDome89
    He actually kinda was that bad last year. For a guy who has morphed into a 3 outcome hitter, and whose power is being touted, you can't post a below average OPS+ while clogging up the DH spot for the entire season. That's awful, and it undeniably hurt the Twins in ways other than just subpar production from the DH. It actually is encouraging that his sprint speed and base running grade out so well, but their impact is severely minimized when you're getting on base at a below average rate. I get why we're reaching to find some silver lining here, but a 2nd procedure on a (potentially?) chronic knee issue, on top of a lengthy injury history, on the heels of his worst season in the last 5 years doesn't leave much room for good vibes, no matter how hard we look.
  16. KirbyDome89
    I think Lewis is the most likely to "regress," at least as far as fan perception is concerned. I'm skeptical that his 2nd half numbers are sustainable, but aside from that it seemed like everything (sans injury) broke right for him last year. Maybe that's just me, but the run on grand slams, the 2 HR playoff game, his spot in the lineup seemingly finding its way into clutch/important moments, all of it felt like it came up roses. I hope you're right, and that's just us watching a budding superstar. Hopefully people realize that if Lewis does "regress," to being a very good player, that is still a massive win for this franchise. I see Julien as a coin flip. His July wasn't going to last. Idk if his August/September/October finish was the league adjusting without him having enough ABs to counter, or maybe his SSS in the postseason was him trending back up. The lack of ABs (and production) against LHP scares me regardless. If he's a platoon option who struggles to be even average at 2B I'd be disappointed. I'm also least confident in Wallner. The profile, the playoffs, maybe it's unfair but I just don't see him as a corner OF fixture.
  17. KirbyDome89
    I agree that the primary issue is the personnel, i.e. the talent, and not necessarily the approach. That said, the personnel isn't likely to change much, so the question really becomes at what point does that risk start to outweigh the reward? I'd argue that most of last year we were treated to the former and not the latter. How many times last season did we watch this team look inept (especially against LH pitching) for lengthy stretches and then explode? So sure, on average, things might look perfectly fine, but that type of inconsistency is exactly what sunk this club in the postseason. Also, we need to acknowledge how heavily OPS values HRs when using it in this context. It's funny that Gallo was mentioned as addition by subtraction. He was considered league average by OPS+ last year. If you watched even semi casually you know that's nowhere close to true. Matt Wallner isn't a stranger to K's. Julien hasn't shown (in a very limited SS) any ability to put together competitive ABs vs. LHP, and neither of the two finished last year on a particularly strong note. Lewis's run in the 2nd half is very likely unsustainable, and he has (again in small samples) put together some high K stretches. That doesn't mean this offense is doomed but I'm not sure things are markedly better. As a side note, yes I would rather see this team win than struggle to scratch across runs a la Cleveland, but the Twins played a pretty unwatchable brand of baseball themselves for a large part of last year as well.
  18. KirbyDome89
    Such a hard pass on Manoah. Injury concerns aside (and those very much exist) the guy straight up quit on Toronto last year, and by most accounts was an absolute ass about doing some rehab/reset work in the minors.
  19. KirbyDome89
    Their willingness to go through with the offer isn't what's in question here. You and I could submit offers that are 20-30% under market for the homes we want, and have every intention of spending that amount, but we also forfeit the right to moan when we aren't the winning bid no? Correa literally fell into their lap. The Twins didn't circle "their guy," and go get him. It took and all time bizarre FA saga for him to end up in MN.
  20. KirbyDome89
    MN was Correa's 3rd choice at best. If he passes a physical in SF he's a Giant, ditto for NY.
  21. KirbyDome89
    Wow, what a POS. Ethics and all else aside, I'd love to know how LA is protected, i.e. allowed, to use the exempt list this way. It feels like a classic case of abusing the system here. If there was ever a time for the MLBPA to get involved (and mine some good will) this would be it.
  22. KirbyDome89
    Looking at his career, a half season in CF is probably his ceiling. He hasn't done that in 4 years now. I mean, if we can't be skeptical at this point, can we ever?
  23. KirbyDome89
    Yeah, this feels like a typical "best shape of their life," kinda offseason article. I'm not sure what "fully recovered," even means in this context, or at this point for Buxton. The word chronic was used frequently last season was it not?
  24. KirbyDome89
    Eh, he has a slightly less than 0 WPA over those two years. 2022 was an absolute disaster, and despite last season not coming to close to that level of awful, the team still had to bury him near the bottom of the pen for a large portion of the season and essentially spoon feed him low leverage innings because he struggled with runners, inherited or allowed, and high leverage. Idk if I'd say he was a net positive during his Twins tenure.
  25. KirbyDome89
    He is a bargain, but that's relative. IMO it's unlikely another team sends a great pitching or catching prospect in return for him, that doesn't mean he "isn't worth playing."
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