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KirbyDome89

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Everything posted by KirbyDome89

  1. KirbyDome89
    Do you think a HR is worth 2x more than a 2B? OPS(+) overrates somebody like Gallo, who has a disproportionally high percentage of his hits leave the park but offers nothing in the way of a rounded offensive game. "By the numbers," he's average, but his OPS is carried by his slugging, which is carried entirely by HRs. Heavy. Like I said earlier, the juice wasn't worth the squeeze. Yes, disagreement makes me an idiot; meanwhile, you're touting Gallo's ability to reach base. Glass houses and stones yada yada...
  2. KirbyDome89
    Quantify the weight? The multiplier is there for all to see. C'mon, this is a dead end. So because the BB% didn't lead where you thought it would, OPS needs to be reintroduced? Smh, this is off the rails. We're done.
  3. KirbyDome89
    It feels a lot like shuffling the bottom of your bench, hoping you find that diamond in your fantasy league.
  4. KirbyDome89
    Could I rattle off the exact weights assigned? No. Does that mean I don't understand what they're attempting to quantify? Also no. Lucky for us, these equations, aren't kept under lock and key. A .301 OBP would've put Gallo in front of only 8% of qualified hitters. Moving him to an average OBP jumps that number to 35%. Adding another 20 points of OBP has a similar effect; he's better than 65% of qualified hitters. Yeah, I'm going to stick with 20 points being kind of a big deal. Yep, I'm fully aware of your "by the numbers," stance. I'm saying those number(s) aren't painting an accurate picture. You disagree. It's ok. Yikes, that's a tough look huh....
  5. KirbyDome89
    Literally said HRs are weighted heavily. That actually is pretty far off but don't let that minor detail get in the way. Never once implied his April was worthless. Nope, "my narrative," is that the juice wasn't worth the squeeze and continuing to roster him was a mistake that didn't require the benefit of hindsight to correct. Controversial take, I know.
  6. KirbyDome89
    Anytime friend! **How the variables are weighted. Different outcomes are assigned different values. Yeah no, OPS+, wOBA, and wRC+ are all saying the same thing, he's average. Thanks for the "education," though. Uh huh, and despite the walks he still couldn't come close to reaching base at an average clip. I've never argued that what Gallo can do well is invaluable, I said what he does well doesn't compensate for his shortcomings. I could go 6 for 8 with 5 HRs + a double in 2 games, and then revert to mid summer Gallo for the rest of the month and my cumulative stats would probably still look decent, but if I'm a net negative 80% of the time, yeah, I'd argue the aggregate fails to paint an accurate picture of my true contribution, or lack thereof. His production, or value PA by PA, isn't reflected. Just watching games even remotely regularly, you know that, but seeing that he was nowhere near an average offensive player for 5/6 of the season should cement it. What's "silly," is that somebody is still defending the 2023 Joey Gallo experiment. No, both aren't be true, because an average MLB player isn't 50 PAs away from being a DFA'd or stashed with exaggerated (at best) injury.
  7. KirbyDome89
    Well, no, I argued that Gallo's one offensive skill happens to be something OPS+ values highly, i.e. I believe his final tally is skewed. I'm also sure I was clear that Gallo can be viewed as an outlier and OPS+ overrating his offensive contribution isn't condemnation of the stat as a whole. If you think that being a DFA candidate for 80% or more of your 300+ PAs means you've been an average offensive performer, Idk what to tell you, we'll just disagree.... The genesis of the argument you jumped into was another poster pointing to hindsight as a reason the Twins didn't move on from Gallo, and then citing his "average," offensive performance. If your stance is "his stats would look worse if they gave him 600 PAs instead of 300," I'm thrilled to say that I agree. Do you have anything of substance to add to the argument, or are you just being an antagonistic ***hole?
  8. KirbyDome89
    Yep, I'm rooting for him. I'd much rather have what we hope Martin can be than what we know Duvall is; I'm just not in a hurry to be relying on MLB production from a guy who hasn't been all that consistent in the high minors.
  9. KirbyDome89
    He had a .717 OPS in September.
  10. KirbyDome89
    The trade didn't seem to bother him at the time it occured; Idk why it would cause him to spiral in 2022. I feel the same way about the pandemic stuff. He had a rough start to 2022 and he didn't finish well last year either. I don't think injuries explain away his lack of production.
  11. KirbyDome89
    "The price you're paying for the production far outweighs the value of those homers." If only you had kept reading....
  12. KirbyDome89
    Martin scuffled at AAA in 2022 and posted good numbers for only 1/3 of his short season last year. He hasn't shown the ability to consistently hit AAA pitching in 2 years. Duvall and Gordon aren't sexy options, but it makes sense.
  13. KirbyDome89
    The "half season," wasn't due to injury. It was performance related. I don't know why this is difficult; the pros don't outweigh the cons. You can play him for 140+ games and maybe get 35-40 HRs, but the price you're paying for the production far outweighs the value of those homers. Kepler's hot streak to Luis Arraez's runs scored. Lol, pure entertainment at this point. Keep going!
  14. KirbyDome89
  15. KirbyDome89
    Sure you did, the "benefit of hindsight," is irrelevant when Gallo is putting up the numbers I posted earlier. The idea that the team needed to watch him be awful for 5 months instead of 3, because you can't know for certain in the moment, is nonsense. The FO needed to roster him for the off chance he'd put up a career 2-3 month stretch a la Kepler? What an argument.... Miguel Sano could probably do that with a 50% K rate too. Go look at how the variables are weighted for determining OPS+. Tell me HRs aren't heavy. That doesn't mean the stat is "wacked," and if you want to argue that Gallo is an extreme/outlier that stretches the formula I'd tend to agree, but if you want to say he was remotely close to an average offensive performer last year than you either weren't watching, or you're being willfully obtuse.
  16. KirbyDome89
    That's what I'm asking you. You implied that Gallo basically duped this FO into holding onto him with a few good weeks in April. Do you think they were unaware of his production woes by the end of June, or July? You said it yourself, he wasn't playing regularly by the middle of the season. Do you think that maybe had something to do with the FO and coaching staff realizing how terrible he was? Yet he still hung onto that roster spot.... Wallner had an OPS in the mid .900s by the end of May. It was closer to 1.000 by the end of June. They didn't have to look long or hard....
  17. KirbyDome89
    .160/.272/.366 with a 46% (yes that's correct) K rate in May through July. "Hindsight is 20/20," is being massively exaggerated here. Do you honestly think a remotely competent FO wasn't aware how terrible he was by the middle of the season? I fail to see how "they don't play him every day," or hitting 21 HRs is somehow a defense for posting that god awful slash line.
  18. KirbyDome89
    He had a couple nice weeks in April, and from that point forward he was atrocious. He was miserable in May, just as bad in June, ect. He was average defensively, and the fact that he finished with a 101 OPS+ says more about that stat than Gallo's performance. If anybody watched Joey Gallo last year and though he was an average offensive player.....woof. It wasn't difficult to "back off," him, the FO simply refused to acknowledge he was a sunk cost. That's a legitimate fear with Santana.
  19. KirbyDome89
    By weeks you mean months right?
  20. KirbyDome89
    "Santana, who turns 38 in April, showed serious decline in some key hitting metrics last year, going from a .372 xwOBA in 2022 (88th percentile) to .305 in 2023 (23rd percentile). His exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate all fell off the table." I remember watching him with KC and thinking he was toast. No chance he gets the Gallo/Andrelton Simmons treatment right? Yeesh.....
  21. KirbyDome89
    I think Varland is unproven. I'm not even that high on him, but if you're going to bump him from the rotation, do it for a pitcher that's clearly better and preferably someone who affects the rotational hierarchy other than just the 5 spot (I'd happily settle for just "better," though.) DeSclafani is a replacement level starter that's filling out the rotation. I very much want to avoid those guys, which is why I too hope they flip him, pay somebody else to roster him, whatever. Varland in STP is good if my above criteria is met. I don't doubt we'll see Louie at some point; I disagree with the path we'll take to get there though. Stashing the better option and investing MLB innings into a retread under the guise of "depth," is self defeating. I'm just not in on hoping a 34 year old who was shut down with elbow issues last year rediscovers his form from 3 years ago. I don't want him in STP for the reasons listed above. Sure, if we had a solid rotation I'd absolutely agree.
  22. KirbyDome89
    So we're going to pretend you didn't imply that a lack of support for the move equates to a lack of understanding? Gotcha. An odd response indeed.... Lol thank you for hammering home my point.
  23. KirbyDome89
    Yes, we all get it, you're an organizational sycophant who loves to argue from authority and anybody who disagrees with said authority is a dumb***. Riverbrian did a nice job of laying out the issues with platooning earlier in the thread. Go back and read it.
  24. KirbyDome89
    "A strong platoon with Farmer vs. LHP and Julien vs. LHP is all but guaranteed to outproduce Polanco." What words am I putting in your mouth? Worst case scenario? C'mon....You don't have to take what I'm saying seriously, but if your response is to stick your fingers in your ears, I'd refrain from dumping on anybody else's argument. League wide perspective is exactly why I prefer Varland over DeSclafani. Give me the younger guy, with some actual upside, instead of the semi washed vet whose ceiling is fringe backend guy. This isn't tough to understand. If you're going to trot out a .500 ERA every 5th day, have it be somebody that maybe takes some steps forward and contributes beyond this year. DeSclafani is either moved, in the opening day rotation, or in the pen. I think options 1 and 2 are far more likely. If you want to argue that he won't bump Varland go ahead, we'll just disagree. Two teams are paying DeSclafani to not be on their roster. Idk if other clubs were lining up to throw $10M at him. You realize he was hitting 2 hole for them in the postseason right? But "bad faith," huh?....
  25. KirbyDome89
    It's guaranteed? Polanco was better vs. LHP in 2021, and the two have basically rotated who was better vs. LHP each year since Farmer starting playing regularly. I definitly don't think it's a given that 34 year old Kyle Farmer outproduces Polanco vs. LHP, in which case the platoon becomes more of an issue. Do I think it's unreasonable to favor the Farmer/Julien platoon? No. Do I believe that last season was Julien's floor and Kyle Farmer posts a .800+ OPS vs. LHP? Also, no. 23 player is less than one per club. You're making my point for me here. No, the Twins (and most teams) didn't have a large number of guys reach 500 PAs because 1) injuries occur 2) baseball is matchup dependent, and most players aren't matchup-proof. Why are they worse? Is that really a question? They moved a top of the lineup bat for a prospect and/or a RP. For me it's that simple. I don't want a .500 ERA #6 spot. I don't see that as "depth," or some sort of W. If the Twins are trotting out a 34 year old on a 1 year deal with a .500 ERA every 5th start I'll be incredibly annoyed, and honestly everybody else should be too. Louie Varland can probably give you a .500 ERA, or at least something close. That's not impressive, but at minimum Varland has some upside, at least until he shows he doesn't. The entire point is that if you're going to bump him from the rotation (and maybe that isn't the plan) then it should be a move that reshuffles most, if not nearly all, of the rotation.
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