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KirbyDome89

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Everything posted by KirbyDome89

  1. KirbyDome89
    What could go wrong....
  2. KirbyDome89
    For sure his value rises if it's CF or bust. I'm not nearly as confident the Twins will take such a hardline stance. Hopefully I'm wrong.
  3. KirbyDome89
    He actually kinda was that bad last year. For a guy who has morphed into a 3 outcome hitter, and whose power is being touted, you can't post a below average OPS+ while clogging up the DH spot for the entire season. That's awful, and it undeniably hurt the Twins in ways other than just subpar production from the DH. It actually is encouraging that his sprint speed and base running grade out so well, but their impact is severely minimized when you're getting on base at a below average rate. I get why we're reaching to find some silver lining here, but a 2nd procedure on a (potentially?) chronic knee issue, on top of a lengthy injury history, on the heels of his worst season in the last 5 years doesn't leave much room for good vibes, no matter how hard we look.
  4. KirbyDome89
    I think Lewis is the most likely to "regress," at least as far as fan perception is concerned. I'm skeptical that his 2nd half numbers are sustainable, but aside from that it seemed like everything (sans injury) broke right for him last year. Maybe that's just me, but the run on grand slams, the 2 HR playoff game, his spot in the lineup seemingly finding its way into clutch/important moments, all of it felt like it came up roses. I hope you're right, and that's just us watching a budding superstar. Hopefully people realize that if Lewis does "regress," to being a very good player, that is still a massive win for this franchise. I see Julien as a coin flip. His July wasn't going to last. Idk if his August/September/October finish was the league adjusting without him having enough ABs to counter, or maybe his SSS in the postseason was him trending back up. The lack of ABs (and production) against LHP scares me regardless. If he's a platoon option who struggles to be even average at 2B I'd be disappointed. I'm also least confident in Wallner. The profile, the playoffs, maybe it's unfair but I just don't see him as a corner OF fixture.
  5. KirbyDome89
    I agree that the primary issue is the personnel, i.e. the talent, and not necessarily the approach. That said, the personnel isn't likely to change much, so the question really becomes at what point does that risk start to outweigh the reward? I'd argue that most of last year we were treated to the former and not the latter. How many times last season did we watch this team look inept (especially against LH pitching) for lengthy stretches and then explode? So sure, on average, things might look perfectly fine, but that type of inconsistency is exactly what sunk this club in the postseason. Also, we need to acknowledge how heavily OPS values HRs when using it in this context. It's funny that Gallo was mentioned as addition by subtraction. He was considered league average by OPS+ last year. If you watched even semi casually you know that's nowhere close to true. Matt Wallner isn't a stranger to K's. Julien hasn't shown (in a very limited SS) any ability to put together competitive ABs vs. LHP, and neither of the two finished last year on a particularly strong note. Lewis's run in the 2nd half is very likely unsustainable, and he has (again in small samples) put together some high K stretches. That doesn't mean this offense is doomed but I'm not sure things are markedly better. As a side note, yes I would rather see this team win than struggle to scratch across runs a la Cleveland, but the Twins played a pretty unwatchable brand of baseball themselves for a large part of last year as well.
  6. KirbyDome89
    Such a hard pass on Manoah. Injury concerns aside (and those very much exist) the guy straight up quit on Toronto last year, and by most accounts was an absolute ass about doing some rehab/reset work in the minors.
  7. KirbyDome89
    Their willingness to go through with the offer isn't what's in question here. You and I could submit offers that are 20-30% under market for the homes we want, and have every intention of spending that amount, but we also forfeit the right to moan when we aren't the winning bid no? Correa literally fell into their lap. The Twins didn't circle "their guy," and go get him. It took and all time bizarre FA saga for him to end up in MN.
  8. KirbyDome89
    MN was Correa's 3rd choice at best. If he passes a physical in SF he's a Giant, ditto for NY.
  9. KirbyDome89
    Wow, what a POS. Ethics and all else aside, I'd love to know how LA is protected, i.e. allowed, to use the exempt list this way. It feels like a classic case of abusing the system here. If there was ever a time for the MLBPA to get involved (and mine some good will) this would be it.
  10. KirbyDome89
    Looking at his career, a half season in CF is probably his ceiling. He hasn't done that in 4 years now. I mean, if we can't be skeptical at this point, can we ever?
  11. KirbyDome89
    Yeah, this feels like a typical "best shape of their life," kinda offseason article. I'm not sure what "fully recovered," even means in this context, or at this point for Buxton. The word chronic was used frequently last season was it not?
  12. KirbyDome89
    Eh, he has a slightly less than 0 WPA over those two years. 2022 was an absolute disaster, and despite last season not coming to close to that level of awful, the team still had to bury him near the bottom of the pen for a large portion of the season and essentially spoon feed him low leverage innings because he struggled with runners, inherited or allowed, and high leverage. Idk if I'd say he was a net positive during his Twins tenure.
  13. KirbyDome89
    He is a bargain, but that's relative. IMO it's unlikely another team sends a great pitching or catching prospect in return for him, that doesn't mean he "isn't worth playing."
  14. KirbyDome89
    I guess if you ignore all context, i.e. the length of his contract, his age, the needs/budget of the team trading for him, the 2B market in general, ect.
  15. KirbyDome89
    If you're parlaying him into a Gray replacement I'm open to the idea of a swap. Moving Polanco hurts this offense, and if you're going to deal from an area that isn't a strength, returning impact talent is about the only justifiable swap if the goal is to improve upon this last season.
  16. KirbyDome89
    What team is giving up a good to great pitching or catching prospect for 2 years of Polanco in his 30s? That seems like a pipe dream to me. Figure out what you're doing in CF. Are you bringing in an actual, everyday CF'er and relegating Buxton to full time DH, or is Buxton playing regularly in CF until he' inevitably lands on the IL. To me there's no in-between. Starting a backup in CF for 120+ games while Buxton clogs the DH spot while also trading one of the better bats from an already inconsistent lineup is terrible roster management. Sure, and I don't disagree, but there's a way to trust your young guys without weakening your team.
  17. KirbyDome89
    .223/.376/.369 with a 32% K rate. That was Julien from August through the end of the year. He has to be able to stick defensively and show he's capable of handling LHP too. This isn't a slam dunk.
  18. KirbyDome89
    Are they getting a legit starting CF'er and not a backup/4th OF'er type? Clogging up the DH spot and penciling in an offensive black hole in CF daily seems like a much poorer asset management strategy. Julien's ability to hold down 2B at even a passable level defensively is still a massive question mark. There are plenty of ABs in the DH role and 1B for him alongside the occasional starts at 2B. I don't understand why we're in a hurry to move valuable depth on the IF in order to make room for what is likely much less valuable depth in the OF.
  19. KirbyDome89
    Exactly. If an actual blueprint existed somebody would've cracked the code by now.
  20. KirbyDome89
    This is just one part of the equation that the "be the Rays," crowd doesn't want to acknowledge. If it was that easy to replace established talent with cheap, young players and maintain or improve production, every team would do it. Every. Single. One. The line between TB and those Pittsburgh teams of the early 2000s into the 2010s is razor thin. Idk why anybody would prefer the Twins operate like TB when, as has been pointed out across this thread, the funds are are there, i.e. available, if MN wants to spend. You're fighting a losing battle. Not because you're wrong, it's just impossible to "win," an argument against an internet GM. I can't believe the credentials card hasn't been played yet.
  21. KirbyDome89
    Was he? I thought the rationale was he'd bounce back with the bat, i.e. a HR obsessed FO thought they found a reclamation project capable of mashing nothing but HRs. You can squint and understand that gamble. $11M for a glove first corner OF'er? Yikes.
  22. KirbyDome89
    This. Aside from the oblique and hamstring injuries, everything seemed to break right for Lewis this year. The grand slams, "clutch," hitting or at least the perception that he delivered in big moments, the HR binge, game one of the WC, the BAbip, on and on. A lot of it feels unsustainable, and that's ok, because he can still be a very good or even great player, but this season is going to be the standard for a while, which means some people are going to be disappointed.
  23. KirbyDome89
    This isn't even remotely true. I mean c'mon....
  24. KirbyDome89
    Yeah, a grain of salt is important here. These are organizational coaches talking about players in the organization. The corpse of Dallas Keuchel was starting meaningful games and a handful of formerly young arms from the minors took turns flaming out at the back end of the pen while the Twins waited for Brock Stewart of all people to return from injury and stabilize things, but "depth," is being touted. No bar too low I suppose. FWIW I'm not trashing Culpepper, or the article, I'm trashing the idea that a 22 year old who hasn't thrown a pitch outside of A ball should be passed off as an example of FO ingenuity.
  25. KirbyDome89
    This article could be written 30 times by 30 different teams. A 22 year old "depth," piece with zero time spent outside of A ball is the crow you want to serve? Smh....
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