KirbyDome89

Not if he's CF insurance.

He has posted an OPS north of .700 once in his career, and that was seven seasons ago.

Sure, but I agree with what you said upthread, go sign the AAAA or high injury risk guy to a MiLB deal and stash them. Instead, this FO gave DeSclafani, who has no options, a spot in the rotation and bumped somebody with a higher floor and possibly a higher ceiling. I think DeSclafani likely is a spare part, but it's hard to argue the Twins viewed him as just some throw in when they're going out of their way to make room for him. As for the leash, who knows? There are plenty of recent examples where guys overstayed their welcome.

I don't think he has much (if any) value either but clearly the Twins do/did if they're slotting him into the opening day rotation.

Solano was playing 1B basically full time until mid May with an OPS 100 points below what Julien posted. Yeah Julien was a butcher at 2B, but it's not like the Twins were trotting out anybody elite, or even close to it at 1B. He didn't get better because he was up and down 2x, he started to put up some impressive numbers because the team decided to feed him some consistent playing time from June onward.

He didn't start the season on the active roster. He (Julien) also had a .762 OPS in April/May for an offensively challenged team. That isn't exactly amazing, but it's not like the Twins were so loaded they couldn't carve out ABs for the guy.

I don't think it's simply a cost issue. This FO loves to give vets every opportunity to prove that they're unfit for their role and/or undeserving of a roster spot.

Yeah I'm not excited by anybody in in trio, but I'd say Duvall at least can compensate for his shortcomings in an area that's most impactful for this club. Idk what qualifies as an empty PA, but Margot's own on base skills are far from impressive and there's no power there. Maybe he slaps his way to another mid .200s average.

The overabundance of Ks is awful to watch, and it undoubtedly hurt the team last year. Is Margot being a subpar offensive player in the extreme opposite manner the lesser of two evils? Idk, at some point I think it ceases to matter.

Can you show us that they do? Are you somehow privy to hard revenue numbers across all of baseball? Astonishing that anybody has to actually ask that question.

"But there are definitely other players that can have a positive impact on our team that [president of baseball operations Derek Falvey], I'm sure, is looking at." The optimistic view points to trades. If this team is going to "live where they're at," or however the hell it was phrased, i.e. they're capped, Idk what type of impact player they'll trade for that won't affect the "right sized," payroll, while also providing the type of control this FO obviously covets. Good luck. A Luplow or Keuchel could just as easily fit the "positive impact," bill as far as this team is concerned.... "You see that both with the Tampa Bay Rays and with the Baltimore Orioles having lower payrolls, turning out very successful products on the field but also investing in other areas of the business. That is something that we are doing. But without a question the television situation is having an impact on our business but beyond that we're just trying to right-size our business. That goes into it as well." Problem solved guys, just develop like TB or have Baltimore's farm system + young MLB talent. Hilarious. "What I will say about some flexibility is, when Derek (Falvey) and his team think there is the right opportunity in front of us, we don't live hard and fast by a specific number." Like coming off your first postseason W in nearly two decades? With a promising group of young players? While also having established veterans at or near their prime? Do these guys hear themselves talk?

Yeah, Willie Castro is the fallback in CF, Carlos Santana is already platooning at 1B (and he's one Kirilloff injury/IL stint away from regular starts) and Anthony DeSclafani is taking the mound every 5th day but we're worried about Snell, Montgomery, or Bellinger blocking guys?

Huh? He only made a few starts, but he was part of the rotation to open the season. I'd consider that part of the plan. Agreed, banking on that many guys reaching or exceeding career highs in IPs again, as well as matching or improving performance seems like a near impossible ask.

I think people forget how fortunate the starting unit (sans Mahle) was from a health/production standpoint. The Twins relied heavily on the the starting staff and they needed a Cy Young runner up season from Gray to get to 87 wins. Idk if I'd call concern over replacing that type of production hand wringing.

This. I think his HR total overstates his value. Clearly others don't. What can you do...

For sure, a HR is unquestionably a better outcome than a double, and I'm not going to pretend to know exactly how that value is derived, but looking at Gallo's 2023 and seeing seeing average attached, Idk what conclusion to make other than he's an outlier.

Yes, because we're hoping for the status quo, not a bounce back, and Santana's role from the jump is lesser one. No, because I don't trust that the FO will pull the plug when necessary. Overall, signing a 38 year old on the decline isn't something to celebrate. They're buying time, and I'm ok with that (right now) when the alternative is guys with little to no MLB success/experience.

Do you think a HR is worth 2x more than a 2B? OPS(+) overrates somebody like Gallo, who has a disproportionally high percentage of his hits leave the park but offers nothing in the way of a rounded offensive game. "By the numbers," he's average, but his OPS is carried by his slugging, which is carried entirely by HRs. Heavy. Like I said earlier, the juice wasn't worth the squeeze. Yes, disagreement makes me an idiot; meanwhile, you're touting Gallo's ability to reach base. Glass houses and stones yada yada...

Quantify the weight? The multiplier is there for all to see. C'mon, this is a dead end. So because the BB% didn't lead where you thought it would, OPS needs to be reintroduced? Smh, this is off the rails. We're done.

It feels a lot like shuffling the bottom of your bench, hoping you find that diamond in your fantasy league.

Could I rattle off the exact weights assigned? No. Does that mean I don't understand what they're attempting to quantify? Also no. Lucky for us, these equations, aren't kept under lock and key. A .301 OBP would've put Gallo in front of only 8% of qualified hitters. Moving him to an average OBP jumps that number to 35%. Adding another 20 points of OBP has a similar effect; he's better than 65% of qualified hitters. Yeah, I'm going to stick with 20 points being kind of a big deal. Yep, I'm fully aware of your "by the numbers," stance. I'm saying those number(s) aren't painting an accurate picture. You disagree. It's ok. Yikes, that's a tough look huh....

Literally said HRs are weighted heavily. That actually is pretty far off but don't let that minor detail get in the way. Never once implied his April was worthless. Nope, "my narrative," is that the juice wasn't worth the squeeze and continuing to roster him was a mistake that didn't require the benefit of hindsight to correct. Controversial take, I know.

Anytime friend! **How the variables are weighted. Different outcomes are assigned different values. Yeah no, OPS+, wOBA, and wRC+ are all saying the same thing, he's average. Thanks for the "education," though. Uh huh, and despite the walks he still couldn't come close to reaching base at an average clip. I've never argued that what Gallo can do well is invaluable, I said what he does well doesn't compensate for his shortcomings. I could go 6 for 8 with 5 HRs + a double in 2 games, and then revert to mid summer Gallo for the rest of the month and my cumulative stats would probably still look decent, but if I'm a net negative 80% of the time, yeah, I'd argue the aggregate fails to paint an accurate picture of my true contribution, or lack thereof. His production, or value PA by PA, isn't reflected. Just watching games even remotely regularly, you know that, but seeing that he was nowhere near an average offensive player for 5/6 of the season should cement it. What's "silly," is that somebody is still defending the 2023 Joey Gallo experiment. No, both aren't be true, because an average MLB player isn't 50 PAs away from being a DFA'd or stashed with exaggerated (at best) injury.

Well, no, I argued that Gallo's one offensive skill happens to be something OPS+ values highly, i.e. I believe his final tally is skewed. I'm also sure I was clear that Gallo can be viewed as an outlier and OPS+ overrating his offensive contribution isn't condemnation of the stat as a whole. If you think that being a DFA candidate for 80% or more of your 300+ PAs means you've been an average offensive performer, Idk what to tell you, we'll just disagree.... The genesis of the argument you jumped into was another poster pointing to hindsight as a reason the Twins didn't move on from Gallo, and then citing his "average," offensive performance. If your stance is "his stats would look worse if they gave him 600 PAs instead of 300," I'm thrilled to say that I agree. Do you have anything of substance to add to the argument, or are you just being an antagonistic ***hole?

Yep, I'm rooting for him. I'd much rather have what we hope Martin can be than what we know Duvall is; I'm just not in a hurry to be relying on MLB production from a guy who hasn't been all that consistent in the high minors.