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Cap'n Piranha

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Everything posted by Cap'n Piranha

  1. Cap'n Piranha
    Directionally accurate, but mathematically erroneous. Also, mop-up relievers and third catchers will continue to be, almost exclusively, rookie-scale guys. The minimum salary for an MLB player will not exceed $12M for decades, assuming major league baseball is still a thing that far into the future.
  2. Cap'n Piranha
    Must be just you. I've been reliably informed by multiple people on this site that all owners are greedy, parsimonious misers cruelly depressing wages in order to screw the decent, hard working players.
  3. Cap'n Piranha
    I'm not so sure that Correa agrees to the proposed creative contract, unless I'm understanding it wrong. Is the gist that even if the Twins pick up the extra 5 years for $125M, Correa can still opt out after the very next season? If so, in what world do the Twins opt for a 5yr $125M contract which runs from 2027-2031, but a non-injured Correa does not immediately opt out after the 2026 season? Keep in mind that 5 years from $25M a year will be borderline second starter money, not future HOF at the tail of their prime money. If the Twins exercising that 5 year option negates any opt out for Correa, Correa is essentially maxing out at 9/$300, with a real risk of "only" realizing 4/$175M. As others have pointed out, Correa is going to want to maximize his earnings, so he's going to want a very clear path to $300M minimum, and this contract creates a real risk to that happening if he gets injured or declines in the next 3 years.
  4. Cap'n Piranha
    I think Falvinelli are in complete and total lock step, which is why I put the pen more on Falvine than Baldelli. All 3 of them think they have cracked a code by limiting starters to 4-6 innings depending on when the order turns over for the second time. The thing is, they’re right. The stats are undeniable. However; there was never a plan to address bulking up the bullpen to pitch 486-810 innings, which is why the Twins have generally rolled out 8 guys who more or less only pitch one inning, and need a day off after pitching in order to stay highly effective. Combine that with Baldelli’s penchant to use all his best bullpen options anytime the game’s margin is 3 or less, and you have a recipe to blow out your bullpen constantly. If the FO wants to continue their “5-and-fly” strategy, they MUST dedicate a significant amount of resources to the pen this offseason. Theilbar and Jax need to be your 5th and 6th option at best, and you need at least 2 guys that can handle 3-4 innings every third day. If they can’t get that done, and they still refuse to get more innings from starters, then Falvine should be told they’ll need to start paying for tickets to Twins games (because they were fired).
  5. Cap'n Piranha
    I would phrase it as the car didn’t break down, but nor did it turn on. At no point this year have the Twins looked like a team that was going to make any other team nervous in a playoff series.
  6. Cap'n Piranha
    The utter failure of the FO, knowing full well they would need 3-5 innings from the pen every day, to devote anything close to requisite resources to the bullpen.
  7. Cap'n Piranha
    As unlikely as making the playoffs are, I have to wonder why we would even want to. We’d either get the Rays and their all-around competence, the imposing lineup of the Blue Jays, or the Mariners who will trot out Castillo, Ray, and Gilbert. Any ways you cut out, no way this team takes 2 of 3 against any of those teams. Now is the time to see who can be helpful for next year. Archer should be shut down for the year, Bundy should be released, Pagan DFA’d, etc. Bring up SWR and Wallet at minimum, and then anyone else with a pulse across the river.
  8. Cap'n Piranha
    See, that's the thing. I never thought they had a fighting chance in last night's game once it reached the bottom of the 5th, for all the reasons I outlined above. Just to get the win, the Twins would need to put up 3 runs in 4 innings (which is the most they had scored in any game for the past week; it's not like the offense is firing on all cylinders right now), while simultaneously completely shutting down a Houston offense that had scored 14 runs in the previous 20 innings for 5 innings. Two of those innings were probably going to have to come from Megill and Pagan as well. In reality, Rocco should have assumed the Twins needed at least 4, and maybe 5 runs to actually win last night's game, and understood that his lineup is just not producing at that level, or anywhere near it, right now. As a consequence, he should have pitched Megill in the 5th, Pagan in the 6th (since they were going to have to pitch anyways), and reassessed at that point. So to answer your question, had Rocco let Megill and Pagan pitch 2 innings last night, and watched the 5-3 game turn into a 9-3 one, I would have been glad that we would be going into a weekend series against a much softer opponent with all our best bullpen options at full strength. Anyone who prefers chasing an 18% chance to win instead of keeping the powder dry for a 56% chance to win is a prime example of why Las Vegas makes so much money.
  9. Cap'n Piranha
    The alternative was not to chase a win that had a very low probability of happening. The Twins were already down 2 runs. They had fewer at bats left than their opponent. Those Twins at-bats were going to represent a higher percentage of lesser hitters than the Astros' at bats. And perhaps most importantly, even if Duran, Jax, and Lopez all pitched a scoreless inning, the Twins would still need to get at least 6 outs from other relievers anyways (perhaps 9 or 12). Had it been 5-3 going into the bottom of the 7th, I would have understood the move a bit more; I still wouldn't have done it, but at least it would have had the benefit of knowing that you didn't need to throw Megill/Pagan (since in this scenario they would have already pitched). I would also understand the decision, and support it a bit more if the opponent was CWS or CLE, because division games count for two. Same if they had today off. The consequences tonight might very not be modest. And they might not end tonight. That is the point I'm making; Rocco took a game the Twins had a 17.8% chance of winning going into the bottom of the 5th, and threw his 3 best arms at it. The consequence is that 1 loss might turn into 2 or 3--that is not modest, and it should have been entirely predictable to any person who understands math and probability. I personally would include Rocco in the group of people who understand math and probability. The fact that he eschewed those two last night can only be explained in my opinion by desperation. Rocco felt the Twins had to have a win, and in chasing that, he not only lost, but put himself in a worse spot to get future wins.
  10. Cap'n Piranha
    Would Lopez and Duran have appeared last night if the Twins were losing 9-1 in the fifth inning? If Rocco was deadset on using them, why not use one as an opener then instead?
  11. Cap'n Piranha
    They didn't know when they removed Duran or Jax that the offense would fail to close the gap for 3 innings. It should have been pretty foreseeable that the offense not closing the gap was a real possibility, given that the Twins were slated to send hitters 4-6 to the plate in the 6th. Seeing as how it was also guaranteed that the Astros 1-5 hitters would appear at least once more, and in all probability twice more after the 5th inning, you could easily save Duran/Jax/Lopez for the Astros' best hitters. The decision was non-sensical when it was made, it (predictably) did not work, and it increased the chances that the Twins losing streak will grow to 7/8 games, since the 3 best bullpen arms will be either unavailable or at an increased likelihood of performing poorly until at least Sunday.
  12. Cap'n Piranha
    Sure, they are available, in that they are both physically able to pitch. But they will likely be diminished versions of themselves, given that they will be pitching on no rest. Here are the numbers for Duran and Jax when they pitch on rest against no rest (warning, extremely SSS on the no rest side, as it's 4 appearances for 3.2 IP for Duran and 6/4.1 for Jax) Duran with rest--51 IP, 0.98 WHIP, 1.76 ERA, 11.6 k/9, 0.7 HR/9, 2.3 bb/9 Duran on no rest--3.2 IP, 1.09 WHIP, 4.90 ERA, 9.8 k/9, 4.9 HR/9, 0 bb/9 Jax with rest--37.1 IP, 1.15 WHIP, 3.86 ERA, 11.8 k/9, 1.2 hr/9, 2.9 bb/9 Jax on no rest--4.1 IP, 1.90 WHIP, 10.71 ERA, 6.4 k/9, 0 hr/9, 4.3 bb/9 Hard to draw conclusions given the paucity of data, but some clear deltas in performance that echo those seen in other relief pitchers I've looked at (such as 2018-2020 Taylor Rogers). Lopez has more data, and for him the differences are pronounced; With rest--30 IP, 0.90 WHIP, 1.20 ERA, 10.8 k/9, 0.6 hr/9, 1.8 bb/9 On no rest--15.1 IP, 1.50 WHIP, 3.53 ERA, 7.1 k/9, 0.6 hr/9, 5.9 bb/9 I don't think it's unreasonable to anticipate an increased likelihood of poor performance from those 3 should they be used tonight, meaning if the three of them are tasked to hold a one-run lead in innings 7-9, they're more likely to blow that lead, and potentially the game. If any of the three are used tonight, I think we can all agree they are unavailable tomorrow. So it's a distinct possibility that by chasing an unlikely win, Rocco will leave himself with a much worse bullpen for the first game or two of the SF series. Poor managing that should have been very easy to identify as poor managing; unless you are feeling desperate to get a win, and that desperation leads you into making low-probability-of-success choices.
  13. Cap'n Piranha
    Down two, Twins have 12 outs left and the 4th batter next up. Houston has 15 outs left, and the third batter next up. This suggests the Twins would be lucky to have their 1-3 hitters bat twice, while Houston was almost assured to have their 1-3 hitters bat twice. Given that, it was patently insane to use Duran, Jax, and Lopez to chase a lead when you would still need at least 6 outs from, let’s say unsteady, options. Now, at least 2 of those 3 are unavailable Friday night in a close game; not exactly unlikely given the Twins recent offensive struggles. Rocco seems like the guy who calls a raise with a pair of sixes because he’s pot committed. In the real world, this move betrays what most be near desperation in the clubhouse. To use assets so foolishly, in a scenario so unlikely to break in one’s favor, indicates panic-induced poor decision making.
  14. Cap'n Piranha
    It's only relevant in determining if the Twins overpaid on the already inflated cost. As it turns out, unless Correa makes it to 4.4ish WAR, the Twins will have overpaid twice. There are a handful of teams that can afford to do that: the Twins cannot. Of course no roster is filled out with guys whose rank by salary and rank by WAR are identical. But that's not the point that I, or anyone else saying similar things, is making. The point we are making is that when you are the Twins, and you start handing out late-stage arbitration or FA deals/extensions, the production from rookie-scale or early-stage arbitration players is going to have to increase. Correa, Sanchez, and Kepler are making $51.1M this year; they've accounted for 5.1 WAR (on pace for about 7), leaving the rest of the roster to make $92M while needing to produce 35 WAR. That puts a lot of pressure on 23 players to either produce like all-stars, or be (relatively) low paid. Do you see the problem here?
  15. Cap'n Piranha
    It always makes me laugh when people talk about how a player produces enough WAR for their salary because they're at a 1 WAR per $8M ratio. That is only accurate when obtaining talent on the FA market, which is the absolute worst way to acquire talent. If the Twins wanted to win 90 games, and needed to spend $8M/WAR to do so, their payroll would have to be $336M. Putting it another way, if Correa is "worth" his contract, and puts up 4 WAR a year, and the Twins have a $140M payroll, that means the Twins need to get 38 WAR out of $105M, or $2.76M/WAR. That's going to be very difficult to do.
  16. Cap'n Piranha
    I would assume it's for the same reason you already mentioned; roster shenanigans. There has to be a max roster size, else what would keep the Dodgers/Yankees/Mets having way more prospects than the rest of the league?
  17. Cap'n Piranha
    Minor point, to be sure, but Sands last pitched on Tuesday the 16th, so 4 days, not a week.
  18. Cap'n Piranha
    Edgar Varela was reassigned to be an MiLB instructor this year; I find it unlikely he is the reason for the MLB club's struggles. Rowson has for the past 3 years been with a Miami organization that finished with a wRC+ of 94 (19th) in 2020, 83 (28th) in 2021, and 89 (25th) so far in 2022. While that is an improvement for Miami (79 and 29th in 2019), it's not so massive that Rowson returning fixes everything.
  19. Cap'n Piranha
    Perhaps Rocco made Pagan finish the game today as a message to Falvine? That message being, “please DFA this guy, and give me anyone else”
  20. Cap'n Piranha
    This makes no sense. Sure he was warmed up; he could just as easily have been sat back down. I didn't see the game, but did Fulmer continue to warm while the Twins scored each of their runs? He assuredly threw more pitches from the mound in between half innings. All of that is unnecessary strain on his arm.
  21. Cap'n Piranha
    I think you'll find very few Pagan supporters on this site. So long as your criticism of him is respectful and not excessive, you'll be totally fine.
  22. Cap'n Piranha
    Taken to an extreme yes, it can end up there. It's why I specifically pointed out that I had no problem with Rocco using Jax, Duran, and Lopez last night; it was a two-run game, and you needed a win. However, when Rocco used both Duran AND Lopez with a 4-run lead last Friday, that's where I have an issue. Both of them were pretty shaky on Saturday (they combined for a 2.5 WHIP and 13.50 ERA on Saturday, and were then unavailable Sunday), and I think you have to attribute at least some of that to pitching on back to back days. I would have much preferred Rocco used only one of Duran or Lopez, and had either Jax, Theilbar, or even Megill get the other 3 outs (if you can't rely on a guy to keep his ERA under 18 in 95% of their appearances, they should not be on the roster). If your relievers' effectiveness is diminished when they don't get rest, you have to get them at least 1 days rest. That means if you're going to empty the bullpen on a Monday, the options will be limited on a Tuesday, so Rocco needs to be very sure he is thinking that through. Last night made sense to empty the pen. Last Friday? Not so much in my opinion.
  23. Cap'n Piranha
    That's where you and I differ; I would much prefer the pitching chart with Pagan not on it.
  24. Cap'n Piranha
    Available and effective are not necessarily the same thing. I haven't crunched the numbers on specifically Duran or Lopez, but when I did that in the past for Taylor Rogers, it was clear as day that pitching on 0 days rest resulted in Rogers being pretty bad. Anecdotally, that holds for Lopez this past weekend.
  25. Cap'n Piranha
    Yet again Rocco has to use essentially every good bullpen option to nail down the win (not blaming him for that in this particular instance, just observing). It bit the Twins hard on Saturday and Sunday last; here's hoping the Twins bats can make the unavailability of the bullpen aces irrelevant tomorrow.
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