chpettit19

Indeed he is.

They should have a ton of money to spend this offseason. Pooling Maeda and Sonny's contracts together should be able to get them a Sonny level pitcher on the market. SWR, Festa, and Varland is a pretty nice start to your depth beyond Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Paddock, and FA X. I'd be absolutely shocked if Sonny or Maeda could bring back an arm that wouldn't be a question mark in the '24 rotation so I'm not sure what the argument is here. You can't fill that hole with the Sonny Gray trade so I don't see what it really has to do with whether or not you trade Sonny Gray. And a Comp A pick is basically the exact value it took to get 2 years of Sonny so it's pretty equal to be able to trade for a Sonny replacement with the value they get from the pick they get for Gray.

Betts was also an offseason trade.

The Twins went 2-4 against Baltimore this year. Including winning the first series 2-1. Which, in the wild card round, means winning the series and advancing. Went 3-3 against Toronto. 4-2 against Houston. Would I put a whole bunch of money on the Twins? No. But the Twins were .500 against those 3 squads so I'm not sure why the Twins would be shivering at those names either.

Every team that played in a series that went 4 games, or more, used 4 starters in that series last year except for the Yankees in the ALDS. The Yankees did add a 4th starter in the ALCS. Teams have 4 playoff starters. The Nats actually used 5 starters that year. Joe Ross and Annibal Sanchez both started games in the World Series. If the Twins strength is their rotation depth it doesn't make a lot of sense to not worry about the 4th spot. That'd be their best chance to win games since their top 3 aren't really blowing anyone else's top 3 out of the water. Their top 1 won't match up with anyone else's #1.

I wouldn't be actively looking to move Sonny Gray. I think he absolutely gets at least one 3/60 contract offer this offseason, and that's a top 40 pick for the Twins next year. That is a very valuable asset that other teams are likely not willing to tack on top of the value they have to pay for the last 2 months of Gray. But if a team is willing to part with enough to get both 2 months+playoffs of Gray, and a comp A pick worth of value I'd listen. But I don't see Gray as significantly better than the other 3 guys that'd make up the Twins playoff rotation as of today so I'd be listening in case somebody gets desperate. I also think that winning a single playoff game this year would be huge. As much as the players can say "we weren't here for this whole streak so it doesn't really matter" I think it does matter. I think hearing about it every season matters. And it definitely matters to most of the fan base. I think simply taking that monkey off the organizations back has great value. The question is if you need Sonny Gray to accomplish just that very meager goal. I'd argue no. But I'd also argue that anything can happen in the playoffs. Would their odds of advancing very far be great? Not likely unless 6 or 7 guys really turn things around at the plate against teams a whole lot better than Oakland. But weird things happen in the postseason all the time, and if you can keep this pitching going you'd have a chance in any series. And this team is built to win now. Not built very well offensively, but the goal was to win now. And if this team can't do it then a new FO is the ones who get to try to win for later, not these guys. I want nothing to do with them trying to be massive sellers. Don't want them trading away top prospects for just this year, either, but they don't get to be the rebuilders. Buy on the margins with a relief arm or 2. See what right handed bats are available for middling prospects. And cross your fingers that Correa, Buxton, Polanco, Lewis, and Kirilloff are all healthy and hitting how you expected come October.

It's entirely possible, but I don't think it's a lock at all. I think they'd go Lopez just like they did opening day. I think Lopez is their guy, and he gets game 1 if they have any chance to set a rotation unless one of the other guys separates themselves from the other 3.

I'm confused by the idea that it's clear he's not coming back, but he's also attempting to make it A LOT harder to trade him. Is the "not coming back" idea about just the Twins or baseball in general? His words in the Park article actually sound like a guy with every intention of coming back, but he'll leave it up to his kids. Kids who he says are loving having dad be a major leaguer, and just got to enjoy a pretty cool All Star break with him. I'm guessing he's absolutely playing baseball next year. So I read your words as him not coming back to MN next year, but then I'm confused on why his goal would be to make it harder to trade him if he doesn't even want to be here to start with. Aren't those ideas at least somewhat contradictory? And teams trade decent prospects for starting pitching at the deadline all the time. Even if they're an expiring deal. What teams likely won't do is trade a decent prospect for the expiring deal, and tack on enough to cover the comp A pick the Twins likely get from Gray signing elsewhere next year. And that's why it's less likely they'd get enough value in a trade for him. Unless they allow the other team to negotiate an extension with him first. That could boost their return.

I don't know that Sonny Gray would be their game 1 starter anyways, and I think that's a factor to be taken into account here. They have 4 guys that, at this point, they'd throw in a hat and pick out the order to throw them in a playoff series. Hopefully one or 2 of them start separating themselves over the next 2 months and you have a more distinct rotation for a playoff series, but right now Sonny would be anywhere from 1 to 4 in the playoff rotation, and I think the idea of selling your 4th in line is much different than selling your game 1 starter.

Gio Urshela has a fractured pelvis and is out for the season. He's a free agent after the year. If the Twins trade for him they better hope he's a great coach.

Yeah, I'm just not going to speak to the "heart" of any player. You're more than welcome to feel however you want to about that, but I'm not going to speculate about what anyone is putting in or sacrificing on or off the field.

Math and hitting are not comparable subjects. Hitting is a physical task that can be broken down and assessed by anyone. Math is a mental subject that you have to be able to do to teach it. I assume you're not a former major leaguer, but I'm pretty sure you can look at Gallo's swing and pick out a couple problems with it. I would bet every dollar I ever make for the rest of my life that there's a number of things you understand, and could explain how to do, but can't physically do it. Whole bunch of coaches in every sport weren't great at playing those sports, but know the game well. Knowing/teaching is not the same as doing when it comes to physical tasks. Not to mention the levels of "good." Popkins was a AA hitter. That's a pretty good hitter in the grand scheme of things. Barry Bonds was a pretty good hitter, but a terrible hitting coach. Mark McGwire as well. Being a retired baseball player doesn't make you capable of being a hitting coach. Rocco was an incredible baseball player. Plenty of people find him to be a less than stellar MLB coach/manager. They aren't the same thing.

I don't disagree that those things are needed, I'm just not sure they aren't already happening. Pretty sure we have a guy in there who's pretty famous for sign stealing. This is not a young team. None of them are Cruz's age, but this is a veteran team with a coaching staff full of guys who've been around a while. Correa, Buxton, Solano, Kepler, Vazquez, Gallo, Farmer, MAT, and Polanco are legit veteran players. Everyone can always learn more, and improve on their skills, but if you need another guy to come in to teach those 9 guys what to look for on a baseball field you're doomed anyways. Sonny Gray and Kenta are veterans who should be able to help them, too. If Rocco and Tingler aren't able to help guide Popkins in his role then they need to go because they can't do their jobs. If the FO can't see that those 2 can't guide the guys under them then they need to go because they can't do their jobs. Just hiring more and more coaches/advisors/"translators"/whatever you want to call it isn't an answer to me. If the guys in the org can't do their jobs replace them with someone who can.

I don't buy that argument. Nobody is running 3 man rotations in a 7 game series. The Yankees started 4 guys in the ALCS, not 3. So did the Astros. Phillies and Padres each started 4 guys in the NLCS. Phillies and Astros both started 4 guys in the WS. Phillies started 4 guys in the NLDS. So did the Braves. And Dodgers. And Padres. Cleveland started 4 guys in the ALDS. Yankees did only start 3 guys in that series, but that's the only series that went 4 games that any team didn't start 4 guys. The Yankees had 5 guys they were comfortable with starting in the playoffs. They needed help on offense. So they traded 1 of those 5 guys for offensive help. Severino only made 19 starts last year so he was a question mark in his own right. That Yankee situation is incredibly similar to the Twins current situation. Why would replacing Gray with Ober be a massacre? That's an extremely aggressive take when Ober has performed every bit as well as Sonny this year. Yes, Lopez would move to the top spot. I think you're overrating Sonny Gray by about a mile. He's not any better than Lopez, Ryan, or Ober. Those 4 are all very much on equal ground. The difference would be that Maeda would be the 4th starter instead of Ober. Yes, Ober is likely on an innings limit, but if they're going to shut him down for the playoffs I'd argue it's even more reason to trade Gray if you get the right package. If they're not even going to be willing to put their best team on the field in the playoffs they shouldn't really be worrying about the playoffs. I think we just see Gray, and maybe the rest of the rotation, very differently. And that's fine.

Really cool feature, @Brock Beauchamp! Thanks for putting this together.

St Paul is in MN so there's a little reason for him to be in the state 😜

I think the answer is Buxton in CF, Polanco at 2B, and Julien at DH to get the best team with the current players. But I don't think Buxton lasts long in CF and Polanco can't seem to stay healthy this year. But when Polanco and Lewis are both back it'd be nice to have the DH spot to rotate some guys through, and have Julien be able to be there most of the time. But I don't think Buxton can play CF for any real length of time, and that's super depressing.

He didn't make the majors, but he did play AA ball. Let's not act like he's just some random computer programmer they grabbed off the street to write computer models. He's played baseball at an incredibly high level. He's faced 100 mph fastballs. You're mischaracterizing who he is, and what he does.

I don't know that I agree with that either. I don't like talking about player's "heart." Judging outward emotion during 7 second clips of a player here and there is not a good way to measure "heart." I assume by "fire" you mean high energy, outward showing emotion. Lewis brings plenty of that. Buxton does as well. Cruz and Sano are not at all guys I think of when it comes to that kind of stuff. Rosario definitely had more outward emotion. Cruz's mere presence in the locker room didn't help San Diego this year. Or Washington last year. He very well may be a wonderful addition, but I have no reason to believe that's a sure thing. Every player in that clubhouse can talk hitting. Correa has been touted for years for his ability to take analytics data and translate it to the field. He's won championships. He brings fire and heart. Why isn't his mere presence helping anything? I just think people interpret what they want to out of what they see on TV, and feel about certain players. Can we all suggest guys we think would be helpful? Of course. But talking with such certainty about how people we know nothing about would do in improving this lineup is too far for me. Josh Donaldson is incredibly knowledgeable about hitting. There's great segments from MLB Network out there about him breaking down his swing, etc. It's incredible to watch. He has a ton of fire and heart. There's clips of him working with the young hitters in spring training when he was here. Should we look to bring him back after he retires?

And Molitor has actually coached so that'd make more sense. I'm stuck on the Cruz example because that's the one people were using, I commented on, and you responded to. But my overall point is that our suggestions, just like when they hire FO personnel, and the vast majority of coaches, are completely and totally uneducated. Mollie's managed, and been a coach before. Assuming the FO isn't completely incompetent they actually know what his ability to do this stuff is. People just throwing out random former hitters and saying they'd be able to fix things isn't based on anything real. There's a huge difference in being able to be a good hitter, and being able to help 13 individual guys be good hitters.

Knowing about hitting and being good helping other people hit well are not the same thing. Popkins knows about hitting. All the major league players on the roster know about hitting. They all know about hitting, can talk about hitting, and figure out what a pitcher is up to. All you're really saying is that Nelson Cruz was a good hitter so you assume he can make other people better. That's not how it works. The 3 guys performing well below their career norms have all been in the league for 9 years. You don't think they know hitting, talking about hitting, or figuring out what a pitcher is up to? If it takes them more than 9 years to figure out what a pitcher is up to they're probably not ever figuring out what a pitcher is up to.

Oh come on, observed what? Have you ever heard him talking with other hitters about that stuff? We have no real way of knowing anything at all about his ability to do anything at all when it comes to helping other hitters hit. He may be great at it. He may be horrible. We have literally no way of knowing that. Vazquez at career norms wouldn't make much of a difference at all. Buxton and Correa, yes. But your claim was that this isn't a talent concern. If the other 10 guys can't make up for 3 guys, one of which is a below average hitter to start with, enough to keep you over .500 when you have a top 3 pitching staff in baseball you have a talent problem. I'm not forgetting Miranda, but he doesn't have "career norms." He's a sophomore hitter who was going to need to make adjustments to the adjustments. Him struggling isn't shocking at all. It happens all the time. This is a flawed offense that lacks significant talent.

How do you know Cruz is rich in those skills? It's entirely possible that he is, but how would we actually know that? And how do you know Popkins is poor in them? Who's not performing at career levels outside of Buxton, Correa, and Vazquez? Now 2 of those guys are the most important guys they have, but who else isn't? Jeffers is having his best year. Castro has been better than his career norms. Gallo is doing what Gallo does. Kepler is doing what Kepler does. MAT is slightly below, but not outside a regular dip. Solano is doing what Solano does. Farmer is pretty much doing what he does. Polanco has been hurt. They have a bunch of 7 hole through bench bat guys on the team. Polanco, Buxton, and Correa are the only 3 guys on this team that would've come into this year with a top 6 lineup spot locked up on a contender. The rest of these guys simply aren't that good. And are "performing at an approximate level of career averages." Their 2 most important players have tanked, yes, but the rest of the individual players on this team are playing to the middle of their career norms. This lineup is not that talented.

I'm not sure why people seemed to be convinced Nelson Cruz would be a good hitting coach. He certainly might be, but I have no reason to be convinced of it. That Padres team that just let him go certainly wasn't improved by any of his input over there. The Twins should know him well enough to know what kind of coach he'd be, though. I have very fond memories of him, too, but that doesn't make him a good hitting coach. He clearly knows his swing well, but that doesn't mean he can break down other guy's swings. I see 1 call for Rowson already, and I'm sure we'll have more on this thread. Confused by that since he's had absolutely horrible offenses since he left. My thing with this offense is that it lacks talent. Rowson's offenses since he left have lacked talent. He wasn't able to turn them into even league average offenses. Why would we think he could do that here? You think the Twins offense is bad? Go look at the Tigers... No thanks on the Yankees guy. He may very well be a very good hitting coach, but this extreme analytics approach needs to go. I'd guess he'd be the type they'd hire if they fired Popkins, though. And that's why I'm quite indifferent about firing Popkins. Find it hard to believe they're going to suddenly be willing to change the approach they've had in place since they got here, and built this team around. And if they are going to try to do that I hope the new head Pohlad says "thanks, but no thanks, you're fired" if they go to him with the idea of changing their whole philosophy. You built your org around that philosophy and you haven't earned the chance to reshape the entire org again. Cashman has rings he can point to that suggest he's worthy of more leash so he can fire a hitting coach and try to switch things up. These guys don't. Don't let the FO throw Popkins, or any of the coaches, under the bus for the severely flawed offensive roster they assembled based on their flawed approach.

While I don't disagree with the take that these guys are doing what was pretty predictable, we have no reason to believe nobody would trade for Kepler or sign Gallo. Those things not happening aren't signs they weren't possible. I believe the FO that they had offers for Kepler. They probably weren't impressive. I think the FO severely overrated him. Not trading him for what they felt was too low of an offer isn't the same thing as nobody being willing to trade for him. Only 1 team can sign a player. When Ohtani signs this offseason you can't say that only that team was willing to sign him. The Twins misevaluating the players, and their worth, is not the same as nobody else in the league wanting them.