chpettit19

I tune into most games, but then it becomes a question of how long I watch based on how frustrating they are that day.

I certainly understand that thought process, but I'd move on to guys not on the 40-man. We know his ceiling, and it's not good enough. Let's give someone else a chance to see if they can have a higher ceiling. If you're going to go with the theory that bullpen arms can be found year to year by churning through them and finding the guy who has it that year (it's how they found Stewart) then you have to be willing to churn through them. He's churn worthy to me.

Jeren Kendall, Kyle Wright, Brendan McKay, JT Ginn, Carter Stewart, Matthew Libertore, Shea Langeliers, Braden Shewmake, Kody Hoese, Michael Busch, Greg Jones, Jared Shuster, Bobby Miller, Nick Bitsko. Those are the 1st round picks for the Braves, Dodgers, and Rays between 2017 and 2020 (so guys we should expect to be in the majors by now if they're really good). Wright is big time (and was a high pick), Busch is looking nice (wasn't a high pick), and the rest are a mix between "will never see the majors" and "ceiling of a solid regular." No, the draft isn't just throwing darts, but it's pretty close. These are the teams you're claiming are superior in drafting. Is drafting well important? Of course it is. But you're proving my point by admitting it's not just about having high picks, but actually being good at it. Is your argument that the Twins are good at it so being high is extra good? If so then ok, sound theory as far as drafting goes. But, as you point out, there's way more things you have to be good at to have a good team. And if the Twins aren't good at those things they're doomed anyways. None of what you said changes the fact that being bad isn't some automatic ticket to being good. Especially when you're actively trying to be good, and failing at it. At that point, being bad is likely an automatic ticket to being bad for longer. See: Royals, Tigers, Rockies, Pirates (all have been attempting to be good, failing, getting high picks, and continuing to be bad). Getting high picks doesn't suddenly make a team well run, or a FO good. But none of this really has anything to do with the idea that "there's a difference between 'prefer to make the playoffs than to miss the playoffs,' and 'happy just making the playoffs.'" You claimed it's "Minnesotan" to be "happy just making the playoffs." That's not what the other poster said. They said they'd rather make the playoffs than not. You then argued that that's the wrong stance, and they should want to miss the playoffs for better draft positioning, which lead us here. But that's not the point of my original comment. My original comment is that you changed the idea of what the other poster was saying. Just being happy making the playoffs is not the same as preferring to make the playoffs than miss the playoffs. They're fundamentally different ideas. Whether you think their stance is correct or not wasn't the point. The point was you changed what was being said. I also prefer they make the playoffs to not making the playoffs (in part because of what we've discussed since), but that doesn't mean I'm "happy just making the playoffs." Getting swept out of the playoffs doesn't make me happy. But it makes me happier than being the Tigers or Royals or Rockies and not making the playoffs at all. There's a difference between those 2 thoughts. That was my original point.

This is most definitely my biggest fear for him. His body has been telling him "no" pretty frequently for his whole career, and I'm concerned it may be giving him his final "no" in real time. I just really hope that's not the case. He deserves better.

If there was a higher correlation between draft picks positioning, or even first round success rates overall, then I'd buy that. But the draft is such a crap shoot that it doesn't actually work that way in reality. The Dodgers, Braves, Rays, etc. never pick high, but they're always good. The Rockies, Pirates, Royals, etc. always pick high, but they're always bad. So I disagree with your macro argument all together. And I'd argue this team should/could be up-and-coming if they'd make different (better?) decisions on their down-and-going players. If the Twins had made the playoffs last year they'd have less of a need for the #5 pick since they'd be a more talented team. Being less talented isn't an automatic way to become more talented. Being more talented is.

A little surprised not to see Lee headed to the futures game. He's not exactly lighting AA on fire, but would have guessed he'd be someone they targeted. Totally possible they had too many IFers from other squads so he didn't fit (I haven't checked the rosters to see who made it). I really enjoy that game, and look forward to seeing what Festa can do against some big names.

More than fair points. I don't really know what the right answer is. Probably isn't one. No matter what they do there's going to be corners of fandom, and the internet, that light everyone involved on fire. I just hope we get to see the real Buxton again someday.

The entire situation is frustrating. I don't know of anyone who isn't frustrated by at least part of it. We all know what Buxton can do in CF, and what his peak is as an overall player. Not being able to see it is incredibly frustrating for us. I can't imagine the frustration Buxton himself is going through. I just know everyone involved with the Twins wants Buxton to be Buxton as much, or more, than any of us here. I don't know what's wrong with his knee, and don't really need to. I know if he could play he would. The only thing that more info could clear up for me is if I need to start preparing myself to never see peak Buxton again. Is this a degenerative thing? Is it something that likely won't ever be truly fixed? Is this the end? My concern is no longer for 2023. It's for 2024 and beyond. But I wouldn't expect the team to come out and tell us Buxton's knee is toast, and this is what he is moving forward. Not just from the PR side of things, but for the human side of things. Buxton has to be struggling enough with all this that I don't see what good comes from telling fans he's toast. While our TD community is by and large very respectful, not all fans are. Why put anything extra on Buxton right now than you have to? I just hope they're open to shutting him down this year if that's what it'd take to get him right for 2024 instead of risking future seasons in the name of him limping through this one.

Keeping Pagan was a move I never would've made this offseason. No idea why they did it. Keeping Pagan as we get deeper into the season is a move I'd never make. No idea why they're going to do it. But Pagan was useful for the first 3 months of the season. He pitched well far more often than he pitched poorly. But he's done nothing but confirm that he can't be trusted in big spots. That's not a guy you can take into the second half of the year. You thought you could get more out of him. You did, in low leverage spots. It's time to start weeding out the guys you can't trust in the heat of a pennant race, or any possible playoff appearance. If you can't trust them in big spots, you need to get rid of them, and find someone you can trust. Pagan hasn't been bad overall this year, but he's established he won't be good when he's truly needed. It's time to move on. He's one of a handful of guys it's time to move on from. And it's undoubtedly late enough in the season to start moving on. Time for the FO to start making moves. Trades aren't super likely right now, but internal promotions are absolutely possible. Time to raise the ceiling on this season.

This is where I'm at. Have the established it? No. Are they close? Maybe. This deadline, and next offseason, will speak volumes as to where they're at. If I'm the Pohlads, I tell them they're not allowed to make any big trades this deadline. You've been here long enough, and it's time to sink or swim with your system. If you can't swim with your guys this year you aren't the ones to patch the holes in the offseason. It's time to open the valve, and see what comes out of the pipeline.

There's a difference between "prefer to make the playoffs than to miss the playoffs," and "happy just making the playoffs."

I think St Louis would be looking for significantly more ceiling in the return for the reigning MVP.

Welcome to Twins Daily! Coming out firing on the first post. Respect is the #1 thing around here, so we like to avoid statements like "Mathe (his name is Mahle, FYI) is a joke," so please find other ways to voice your displeasure in the future. You are not alone in your frustrations with Mahle, and that trade, so definitely feel free to voice those concerns, but please avoid name calling, and disrespect when doing so. What is your reasoning for thinking we'll never see Paddack? You're not the first person to suggest that, but I'm curious why you think that when he's already throwing bullpens, and is set to return to the team this season in a likely bullpen role in September. That extension is going to look awfully bad if he doesn't pitch at all the next 2 years we have him signed for.

Goldy is absolutely the type of player that this team is missing. And I'd be willing to give up quite a bit to get a year and a half of him. I'm not sure I really think the Cards are selling, though. At least not him or Arenado. They aren't really a franchise that does true rebuilds. They reload. And, even if they do sell those sorts of big bats, they need pitching. I don't see the Twins as a good fit as they don't really have young, controllable pitching that is good enough to bring back an MVP type bat. SWR, Jordy Blaze, Winder, etc. aren't the types of guys the Cards would want. So I don't really see a good trade match here. Even if I'd love Goldy on this team.

He's still fast. Not sure he's quite as fast, but he's definitely still fast.

66% of first round picks reach the majors. The Twins are at 4 of 9 right now, with a couple too new to really be expected have reached yet. I'd say they're 4 for 6 right now. The idea behind Sabato was that he was going to be quick moving as a "polished" college bat. So he's a miss. Cavaco is on the edge of his timeline as a high school pick, but since he looks like he has no chance of ever reaching the bigs he counts as a miss to me. So they're right at league average. Nothing great, but nothing terrible. I would also have Lewis over Lee at this point. By a pretty wide margin, too. The biggest thing this FO needs out of this group is a star or 2. Lewis looks like he's on his way, and we all hope for it with Lee. But I agree with others that taking the Rooker, Wallner, Sabato types is not my favorite strategy. Just such limited ways for them to impact the game. Those were later picks so it's not as bad, but I still prefer homerun swings on toolsy players at the top of the draft. I'll take a 33% hit rate if those hits are 5 tool stars over a 66% hit rate on MLB average regulars.

I mean this is just flat out wrong. Mike Trout wasn't very good his rookie season. Then he adjusted. Turned out alright. There is adapting that has to happen at every level. That's not a hot take or anything. You can go ask anyone involved in baseball and they'll tell you that. This isn't even worth anymore conversation if your stance is that rookies are expected to perform immediately and no adapting is needed.

Yeah, I'm fine with getting AK a day off today (or most of one at least). It's not just about today, though. I get that Max has a nice little 3 game stretch going, but he had 6 hits in his previous 15 games in June. He was 6 for 35 before this 3 game stretch. That's after a 7 hit May. He was 7 for 51 in May. The 3 game stretch is nice and all, but it doesn't change my opinion of Kepler. The 13 for 86 (.151) outweighs the 5 for 9 for me by quite a bit. That 5 for 9 skyrockets his BA since May 1 to a whopping .189 (with 7 XBH). For me it's about the entire situation, and the fact that this FO has shown that it simply isn't willing to move off their plan until August (this feels like Tyler Duffey all over again). I feel that's far too long. I believe the team overall is mismanaging it's assets. Kepler's glove isn't even what it used to be so I don't buy that reasoning much either. Kepler is just the most obvious face of my biggest complaint with the way decisions are made at 1 Twins Way. He, in my opinion, shouldn't even be on the team anymore. It's not just Kepler over AK, but Kepler over Larnach and Wallner as well.

What's the difference between the rookies being "meh" and Kepler being "meh?" Most of our arguments are that Kepler can't go up from "meh." "Meh" is who he is. He's 30, and there's no reasonable expectation of improvement. The rookies being "meh" before they've had a chance to adapt, and truly gain their footing, have at least a little expectation of improvement. Why hold onto the guy who's proven that "meh" is his peak simply to avoid using a rookie who "meh" could reasonably be their floor?

Eh, Kepler's recent 3 game success isn't enough to make me prefer him over AK in any situation. AK has looked a little off lately so I don't really mind him getting a day off to regroup, but I'm not going to be happy with Kepler in the lineup anytime soon. The Twins obsession with Kepler, and pinch hitting for their young guys instead of him, will never make sense to me, and I'll mock it until they finally move on from Kep.

There's a nice Jayson Stark article on The Athletic today talking about the Diamondbacks, Orioles, and Reds. He frames it around "New Rule Baseball," but all 3 teams are open about how their plan was in place well before the new rules. They were just trying to get more athletic. Those teams are fun to watch. And they're winning games right now. The lack of athleticism on the Twins is such a bummer. For that reason I'm not a fan of moving Castro (he's in the same age range as most of the guys we're hoping to become the new core). I think he's a wonderful utility player. Don't want him as an everyday starter, but his speed, and athleticism is a real weapon on the bench. As much as it kills me to say, it's probably time to move on from Polanco. And the rest of those guys I'm good moving, even though Solano is steady, and a refreshing change of pace in the batter's box.

Little known rule in the new CBA...vets aren't subject to poor platoon splits, even if they're poor hitters, but young, hopeful future core lefties literally can't bat against same handed pitchers. The Twins stood alone in the fight, but they wouldn't let that lockout end until they got that rule in there.

None of us are too young to remember the current Diamondbacks team. Or the current Reds team. Or the current Orioles team. Or the Rays teams from the last decade. Or the Cubs, Astros, and Braves all going young and winning championships. We all remember the Guardians going young and blowing past the Twins just last year. Miami is 10 games over .500 by playing a bunch of young, unproven guys. You don't have to go back to the 70s to remember what young teams can do. Comparing what fans are asking the Twins to do with the 2023 Oakland team is pretty absurd. Oakland ownership is actively trying to lose. They aren't trying to turn the team over to a new wave of players while spending all time high payroll amounts. Oakland being bad isn't an accident, or a plan gone wrong. It was the plan.

Lots of things I've read have suggest Max Clark may be the cheapest of the "big 5." If that's true, he feels like a great pick there. Get a chance to make up for passing on Carroll, while also saving money to take a big swing at 34, and other spots. Ledbetter doesn't really thrill me at 34. He wasn't great in SEC play, and doesn't feel like a high ceiling type guy. 2 picks in the top 34, with a ton of extra money to spend because of the lottery jump, equals a chance to take 2 massive swings this year. I don't want safe, or "high floor," guys. Go after the 2 highest ceiling players you can with these 2 picks. Ledbetter just doesn't feel like that to me. But he does feel like he fits the Twins model, so I wouldn't be surprised by that pick.

The question, to me, is what are you targeting? What's the goal at the deadline? I think the Twins being buyers at the deadline would be a disaster. They're not close enough. Lewis, Correa, Lee, Kirilloff around the IF sounds great, but Lee isn't exactly lighting AA on fire, and Lewis may be a better fit in CF. I don't think there's as much of a logjam on the infield as others seem to. Can the Twins get better at the deadline? Of course they can. But to what end, and at what cost? If they rip off a month where they win 65% of their games, and the offense scores 5+ runs in 90% of their games, let's buy. Does anyone expect that? I'm a believer in the idea that once you're in the playoffs anything can happen, but within reason. I think breaking "the streak" is important, and would be "happy" with that outcome this year. But I'm not willing to sacrifice a single piece of 2024 and beyond to do that. I hope they don't trade a single guy who has any shot at being on the 40-man this offseason. It's time to make the transition to the "young guys." If they don't think the young guys can do it they're admitting they've failed to build any sort of reliable prospect pipeline. They have a whole bunch of league average, or worse, vets on this team with no future on the club. If you can't replace those guys with league average, or worse, rookies on league minimum deals that allow you to supplement this offseason on the FA market you're doomed. Unless they're going on a massive tear for the next month, the deadline should be about transitioning to the new core. Don't blow up your chances of winning the division, and breaking "the streak," by going hog wild on selling (keep Gray, for example), but set yourself up with a chance to answer some questions about the future of this team the rest of the way. If they go in a spiral for the next month, then sell off everything, and start prepping your resume (hopefully). This deadline isn't the time to take chances on improving. Next offseason is. You just need to find out how many cheap players you have that are worthy of MLB playing time so you know how much you can splurge on the open market. The goal should be finding more guys to add to Ryan, Ober, Duran, Lewis, Julien, AK, and the rest of the league minimum guys so you can go big on spending this offseason. Don't trade away the league minimum guys for a hope and a prayer that your vets will suddenly be better than they are.