Trov

Not sure why you wish him ill will. It is not his fault he was left to the rule 5 a couple of years ago. Even if he does well, it has no effect on the Twins at this point. Now, if you are wishing this so you can defend the choice to leave him on rule 5, I personally do not think that choice needs defending at this point. Once in a great while a team will leave the wrong guy unprotected, but generally, they know what they are doing. In Baddoo's situation, he was young, not played above A ball, and had a lot of holes in game. In our organization he was ranked like 5th or 6th OF, and most likely would still be in minors for us, only making some games due to injuries from guys above. Unless you can go back and point to someone you would have left off the 40 man that year for Baddoo, there is no point in complaining he was left off it. It was him or someone else. I am sure every team wishes they could keep every player they wanted without worrying about 40 man rosters, years in organization, and service time. But those times are gone.

Very few teams want to slot a guy of his age into just DH roll. Twins even more since trading Cruz away have used DH as a way to give a normal starter a break in the field for the day while keeping bat in line up. I doubt Julien breaks camp to be a regular DH. Also, teams are unlikely to call up top prospects to ride bench. Unless they will be using Julien almost every day he will not break camp with Twins. As health continues to impact team he could break camp for that reason, but I find it very unlikely he breaks to DH. I know he is not a major defender, but I would bet if they wanted Julien to break camp, he would start at 2nd over Polanco and Polanco would DH more often.

The problem with this model is Buck generally does not get hurt from fielding, but from hitting and running bases. Yes, he has had a few injuries from fielding, but over the years most of his injuries come from hitting and running. Look at last year, the knee came from the slide at second, DH would not stop that, only sitting, but if he is sitting he is not helping. Then later in year he hurt his hip again. The year prior he missed most of his time with hip issue after running bases. He has missed time from being hit by pitches, foul balls of foot, slides, and just running bases. No amount of DH will help that.

The overall success of this team will come mainly down to the pen. However, timely hitting will be important too. Last year we did not have great timely hitting most of the year. Rocco leans on his pen a ton, mainly not allowing any starters, unless there is a huge lead, to go a full third time through order. This means he is normally asking minimum 3 but normally 4 innings from his pen every game. He also normally is only asking they do 1 inning at a time. So really looking at about 4 to 5 pitchers each game. If anyone struggles in a game it can blow up the whole game. Personally, not a fan of this plan, but they work the plan. That is why I believe it will come down to pen. It seems even if a guy is doing well, the second they allow 1 runner the third trip through the line up, they get the hook, unless the lead is huge. I am sure there is a little more to it, but sure seems to be the deciding factor.

I say build a team that can hit line drives and hit them hard. The rest will take care of themselves. There will be power hitters always, but after 2019, everyone had power. Records were falling all over the place. Then yes, the ball became dead, and players were expecting same results. I remember a few balls early in year last year I thought were crushed, to be caught on the track. I agree MLB needs to stop changing it up and go with 1 type every game every year. It is hard to judge a player year to year when one year the ball is a super ball flying out, then next year it is like hitting a pillow. Guys like Mitch Garver get the years of but what if they hit like 2019. Outside of 2019, Mitch has done little at the plate power wise. He has had health issues, but even if you stretch out the games he has never been close to what he did in 2019. He was not alone, and it messed with many fans. We were thinking we had a huge HR hitting team, and doubled down on it, only to having wall scrapers. Players had to adjust.

I would disagree the games at AA mean nothing. When in the past have you seen the Twins move a guy so quickly? The hype was big on Lee before the draft. Many said he could go number 1, and could not believe he fell all the way to us. I do not think anyone is trying to say he will be best in the game or HOF bound even, but he has shown that he clearly can handle himself very early on. Yes, he may be more advanced and not a lot left to learn, which is even more of a reason to move him faster. I am not reading from people saying he will be MVP or anything. He very well may be or may get overpowered when he makes MLB debut. I believe the hype for him though.

Dodgers will not give up any major talent for Farmer. I mean look what we gave up for him, nothing earth shattering. Just because they may feel they have more of a need, does not mean they will give away talent. They have someone that can fill in just as good as Farmer most likely. Now, if he starts failing and if Farmer puts up strong numbers, then maybe they would be willing to give up more for a the rental.

It should not be a huge surprise he could crack soon. If he would have signed out of HS, he could have been high draft pick if his dad was not a college coach, he would be talked about ready to break with a team this year. If he lights up AA like he did every level after draft last year, he will be taking some at bats at MLB level this year.

Dodgers are not going to overpay for a guy like Farmer who will just be a little upgrade over what they have, if an upgrade at all. Could they have interest in Kepler, but gain will not overpay. There will be other options for them to improve without overpaying.

Not saying you will be wrong, but I remember Brendan McKay, who was drafted around same time Ohtani came over and was expected to be a two way player. Rays have kept using him in minors that way, until 2021. They did not give him as much run as a two way guy, but really he did not hit as expected and been injured as well. He still could make it as a pitcher, but looks like hitting is behind him. However, that is part of the value of these guys, is if one does not develop, you hope the other does. Some guys will start as one, then after failing flip to the other. Normally it is failed hitter to pitcher, but some have gone from failed pitcher to hitter. Rick Ankiel is one of most famous to do it in recent years. I am sure there are more that switched in minors.

Why does every say Cavaco is a complete bust at age 22? I am not saying he will be anything amazing, and I am not expecting anything at this point, but he is only 22. He still has plenty of room to grow and develop. He actually does not turn 22 until mid-season. There is a guy on our MLB roster that most are very high on, but really until his age 22 season was barely on anyone's radar. He was not a first round pick, but a second round so not like he came out of no where either. People need to remember he fully missed a year of baseball in 2020, at age 19. His numbers last year were not good, but he made some decent improvements. He still has only played in 187 pro games, had 758 plate appearances. Yes, he needs to improve, but say he should be written off because he did not come out blazing is crazy. Not every High School player will light the world on fire. Look how long it took Gordon to settle in. Cavaco has dealt with injures over his career. Sabato I am not as hopeful, as he was a college bat, 2 years older than Cavaco, and has more games and plate appearances as well. I will agree with both this is an important season to see some improvement, but to write off either, but more importantly a 22 year old with barely a seasons worth of games since being drafted is a little early.

I will agree all three look to be ehhh at best, if Larnach can stay healthy he may produce, but the other two are not looking good so far. However, that does not mean they have not had some good picks in those drafts. Also, you need to always look at who else could have been drafted around them to really judge. Cavaco was a reach but there is no one after him that has lit it up in the majors as of yet. In 2018 we still had plenty of guys that have made majors, Larnach, Jeffers, Sands, Winder. In 2019 we have a few made majors and several used in trades for major league guys, or top prospects. Walner, Canentero, Steer, Varland, and a few others. It is still early to shut book on Cavaco, as he is only 22, and if he went to college would be his first year in full pro ball. He was drafted as a project and that has held true.

So when a player is drafted, the team generally says what they are drafting them as. If you go by that standard, most HS guys will be drafted as SS, even when team fully expects they move off SS in future. If they are out of college, you will see more identified as the position they think they can stick at. However, out of HS most will be SS as you do not put your best player overall at 2nd base. If a team drafted a HS player at 2nd they better not be a high pick.

My guess he was not highly touted at 16, but a low level signing, and he just developed very well. It happens. Maybe he becomes something great, or maybe he, like many pitching prospects, burns out quickly. Pitching prospects one of hardest to project and they will rise and fall very quickly at times.

If you go by what teams are paying for WAR, bWAR has Ohtani averaging over 9 WAR last 2 seasons, his overall worth is 81 mil, as teams have been paying about 9 million per WAR to FA. So with contracts going, $50 mil a year does not sound crazy. Mainly because he is still only 28, turns 29 mid-season, and if ever needed, he can just go to either hitter or pitcher full time if he drops off doing one.

Well at some point, if Mets wanted to spend more, and did not care if their team was losing money, they could out spend the Pohlads several times over. Pohlads worth in 2015, according to Forbes about 3.8 billion, that is using the value of the Twins. Steve Cohen is estimated to be worth 17.4. Even if you take out what the teams value is, Cohen could dip into his own worth and out spend the Twins any time he wanted to. So yes, at some point Pohlads could not spend as much as Cohen. Even if the Pohlads net worth jumped a bit in last 8 years, they still at best would be worth half of what Cohen is worth. Now, if you want to talk about just spending revenue from baseball, I would bet anything the Mets pull in much more money from baseball revenue than the Twins do. Just on TV money alone.

The rule does not hurt the Twins. The title suggest the rule is better for some teams versus others, like the Twins. The rule is the same across the board and affects everyone the same. Just because the Twins have been worse in those games does not mean it hurts them. I think the team plans to never play them, and will use all their good pitchers in tie games, hoping there will be no extra inning game, then they use a lessor pen guy to pitch.

In regards to pitch clock, report was the overall game time has been cut down by average 23 min in spring games. As pointed out, that is dead time of nothing happening other than having to listen to the broadcast team filling dead air, or if you are watching in person, the guys walking around doing nothing. I was so happy they put in the pitch clock, it will make games easier to watch. I loved watching games pitched by Silva and Buehrle. Buehrle never needed a pitch clock, he would get ball throw ball in like 5 seconds it seemed like. His games were always under 3 hours. Silva his games were fast mainly because he always threw strikes and guys put ball in play. I once watched a 78 pitch complete game by him, it was crazy.

I have talked a few times about his overall value. I agree he should not be graded as an OF, as he will not be playing much out there. Sure he could transition there should his pitching ever drop off, but as long as he is still pitching as a top pitcher you do not take him off there. I have long said though he is one I would be willing to sign to a long term deal as a pitcher, because he has the fall back of hitting should he ever losing the pitching level. Normally, I say stay away from deals beyond 4 years for a pitcher due to their completely falling off cliffs, but none of them could just stop pitching and be only a hitter like Ohtani could.

Most players drafted, or signed are either SS or CF, if they are not college players. Only pitchers or catchers out of HS are really put into a position. Some college guys start to get more put into a position of 1b or corner OF, but that is because they are bat first guys. Look at a guy like Cuddy, who was drafted out high school as a SS, or Sano who was signed as a SS. Neither were expected to stick there in majors. Cuddy moved to 3rd then was decent OF. Really, I would say no team likes to lock a guy into a position, because then they may get put behind someone and you decide to trade someone or let someone walk because and settle for a lessor player at a different position. Also, if a guy can play CF, they better be able to play either corner.

So everyone is just agreeing Burns is an ace, but if you look at his numbers last year, and specifically his second half numbers maybe, just maybe his luster is wearing off. I am not saying I would pass on him, but I think some may be overvaluing him a little. He would not be the first ace that burns out after age 27 season. I will agree Burns had a very good 2020, and a crazy good 2021. However, last year his walks were back up from his 2021 season, his k/9 were down to career low, to 10.8. His HR were up a ton, giving up 23 compared to the 7 the year before. His ERA was close to his FIP right around 3.00, much higher than the 2021 season. If you look at the second half it was worse than his first half. Maybe it was injury, maybe it was fatigue as he pitched more games and innings than any season prior. However, take a look at Tim Lincecum, both started at age 23, both had ace type numbers over their first 5 seasons. Burns 2021 was better than anything Lincecum did, but Lincecum overall numbers over those years where about the same, if not better. Burns had more K/9 and less walks per 9 We do need to keep in mind Burns did not start full time until 2020, and really 2021 where he tore it up. Then year 28 and it all fell apart for Lincecum. I am not saying Burns will fall apart, but other than a great 2021 and a very good 2020(9 starts only) are we really saying this guy is a top ace? I mean in 5 seasons he has 74 starts, and if you remove the 2021 season his numbers are not ace like. They are very good, but let me point you to Phil Hughes 2014 season. It was not quite Burns 2021, but not a ton off overall. Hughes threw 209 innings, had a FIP of 2.65 with a much lower K rate of only 8.0, but much better walk to k rate of 11.63. Hughes never came close to those numbers any other season. Again, not saying they are the same. My point is, we have 1.5 very good to great seasons out of 5. 1 good season where he faded down stretch. You want your ace to pick it up on second half in in playoffs. He did fine in his 1 playoff start in 2021, going 6 allowing 0 but walking 3 with 6 strikeouts. Maybe Burns is not 2021 guy, but closer to 2022 guy, who is good, but are you willing to give up the farm for? Really Pablo Lopez, was not much worse overall last year compared to Burns. Some did not want to give up Arraez straight up for Lopez, but is willing to give up everything for Burns.

To me the only debate would be Mauer versus Oliva. I would give Joe the slight nod as he did it at catcher, at least is prime years. Oliva had the better personality, Joe is so bland. They both played part of 15 seasons, bur really Oliva played 11 as 3 seasons were 10 games or less, and the 4th was 6. Joe played like 13.5, as he had 30 game season rookie year, and a 80 game season. Joe put up slightly better numbers. Oliva also played with other greats, Killer and Carew, Joe played with some greats too, but none that are HOF, still salty about Santana snub. Neither brought home a WS. I would not object to either above the other, but I would say Joe gets my vote. He also had to deal with new defense data late in his career with a ton of shifting.

Really the question would be does either side want to have that much of a gamble. I fully expect Lewis to come back, but we only saw a very SSS to judge on. Even if he is healthy, he could just not become what we hope or even close. Twins gamble is not only on his health but that he really is MLB guy. Lewis would be gambling he becomes a superstar and have bought out one of his top dollar years. Personally, I think the dollars suggested are way too low for Lewis. One salaries are going up. Two, he is going to be 24 this year, a 7 year deal takes him to 31, and only mega stars will get huge deals by then. Sure, if he is good to great, he could still get a 4 year deal at that point. I get it is only 1 year of FA being bought out, but the overall price is low I think. Maybe if you threw in a lot of incentive based bonuses along the way, like extra mil for All-star game, extra for MVP or other awards. Personally, I am a huge fan of those types of contracts. Then players do not feel like they are getting underpaid, but teams are not overpaying if production drops off. Kind of similar to Buck's contract.

This is clearly a depth for infield that can hit lefties move. He will likely play mostly just against lefties, depending on injuries. Depending on injuries and how season plays out, he could be a DFA after Lewis comes back. It surprised me when I saw it, but more I think about it there is some sense in it.

This FO and coaching staff has never been high on Gordon. I do not agree this is taking Gordon playing time though. He is mainly coming in to hit against lefties and play 1B. He will play 1B against lefties and be injury replacement should AK not be healthy. Gordon is basically an OF now with some 2nd or SS, but will not play much against lefties, if at all. Really, what this move does is takes Garlick out of the running for coming back to MLB roster absent injuries.