Trov

A few things. If you are saying the markets are similar, but you point out Padres are only team around, in all major sports, but MN has many major sports teams, so to compare the two seem a little odd. Now if you are saying because each only has 1 baseball team with similar market okay lets go from there. Now, we do not know what the actual books look like. For all we know Padres are losing money right now, or barely breaking even. We also do not know if the Twins are raking in money, or barely breaking even. Those decisions of what to spend is up to the owner. Neither should be expected to lose money, and how much they make that is also up to them. In addition, Padres did not start spending until 2018. Until then they were a well below average payroll. In 2018, they surprised people with big FA deal for Hosmer, then in 2019, Machado, and other players as years went on. They continued to make big splashes and move up to top of payrolls. Has it translated to wins, not really. They are trying to build winner through trades and big FA deals. They have yet to build a good winning team, despite brining in big time FA, and trading for top prospects. Could the Twins spend like Padres, yes. Will it mean wins, no. You need to spend smart, still make good trades, and draft well. Rumors are we are willing to spend big on Correa, and we had offered larger contracts on players that have signed else where. Just because you have money to spend does not mean you should spend it on bad players. Look at how Angels have continually spent bad on players over the years. Despite having the best player of this generation, they have only made playoffs 1 time with him. They kept spending on top FA only to not make playoffs for years.

Personally I try to shy away from HS arms high in draft. They are so hard to really project. Yes, some become some of the best, but some fully flop too, they are the biggest high risk high reward kind of guys. Not that college pitchers are locks either though, but they tend to be ale to fly through minors faster and contribute faster too.

Padres have been throwing crazy lengths and money to all kind of guys that snubbed them. First Turner turned them down for less money, then Judge took less money, so they went big. I am not sure if it shifts the market for CC or not. I mean the annual value is not super high, only just over 25 a year. No opt outs, or options, just full no trade. I do not think anyone was expecting that length for him.

I think some are reading the article as they should be traded, or even will be, but it is just stating they are the most tradeable at this time. Mainly, it is based on where they are at in organization, and possible trade value at this time. All are pretty high at this point. I agree I would not look to move really any of them, but if you can get the right player back no guy is off limits in my mind. Of course much depends on other moves. Should we sign CC for long term, well that locks up SS and or 3b for many years,(depending on details of contract) which makes Lee and Lewis more expendable, if you do not plan to move positions. That is exactly why Steer was easy to move. We already had many IF prospects that are boarder line SS with decent bats. Even if he goes on to be a good player for Reds, people will need to compare him not to what we got in trade, but to who we sign, if anyone at SS, Lewis, Lee, Martin, Miller, and Julien, all guys that are in similar roll. Also, Mirana and Arraez would need to be considered as they would play similar position as Steer. That is a lot of other players that could all have better time with Twins than Steer would have. I have no player in mind I would move any of those guys for, but if you can get a young controllable top end pitcher, which SWR could be for ourselves, you have to listen to offers. I would not like moving any of them right now for a 1 to 2 year guy. The only one I would be open at this time for a 1 to 2 year pitcher is Julien, as he may be a great hitter, but his defense is suspect from what I hear. We cannot have an infield of Miranda, (SS to be determined) Julien, Arraez or something like that.

I believe the draft lottery benefits the teams that are near the playoffs that got that chance to move up. There really is very little difference between number 10 and 15, but a big difference between 5 and 10, generally in MLB drafts. I also feel there is much less of a difference between 1 and 5 than 5 and 10. Unlike in NBA where there is normally a clear number 1 or 1 and 2, MLB rarely has a clear number 1. Also, number 1 generally have decent MLB careers, but rarely do they actually end up being the best in their draft. This is why I have long said teams do not tank for the number 1 pick, they tank for other reasons. One, is to have higher picks to have more money to spread around for later round picks to sign over slot value, have more international money to spend, sometimes get competitive balance picks to use or trade, and to suppress service time of their top prospects. I am happy for Twins moving up to the 5th pick, as that pick is much more likely to help at MLB level than the 13th, but you never know. However, if you look back, very rarely, is the number 1 pick the best player in a draft. Now, they still have a great chance to be a good player, the number 1 overall is rarely a complete bust as well.

Judge bet on himself and won. He turned down like 218 mil, had one of best seasons of anyone in recent years, now get 360 over 9. He is now one of top paid guys per year. I think the price for CC just went up. Do not think it will quite be at that average value, mainly because Judge is a power hitter, and they tend to age better than non power hitters. CC has power, but not a power hitter. I still do not expect CC to sign by end of meetings, Boras clients at least the top ones, normally hold out until closer later in off-season.

It depends on when the opt outs are and how much he has left on the deal. This past deal we all knew he was going to opt out barring injury. But there are many players recently that have opted in because chances were they would not get the same level on FA. Of course that means we are overpaying, but not that he has no value. If there are multiple opt outs at 10 years, odds are it will be after 3 or 4 and after 6 or 7, and maybe after like 9. I doubt it will be like this past deal that is after each year, no team would agree to 10 year opt out after each season.

I would like to see the data on that, not saying it is not there, but find it may not be super accurate. One thing, does that data take into account the few hits he gets because of the shift, or just the hits he maybe would not have got due to the shift? Also, is it based on assuming range led to the ground ball being stopped because of the depth of the 2nd baseman, or position of SS on right side of base? Meaning, did the 2nd baseman have to move left or right to stop the ball and only because of depth they managed to cut it off? Is this also based on if the 2nd baseman was in a standard position for RH hitter, or old traditional position for LH hitter? Even without playing deeper into the RF, many 2nd basemen would still play much closer to 1st. Again, I am not saying the data is wrong, but I would love to see it to see if it is flawed. I personally did not watch every at bat over the past year for Max or past years. However, I do not recall seeing too many balls that were smoked to a hole between 1st and 2nd where the 2nd baseman makes a great ranging play to throw out Max. I would normally see him hit many weak ground balls that would have been cut off at normal depth. I also recall seeing a few balls he hit where a SS would have normally been that he got hits on, so that should count against the count of hits lost because of shift, because he got some hits because of shift too. That being said, I am more than happy to keep Max this year as I doubt he will have much trade value, and you do not just trade a guy because he is not playing to the level you hope, because normally what you get back is not much value either.

I do not know if is plus ten because of Turner. Turner took more years at less per year than many expected. Will Correa want more overall money, or more per year? I agree 10 is most likely the number, and maybe some teams will go longer, but if it goes longer, my guess their per year number will be less. Remember Soto turned down a 14 year deal that would have set the all time overall value, but he turned it down saying his per year is not that of the other top paid guys. None of know what CC is thinking, and the next few days to weeks will be a ton of rumors and speculation.

Only way Rodon gets 6 years is if a desperate team thinks he is their savor that will carry them, or a team like Phillies who think they are just 1 pitcher away from a ship and will eat the last 3 to 4 years and have a ton of old talent in next 3 years and will deal with huge overpaid guys for many years, like Nationals dealt with to win a Ship 1 year.

Kepler has low trade value. He is a defensive minded RF who does not hit at an elite level. If a team overvalues him, and see the numbers underlying and think he has just had bad luck his whole career, and now with the no shifts he will becomes something amazing, I would trade him in a heart beat. First, as the writer points out, his batted ball numbers to output have never lined up. Every year people will write about how he will break out because of those things. However, they forget there has to be outliers to the norm, that is just a fact. Kepler is an outlier, he is not just the most unlucky hitter ever. In terms of the shift, I do not think it will make much of a difference to Kepler, at least not enough to go to a .300 hitter or anything. Sure, he will not ground out in short right, but unless that 2nd baseman had to range one way or the other, no matter how deep the player is they will stop the ground ball right at them. There is nothing preventing the 2nd basemand from playing deep in the hole, and the SS playing just one inch to the left of the base, still leaving huge holes to left side of infield, and defending the middle, having the 2nd baseman closer to first. This will leave a hole about 4 to 5 feet to right of 2nd base that he will have to place the ball. The only hits he will get without the shift are the liners or hard ground balls where the 2nd baseman had to range far from their short right position.

I agree, it is very player friendly, which is why it shows they are serious about bringing him back. If he walks away it is not because we did not offer him a player friendly deal, unless the money is low. No rumors on what the money offers have been. Borras loves to hold out and watch the market start to develop, so he can use the lack of supply to increase the bidding. Turner just took a deal, taking a top SS of the market. Sure it decreases teams bidding on Correa, but now the teams left know there is one less pivot open.

Just saw Turner signed 11 year 300 mil. Wonder how that will affect Correa. Turner took more years less per year, but Correa is considered better. No details yet on if any opt outs.

On thing to note about Kirby, is that was back when no top stars left, because the league had the wink wink we will not outbid you for your star and keep the salaries low. That is why there was the 95 strike because teams were not offering much to big name FA. Sure some would jump ship around then, Bonds, who went to his home town, or guys at ends of careers when other teams were done with them. This is a top guy in a market where guys keep moving.

Dougie from KSTP and Dougie with the Scoop, said on news last night, that rumors are Twins plan to meet with Correa and have been willing to offer 10 year deal, full no trade, multiple opt outs. No rumor as to money, and if they are offering most overall, but it sure shows how much they are willing to offer. If we do not sign him, if the rumor is true, they sure tried. View full rumor

I fully agree. Everyone was all upset about Baddoo because he went off right away. Then he hit huge slump, to bounce back a bit. Then last year he was terrible, and was unplayable for a team that was basically out of the race in April. People forget to protect players from the rule 5 draft you need to release other players off the 40 man roster. Very few people could say who they would have cut to protect Baddoo, they just were mad. I do not wish him any bad outcomes, but he was ranked where he was on prospect list for a reason.

I would like to point out that the June starts were after a stint with COVID, so one should expect some issues being he was getting back into game shape. Also, he had good starts against Boston his first start against them, Texas, Giants, and Brewers, who all scored more runs on the season that Padres. It is not like he only shut down poor scoring line ups. A lot of pitchers had bad starts against some of those teams. All pitchers have bad starts. To cherry pick his blow up starts against some of the best teams in baseball, but to not point out that he still had good starts against other teams that had scored more runs than some, but say it was just shutting down bad offenses is not telling a true story.

Trade him or not, either is a risk. He still has possible upside, but his downside is just as strong. If as a team you feel more value from the trade, do it, but if offers are not there, why just give him away now, you can do that anytime.

Based on his FB someone will take him most likely if they can stash him in pen for year. Will they regret it, maybe, but for next year I doubt it. He has heat, but is not dominate so far. Heat at MLB will not get you far if you do not have location or movement, you will just get hit hard.

First, this is why I say corner OF guys have little value in trade or FA markets, unless they are super elite hitters. People talk about trading Kepler, but her offers little value, because many teams can fill the same position easy. Second, I disagree that Larnach defense is more limited, in the past that was true, but last year, when healthy he was actually a good defender overall. Three, I was not surprised with Gordon, he always has performed well after being at a league for a year. I think as always, performance and injuries will fix the conundrum through the season.

The Twins are not alone in trying to get top end pitching talent. Many teams have tried time and again. Some go the route the Twins do and get lottery ticket guys that pay off for the year, others go big on FA and hit, but that is rare as well. I am not excusing the Twins of lack of pitching talent, but it is not like every team is marching out great talents every year. Honestly, the way the team manages the starters, I do not know what they would do if they had a real shut down ace anyways. Hopefully, one day we can find out though. However, I do wish people would stop acting like every pitcher out there we do not sign or trade for is so amazing. Remember all year people called for us trading for Montes. How did that work out for Yankees? He put up some of the worst numbers of his career. People were upset we traded away Berrios and not signed him to long term deal. How did that end up for Toronto? A negative WAR and one of worst seasons of his career. Maybe he bounces back but he would have been one of worst in our rotation. Many other FA did not live up to expectations over the years too. My point is, a lot of things need to work together to have a top pitcher, and they do not come around all the time.

I am more concerned about the complete lack of controlling the running game. Maybe that is more on the pitchers, but fact is teams were running like crazy on him all year when he was catching. Unless he can hit a ton, never throwing a runner out will pile up after awhile.

I believe the best chance for ROY is Lewis. He is the only one that if healthy has a clear spot to him, either SS or 3B. If SS is filled, then he will slid in 3b for the defense. He has the potential bat and defense to get ROY. Wallner will still be far down the list of OF. Same with the starters. Julien is too far down the list too. At this point Lewis is only one that I can see a clear path of playing without trades or injuries. His ACL surgery was early enough in year he should be ready to go by camp, unless he has a set back.

I do not know the specifics of the contracts offered, but reports are they have extended various offers ranging 8 to 10 years. Boras does not have his clients sign quickly too often and will wait to talk to all teams around the winter meetings is my guess. Even if CC would be willing to accept any of the offers made already, Boras will tell him to hold off and try to get more by using other teams to try and increase. He tries to do this all time. Even when there is only 1 team really willing to pay, like with JD Martinez years ago. Boston made offer, and no other team really was willing to be close, but Boras kept saying other teams had interest, to try and get Boston to bid against themselfs.