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Trov

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Everything posted by Trov

  1. Trov
    I would not give Gurriel too much. If we could get him on a low cost to be right handed at bat and maybe bring back some value I am okay with it, but I would not pay him to be full time 1B.
  2. Trov
    The FO has made it clear, if they cannot sign a player they will trade them to get some value out of them. Berrios was in the same situation. Fans may prefer us to just pony up more cash, but I for one is a fan of the moves.
  3. Trov
    First, if the team is targeting "distressed assets" as you put them, that is an issue. However, as many have pointed out, outside of Paddock and Mahle I do not think that is really an issue. You left out Big Mike who they signed to 2 year deal, knowing the first year was a rehab year, that is a much better example. If the Twins are using the fact that they can sign certain players that maybe they would not normally be in on because their is risk of injury then so be it. Yes, we signed CC because other teams were not willing to take risk of 13 or 12 year deals, as they had offered, but that just opened the door. Is he "distressed asset" because he has a potential red flag for injury then okay, but he has not shown any issue of that injury in his career. To me, the signing of Big Mike, and extension of Paddock is really the only instances where they spent bigger money on a player that may not give much value due to injury risk. The traded players are players that had history known or unknown but any guy, particular pitcher, could come up with injury. Some people think a pitcher not having TJ is a red flag because most get it at one point in career now.
  4. Trov
    Please name the 1 starter they could have had for 19 million that would have put them over the top? Also, how would Rodgers, who had a terrible season after May. He got worse as the season went on, but okay having a guy with negative WAR would have helped us. According to baseball reference, Pagan had -0.4 WAR, and Rogers had -0.7 WAR. Logic would suggest Rogers would not have made the difference. I also cannot think of a single starter we could have signed for 1 year 19 million that would have made a difference. If you can please let me know.
  5. Trov
    I think as it pertains to the Splinker, is much like a hanging offspeed, when he missed with it, he could get hit hard. Also, half of his HR is 3, and although he only threw the pitch at 16% he still threw it 163 times. Being it averaged 96 MPH, compared to 4 seam at 100, or curve at 87. He still got a whiff rate of 34% on it compared to only 26 on 4 seam. My guess it generally would come down to location, where it would stay much more thigh high. It would allow hitters to catch up to it, and was more in the zone compared to others. Working on getting off the zone more, or lower in zone will help I would say. It is not like it is a bad pitch, but maybe not as good as we have been told. His curve was much more effective. In terms of the more multi innings, I agree the logic seems to defy the numbers, that he did better with less multi inning games. However, where maybe the writer should have included, was that if you look at his game logs. From what I can see only 1 time did pitching in 2 innings actually have a negative result for him. He allowed runs in 10 games all season. Only 1 game was in the second inning of pitching, and the other 9 were in 1 inning outings. I do recall a few times he may have pitched into a second inning and was pulled after allowing runners, that did not score, but overall he was fine with multi inning outings. The only game was also April 15th.
  6. Trov
    Lewis injury was an overall fluke. Many guys make the transition to OF from infield. To argue that because someone who has not played the OF will get injured, means that everyone will get injured playing OF, because at some point it is their first time playing it. I could go over several guys that transitioned to OF later in career, or even early in career after playing infield whole time growing up, that never got injured playing OF.
  7. Trov
    Personally, I believe playing corner OF is one of the easier defensive positions to play. The hardest thing is judging where the ball will be and taking good routes. SS have to practice good routes on pop ups all the time, so it is not like he will have not had some level of practice on that. I will say that a great defender in the OF can help a ton, robbing doubles and what not, but it is much easier to transition to OF from infield than other way. Gordon was pointed out as recent, but we have had many others on our team, Cuddyer was drafted as SS, moved to 3b at MLB and eventually went to right. Our now Joey Gallo I believe was a 3b in college and coming though minors, to become a top OF defender. Gordon for KC similar path, 3b on defense coming up to transition to LF and was amazing there. I am not saying Farmer will be top notch, but it is not uncommon to make the switch, even late in career.
  8. Trov
    We assume it is Gallo over Kepler, as we assume he will get moved, but it should be Gallo over other 4th OF options. Not saying Gallo is 4th OF, but he will start any of the 3 positions, pushing someone out or down the list. If he can regain his Texas form, he will be a boon to our offense, but at least he can put up big defense either way. Correa is a push because he is who we had last year. Is Farmer better than Urshela that is the only other real addition we have had. Maybe the one we should talk about is the change in medical staff, if they can keep our team on the field and healthy that will make a huge difference.
  9. Trov
    I give little weight to scouting of these kids at 16 and 17 years old. Even ore so on the rankings. Many time the top ranked prospect does not pan out, and the much further down does better over a career. Not saying there is no weight to be given, but lets wait and see what becomes in 3 plus years, as they are not even likely to come state side for minor league ball for 2 to 3 years.
  10. Trov
    I remember Gioleto being a highly touted HS pitcher but coming off TJ that year, so he fell based on that. Took some time but he finally had some good years. These show how much of a crap shoot drafts can be.
  11. Trov
    I do not expect any of them to do enough to crack our 40 man out the gates, barring injuries to others, but will love to see how Lee does at the plate. I have a feeling he makes a debut this year after some injuries to infielders.
  12. Trov
    The one thing to remember about the trade value machine you like to use is that it is subjective to the person putting in the data, but does not look at how the team values the player. For example, the trade value has Rodriguez at 14.2, and Miranda at 26.4. Personally, I think long term Rodriguez will be a much better player than Miranda, but Miranda is MLB level and Rodriguez is A ball right now. If a team has high expectations of Rodriguez they will not care about the value in the this machine. When it comes to prospects, it is hard to determine how much value a team puts on them. I know you can look at national rankings, but that does not mean a whole lot if a team themselves values them base on their opinions.
  13. Trov
    As many said, if he signs on minor league deal and we see if he can be healthy. I would hate to see a line up with him and Gallo in the line up. Throw in Walner and we would have like 12 K's from them alone some games.
  14. Trov
    Eventually we will get to full robo umps. I think it will start with the challenge system, mainly to ease the change in for both players and fans. The younger fans want the right calls, it is the older fans, generally not all, that will say we need to keep the human error as part of the game. They will point to 94% percent accurate, but ignore that they get 2 inches on the edge of the zone that can go either way as accurate. Meaning, they could have much less than 94% but the grading is only based on way off calls. I read an article years ago, which I cannot find now, but it showed that umps in clear calls, meaning not close to edge of zone, they are almost always right. But when it was on the edge of the zone, within those 2 inches, they were 50/50 according to the data the article used. Further, it showed that if count was 3-0 the strike was called at much higher rate if it was in that 50/50 zone. Hunter use to say automatic call when he was commentating. The reverse was true, if 0-2, the ump would more often than not call it a ball if in that 50/50 zone. Then it looked at that an ump was less likely to call a repeated strike in the same area on back to back pitches, if in the 50/50 zone. Pitchers are trained to pitch to the edges of the zone, but calls on balls or strikes are basically a coin flip when they do. I would love to see the full robo ump sooner than later, but I expect the challenge system first, then the full system a few years after that.
  15. Trov
    My wife is a Pirates fan, so I follow them as kind of a secondary team, and their ownership and FO is worse than what we have been dealing with in the past. That being said, I know Cutch never wanted to leave Pirates, even if they would have been losing I believe he would have stayed with them. I am not surprised he returned, knowing he will get regular playing time, and will get to return to his team. Good for him, not that he needed a few more million.
  16. Trov
    I dislike when teams try to change what a player does well, in hopes of getting something a little better, only to then have worse affects. We did this with Buck for years. Kept telling him different ways to do things, to fix problems he really did not have at the time, but expected to have. Martin, the issue is his lack of power, but if he can hit line drives, I am okay if he is not a big power guy. Works for some guys. Twins just assumed it would be a problem down the road so lets try to change what he has done his whole life and what got him drafted 5th overall. Hard to change what you have done your whole life.
  17. Trov
    He better put up the highest career WAR as a SS for Twins, or we made a bad signing.
  18. Trov
    It is hard to speculate on what Miami is doing, are they just shopping pitching knowing they have some and would just want to trade away 1 and hope the return makes them possible contender, or they doing Reds/Athletic style tear down fire sale? Miami has been known to do that in past. If they are doing full tear down, only prospects and young controlled guys will get any deal done. If they are floating names for hopefully faster rebuild or compete this year, then MLB ready guys like Arraez could be used. The only issue I have, is unless you are 100% convinced they will be better than our top 2 or 3 guys, what is the point? I mean why trade off assets to just clog up our pitching to not increase the floor of that pitching? I am not opposed to a deal for better pitching, but I am not seeing any of them clearly being better. The one that does interest me the most is Luzardo. I find it interesting how crazy the home road splits are for Luzardo and Cabrera. Both did much better away than home. I wonder what led to that.
  19. Trov
    First, Marlins can have Garlick for free, as he has to pass waivers and they could put in a claim, so if they do not do that, why would they trade for him? Second, why would they give up a good trade asset for Kepler, unless they plan to flip Kepler. People keep throwing Kepler name out there for pitching to teams that are most likely rebuilding or looking to load up on prospects, like Marlins would be doing if they are trading away pitching right now. Arraez they may have interest in as he is still young and controllable and could help in next few years, but Kepler is of no help to them in what they would be looking for. Now, if they think they are on the cusp of winning, then maybe they would be willing to take on someone like Kepler, but my guess they do not think they are there. Gordon may have value to them, as he is also young and controllable. Can people stop floating Kepler to every team thinking everyone will want him for some of their pitching?
  20. Trov
    "With Jose Miranda entrenched at third base, it’s possible Lewis becomes a right-handed outfield option (but that’s where he got hurt!), or he’s traded to help balance the roster." Is Miranda entrenched at third base? I mean he was decent hitting, but he was a rookie, and some times they fizzle. He also was not a good defender overall. Maybe he does better at 3rd this year, but if Lewis can defend 3rd much better and hit better, why would we move him to OF? Put Miranda as DH, or trade him if need be. In terms of Lee, he can play 2nd as well, or move to OF most likely. His bat appears so elite I would not look to trade him. If you can hit elite we can find a spot.
  21. Trov
    I think all the fans that attacked the FO for not putting up the money to sign CC when he agree to SF or Mets, should at least admit a little bit the FO had a clue on what they were doing. I say this because we signed him for close to but actually less than what we first offered. We knew about the ankle and were not willing to take on any more risk than 10 years. Both SF and Mets balked at the risk. Did the FO know this was going to happen, most likely not, but they also knew what they would be willing to do. They kept in contact and in the end were willing to offer more guaranteed money than any other team. The contract is actually pretty friendly for the Twins. If CC regresses after year 4 to 6, then can make sure he does not get the PA buy benching him, then cut loose the last 4 years. If CC is playing at elite level still, then we keep brining him back for up to 4 years. The fact each year is an option year is amazing for the Twins. I could not have thought of a better offer.
  22. Trov
    I was going to post about the difference the dWAR according to baseball reference. I do not know the exact metric on how they go about it, but the have that big of a difference over a career, and Smith was never negative. I get the authors point that not many can stick to a position like CF for full career, and compared CB in football. However, the same can be said for SS, as very few stay at it, or are considered good on defense at it late in career. One of the next closest is Omar Vizquel who had a career 29.5 dWAR. I think the point that not many can do it, should show that the few that do it, are HOF compared to others. Baseball HOF has always compared across eras, but even compared to his counter parts, Hunter was never considered HOF bound. He put up some great defense, and I have not done the research on all CF, but Andruw Jones has dWAR of 24.4. Mike Cameron had career dWAR of 10.3, also played to age 38. Maybe Hunter was not as great of a defender as we thought. He made amazing catches, which always look great, but compared to 2 CF of his era he overall defense was not as good as either.
  23. Trov
    With limiting the risk really to 6 years, this is a good deal in my opinion. He has been playing with this issue for years, and still putting up the numbers he has. If he has big regression down the road you are only on the hook for a couple of years. This was the exact kind of deal I wanted them to try to get without all the stuff going on. It protects them later into the deal if he has regressed, for any reason health or just production, but will also keep him locked in if he is still producing at a high enough level.
  24. Trov
    Once the contract is officially signed, reports are we are much closer physical wise than other teams were, there will be domino of trades I am thinking. We will clear up our OF, someone will get dealt I think, and someone on right side of IF will get moved I think as well.
  25. Trov
    Report I read, Mets offer was to cut their 12 year in half to 6, but the value in half as well, to 157. Then vesting options for the remaining 6 years and value. So in the end, assuming we do not balk too, we offered the most money to CC, and less than what our original offer was. I am will still believe it when pen is to paper, but rumors are the Twins have already looked at the medicals that have been holding up the other deals. Also, taking risk on 6 years is much better than 12 or 13 years. Now I bet we wee a bunch of other moves, possibly prospects getting moved, because SS or 3B, will be locked for 6 years min. That means Lewis, Lee, and Martin will have to fill other spots.
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