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Trov

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Everything posted by Trov

  1. Trov
    The question is how do you determine MVP. Most will look to say, if we took player x off the team where would they be. The Angels would be terrible either way, as they were terrible this year after their hot start. Yankees most likely would have still competed for title even without Judge. Personally, I would take Ohtani on the team over Judge, but Judge will win the MVP based on what he has done and where his team is. Also, in the second half, if Judge was not playing the Yankees may have played themselves out of the playoffs, despite having a huge lead at one point. In the second half Judge was the only hitter doing much for Yankees on regular basis. Ohtani is crazy good, and his next contract will be crazy to value. I mean he can be a top of rotation arm, which is worth nearly 30 mil a year generally, but then you add in fact he will also hit at near elite level. If he was just the DH he would still look to pull in close to 20 mil a year I bet. His bat would earn him more if he played defense, which I bet he could but team keeps him at DH to protect arm and less possible injuries. Does that mean he will earn close to 50 mil a year? It will be fun to hear the numbers for him. I sure wish the Twins could be in on that, but no way they will.
  2. Trov
    Lee, Martin, Julien, and Lewis will all be fighting for at-bats at MLB level in next year or two. Similar to when we thought we had a vast amount of corner OF, DH, 1b guys a couple years ago. One reason we were able to trade Steer, who would have been right in that same mix with the 4 mentioned above. Similar to our glut of corner OF guys it will shake out, but hopefully not because of injuries. You can throw Gordon into the mix too after this season he had. I have high hopes for Lee and Lewis as stars, with Martin as a good on-base guy that can steal. Julien may be able to hit, but his limited defense may be his shortfall if he does not overhit.
  3. Trov
    Kepler will never go down as a great player, but he will be a good player. He gave us several okay years. His defense gets overlooked because his offense has never come around to what we hoped he would. I expect he will be around next year, unless a team really blows us away with a trade. We have a lot of comp at corner OF, but his defense has high value. Some think the new anti shift rule will help him, it will not in my opinion, but maybe.
  4. Trov
    The Twins will go as far as Buxton can carry them, which is not a good thing. I like Buck, but to bet your team success on a guy that has never NEVER played a full season. The closest was way back in 2017 he did 140, you could argue that was full season only missing 22 games. Outside of that season he has yet to play more than 92 games, and even in the 60 game 2020 season he played 39. He averages half the season sitting on the IL, or in this case rest instead of IL until he hit the IL. He is great when he can play, and the contract is based on this issue, but we need to have a backup plan for when he gets hurt. When he is out it hurts our defense and our lineup as we do not have a clear backup. Hopefully we can figure that out this offseason.
  5. Trov
    I remember when he came up he would be on top of the plate and pitcher just assumed he wanted pitches outside, but he really wanted them in and he would paint the 3rd base line over and over. Eventually he got figured out and he never adjusted. All the power to the man for still playing. He is treating independent ball like it is town ball.
  6. Trov
    Has the pipeline created a dominate starting rotation and bullpen to be one of best in league, no it has not, and if that is what you want as success, then we did fail. We were middle of the road overall staff, and the hope and plan was most likely to get guys in the minors to step up by mid season and push out the Bundy's and Archers. However, so many long injuries tested our depth, and failing of a few. Personally, I think we showed we do have some type of pipeline. No they are not top starting pitchers as of yet, but they have depth of guys that should be able to be competitive in starts, and hopefully have depth when injuries do hit. Will we hit on every pitcher no, no team does. But finding guys like Varland late in drafts and developing is something to be praised.
  7. Trov
    The biggest frustration for me is the lack of situational hitting. I believe this is very much based on the coaching. I am overall someone that embraces the use of analytics, but I do feel you can go overboard and forget that those numbers included players doing situational hitting. Meaning, when a runner is on 3rd and less than 2 outs you score as often as you do because you put the ball in play, or when a runner is on 2nd with no outs you score as often as you do because you can advance the runner. Yes, the other team is trying to prevent this, and I am not advocating for always bunting guys over, but way too often we would fail to get runners to 3rd and fail to get runners home when we could manufacture a run, always playing for the multi-run inning. When you never play to try and just get 1 run in, when you need to get just 1 run in you will not normally do it.
  8. Trov
    Without all three we would be fighting for near last place and not even had been talking about trying to win division. Ryan has been good, but not great, but hopefully he can build off of this season improve and be a solid starter for next few years. Duran looks like he should be a beast for years to come. Miranda leading our team in RBI at 64 is just terrible. I know RBI is not a big stat anymore, but you still need to drive runs in and when our leader is at 64 when I am pretty sure Jose Ramirez had 64 by early July. I believe Miranda will hit at this level and hopefully for years to come with Twins. I am not sold on him being a superstar though but a solid hitter for us.
  9. Trov
    I never have felt in baseball that a lottery would fix tanking. However, since it is in affect hopefully we can jump up. The fact is many times the number 1 pick is not better than the number 5 pick, but normally the top 1 to 5 are generally better than those after, but not always.
  10. Trov
    The first was a 1-2 pitch he was just trying to make sure he put ball in play, because that is only way to get a hit is to put in play. It was a weak hit but not pure luck or anything. The next 2 hits were not "highlights" but were solid line drives. The point of hitting is to put ball in play and get a hit right? The point is he can put ball in play with solid line drives. He is not going to hit 40 plus HR or anything but he is expected to hit and will have some power. Add in fact he switch hits, that is a huge plus too.
  11. Trov
    Depending on how spring training shakes out, other signings/trades, we could see Lee break with the Twins, who knows. Unless they feel he needs to work more on defense, it sure seems like they feel his bat will play at any level right now. A lot will depend on if Correa stays, or we bring in a different SS, and how Lewis is. Since Lee will not need a 40 man spot until he is ready I would not expect him to break with Twins, but they have shown they are not afraid to bring in the best player no matter the service time, with this FO. Under Terry Ryan, I would say Lee is like 3 years from making the majors because that is when he needs to be added to 40 man roster and getting service time. Then he would get called up like in June.
  12. Trov
    I would not say our lineup is set at all, either pitching or hitting. They will have money to spend on short term contracts if they want to. The Twins will not look for long term deals, most likely nothing longer than 4 years for anyone in FA. If someone like Contreres, or one of many 1B corner OF or SS will sign a larger per year 3 to 4 year deal, than a longer deal I think they may make a surprising splash. We will have depth, and can trade from that if needed when signing some players but I would love to see a large short term deal. Do not tie yourself to aging FA down the road when other players will need to be paid. I think it may be time to move on from both Polonco and Kepler, DFA or trade for a pen arm if possible, but we have plenty of younger guys that can fill those rolls, if we cannot go out and sign a corner OF guy to replace Kepler, we still should have plenty of depth.
  13. Trov
    They need to win 3 of 5 to stay in it. That will not put them in control but at least make the remaining 2 weeks important. If we win 4 of 5 we will be right back into the mix, and if some how we sweep everyone will be talking about who we will be playing in postseason, despite still being up only 1 on Cleveland and who knows with Chicago. Either way if we lose the series no matter by how much we need to just concede I would say.
  14. Trov
    That is correct, after the 2 disengagements with a runner on, the 3rd must result in a runner being out else, it is a balk. I have not read much on the impact in the minors, but they have been dealing with the rule for a couple years now, so not new. I could see some strategy being used with the pitch clock and the throw overs. Wait until the last second and throw over hoping to get a guy leaning, or after 2 throws over, doing more pitch outs expecting runner to take off on first movement, assuming it will not be a throw over.
  15. Trov
    I hope Jordan Balazovic can build off this late season surge for next year and he has a fully healthy offseason. I still have hopes for him and he has done well the last few games, although limited innings and still high walk rate, but it is a good step. I am not counting on him going forward but hope he can be a nice surprise.
  16. Trov
    The pitch clock is for the fans in my opinion. Speed up the game and have more action will be entertaining. Years ago they tried to punish hitter for stepping out of box, that last for like 1 week. Now if the hitter steps out, and does not get back in quickly enough he gets a strike. The rule actually ended game in the minors once. I know many players will moan about it but will adjust. The base sizes has had minimal impact on stolen bases, but I doubt it will make huge difference. In terms of the shift I was against the rule, but they did not make it to extreme as infielders will still have plenty of chances to move about the infield. You will still see the SS behind the mound right next to 2nd base against most lefties, and the 3rd baseman will be shifted much more up the middle. You just will not see the 2nd baseman sitting in short right. In regards to the robo umps commentors brough up. I am 100 percent for it. It will happen once the league feels they have a good enough tech. They have been testing it, and there have been a few pitches people were freaking out about because it did not look close to a strike because of how crossed zone, but was called strike. This again, the more it is used in minors, like the pitch clock, will make it easier for players to accept. I am not for "human error" being part of the game. If we were fine with human error why even grade ups on calls then or have replay, just get rid of all of it and let the human error make the calls, and when you have an ump call a ball that is 3 feet fair foul, or a guy that is out by a foot be called safe then people should not complain and chalk it up to human error.
  17. Trov
    So who on our team were you expecting to contribute? You say most of the injuries are to people we were not expecting much from. Well, Buck has been basically injured all year, playing on a bad knee limiting him to 57 games in CF, yes an additional 34 at DH, but he is, when healthy best defender in CF. Pretty sure we had high hopes for him contributing. How about Polonco? He was our MVP last year, and he has been hurt on the IL a couple of times playing about 100 games, but clearly some of them he was hurt, not sure why we would not be counting him. Oh how about Royce Lewis, many expected he would do something this year at some point. How about Sano, he missed the full year. I am pretty sure we were expecting high offense from either Larnach or AK, both missing most of the year, and AK was hurt even in the games he mainly did play. Jeffers was expected to be starter, yes his offense was down even before hurt, but he was heating up. So two of our starting OF missed large amounts of games, and a backup. Our expected starting 1b missed full year basically, and his back up. Our 2nd baseman has missed games as well. I guess you were just expecting CC to carry us all year and no of the other starters were expected to much. Pitching, we did have large amounts of health there, but did lose two of our starters miss most of the season in Paddock and Ober. Also, Winder after doing well then missed large amounts. I will agree they were not expected to be much, and the pen did blow many games, but had our offense that was carried by a rookie and a guy that was our super utility guy that many wanted to cut coming into the year and a light hitting bat master. But the main guys that would be expected to hit in the middle of line up all missed plenty of games.
  18. Trov
    I get no hitters go into record books and sounds all cool, despite many of the no hitters are by pitchers people have barely heard of outside their own organization and really mean nothing long term for a pitcher. He was over 100 pitches, which is not something he does a ton of. Based on the rate of pitches per inning if he was going to complete the game he would have had to throw 136 to 140, my guess he has not done that his whole life. Also, because he is trying to chase history he most likely would have put more into those pitches, making bases empty situation higher stress pitches. Maybe he is fine after it, but history has shown that guys who have done exactly that, have had long term issues. I point to Johan Santana specifically. He threw 134 pitches, and he was one that would regularly throw over 100, but not long after that start he was injured, and career was basically over. Was it just that game that did it, maybe not, but the timing sure does not look good. Joe Ryan hopefully has several years in a Twins uniform to pitch for us, why risk having any kind of injury for a no-hitter? It is a single game in his life, that he would remember forever, but he could remember it forever for the wrong reason if he would have stayed in there and blew out his arm. The point is to win games, and keep guys healthy, not have no-hitters.
  19. Trov
    I find the expectations of some fans a little crazy. Coming into the season Twins were expected to be around .500, just over, and to have a chance to compete with the Sox, but many expected Twins to finish 2nd. We are .500 today, and have a chance to finish above .500. Our chances of making playoffs took a huge hit this past week, but not 0 yet. I am not saying we will make it. For the people that think a full new FO and coaching staff will get anything more next year, you must not follow baseball too much. I mean look at SF this year, they were one of the best teams last year, and this year they are below .500. Their roster is almost the same, pitching may have even been upgraded talent wise, but their offense was much worse. The big years from some guys did not happen again. Is that FO, or managers, or just players not performing the same? Should the FO saw it coming? Did the coaching staff ask them to make changes they did not need to do, or fail to get the players to make changes they should? We had a full MLB roster on IL for much of the year, we are not alone in injuries, but the team has been carried the last month or so with rookies, or backups. Some have stepped up or we would not even be .500. Just think if Miranda had not bounced back but hit like he did his first several games? Should Rocco and coaches get any credit for his improvement after he first struggled? What about Gordon and his offense? Do they get no credit for that? You may not like how he manages pitchers and the staff, and maybe some old school guy would have won a few more games, but maybe they would have lost several more too.
  20. Trov
    There should be no change in the FO. Baseball has long been a game that it takes several years to see the full impact of changes. It takes 3 to 7 years for most signed or drafted players to make the majors. I am not a fan of making changes too quickly in baseball and feel the FO has done just fine overall. You can attack some of the moves they have made, I fully agree, but they have made plenty of good moves too. It is not like there is no future with the team, we still have plenty of players in the pipeline to come up. Unlike NFL and NBA where a team can turn things around super fast, it is rare for baseball to see the full effect of a new FO quickly. I know they have been here for several years now, but we have made playoffs. The key to a good FO is having a consistent pipeline of players, not just going all in on a few top FA and trade targets hoping they pay off. Look at Padres, they have signed a ton of top guys, made a ton of trades for top guys and are 20 games back in their division, set to make playoffs if they can hold off the Brewers. They have not won as the talent they have brought in would expect. Is it the FO for lack of bring in top talent, no, is it the FO for not having certain depth, no, I mean they are 13 games above .500. They have a good team but still might not make playoffs because only 7 teams in NL have winning records. If anything, I think we need a new medical team or approach to help figure out why so many of our guys are having soft tissue injuries. You cannot predict torn ligaments or broken bones normally. Some may disagree about some of the TJ surgeries, but the fact we have almost a full MLB team on long term IL stints is crazy we even competed as long as we did. If people want a perfect FO that never makes a bad trade, bad signing, bad draft pick, you will always be disappointed and will keep firing everyone. As long as the good moves outweigh the bad ones, then I say stick with them.
  21. Trov
    What a dig at the Toronto coaching staff, considering he is having his worst season as a pro while pitching for them.
  22. Trov
    SWR had a rough run mid-season and ended up on IL. Since the IL stint he has been pretty good. He started off great in April, had terrible May, then was out most of June with injury. Since, coming back, even with his promotion, he has given up 11 runs in about 36 innings pitched, and struck out 46 walking 12. Martin also has been doing decent since his return from his injury. He missed over a month, and since he has been on base at least 1 time, most games more than 1 time, in every game but 2. He had back to back 0 for 4 with no walks or HBP. Sure it is not a ton of games, but fact he missed over a month and can do that is nice. The 1 draw back is only 5 extra base hits in those times. He has stolen 11 bases with only being caught 1 time, so even his walks or singles have been getting to second. His prospect rankings have taken a huge hit, but I am still optimistic he can play at this level.
  23. Trov
    He does need to work on off-speed stuff because teams are sitting on it. They know his fastball is hard to hit, so they just are looking for non fastballs for most part. However, I think at times the catcher and him are overthinking things. He needs to work on the off-speed, but in games I say use the fastball until they beat you on it. What is wrong with throwing it over and over if guys are not hitting it? Of course he cannot throw it every pitch, but maybe start with off-speed, then pound fast balls the rest of the at bat, or throw the off-speed out of the zone more. Not a full waste pitch, but work on not trying to throw for strikes as much, and use that to keep the hitter honest, then use the fastball. Until the league starts to tee off the fastballs, why make major adjustments? It is like hitters, they come up, crush fast balls then start missing breaking balls. They get thrown breaking balls all day long, half the time out of the zone, and until they show they will not chase, pitchers will keep throwing it. Everyone says Joe needs to throw more off speed because eventually players will hit the fastball, but until that happens why make it easy on the hitters? Work on the off-speed not in live games or in spring, which remember he did not have much of one this year.
  24. Trov
    I would say the biggest injury risk we dealt for was Paddock. I still do not mind the trade overall because he still has years of control and do not feel we gave up a ton, some feel otherwise but do not want to go down that hole. With Maeda I feel he should not even be on the list, he pitched nearly 2 seasons before the injury. Dyson lied about issues, we could not have known. Mahle, he is one that had flags, but was showing signs of doing well when dealt, so not much of a reason to think anything major. I mean we even had him come back because he seemed to just have a tired shoulder at the time. You can never fully predict if a guy will have an injury let alone a major one. You can get better offers, but many teams take on these risk factors and other teams have got burned just like Twins have.
  25. Trov
    Say what you will about Falvey's moves in FA, trades, and some draft picks, his calling card coming in was identifying diamond in the roughs in pitchers and building a possible pipeline that was built in Cleveland. I believe he has done exactly that hear. I know some will point out failed pitchers we brought in to try and refute my argument, but I pointing to the guys like Varland, Dobnak(yes he has not done much due to injuries but he went undrafted to MLB in short order, that is spotting something or development). Even Joe Ryan could be in that class so far as many experts slotted him as a pen pitcher but he has been one of our better starters since he got called up. Ober did fine last year and was improving out of no where as well. Of course there are some guys that have not panned out, or regressed lately, but there seems to be much more later round or undrafted successes than top pick busts. Are any of them HOF bound, not likely, but getting solid innings from guys like Dobnak(undrafted) who may not be great, but had a good start to his career and many pitchers taken in 2017 draft will never even make MLB level. Ober was a 12th round pick in 2017 as well, similar he is doing better than many pitchers picked ahead of him in that draft. Varland might be the best of all of the guys named above, and he was 15th round pick and doing better than many pitchers taken ahead of him. Of course there will be misses, and even pitchers we took ahead of guys like Ober, Varland, and Dobnak never pan out, but I am pretty sure this is good success rate for guys in those rounds. I could be wrong, but doubt it.
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