Trov

It is still just his second year in profession ball. My guess he will get moved up soon, but he was not a top prospect and sometimes numbers do not tell the full tale. We have had many pitchers do well in minors and never make it to the MLB level.

This is a great article on how the eye test can be deceiving when it comes to defense in baseball. I long said Jeter was not nearly as good on defense as people thought. He would make these flashy plays and that looks great, but you do not think about the plays they do not make that are not errors. I remember watching a highlight video of outfield plays and someone commented that Jim Edmounds, who made some great diving catches, really was not that good on defense because he was slow and had less range that is why he had to dive so much. Now I have not looked up to see if that was accurate, but the point is, sometimes making a diving highlight play does not mean you are good on defense, because a good defender may have made that play look easy. Buck is a great defender, not just because he can make some diving plays, but because his range is crazy, and he gets great jumps, so he gets to balls most will not even get to. That is also why when I see errors for infielders in minor leagues, I always say, we do not know what kind of errors they are if you did not see them. Joe Crede one year led league in errors at third, but was considered best defender by runs saved. This is because players with great range sometimes will get errors on throws when they try to make plays they can, but many others could not. The play would be a hit plus an extra base. A lessor defender would have not even been in place to make the throw. Urshela makes the highlight plays, but I fully agree he has also not made many plays he could.

It is hard to call Kirirlloff and Sano Goats when they have not played a ton due to injury. Sano did play a lot up to that and was terrible overall, but Twins were winning when he ended up getting injured. Pagan has blown a couple of saves now, and he may get worse, but he has not cost us a ton of games. Both his BS and his blown lead in 8th are against Detroit, maybe we just stop playing him against them. If you take away those three outings his numbers are not terrible. Outside of those Tiger games he has only give up runs in 3 outings none of which affected the outcome of the game. New Rule Pagan cannot pitch against Tigers.

If you can get him for very low level prospect I would take a flier on him that he can keep it going rest of year, but nothing too much. You cannot have too much pitching, but do not over pay for SSS. He can bust just as quickly.

I would not full DFA him yet. I would put him in much lower leverage outings and see how are many other rotating arms can do in high leverage situations, hoping Duffy can work through his issues. He has history of having a good run, maybe he can regain it.

If he can hit at MLB anywhere close to what he is doing at AAA he will fit where ever he can. DH, 1B, OF. I would much rather run him out there as a regular DH or move him around different positions than keep running Jeffers out as DH when Sanchez catches, or having Sanchez DH every time Jeffers Catches. Alex should be better hitters than either.

The fact he missed games because of ankle issue is an issue. That has been his biggest issue as it goes to output. The fact that we have so many other guys missing games around our infield he has not got as many games off as I think the Twins would have liked.

The fact they are going with Contrares and not Kirolloff clearly shows the next time Alex makes the team is they plan to have him long time, or he is not vaxed either, but thinking they want to keep Alex down until he shows long term success in AAA.

I am not going to assume what he is doing now will be forever, hopefully it will be, but he did have a terrible first year. He clearly has made adjustments, but will he do it again when pitching adjusts to him? He is hitting LH pitchers very well right now, will that continue? I am happy to see his defense has improved, and he is making great contact. He should basically be a plug and play guy until he hits a slump.

He has clearly shown he can adjust to how MLB started to pitch him. That was his biggest issue last year was he could not handle breaking balls and kept hitting weak contact against them and chasing. This year he is crushing them and not chasing out of the zone. The league will adjust to him again, hopefully he stays up on that and adjusts to the league. He has the approach and swing to be a top hitting corner outfield for several years. His defense has been better this year to, at least by eye test. My quick research seems to back up the eye test too that his defense is getting better too. I am happy to see the improvements and he is hitting against lefties better than right handed, in much less at bats, but clearly can play every day no need to sit him against LF guys right now.

The thing if he was still on the team this year, some of the offseason moves may not have been made, each move affects the next. It will be interesting to see how he does against us. Will he have a bounce back start, or will he get rocked? Berrios was always a decent starter, not a true number 1 guy but he could have some great starts and we always wanted more from him. He is now getting paid like a top 20 pitcher in all of baseball. He is in his age 28 season and having his worst season of his career. Can he turn it around, sure he has always been a guy that has run of bad starts and great ones. He was likely going to be traded at some point, as no way were Twins giving him a 7 year deal like he wanted. Although the trade may not be a great win for Twins down road, I have hope, my guess they would not have got anything better before this season or certainly not during it. If he was doing this with our staff, he would be the worst starter on overall results wise. Jose did have a few good starts for sure though. We would not be talking about how we need to get rid of Jose but how we need to be patient and he will bounce back. Too many fans look at him with rose colored glasses thinking he was much more than he was, because he was the best home grown pitcher in a long time, but he was not as good as many think he was. I hope for him he turns it around, but I believe we made the trade at the right time.

I would point out that had there not been a terrible throw from first base in Smith's inning he would have got out of the inning without giving up a run. The official scoring had it a hit with an error, and then the run turned to earn runs when the next guy hit a weak hit, but had Miranda made a good throw, like Torkelson on similar play later in game made, then we get out of inning without a run allowed. When you give teams extra outs, even when ruled hits, you will give up more runs. I do agree we are not dominate pen, but Rocco and company has a plan, and part of that is not to overuse the top guys or overuse starters. They plan out days in advance of who would be coming in and when normally. Of course plans adjust on the fly but they are working their process. Now, hopefully that gets us to playoffs, then throw that damn plan out the window in my opinion.

I think there is a lot of value in college pitchers later in drafts. Pitching is one of the hardest positions to really project over a career. So many little injuries can derail careers. You see some guys dominate for 3 to 4 years winning cy young awards only to bounce from team to team after a huge drop off. High school pitcher will put up big numbers in high school normally because they hardly face any top talent. Yes, they will go on their show cases, but in those the hitters will normally have never seen the pitcher, or seen them maybe see them a few times over the years. With college they will see same hitters a lot more often over their three year career. There is always such a fine line between good and great, and good and bad. High school guys you normally are looking at velo and movement but need to teach them to pitch. Sometimes they hit big, sometimes you miss big. Not that college arms are safe or anything, but at least you have more of an idea. Many top college arms over years have been busts.

I am glad to see Kirilloff driving the ball. I am not ready to bring him back up yet, but if he finishes out the week strong, and reports to be healthy, I am all for him coming up for Miranda, or if Polonco needs to go on DL for him.

Steer is in an interesting situation here. First, he will not debut this year barring any major injuries, being he is not on the 40 man, and we have several guys that cover his position. Therefore, he really is showing what he could do for next year, or for other teams to get a shot. He has not been touted as a top prospect, but he has done nothing but shown he can play so far. Adding that power is really going to jump him up some lists. That being said, he will be a top trade asset because of his ability to play all over. The Twins will need to assess if they think he will play at the MLB level soon, and do they like him better than what we have. Does he fit into plans next year? I think that is a big question. We have Polonco still next year, Arraez as well so 2nd is locke down. Our LF area is stacked with possible people if they thought of that move. SS is should be locked with either Correa if he stays or gets locked up longer term, or Lewis. That leaves 3rd, which may be filled if Correa stays by Lewis. There is also Miranda, who has not shown much, but was a top hitter last year. Personally, I think Steer gets traded at deadline, or Miranda does. One of them gets traded as there is no real room for both moving forward.

If this is your thoughts on the team, then why even play the season? Why not just trade away anyone with value to plan for the future? Yes, we never win the playoffs over the last 18 games, which is just crazy, but if you look at the team and assume we will lose then why even try to make the playoffs? I bet last year no one expected Atlanta to win. They did not have the 'ace' starter everyone says we need to win, but yet someone how they went through the Dodgers, who had 4 'ace' type guys and like 7 all-star hitters in their lineup, and some lights out bullpen guys. I guess Atlanta should have just traded away Freeman because he was a free agent and they should have given up on the season because their best player was hurt too. Any team that makes the playoffs can win no matter the roster. We were never favored in our WS wins, but still managed to do it.

Just to comment on the use past 6 innings. Only 5 averaged over 6 innings per start, 6 averaged exactly 6, and everyone else was below 6. So it is not just a Twins thing of pulling guys after 6 innings, most teams do that.

If you look just at on field performance you would say it was a bad trade. However, no way do we make the deal without expecting to sign a SS, like they did Correa. Maybe they do, but I doubt it. I agree getting Donaldson out of the clubhouse may be an upside. The Yankees are doing fine with him there, but maybe the honeymoon period is starting to end with recent White Sox series, which they are now on a 3 game losing streak. I have long said that in baseball chemistry plays a much bigger roll than any other sport. You spend all day every day with the same guys for hopefully 8 months. You get no weekends away from them, you shower with them, change with them, fly with them, take busses to games with them on the road, not sure if they will still share hotel rooms or not. My point is you do not get away from them. If you have a personal issue with someone it will eventually cause issues. We have seen teams in past have fist fights during the season. Do not be surprised if Yankess start to struggle if they blow up at some point too.

Glad to see Steer get the move up. Also glad to see Kirilloff have a good week. I still think he should stay down for at least a month of sustained good at bats before they look to bring him back to MLB level. We are not in need for him right now, as we have plenty of options in LF and 1B. He needs to show that he can get back to making hard contact and having good at-bats before he starts taking some from guys that have been.

I am happy with his SSS output, but his value is very limited. He hits LH pitching only. Sure, that can be very helpful for pinch hitting or the few starts against LH starters. However, that is all he is good for, and if he starts to falter on that, then he has little value. I am not saying he need to be cut, but he is still on the short list guy to be cut off roster when 60 man IL guys come back. I do feel if you have an almost complete team he is that bonus guy for big pinch hit at bats in big games. I would fully be willing to roll with him for that roll in the playoffs. Knowing you can bring him in late against a LH guy and may hit it out is nice to know, and may affect how a team uses their pen.

So you address 3 specific starters, Montas, Kyle Hendricks, I assume, and Nathan Eovaldi as 'ace' types we should target, and you say Joe Ryan is not one. Basically saying all three would slot ahead of Ryan. First, why do you rank them all ahead of him at this point? Is it because Ryan is a rookie and no long term track record? Also you say Berrios is not an ace, but a guy like him would be needed for the Twins, so going to look at him too. Maybe you are right that any of those guys would be the best starter. Montas, 9 starts, 50.2 innings, ERA 3.55 ERA+ 100, FIP 3.30, WHIP 1.007 9.8K/9 Hendricks, 9 starts 49.2 innings, ERA 4.89 ERA+ 84 FIP 5.52 WHIP 1.329 6.3K/9 Eovaldi, 9 starts 48.1 innings, ERA 4.10 ERA+ 99 FIP 5.51 WHIP 1.159 9.9 K/9 Berrios, 9 starts 47.1 innings, ERA 4.75 ERA+ 80 FIP 4.50 WHIP 1.437 6.7 K/9 Ryan, 8 starts 43.1 innings, ERA 2.28 ERA+ 159 FIP 3.24 WHIP 0.992 8.7 K/9 That is this season stats so far. I am using them because I want the pitcher they are now, not the pitcher they were before. Two of the pitchers are on the wrong side of 30 as well, which is when pitcher normally regress, so even if you look at career numbers, I would argue there is no reason to expect that. However, a quick snapshot of career WAR, I know not best to judge pitchers on but they are being compared to each other. Montas 6.5 in 5 full season, this being his 6th. Hendricks, 21.6 in his now 9th season, Eovaldi, 14.6 in his now 10th season. Berrios, 11.3 in his now 7th season. Ryan not even a full season is at 1.6, with 1.3 in his 8 starts this year. Judge how you will, but at this point I would say Ryan is the best out of all of them. Slightly less K/9 than Montas and Eovalid, but every other number Ryan is better on. Will it remain, maybe not. In terms of innings per start he is right on par with all of them too, but Berrios did have on start that went .1 innings. Now compared to other starters on our team would Montas be an upgrade, yes he would, but my point is that Ryan is doing just as well as any of the listed trade targets. Does he have the track record no, but even these guys outside of Hendricks none have a huge track record for a career. Hendricks though has dropped off his last 2 years being on wrong side of 30.

Who would you label as an 'ace'? What criteria makes someone an 'ace'? In this day in age, I bet you will be hard pressed to find what used to be an 'ace'. Also, do you expect the Twins to pitch someone of that capability that way? We have not seen the team run many guys out for even a 6th inning let along 7 or more. Maybe as the season goes on they would, but so far they are very much willing to pull guy after 6. Would you call Joe Ryan an 'ace' so far? Who do you think are available for a price the Twins are willing to pay in prospects that you would call an 'ace'? It is easy to say go get one, but the top teams that have them will not be trading them away most likely, because they will keep them. There are some good pitchers being talked about, but at least what I would say 'ace' none are in the talking points. I guess in part it will depend on what you define as an 'ace'.

I will agree you can always use more pitching. We have already used several starters in the first month plus of the season. Is Evaldi the right guy? As I say with all trades if the price is right. I would not give up much to get him at this point. He is not pitching well overall, but his history of doing so would give me some willing to use him. He would not be the first SP to fall off the cliff though in his early 30's. Lopez I would be willing to take on as well. He may be like many starters that when they get into that full time pen roll runs with it. Liam Hendriks comes to mind, along with many others. That being said I give up nothing major for him. Do not buy high on a guy that has never had long term success in the MLB. He has the possible stuff but for all we know this is SSS out of pen and as year progresses he falls apart. I wrote a long forum on the 1st base situation. I am not a fan of trading for anyone at this point. Bell would be a fine piece, but I think he is more smoke than fire. He is in his 6th year with a career WAR of 6.8. He only has two years of WAR above 1. Last year he did have a 3.1 WAR, and this year at .8. He could be an upgrade, but I think his numbers look a little more flashy than what his career has long been. He has also hit into 12 double plays this year. He has shown flashes of stardom in past only to have long stretches of poor hitting. His defense is average at best too. I would be worried we would be buying high on him when we have several possible options. Arraez has actually a higher OPS than Bell right now. Sure he has 3 less HR, and 3 less doubls, neither have a triple, but Arraez also has 50 less plate appearances and only 1 double play hit into. Yes, Bell has a better defense right now, but Arraez just started to play it, I would expect some improvement over the year if he stays there. Kirolloff may come back, or other guys could look to transition into it. My main point is, Bell does not appear to be the upgrade some will want, and if it means less playing time for Arraez overall, I am not a fan of it.

I feel June will tell us a lot about this team and if we are just an upper middle class team that will fade a bit or not. It is still hard to judge this team because we have pitched well, but not facing top offensive teams, so is it a product of who we are facing. We did hold Cleveland down who was one of the better offenses the first month though. However, our offense has not been clicking and dealing with injuries and slow starts I do have some optimism they will start to hit more when people get healthy and heated up. The main issue has been hitting with runners on base. It looks like the team may be heating up some on offense. Eventually the starting pitching will start to have some bumps and the pen will have some rough runs too. We just need to have the offense going when some of that happens.

I think Larnach is doing rehab in AA because they are much closer to where Twins will be this weekend that he may be getting called up and can take a 3 hour car ride instead of having to find a flight from Omaha. I hope he does come back and swinging like he was to be every day LF. I like Gordon overall, but Larnach is a much better hitter when swinging well. Good to see Lewis staying hot. I hope he starts to force the teams hand in next month. Balazovic is starting to worry me. I am glad we can take our time with him to get back to what he was, but this has been a stretch of not very good starts. SWR is not dominating as he was, but maybe starts like this are best for him. He was not dominating had runners on but did not give up a bunch of runs. I am looking forward to see him called up to AAA after break.