Trov

He does need to work on off-speed stuff because teams are sitting on it. They know his fastball is hard to hit, so they just are looking for non fastballs for most part. However, I think at times the catcher and him are overthinking things. He needs to work on the off-speed, but in games I say use the fastball until they beat you on it. What is wrong with throwing it over and over if guys are not hitting it? Of course he cannot throw it every pitch, but maybe start with off-speed, then pound fast balls the rest of the at bat, or throw the off-speed out of the zone more. Not a full waste pitch, but work on not trying to throw for strikes as much, and use that to keep the hitter honest, then use the fastball. Until the league starts to tee off the fastballs, why make major adjustments? It is like hitters, they come up, crush fast balls then start missing breaking balls. They get thrown breaking balls all day long, half the time out of the zone, and until they show they will not chase, pitchers will keep throwing it. Everyone says Joe needs to throw more off speed because eventually players will hit the fastball, but until that happens why make it easy on the hitters? Work on the off-speed not in live games or in spring, which remember he did not have much of one this year.

I love the pitch clock, it will make the game move faster. I like the disengage mound rule as it lead to possibly more strategy, and action. I am not a fan of the anti shift rule, but it is not super extreme because middle infielders can still play very close to second base but still be on their side of it, it mainly stops the 2nd baseman from playing deep in the outfield, which I think is dumb, if you can play deep and still get the out at 1st why not let them do it? The base size is expected to lead to more stolen bases, and less injuries, as has been evidenced in the minors where it has been tested. The moves are all targeted to speed up play, and increase action in the field, which hopefully it will. If it makes the game more entertaining I am for it.

I would say the biggest injury risk we dealt for was Paddock. I still do not mind the trade overall because he still has years of control and do not feel we gave up a ton, some feel otherwise but do not want to go down that hole. With Maeda I feel he should not even be on the list, he pitched nearly 2 seasons before the injury. Dyson lied about issues, we could not have known. Mahle, he is one that had flags, but was showing signs of doing well when dealt, so not much of a reason to think anything major. I mean we even had him come back because he seemed to just have a tired shoulder at the time. You can never fully predict if a guy will have an injury let alone a major one. You can get better offers, but many teams take on these risk factors and other teams have got burned just like Twins have.

It should be Jewell, he never made it to MLB level prior to us picking him up this year, and since we got him he has done nothing of value in AAA. Megill may be struggling but for much of the year he put up decent numbers. I looked and he is on pace to match the most amount of innings he has pitched as a pro, back in 2019. It is fully possible he has hit bit of a wall on the innings. It may be only at about 51 innings, but last year he only got about 38 innings, none in 2020, 60 in 2019, 38 in 2018, 28 in 2017. He really hit his skid when he got to inning about 43. He is not the go to guy, but I bet a team would snatch him up, where Jewell we would never even realize if he gets picked up.

Glad to see the level of debate and some well thought out posts. I for one do want the team to make playoffs, and is of the belief making it is the key anything can happen, rarely does the best team win the WS even in long series. I do think we could hold our own against many of the teams in the playoffs, as my post showed we have a winning record against every team in the wild card hunt. Who all have better records than us. Only the division leaders have we looked terrible against. Could Buck come back and get hot, and Polonco who has shown he can carry teams for short stints? Yes, they both could. Anyone could step up in the playoffs, or we could have the terrible offense we have shown at times and get swept, but you will not know if you do not make it. I made the post to get the debate going and people's thoughts. I was happy to see some good back and forth. I fully agree with those pointing to 87 that we could get hot end of this month get into playoffs and carry that the whole way. Atlanta did it last year. Very few expected them to make playoffs let alone win it all last year. It is likely to happen no, but just make the playoffs and try you never know.

First, we do not need to win series against Yankees to make playoffs, being we have plenty of head to head games down the stretch with both Sox and Guardians to figure out who wins the division. However, the Yankees are slumping bad, with about as many injuries we have been dealing with and outside of Judge, not much offense can be counted on each game. Sounds pretty similar to much of our last few months. Now, when you look at the elite teams, which until the injury bug set in the Yankees were in the Elite class, we have not done well. We have lost all games against Houston, and the Dodgers, two of the Elite teams in baseball we have played. We won a game against the Yankees, and blew a game against them earlier in year. Right now Yankees are not playing like an Elite team, and I feel if we cannot at least split against them, it is hard to believe we will do anything but get swept from playoffs again if we make it. We did hit just fine against Yankees first series at home, scoring 4,8.7 runs in the series, but still losing 2 out of 3. We have been rolled over by every top team in the league so far, winning one game against a team that is top of the league. We have held our own against the second tier teams for most part, winning season series against Rays, Jays, Baltimore, and Seattle. All teams fighting for wild cards, or possible division if Yankees continue to slide. However, they all have better records than Twins. So maybe if we face one of those in playoffs we could win a game, but if we face either Yankees or Houston, at this point I have no expectations we would win a game. Maybe, if we can beat a slumping Yankees team I will feel otherwise, but that would requite a split of the 4 games. I do say you never know what playoffs will bring, but in the games against Houston, Dodgers, and Yankees I have watched, we did not look like we can compete with them for most part. Even when we scored 7 runs in loss to Yankees it felt like we were going to lose from the jump.

I think it is a little early to say it was blown so badly. First, we do not know how Mahle will pan out with us over the rest of his team control, keeping in mind we have him next year. Sure, early on he has been on IL twice with shoulder issues, which is not ideal, but even if he does not produce this year, he can pitch well for us next year and that needs to be evaluated in the trade. Second, we do not know what value the players we sent out will produce. Steer is at MLB level and hit a HR and 2b in 9 at-bats with 3 walks. Not a bad start at all. But it is only 3 games, that does not make a career. I expect he will be just fine. Not sold on Encarnacion-Strand as a MLB player yet. He is putting up big numbers at low levels, but there is a reason the experts have not moved him way up lists yet, they know there are still holes that higher levels may exploit. Hajjar has done not much for new team yet. The one thing that a lot of people never pay attention to when evaluating trades is what players were not included. What do I mean by that? We traded a utility IF with from what I have read decent defense but more bat than defense, most likely settles in at 2b or 3b, maybe OF. We also traded a low level 3b or 1b guy that is all bat no defense. Finally, a college pitcher that was having a good year overall in low minors for first year. Who do we have in our system that fills Steers position? Polonco, Arrez, Miranda, Nick Gordon, Brooks Lee, Lewis, Austin Martin, Palacios. All fill similar roll to Encarncion-Strand too, depending on power out put. Point is we had a lot of depth at the exact positions we dealt from. So if any of the players I list play and do better than the ones traded away, then the loss in their value is not as big of a deal. I mean it is possible either of them would not crack the starting line up with the Twins because of players ahead of them. We have a ton of college pitchers that are doing well and maybe Hajjar does fine, but he is not even in top 30 pospects of Reds, so for now experts are not sold on him, they may be wrong, but his first 2 games were not goos for new level and now has not pitched for a few weeks.

First, great question and topic to dive into. What do we mean by baseball IQ? I believe baseball IQ is about ones ability to understand situations and make the best call based on that decision. It is very nuanced kind of thing. Examples would be seeing when a pitch or fielders are paying no attention and stealing bags, despite being poor runner. Taking the extra bases when fielder make wrong decisions on throws. Reducing runners extra bases by making right decisions. But even more in depth is hitters knowing what pitches would be coming and looking for them. Rounding first base knowing no one is behind you so you can go extra off the base. Tagging up on clear foul balls than to play part way. Is baseball IQ something you're born with or does it increase with experience? I do not think anyone is born with it, but it takes time to think through many different situations. The more you play, but actually think about situations is where the IQ will increase. Sometimes players should do something not common or expected and you do not realize how smart it was until after it is done. Do we mean something different between experience and baseball IQ? Yes, I believe experience does not mean the same as IQ. I think experience helps increase the IQ, but IQ will lead to those few times where you do something that is not the normal play, because in the moment you realize it was the right play. One example, is the Derek Jeter relay in the playoffs, Denny Hocking had similar play during regular game prior to that play, but it is not common for the SS to run across the field for a relay like that, but in the moment the run was so important that you see the ball may be off line or will not get there in time so you do something like that to help get the out. To me that is IQ, and not just experience, but they are close. Who are some examples of players whose baseball IQ exceeds their nominal talent? This is tough one for me but one player who had great talent, but in one area he was very well known for his IQ was Paul Molitor as a base runner. He was never a speedster, not super slow either, but he was great at stealing bases because he knew when to steal, or he would see the pitch would be in the dirt and take off before it kicked away, knowing the catcher would rarely pick it clean to throw him out. He stole at nearly 80% success rate, for his career and at age 37 stole 20 bases without being caught 1 time. He did it with his IQ not his overall speed, because he just knew the best time to do it. Is baseball IQ something that doesn't show up in stats yet contributes to wins? I think it shows up in both stats and sometimes not show up in stats. For example, some runners will take the extra base to keep out of double plays, or get into run downs to save double plays or get into run downs to make sure a run scores. None of those show up in stats but will all contribute to wins. On the other hand as mentioned in Paul Molitor base stealing that does show up in stats. That is just one example. However, I do feel we think of it more as a non stat producing thing. Do you have any players you root for even though you question their baseball IQ? Off the top of my head Nick Gordon is one that I question is baseball IQ, but root for. One example I can think of is the other day against the Sox he was up 1st and 3rd 0 outs. Hamilton pinch ran at first. Gordon swung at first pitch despite Hamilton running, fouling the ball off. Not sure Hamilton would have stolen, but as the at bat played out, Gordon drove in the run, and Hamilton ended up on 2nd with 1 out, but if Hamilton steals 2nd, it is possible that Gordon gets the run in and then Hamilton is on 3rd with 1 out, increasing the chance of a second run scoring that inning. We lost that game when gave up the 1 run lead, but could have worked 2 runs. He also has made poor decisions to come off the 2nd base to field bad throw on steal attempt when he had no chance to get out.

That is true, he was behind several guys in our lineup. He would have got a chance next year if he stayed here, but Reds are fully rebuild they will give him every chance, here he would have had to break out or get sent down. We also have a few guys that fit same roll that would be right behind him to pushing him. That is why I had no issue with trading him because we had a lot of depth at same area he fills.

Say what you will about Falvey's moves in FA, trades, and some draft picks, his calling card coming in was identifying diamond in the roughs in pitchers and building a possible pipeline that was built in Cleveland. I believe he has done exactly that hear. I know some will point out failed pitchers we brought in to try and refute my argument, but I pointing to the guys like Varland, Dobnak(yes he has not done much due to injuries but he went undrafted to MLB in short order, that is spotting something or development). Even Joe Ryan could be in that class so far as many experts slotted him as a pen pitcher but he has been one of our better starters since he got called up. Ober did fine last year and was improving out of no where as well. Of course there are some guys that have not panned out, or regressed lately, but there seems to be much more later round or undrafted successes than top pick busts. Are any of them HOF bound, not likely, but getting solid innings from guys like Dobnak(undrafted) who may not be great, but had a good start to his career and many pitchers taken in 2017 draft will never even make MLB level. Ober was a 12th round pick in 2017 as well, similar he is doing better than many pitchers picked ahead of him in that draft. Varland might be the best of all of the guys named above, and he was 15th round pick and doing better than many pitchers taken ahead of him. Of course there will be misses, and even pitchers we took ahead of guys like Ober, Varland, and Dobnak never pan out, but I am pretty sure this is good success rate for guys in those rounds. I could be wrong, but doubt it.

I wonder if Walner gets put on 40 man and gets a September shot? He is hot for right now, that may not carry into pro level, but we need as much offense as we can get, and he could supply that. However, we have a few 60 day IL guys that may need to come of that will make it harder to find a 40 man spot for him.

I love that his slump is still above average hitter. I think he is just going through adjustment to how he is being pitched. Early in year he was smacking line drives to LF all day long. Now teams are pounding him inside to try to prevent that, leading to him needing to pull more. I am not worried about him at all, and all players have a slump. He is still leading league in hitting, and I would still take him in the box over just about anybody in our line up.

I would add that I am very impressed with his approach at the plate. He seems to have a plan up there and look for specific pitches that he is expecting. Sometimes it leads to him looking foolish, like last night against Wacha where he was up 3-1 on count and took to called strikes because he guessed wrong, but he is clearly having thoughts in his head of what he is expecting. An at-bat later on he pulled a ball deep and foul, then next pitch he smoked a liner the other way, for an out, but it showed he was expecting that pitch and was ready for it. I fully expect he will have good seasons as a hitter, now I just hope he can work on his glove work, where ever he settles in.

I would not say he is underrated. He is hitting overall well, but so are many of the other rookies on the list that are offensive, and all of them play better defense. I bet if Twins were offered most of the other offensive guys on that list, except for maybe Kwan and Donovan, straight up for Miranda they make that move. Not taking anything away from him, and I like him, but he is mostly just bat.

Whether you like his style or not, I do not think he is going anywhere, unless the team completely falls off. We are above .500 and unless we crash the last month of the season we should finish above .500. That would be 3 out of 4 above .500, and we have a good chance to still make playoffs depending on how last month goes. Our star CF has been injured or playing hurt most of this season. We are on our like 5th LF, and used a like 10 starters, and 20 pen pitchers it seems, not sure exact numbers. I am not defending his style, but Rocco has been winning overall, we have no clue if anyone else would have done any better, and I would doubt they would. Also, Rocco is managing how I believe the FO wants, following analytics.

Balazovic concerns me the most because clearly something is off with him. My hopes is he figures it out during off season and he can bounce back. Lucky we were never slotting him in to be in the rotation and have huge depth for next year as well. Martin is disappointing he did not take steps and may have regressed, but he also has been injured part of the year, and you never know how much of a nagging injury he had. He will never be a big power hitter, but hopefully he can be more of a line drive guy that hits the gaps for extra base hits. Canterino is not surprising as he came from Rice who love to burn their college arms out. Hopefully after the recovery of TJ he will give us something.

The thing you need to remember about SS is that it is generally not a position that offers both good defense and good offense, and most of the time you get one or the other. Correa last year was the best defender and was above average on offense. You are just looking at offense numbers, which is a poor way to evaluate SS. That being said Correa has regressed a little on defense too. On average in FA WAR cost about 8 to 9 mil per WAR. Correa has been good for 3.7 right now, so he should be getting paid about 30 to 35 mil. So per WAR he is getting paid just about right for what a FA cost. All the other guys you list, outside of Tatis because of not playing, everyone is making about what WAR to cost in FA are on par with getting what they paid for. You can argue they should be paid less, but when you look at what the cost in FA for WAR they are not overpaid, any of them. Are they on path for HOF, maybe not, but you need to compare to the rest of the league at the time and how they compare.

I am of the opinion that on TV the play by play guy servers very little role, other than to grab the viewers attention that something happened, unlike on radio where they need to paint a picture for you. On TV the color commentator(s) job is to explain to the viewer why things were done a certain way, or what a viewer should be looking for. Not every viewer will have the same experience, and some producers have the view that they will make sure if this is the first game someone has seen, or know nothing about the game, they will understand it. Now, in terms of the two commentators, personally I like the debating they do because Perk is an analytic guy and Justin is not. So they debate the two, but I like debate. I can see why some would not like it because it is not adding much to the game and more like a sports debate show. Also, I have never heard anyone refer to Vin Scully as Vince. His given name was Vincent, but he was always known as Vin as an announcer, but I never heard anyone call him Vince.

It was a lefty pitcher Garlick hit against, not a righty. Game cast must have had that wrong.

I expect he breaks at AA next year. As long as he can field a position he will be making his MLB quickly, unless there is a huge regression next year.

I fully agree this is a huge risk Mariners. I find it to be little risk for J-Rod. I say that being even if he could have earned more over the lifetime of his career he will still make plenty of money over his career now. I mean sure maybe by the first few years of FA the contracts would be 5 to 10 mil more for an elite player, assuming he gets there, but really he will not be begging for money ever in his life now. It is the exact opposite of Soto, who turned down similar money over similar length because he wanted to be the highest or near highest per season and did not care about the overall total. I think he also did not want to be tied to Nationals because of unknown ownership, but it is crazy to turn down over $400 mil because injuries can derail a career very quickly.

He offers very little other than an emergency injury replacement should we need it. He has no offense and can run and play defense, but we need guys that can get actual hits. Imagine him and Leon in the same line up, why not just say we have to auto outs. I mean unless you are asking for a bunt I would tell them to never even swing the bat, their chances of getting on base are higher.

Even before I read I said to myself, Joey Gallo is who he was going to say. Personally, I am not a fan of that style of hitter, unless they are hitting HR with runners on or at least hits with RISP, I do not care how many solo HR a guy hits. Sure, in some games they may win, but all too often they strike out or fail when RISP but when game is blow out one way or other they hit a solo HR so season numbers look good. I used to always point to Trevor Plouffe on this issue, This year Buxton has had a similar season where he gets HR and extra base hits when no one is on, but when runners on he strikes out too much failing to drive runs in. We get in awe of the HR and power, but forget that with 1 out and runner on third they swing through a pitch out of the zone, but love the light tower power when pitcher is just trying to get through the at bat.

Let me ask you this. If he would have hit with a launch angle that would have made it the farthest HR ever would that be news worthy to you?

First, in terms of the analytic comment, I agree that team has gone too far down that path, and forget players still play. As for blaming hitting coach, I cannot say that is for sure, many of the vets are not performing well, can we say that is because the hitting coach has taught them wrong? Look at the younger guys, Gordon and Miranda, both doing well overall and have improved after slower starts. I would suggest that has something to do with coaching and working through adjustments. I doubt the coach has much to do with vets at this point in their careers, maybe but their poor play I do not put on hitting coach. Maybe Rocco is to blame some based on moving guys around, but based on how they are asking guys to hit, I doubt that should have much to do with it. Unlike in years past where you want the leadoff guy to take pitches, Rocco does not care if the lead off guy swings at first pitch, as long as it is good pitch to swing at. So they never have to change approach no matter if they are hitting 1 or 9. Now, is that the right way to go, maybe not. Finally, to your last question, no I will not say it was a bad trade. Rogers has a negative WAR and negative WPA. Has Rodgers been better than Pagan, yes, but Rogers has not been great either. He had good and bad stretches. Paddack got hurt, but he still is under team control for 2 more years. So one, we do not know how that will play out so trade is not closed, and two we do not know how much better our record would be with Rogers on our team based on his poor performances at time too, and we would not have always used Rogers as a closer. Was it a good trade? I would say no. I would say it was a close to even trade so far and would have had little impact on the outcome of this season, but may impact future seasons in the positive.