Trov

The only move that I think would make any sense would be Garlick for Rooker, unless they are hoping a pitcher can sneak through, or does not care. I am not sold on Rooker having any future. He is DH only, or should be, and does not do that well either. At least Garlick will not be a complete statute in the OF and has shown he can hit lefties so he can take at bats from Kepler for until the starter is taken out then let Kepler hit later in game and play defense.

Every team has a ton of If's every year. It is always if our best players can stay healthy. If our pitchers perform well. If our team hits well. I get where the writer is going with this, but every team has the if player x grows or plays like they did in past, or stays healthy. You have an if Buck stays healthy, which then assumes he will play at the MVP level he was last year when healthy, but maybe he will be healthy but return to his young 20's form and be below average offense. So that is really 2 ifs for one player. We have ifs on health for each player, and performance on each player. No team does well if their players play below expectations going into the season.

Please provide who you wish they would have signed or traded for, instead of who they have. Lets assume the deals would have been comparable or most likely slightly more in price, and the trades would have been similar or give reasonable hypothetical trades. Then, look at the end of the season and see if your plan or the way the Twins went turned out better. Then you can submit this to the Pohlads for your case as to why you should now be GM for the Twins. As you said, only time will tell, but to assume our rotation will be terrible and other viable options would have been better makes no sense. The past results of just about every FA pitcher, outside of Scherzer, has huge question marks of either health or coming off of career years with long sustained poor pitching. Maybe the likes of Rondon, Robbie Ray, Gausman, and many others will be good with their teams, but just about every FA had red flags, either coming off of career year, history of injury, or relying on past success hoping the last year was a fluke. So many people are down on the trades or moves not made, and just assume the young guys will have 0 success and the flier guys will have 0 success, not even looking at the fact that several of the top signings this year, Rondon, Ray, and Gausman have all had long stints of average to poor years only to have recent success, entering FA years. I am not saying those guys will flop, but pitchers are volatile and some will drop off, and some will bounce back.

The notion that Ryan will always match up against teams top arms based on starting opening day defies history. Yes, logic would say teams will commonly match up their 1 through 5 starters, but over a full season with injuries, off-days with teams skipping starts, or giving extra rest, double headers, and what not. This will lead to at times our 5 matching up against other teams 1 and vice versa. This does not mean we think he is our best pitcher, or that he will always get the start against other teams best pitchers. There is 162 games in a season, this is just 1 of them. We have no clue how other teams will adjust their starters based on their team and schedule, nor do we know how we will down the road. If this was a post-season series I would say it is a big deal, but really to me it is much to do about nothing.

I just want to point out about possible signings or trades, that in 2018, many would have loved us to trade for Chris Archer. Pretty sure many wrote about how we should. If we had, we would have lost on that trade as after he was traded he pitched terrible and was injured. The point is, pitching is volatile, they get injured, they fall off cliffs never pitching like they had earlier in their careers. Guys that looked to be on way to HOF just stop pitching well for some reason. I could list dozens and dozens over the last few decades that fit that bill. Some do it after they sign big deals. Everyone seems to think we would be better off with a vet late 20's to early 30's pitcher and assume they will be better than the young to mid 20's guys, simply because they have not pitched at MLB for long, or at all. Several years of decent pitching does not mean this year will be any better. The writer lists Cory Kluber as a signing made pre-lockout. He had a good first half last year, but injury again cost him. The last time he was good for a full year was 2018. Not much different that Archer. Rondon only good year was last year, his rookie year was decent. Many of the others listed, outside of Scherzer have had down years and outlier years. There is little reason to expect they will repeat their outlier year.

One thing I want to point out, the last 2 full season WS winners, not including 2020, where teams that no one expected even near the trade deadline to win it all. Specifically, last year, the Braves made a bunch of trades to fill holes that all paid off. That is not common for sure, but the point is, the FO has always pivoted when things were not working if they felt they had a chance. Last year was such a cluster of fails across the board early on that we had way too big of hole to climb out of. That being said, sure we did not bring in established FA pitchers, but history shows that is not the way to build your team on FA starting pitchers, most teams regret the deals they make by the end of the deal. Unless every young pitcher fails and both Bundy and Archer fails, I think they will be in contention this year. Yes, Sanchez does not make much sense, but it was needed to free up Donaldson to sign Correa. My guess when they traded Garver they did not plan to trade with Yankees, but Yankees most likely offered to take Donaldson for the SS, and the FO figured they could then use the savings to go after Story, who balked at our offer and Correa was the pivot. It is like people forget there are 30 teams all looking to do things with rosters and all the FA will just say MN is the place to go if they come calling. We have minor leaguers too. We do not see the progress that may have been made or how the team views the young pitchers. It is fully possible they see the young pitchers as better options than many of the FA out there. At some point the young guys need a chance, but if we always sign a vet to fill holes they never get that chance.

I know many have issues with lack of bringing recent established starting pitching, other than Gray. However, we have plenty of MLB, or near MLB ready prospects and brought in some flier options. With the contracts that the recent established starters got this year, I ma fine with not dipping into the FA market. We also do not know what the A's were asking for their starter right now. I give at least a b+ if not an A-. We locked up Buck to a contract that will not cost a ton if he keeps being hurt. We filled our SS hole, although for maybe only 1 year, but it came clear we were not going to fill it any other way and made a nice pivot. Too many people worry about the signings we did not make or trades we did not make, but never look at what we may have in the system, or how some long term contracts could affect us in the future beyond this year. Many long term FA contracts for pitchers have very low value after the first year or two. We also do not know if or what we offered any of them contracts and the specifics of them. Sure, if none of our young pitchers perform and the two fliers flop, then we can say we made a mistake, but if we signed all the top FA pitchers and they all got hurt or flopped we would say the same thing.

Gordon will break with team. His versatility on defense will carry. He can play all positions on defense, other than catcher. No one else on that list can do that. Although he may not be the best at them, he can be backup CF or SS if needed. That holds a lot of value. As for 4th OF I am not sure if Larnach will get it simply because Twins may want him to get regular at-bats. I think he would still get plenty of at-bats if he breaks with team though so I do expect him. I do expect Godoy as well with using Sanchez as normal DH they will want to have a 3rd catcher, although they have done the DH being backup catcher before without a 3rd so he is not a lock.

Good article. I know the baseball world has fell in love with high velo, and at time ignore good output despite the velo. Of course high velo can be effective, but it mainly just makes up for poor performance in other areas. Although I could never hit high velo, I believe changing of speeds and location is always more important that just speed. I have seen hitters turn 100 plus MPH around. For MLB hitters when you know it is coming and it has little to no movement hitters can do it. However, when a guy loses his velo and still is productive, I believe they will pitch for many years because they know how to pitch. They know how to work the hitter, hitting corners, mixing speeds and locations, keeping the hitter off balance. I have seen good hitters hit good pitches because they expected it. If I was running a team, you can start with velo for a pitcher, but if a mid to late 30's guy has been around with low velo and keeps being productive I do not care. I do not care if a guy pumps 100 or 85 MPH if both get an out, they both get an out. Now, I feel it is much more of a risk if a guy was throwing mid 90's then is only throwing 90 and has no track record of success with the decreased velo. To me that is where you need to be worried, because he has not shown he can get by with reduced velo. Smith has clearly shown he can do it.

If his bat plays at MLB level they will find a place for him to play. If he needs to move to OF, or push his way into 3B and push them somewhere. There are many guys that could have played SS but others were better so they took other positions. It is not like if Lewis is MLB ready he will sit in minors because other guys can play the position too. If he is the best player at the position he will play.

TOS is not a career killer per se, the article points out some it is, and what appears to the the more recent guys, but not everyone falls apart. No one really improves after it, but you also have to keep in mind there may be other factors like age that plays into it.

I do not mind the move, as a cheap flier that if he is not healthy or not affective he can be cut, but if he is healthy and can make any kind of return to his prime years he will be a great back of rotation guy. You are not counting on him to be a main guy. At this point he is more a possible depth guy that could regain something. I will not expect much from him, but who knows. What worries me most is that he had thoracic outlet syndrome. I read an article that claims most pitchers that get surgery for this do recover to previous performance prior to surgery, but there has been several big names that had big numbers prior to their surgery and no where near what they did after. It may be that they were already regressing for other reasons. I hope he makes a bounce back and can help us out, but not expecting much from him.

I do not want anyone in front of Buxton that will hurt his speed. His speed is one of the biggest tools he has. He turns singles into doubles and doubles into triples. I love Arraez for his .OBP, but I think he is better suited lower in line up because of his ability to hit all over the field. He is one where you can do hit and runs with runners on, or he will work counts to allow for steals if you have a runner that can steal. You put him on base in front of Buxton some times you will take extra base hits, or stolen bases away from Buck, which limits his scoring potential.

I see Urshela as the backup utility guy and Arraez getting most of the starts at third, unless he is terrible on defense there. Miranda may get time there too. Maybe Urshela has a bounce back year, but that is less likely as he is getting older.

I personally have never been entertained by a manager or player throwing a tantrum. Umpires get balls and strikes wrong way too often. They put in replay to fix the calls they get wrong on the field, save for a few cases, but yet to fix the call they get wrong most, because it is hard to get right. Umps may be about 90% on the ball strike call, and even if you think 90% is good enough, they are actually around 50% on close calls. So they get the easy calls right 100%, but it is basically a coin flip on the boarder line calls. What makes it even worse, they will adjust what they call based on the circumstances. If the count is 0-2, and the pitch is close the ump is more likely to call a ball, just like if 3-0 they are more likely to call a strike. Also, if they just called it one way and a similar pitch location they will call it the other way, again if boarder line. To say having bad calls be made is part of the game and what is entertaining about it, to me means you do not like the game because you do not care about the players making the difference, but you want the umps to get people angry.

The robo umps at AAA makes me think they will be going to that at MLB sooner than later. The challenge system in A ball seems interesting. I wonder how quickly you would need to decide, and if teams will have their own access to a system to get an idea or if it will just be guess. It would add to strategy of when to use them. For example, would you use them on a 2-0 count when a strike is called but it is important at-bat? Do you use on a 3-0 count when the "auto" strike is called, with 2 outs and no one on, just to prove a point? Would you use more as a pitching team, or a hitting team, or would it be very specific to the situation. I mean of course there are clear cases on a 3-2 count that leads to a bases loaded walk, if it is close you use it, or last outs of games on called third strike or walks that could be last out of game. I am interested to see how that plays out, even though, I am much more of a fan of the overall robo umps. I am a fan of the pitch counts as well. It will also lead to gaming the system, having pitchers wait to last second to throw when runner on maybe waiting to throw over at that last second, or quick pitching when all throw over is done. No more long set motions by pitchers.

As long as everyone stays healthy they can have one of the best defenses in the league. Not only having 2 platinum glove winners, Kepler is above average, Arraez I believe had good numbers at 3rd and expect he will get most of the innings there when healthy. LF and 1b will be biggest holes overall.

He is saying all the right things. Maybe he opts out after year one to cash in on hoping for a 8 to 10 year deal, something Twins will never do. Maybe he stays a second year if he likes the team, or they work out a new deal that he likes and Twins will too. Some guys will just want all the money, but when you are talking about already having crazy life changing money, sometimes you can forgo some extra life changing money for having other things in your life. Maybe he likes MN so much he will not feel like he needs to leave, maybe not.

You are higher on Caveco than Lewis, because Lewis has not shown he can hit? Caveco in his first full year had OPS of .598 with a k rate of 35%. Lewis first full season had OPS of .803 with a K rate of 16%. Caveco also only played rookie and low A, where Lewis did low A and high A. Yes, last season Lewis played his numbers were lower, OPS of .661 and K rate of 22%, but also was against higher league and he won MVP of fall league. You may not be high on Lewis, but to say you are not high on him because he has not shown he can hit, but then say you are high on Caveco, who has shown he is much worse hitter so far. Lower power, higher strike outs, lower walks. Could Caveco become better, sure anything is possible, but right now there is no way Caveco is considered a better possible hitter than Lewis.

Oakland is clearly tearing down the roster. Anyone that has value and still 1 to 2 years of team control are getting traded. Unless they shock people it is unlikely Oakland will be competing in next 2 years. Why would they want a guy like Arraez in a trade as the headliner? By time they are going to compete again Arraez will be on the trading block. I see no way that Arraez is the piece Oakland is trying to get from Twins. They want either Lewis or Martin most likely and one of the top starting prospects. Most likely a third lower tier prospect as well. I would shocked if we make a deal with Oakland and Arraez is part of it, not that we would not deal him, but because he does not fit Oakland time table right now.

This is not some major move. He may never actually pitch for us because we may remove him from 40 man and he gets claimed. If he does stay he may be a pen guy in and out throughout the year and maybe into next year. He is a flier move that may help us for a couple years that is all.

In terms of the question of the contract talks, the rumor I heard was Correa was the one reaching out to teams on this contract. I read it was offered to Houston and they did not want to agree to it. For the Twins side, they were under the impression Story was not going to take their offer, whatever it was, so they gave Correa a call to see what he was looking for. When that offer was an option they jumped on it. I think it is a win win deal. I know most say well it is only a 1 year deal and we are back needing a SS next year. Most likely yes, but you deal with that at most positions every year. Personally, I am a fan of shorter deals giving you flexibility. If we are not doing well this year, Correa can be traded, he has limited no trade is my understanding, and most teams will be willing to take him on with this contract. If we are competing and doing well even if he walks so be it, we got a good year out of it.

This FO has always shown they are willing to make moves, but also never married to an idea. I like the difference in FO than what we had for the 10 years prior. I did like Terry Ryan and feel he did a good job when he first started, but he failed to change with the times. Bill Smith did a good job of signing some young guys and some decent drafting in his days, but was terrible at trades. It is still too early to tell how the FO is doing drafting, but in next year or two we will see if they made some good drafts or not. Just like all FO there will be some misses and some hits no one expected. What I like is that despite Donaldson being okay, they felt he was not going to give them what they wanted moving forward. Maybe we could have signed a FA SS with Donaldson on the books, but it frees up 3rd base where we have now 3 possible guys to fill in. Donaldson was fading quickly too. He stayed healthy and put up decent offense, but his defense was fading and he was quickly going to be a 1st base DH guy. He could not run at all anymore. I hated seeing him hit in the 2 hole with Buck in the 3, because if Donaldson was on base Buck was limited to what he could on the bases. Yes Donaldson had more power than who most likely will replace him over the year, but I think we will most likely have an upgraded team. Really, we have not given up anything that hurts our near future either. Hopefully we bring in at least 1 more starter, but even if Correa walks after this year, we can pivot to the FA SS next year or use one of our internal prospects if they are ready. We filled a hole for this year without handcuffing us in the future. That was my biggest worry about a long term deal with Story. I was concerned he would come no where near producing what we wanted after the first year or two and we would be stuck paying him way too much to play second base putting up subpar offense. Maybe I will be wrong on him, but I bet Story does not opt out his last couple years of his contract and Boston will be regretting his contract.

I think the back issues are exactly why we were able to sign him. We signed Buxton because of his injury history so his asking price was so much lower than could have been. Correa was looking for the biggest deal of the off-season. I think teams were worried that his back injury would continue to be an issue into his 30's so were less willing to give him a 10 year 300 mil deal like he wanted. He is mostly betting on himself here that he can show he will stay healthy for a second season and then a team will be more willing to take that long term risk. If it acts up again, then he has a couple more years to make good money and prove he can get another deal at 30. It would not be for record setting money at that point.

One thing Sanchez will learn is if he gets off to hot start the Twins fans will love him and even if he fades they will look at the hot start as what might be. If he gets off to slow start fans will get on him for his lack of offense. I am not sold on him as a DH or backup catcher, but he has shown he may be something and will trust our coaches to help him get back to what he was.