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Trov

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Everything posted by Trov

  1. Trov
    I find the premise that a mid-rotation vet arm is inherently better than a rookie would be. Yes, they have track records, but that never means success going forward, just longer track to look at. You never know what the vet pitcher will actually do, sometimes they do better than expected, or they do much worse. The assumption that they will do as projected and a rookie will be worse because they have less to work off of to me is a poor way to build a team. At some point the rookies need to play. Maybe all the people that expect the rotation to fail will be right, but maybe they will be wrong. We are all just speculators based on limited information as outsiders to the organization. The team still may make a trade or sign one of the few left. I hope all the posters remember how much money the they wanted the Twins to put into some of the pitchers this year and look in two years how they would feel having many of the guys that signed on the same contracts. I would bet they would look back and say hmm maybe it was good not to sign them.
  2. Trov
    First, no player should be non-tradable, for the right price. Part of the article talks about his value will not be there to trade, and if true then of course you do not trade him. You should never trade someone when value is down, when it could go up, just because you may have depth. Prospects change in value all the time, if you are not getting what you feel is fair value you never just dump a guy. If you do get what you feel is a good value then go with the trade, but it should make sense. I agree you do not trade him for a 1 year controlled pitcher that is not as good as Berrios. I do not see any way the Twins trade him in off-season, unless a deal for a young good team controlled MLB pitcher is involved. I find that unlikely. Second, part of the article address that he has shown he cannot be a SS at the pro level after 1 year of pro ball. Maybe the writer knows more than me, or maybe they are just looking at the fact he split time between SS and CF and at SS his fielding percent was not good. However, splitting time does not tell the whole story, although organizations want to develop players, the managers are also want to win and show they can win. For the Twins at AA they had much older Palacios, who is known for his fielding, and was holding his own with the bat this year. That means the manager had to decided help develop Martin at SS who was having struggles, over Palacios or put Martin in CF. I do not know the situation in Toronto AA team if it was similar or not. Regardless, the organization and work with him in ST and during the season to see if he can be a SS. I do not know if it was a throwing issue, or letting balls through legs that led to errors. Not all errors are created equal. If a SS makes a stop in the hole because of good range and makes a throw that gets past the 1b allowing the runner to advance, making the play an hit with an error, that is very different than a routine grounder let through the legs. I am not saying he will stay at SS, but to use a single pro season to say no way will he stick there to me is jumping the gun. All that being said, I think he still should be kept around to either regain value, not that I think he lost much, and to be utility guy that will fill in half the year for when Buck gets injured each year. Martin's OBP is elite which always plays. Sure, he lacks the power some people want, but that may increase as he hits his prime, but his ability to take walks rarely is taught this far into a career and rarely goes away.
  3. Trov
    Who will be back up CF when Buxton goes on IL? We know he will miss half the season so we better have a plan for that. I think that really needs to be addressed. Expecting Buck to play a full season is the definition of insanity. I do not care how much you pay him, you need to plan for his days in the trainer room and rehabbing down in FL or in St. Paul.
  4. Trov
    Kiriloff was encouraging because he was hitting the ball hard and all over the field. He started to get hits to land when he hurt his wrist, which eventually required surgery. I believe that accounts for much of his drop off. I have little worry for him. Larnach on the other hand he seems to not have much excuse other than failing to adjust to pitching. He worries me if he does not make the adjustments of how MLB pitchers will pitch to him. Hopefully a new year he has a new mind set. Gordan did what he always does, starts off a new level very slow but gets better over time. I still hope he gets an actual shot to show what he can do in regular time. He has always been slow to adjust to new level of competition. Jax strikes me as future pen guy. Limit his pitch mix and let him go all out for shorter period I think will work best for him. Ober I am excited about as he got better over time, which is always a sign of improving. Ryan seemed good right away and I am excited for him too. I do expect some regression but he has the confidence for sure. Celentio was pushed due to injuries and never would have played otherwise. Hopefully he can develop into either a trade piece, a 4th outfielder, or the fill in for Buck when he gets injured.
  5. Trov
    I would disagree with this comment. You do have subjective terms like very rare, but I could point to many teams that have gone deep with out an "Ace" and many teams that had several "Aces" and failed to get past first round. Lets just look at Twins, for years we had one of best pitchers in baseball in Santana, but did we win a playoff round, even when he gets 2 starts. However, when we faced the A's in the money ball season they had 3 very good starters and we had Radke, only 1 year of his career did he get a cy young vote, not really ace level. We had Rick Reed, Eric Milton, and Joe Mays. Not an Ace in the group. Look at Braves this year, Max Fried would be only guy going into year you would call an Ace and he is not top of list, the others were jouryman and two unproven rookies. Look at Dodgers for years losing with Kershaw. Yes, there are years the "Ace" carries a team through playoffs, but not always, and recently some teams have won the bullpen games in the playoffs to. Point is, having an ace does no mean wins in playoffs, just as not having one means losses.
  6. Trov
    Bullpens are volatile from year to year, and really from week to week. Very few guys are lights out all the time and really it comes down to when they pitch bad and how long, and how bad it is. I believe you need a good pen, but I also believe it is hard to project how people will do in the pen. Normally failed starters will do well in the pen. Unless you are a huge velo guy right away, it is bad to be slotted as a pen guy once you join organization.
  7. Trov
    Every year every team hopes their pitchers pan out for the year. You go into the year expecting health and performance even for vets. Lets say we go out and sign the top FA left on the board, or even go back and sign the top that was out there. We still have to hope they stay healthy and pitch to the level they have in the past. There are many times the vet you are counting on does not perform and you go to someone else.
  8. Trov
    Some luck may have played a role to get Dobnak the playoff start once he was on the roster, but luck did not get him on the roster, and luck did not keep him on the roster. He made his way up the ladder to earn his spot at the MLB level. There was a number of other pitchers in our organization. It is not like every other pitcher in the organization had not chance. To say it was all luck that Dobnak made it to the majors and that he started the playoff game takes away from him working his way up the organization.
  9. Trov
    Santana's contract is one of many vets that get long term deal that is very lopsided to the player. He is not the exception but a common outcome. Just look at many of the recent long term deals, most of the time 1 or 2 years are good for the player, the rest are either injuries, or poor play. There are the few that actually play to the value of the contract for most of it.
  10. Trov
    I keep reading comments about how if Twins do not go out and sign big FA starter we will be terrible going with, unproven pitchers. I am not saying we should expect much from them, but in 2019 Cleveland leaned heavy on 3 unproven pitchers. Entering the season two of their top pitchers, Kluber and Carrasco preformed poorly overall and health limited them. This required they had to go to backup options their less experienced guys. Beiber, Pleasak, Civale all stepped up, each were all 24 and only Beiber had any MLB experience. Bauer and Clevenger helped carry the main load, until Bauer was traded mid-season. The commenters keep saying without proven starters no way will Twins compete, and maybe that will hold true, but Cleveland showed they did not need a full slate of established vets to win. Players need to get a chance at some point. Sure, it is not a perfect comparison because Clevenger had great year, and Bauer was decent so they were leaning on the guys to be back of rotation parts for half the year. The point I am making is to say no way can you trust young guys to come in and perform is not always the case.
  11. Trov
    I agree, he was still under the same requirements of the rule 5 draft even with the trade. Had we sent him down he would have been offered back to original team he was taken from. I do not recall who did take him and trade him but I am sure their fans do not talk about how great of a rule 5 pick they made. Most likely it was how big of bone head decision not to keep him as the pick. In NBA draft day trades do not get ratified until after the draft so when a team trades a pick, the team trading away the pick, picks for the receiving team, but everyone knows who is actually making the pick.
  12. Trov
    I personally think the pitching in the system is a good thing. I know many believe we cannot go into next year with so many untested guys, but at some point they need to be tested. They are all starting to get into mid-20's which is when you really want to know what you have. I say give them a shot, see what you have and if you feel you need go out and trade mid-season for someone. I am never a fan of long term deals on any age pitcher but even more so on a 30 ish pitcher. I know many want to spend everything you can to fill the rotation, but that does not guarantee they will live up to the money you throw at them. Pitchers are so volitile and one injury can derail a great career. Sometimes they just lose some velo and never learn how to adjust to that. Very few big time pitching deals do you look back and say that was a good deal for the team, normally the pitcher lives up to the deal for 1 to 3 years then the last few are very overpaid and you are stuck paying a guy that may be pitching out of your pen, but you just keep hoping they find the old stuff and getting rocked while they cash huge pay checks. Also, having the top pitchers in the league does not mean we will win anything, it only helps. I have always been have a good floor and talent across the staff, not just a few top arms because they only pitch so often.
  13. Trov
    Gore could be a guy that breaks out. He would not be the first SS turned pitcher, some make it some do not. The fact that he is older means not much prospect left in him, but it also means his arm has not had thousands of pitches thrown over his career and maybe could hold up later. Not saying I am expecting much, but you never know.
  14. Trov
    I just wanted to comment on the trade aspect. I find the value of corner OF very low. Unless they are top hitter and fielder. If they are just a good hitter or good fielder they are easy to find replacements. Of course elite hitters have value, but you are not trading them away unless you have several elite hitters in those spots. Even then, you can normally use them as DH or 1B to get their bat in the line up. They can be part of deals, but I personally do not think corner OF should be part of a deal unless they are elite, and then you are not trading them unless you are selling.
  15. Trov
    Palacios is less of a prospect and just a possible player for a couple of years. He is entering his prime and could have a few good years at MLB level if given a shot, but you should not expect him to play too many years. I say give him a shot see what he can do. He may be a couple year stop gap, and if impresses enough some team might want him via trade if we have a SS ready to go.
  16. Trov
    Of other note, both Bert and Brad are known for giving up a ton of HR. They both were great, because they limited runners on base when they gave up those HR. I remember Brad was in a commercial because of the amount he gave up.
  17. Trov
    If team is willing to take a gamble and no one in rule 5 jumps out at the them it may be worth that. You get the rehab year to decide what you think of him, then he either gets a shot or you offer back, which Twins may not want to take him if health may be an issue. The big issue is having to have him use up a 40 man spot in offseason with nothing to work off of other than what he did during rehab, and that is a big risk.
  18. Trov
    The article asks if he will start the season at MLB level. Unless there is a trade or injury, I would say no. I would not move someone just to make room for him. Yes, he had a great year last year in minors, but do we know he will replicate it, let alone at the majors? Many times players have a break out year then regress, not saying he will, but it is not like he was a number 1 prospect and we were just waiting for it to all click. At some point there will be injury to one of our infielders and then he will get his shot. If there is a trade to be had that makes room, cool, but you should not just ship someone away because you have some depth. Remember when we dealt J.J. Hardy because we thought we had someone to replace him? We got crap in return and his replacement was terrible.
  19. Trov

    Danny Duffy for the Twins.

    Trov commented on Greglw3's blog entry in Greg Allen

    Teams have to be able to talk to each other during the lock out. They will have to decided on a CBA to end it. Manfred is only the voice from the teams, but the teams owners need to vote. They clearly would be able to discuss trades and the like as well. They can trade and sign minor league guys that are not on 40 man rosters as well because they are not MLBPA people. The lockout just prevents doing business with players or doing actual trades of them, but teams can discuss frameworks of deals. My guess is when the lockout ends, you will hear many trades happen and within a few days a lot of signings. I do not expect the lockout to end until at least March, because neither side is looking at losing money until then.
  20. Trov
    I think the article should be edited from "if Buxton gets hurt" to "when Buxton gets hurt". We all know it will happen. That being said it appears we have people that could fill in the spot during that time on the 40 man roster. We will have to see if they can hold their own at the plate though. I also wonder why Kepler is being called one of most valuable trade assets. He is getting near end of prime, has never been more than an average offense guy, with a few stints of hot runs, and a top defender. I think people on here are overvaluing corner OF guys. I would say 2 years ago he would have been a top trade chip based on contract and what he did and thoughts he may grow. However, 2 years later he has regressed and not grown as hoped. I like Kepler just fine and would be fine keeping or trading, but he is not going to bring in good pitching. He will bring in a guy from a team rebuilding because Kepler would not be there once rebuild is done. He will not bring in someone from a team ready to win now because those teams will not give up MLB ready pitching because they will need it to win now. Maybe, he could bring in a near ready prospect from a team that has super depth and ready to win now. He could be part of a deal but would not be the main piece coming from Twins for any MLB ready starters.
  21. Trov
    Baseball is and has always been a game of adjustments. Many players when they come up without much scouting will get fastballs. Then as they show they can hit them breaking balls will start to come more often until they show they can either hit them, or stay off of them. At-bats are like mini chess matches. Pro hitters can hit just about any pitch if they know it is coming. Pitchers will always try to keep them off balance and not let them know what is coming. If he can either learn to stay off off the non-fastballs or have a better mind of how to attack non-fastballs that are in the zone. Really much of it is figuring out how he is being pitched and try to sit on a pitch you expect. It took Buck several years to reach his offense potential, give Larnach some time.
  22. Trov
    The big question is what will Rondon be looking for. A big red flag for me is that he was not given a QO. To me that means Sox were worried he would take it and they would have to pay him 18 mil for 1 year. Why would Sox be worried about 18 mil for 1 year on a guy that was on way to possible Cy Young Award? I think there is a lot more to the injury than we all know, else he would have been no brainer for QO.
  23. Trov
    Sabato has been someone I was following. I was not a fan of the pick when we made it, mainly because I am not a fan of bat only guys in first round unless they are super elite. When Sabato started off so poor, I wanted to know more about his numbers. His OBP was high but average and slugging low. Numbers do not tell the full story. I wondered is it FGL issue, which is know for sapping power, was it not being aggressive, was it not getting much to swing at? Then they moved him up and he had a great stint. Is that who we should be expecting or was it short sample in new league without facing him before? The walk rate is encouraging and hopefully he is not taking good pitches to swing at just to work the count. I am hoping he does break out and forces the Twins to move him up to AA quickly and maybe even end year in St. Paul.
  24. Trov
    SS is a position similar to catcher. Very rarely will you have a top defense guy that can also hit elite. You normally need to find the balance between offense and defense. Personally, I would let Martin and Lewis fight it out for SS in whatever spring training looks like.
  25. Trov
    I agree with this. First, I have not heard much on a floor, and I cannot see the owners agree to a floor without a cap of some kind. In other leagues the floor has a cap and both are established based on revenue. First, I know the writer just threw out 100 for a number, but I agree it would be no where near that, at least not out the gate. That would force some teams to spend a ton on lower level FA as many higher ones have signed and the teams with that low of payroll are not going to be signing correa just because they have to spend the money, unless he 100% going after most money. I agree most lower teams would then lock up their younger guys to front loaded contracts to comply if they needed to act right away, and not take on bad vet contracts, unless the offers were good enough. Second, I would take Padres off list, because I do not think they are over the tax number yet. Sure would they love to save some money and dump those bad contracts yes, but they are not giving up their top prospects to do it. Unless they had plans to sign a top FA by cutting those contracts, but I doubt that is their idea. The Mets may want to cut some money for the Tax but if they really had that in mind they would not have signed who they did this year already. Sure, if Twins came and said we will take Cano off your hands, maybe throw in Bonilla, Mets may give up a mid-level guy but not top prospects. I like the outside the box thinking on this, but I highly doubt any team will give up a top prospect or good young players just to dump some bad contracts. Unless the CBA forces their hand to do so for some reason, but again, I highly doubt any major changes to a floor, cap, or tax level would go into full affect but would go in slowly over the next couple of years.
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