Trov

First, he did not blow a save over the weekend, he did take the loss in his second inning of extra innings because Lopez blew the save putting it to extra innings. He has blown a lot of saves, and giving up way too many HR to pitch in high leverage situations right now. However, he still has good stuff overall and I would not look to DFA him, just keep his high leverage situations to a minimum. You point out WPA, and the guy we traded away has a lower WPA with a -0.9 to Pagan is -0.7. Lopez our new closer has -0.5 for us so far, very small sample with us, but he has blown 2 saves for us in 4 chances. I like the WPA stat because it takes leverage into account. Pagan has been taken out of high leverage for awhile now, but over the weekend he had to go out in the extra innings for 2 innings because we burned through our high leverage guys that blew the save.

For most part I would agree, but I am sure if we were asked last year if we would sign Correa to a deal everyone would say no way no how. Yes, last year was an interesting off-season that most likely led to the deal, but Correa was not given the contract he wanted, so he signed the "pillow deal". Judge turned down big deal to bet on himself, but will people pay what he is asking? I do not believe any will be signed by Twins, but we did shock everyone with the Correa deal.

First, sorry for the misspelling. Second, my post was not an attack on Rodgers at all, but pointing out even those that are considered good, have stints of poor play. I have for years talk about in relief pitchers you can try to argue luck all you want, but at some point you need to look at results. I mean Duran gave up a HR in LA that according to broadcast would have been a HR only in that park, that in any other park would have been an out on the track or in front of track. At Target Field most likely not even on the track. Was that bad luck because he was in a stadium that was smaller in that spot than every other ballpark? FIP would say no, he gave up a HR and luck had nothing to do with it, even if every other ball park it is an out. Also, for Rogers, to my knowledge FIP does not account for HBP, at least the formula I have seen it does not, he has hit 8 guys this year. Rogers may have elite stuff per the numbers you site, but he still has blown 7 saves in 35 chances, and it has been 7 blown out of his last 18 chances. I am not discounting he had a dominate first 2 months, but since then he lost closer job and has been good for a total -.9 wins probability added on the season, which reflects his high leverage outings. If you look at his career, where you would argue he is getting unlucky, he has totaled -2.3 WPA, since end of 2019. He did have positive 0.7 2021. His FIP and ERA got out of whack in 2020. Again, the purpose of my post was not to attack Rogers, I had issues with him blowing saves, holds, and losing games when tied in 2020, and people said he was getting bad luck, pitching back to back days and many other excuses. Point was, he has bad stretches, and he has had a bad stretch since June really. He is not the worst in the league and would be more than happy to pitch with Twins over Pagan, but for whatever reason he is not doing well as of late. Maybe luck, maybe not. He is giving up a hard hit rate of 40.3% this year, which is only a little above his career average of 38.7% and line drives are actually below his career average. Maybe he is just having a long run of bad luck, but he is not getting outs with enough regularity. Maybe he bounces back, I am not saying he is cooked. I am pointing out that if his season had flipped his start to now, our view of him would be very different. All pen guys are subject to SSS and what have you done lately. Maybe they get longer leash if it appears to be more luck than anything else, but results are all that really matters.

Coming into the season we thought we had a closer, or some did, in Taylor Rodgers. The Twins pulled of the day 1 trade flipping him for Pagan and Paddock basically. Others were involved but they were all current MLB players changing right before season started. At first, both Rodgers and Pagan had success, but Pagan was getting by with giving up a ton of walks and some hard contact. There was many fans upset because Rodgers through 20 gams was nothing short of amazing. Giving up a run, striking out about a runner per inning, and walking only 4, but hitting 3 batters as well. He was still 17 of 17 in saves. Meanwhile, Pagan started to struggle, Paddock got put on IL with Tommy John. The trade was beginning to look very bad for the Twins, despite still years of control. Also, other pen pitchers for Twins were doing poorly like Tyler Duffey. It was clear we needed a trade and looked like we should be regretting our early trade. However, since that first 20 games for Rodgers he has been pretty bad, and by WAR worse than Duffey, but most likely in part because he is in higher leverage situations too. Since the first 20 games Rodgers has jumped from a 0.44 ERA to a 5.00. He has converted 11 more saves, but blew 7 saves, not a very good conversion rate. His FIP has not not jumped in line with his ERA, so some would say he is getting unlucky, but he has been similar in past seasons having ERA much higher than FIP since 2019 season. That is a long streak of bad luck, and fact is he is giving up runs as a late inning guy. He got demoted from closer, and traded for a expected upgraded, in Josh Hader. On the Twins front we cut Duffey and traded for Michael Fulmer and Jorge Lopez. Both were upgrades to what we had, but Lopez has blown 2 saves so far, and Fulmer took loss against Dodgers. Pagan got lucky the other day against Angels for 1 inning, but then quickly gave up the walk of HR. The point I am making is we cannot ever predict how a pen will do. Maybe we win a game or two more if we had not traded Rodgers, but assuming he progressed same way with Twins we would be calling for him to be cut as well. Maybe we do not make the trade for Lopez, maybe that would have been a good thing. I have long said you can never expect a pen guy to be dominate all the time. They will all have bad stretches, you just hope it does not cost you games. I am not addressing the move of Rodgers at all, so please lets not rehash those comments. I am just saying you never know what the pen guy will do until they get out there and to expect they will bounce back or regress is not something you should expect.

Julien may get moved up to AAA after AA season is over. With this close to end of season organizations tend to look to not make too many moves unless they have to. I would agree he is ready to move up at the plate, but as he would not be making the MLB this year does it make much of a difference today, next month, or next year to be in AAA? In terms of defense he has played all year at 2b or dh, only 18 games in LF last year. From everything I read on him is his defense is what will keep him from being regular starter, unless his bat is super elite he may be settling into 1b/DH. They may look back to LF if there is a spot there in future, but that could be addressed more in off-season. Although his defense at 2b on paper does not look to be terrible this year so maybe he has made improvements. Polonco is close to end of his contract so 2nd base is not as locked up as it may seem. Overall, I am sure it will work itself out.

One thing the data does not have is games not played by Buxton and games played as DH, limiting his value. Buxton has only played 54 games in CF, with only 48 started, and 32 games at DH, 31 he started. So he has not been on the IL, but he sure has been impacted by his injury in lack of games in CF and possibly reduction in output. He has put up big power numbers, but his is not putting up the numbers he did last year. Looks like last year might have been the outlier year of his career in his contract year. Hopefully next year can at least stay in CF most of the time.

All three are easy calls. Bundy would be a little harder if we did not have a lot of possible depth and he was more consistent. Sano is out and so is Bundy. Gray easy pick up.

This was the ultimate team loss. We left so many on base that if we could have got 1 hit in many cases we could have broke game open. Beyond that there was some terrible at bats watching some guys swing at ball four near their eyes. Then late in the game we had some good defense but some bad defense as well. I mainly do not understand why Gordon was not much closer to the line. The left hand hitter looked like a slap hitter to me, and you add in fact that Lopez throws heat. No way was he going to pull the ball in the air to right. Everyone should have been swung way over, but for some reason Gordon was way off the line making him needing to dive. Still if we get one hit with runners in scoring position we win the game and not put in that position.

I wonder where Julien on national prospect rankings after this year. He was never highly touted but has done nothing but hit and shown good eye at plate walking nearly as much as striking out. His numbers are slightly better this year than last year overall too. I think what is hurting his prospect ranking is one he was never high on people lists, but two his lack of defense. I is at 2nd right now and appears to not be too solid there even. He is looking like possible low defense high offense 2nd base or shift to 1B. He has DH 14 times at AA. His bat will get him to MLB it looks like, but his lack of defense may limit his impact. However, if he can hit like he has at the MLB level, they will find a spot for him. May make debut next year.

Interesting take on prospect rankings. You talk about CES as a guy that gave hope, assuming because his offense numbers, and attack Noah Miller, because his offense numbers not as good. What I draw from your determination on prospects is you only care what their offense output is and do not care about anything else that will go into it. Like age, defensive position, how well they can play defense, projection based on. I bet going back to 2019 you most likely said Jose Miranda was not a prospect and had no hope of being anything, being his slash numbers were basically the same as Noah Miller. Miranda was not high on rankings, but he developed. Much of prospect ranking is projection, not where they are right now. CES is not highly ranked by national rankings. In part, he is older so less projection there, and many worry when he faces better pitching he will strike out at way to high of rate. I personally have not watched, unlike the scouts that actually rank him, not sure if you have. However, the book on him is he will chase too much, and many expect when he faces better pitching that will have less mistakes he will not do as well. Maybe he proves them wrong. Prospect ranks are subjective and many times people get them wrong. However, to say Miller is destined for utility guy at best when he is only 19 in A ball right now may be a little premature as well. Maybe you are right, but only time will tell. Personally though, I was not big on CES because he has no defense and I have seen too many college bats tear up lower minors only to never make majors because in AAA they face good pitching and their holes are exposed. Maybe they get a cup of coffee or something at majors but again holes get exposed.

I would say Canterino worries me the most. Not because it is TJ, as many guys recover from it, but he has had many arm issues and Rice guys have history of that. Maybe he comes back and does just fine, but he will start getting passed up on depth charts and will need to prove himself much faster before he starts getting bounced around the league on waiver claims. Lewis will be given every chance to show he is back, and as long as he can hit there will be a place for him. Rodriguez is still very young and will be given plenty of time to recover too. Also he will be known for the bat as well and at minimum there is the DH roll he can find if he can keep swinging.

I remember when he was drafted the big flag was he came from Rice, and they are known to burn their pitchers. Guess he is just another Rice pitcher that will continue to have issues in pros. I do not know why any pitcher would go to Rice knowing their history.

One thing I would point out is not every year is the same teams in the top 8 of payroll, or same in bottom 8. There are a few mainstays of course, but you point out San Diago who just a few years ago was a bottom 8 payroll, and Houston like a decade ago was as well. Which in part leads to your point, that what happens is teams decide they cannot compete at some point and cut payroll and "tank" for a few years and keep their top prospects in the minors saving service time, until they are ready to make a big push. Teams like Cubs and Houston have proved it worked to get a ship so others have copied. Even when they are bigger market teams they still may go this path. It is not always the top paying teams that win the ship, but yes they do generally make the playoffs over the lower paying teams. However, sometimes the top paying teams, Angels, get it wrong, and lower paying teams, Rays get it right. I am not saying the system is not broken, because it basically is, but unlike NBA one player does not swing a team from loser to winner. It takes a full squad, and that is where smarter higher spend of some teams gives them huge advantage, because if they guess wrong on 1 guy they can try again, but if lower market teams guess wrong, they get set back for years.

No they do not have too much starting pitching. Yes, they have more than 5 but no team ever just uses 5. Some if needed could get transitioned to pen roll, where many starters end up excelling. Some will get injured, and some could get traded. There may be a 40 man roster crunch and you may lose one or two through waivers, but none of the ones you may lose are top of rotation guys. Smeltzer will be DFA. Despite having a decent run, he was getting by with smoke and mirrors. He has high chance of passing through waivers and if not, no huge deal. Overall it will work itself out. Maybe the players will not be as happy about spending time in minors until injuries give them starts, or being in pen, but such is the nature of the game.

If he continues to struggle the rest of the season like he has over last few weeks, then maybe he opts in next year, but his numbers are still very good at a position of high need. I would still expect a team willing to give up long term deal if he bounces back to normal the rest of the year. Maybe he opts in, and if he does I will not be upset at all.

Brooks Lee is expected to be a quick mover through the system. In part why Steer was even easier to be traded. Steer was blocked at MLB by guys, and had someone like Lee most likely nipping at his heels. I bet he starts next season in AA.

Nick is doing what the average drafted player you want from them. Of course with the high draft status you want him to be an all-star, but he has the look of being a MLB player for several years. Will he be a superstar? Doubtful. However, he should be a starter for someone, or at minimum a utility guy. I would agree if he was not drafted 5th overall we would be very happy with what he is doing. However, look at the number 1 and 2 drafted in that draft. One did not sign, medicals, but even after neither have made MLB and not likely to. Many after him have not made the majors either. Could we have done better, sure, Trea Turner was there, personally he was who I wanted them to draft, but we are at least getting some MLB value from our player and we could be getting none. He is 26, and could have a good 4 or 5 MLB seasons. Maybe more. Some of the best MLB guys did not break into the league until then. It is rare, and do not expect it, but you never know. Either way he can help us, or now that he has shown he has value he could be traded if needed.

First, the Twins only go to a long relief roll if game is way out of hand early on. Then they will generally burn the end of pen guy for 2 to 3 innings, but rarely will they look to have a guy pitch more than that out of the pen. Could Smeltzer be a long relief guy sure, but Twins do not like to have "long" relief guys unless you are losing big. Smeltzer walks too many guys and gives up way too many HR to be a high leverage pen arm, so you really only want him to come in when losing big. I would not want to waste a pen spot on a guy you only want to through out there when losing big.

I would not look to have Duran the "fireman" roll. He can strike guys out at high rate and rarely walks, but he also is not always having clean 123 innings. He seems to give up a week single a lot of times, which if you need to put out a fire you do not want that. I think Twins will keep putting him out there to start innings. I would agree using him against heart of lineup before 8th may be good idea than just save for 8th.

If it helps him stay on the field good for him. I wonder why they did not look into this last surgery or why it just started to be an issue in his early 20's. My guess his bone did not get longer just this past year, I could be wrong not a doctor or anything. Either way I hope all the luck to him on his recovery.

Personally I am happy with the deals. They brought in 2 controllable pitchers, a rental pen arm, and a backup catcher, all without giving up any "top" prospects that are near MLB ready. Either Lopez or Mahle could be dealt before their contracts end if we wanted to, which would soften any lost prospects, or we use them all next year for another hopeful playoff run. Steer plays a position that is not a need for a couple of years, barring injuries of course, but there are others that can fill in. The pitchers are all a couple of years from being ready, and we never know how would pan out, but we have a lot of depth in the lower minors that was going to get figured out at one point. None of them are highly touted but doing well. CES may be the biggest peice going out, but he is mainly a bat, and again at position not of major need right now. I also have concerns his bat will not carry in the higher levels, which is why he is also not a top prospect because of fear his chase rate will get exploited as he faces better pitching. These are the types of deals I was hoping would be made. Improve the team, but do not sell the farm or your future.

I am greatly concerned with his wrist, being that our only reports are that no additional surgery will be helpful. I was hopeful when he came back and was hitting the ball hard he had learned to play through it, but looks like might be something to haunt him rest of career.

Overall I like this deal. He still has years of control and can be flipped later on like we did with Rogers or Brewers did with Hader to get some return back if we need to. That is why years of control is so important. We did not give up anyone that will hurt us over the next 2 to 3 years either.

I think he should just opt out of the All star game. Let a replacement in. I am sure he still gets what ever bonus if any for getting selected. He does not need to take any swings or run down any fly balls or run bases in this game. I am not for putting on IL as they would have already if they felt it was best thing to do, but to play in all star game makes no sense if he can only play 2 out of 3 games for us.

A question to add, some players in recent years have started some celebrations, such as watching the big HR go out, bat flips, or saying things to opposing team. This has led to some fans loving the celebrations, but others saying it is classless and violates "unwritten" rules of celebrating and to "act like you have been there before", whatever that means. Personally, I find the calibrations entertaining. I find the players and fans that are against them have poor complaints. If a team hits a walk of hit, the whole dug out comes out to celebrate, even in low meaning games, but no one gives the players crap for that. Maybe if players did a little more entertaining celebrations more fans would watch. NFL changed their celebrations rule and I find it more entertaining. These are adults, we do not need to worry if their feelings will get hurt, if you do not want to see a celebration, do not let the opposing team do something to celebrate.