Trov

If you can get him for very low level prospect I would take a flier on him that he can keep it going rest of year, but nothing too much. You cannot have too much pitching, but do not over pay for SSS. He can bust just as quickly.

Yeah I posted several times if you look at long term deals for pitchers signed between 29 and 31, most work out for about 1 to 2 years, but anything after that has huge drop off and a lot of bad dead money. I am all for the Twins looking to spend big for 2 or 3 year deals, but beyond that you are stuck running a bad pitcher out there, or pay them to not pitch for you.

That is true, however, what do you do when you bring in a guy with another year of control for next year, and all those guys come back on 40 man roster next year? Sure Bundy and Archer will be off, but you have like 8 or 9 guys all that could be starters. We can trade some away, but when teams know you are trading from depth they will be less likely to give you fair value back.

For me, I agree that having a pipeline is the best way to go, as most FA are at the tail end of output, unless they are HOF bound. I would much rather trade a prospect for a guy on the right side of 30 than sign a guy with 3 or 4 dead years of vastly overpaid years, that you feel you need to keep marching them out because of how much they are paid. The question is, which prospect, and how much do you like your pipeline. White Sox made a terrible trade when they brought in James Shields, who was 34 at time of trade for top prospect Tatis Jr. Sox had depth at SS and 3b so they felt they could make that traded, but looking back it was terrible call. I would never give up a top prospect for a 34 year old guy on big contract, unless they are HOF bound.

I have not done a deep dive on trades, but I would bet there is a mixed bag over the years. Some of the vet starters help out, some do not, and some the prospect becomes huge, and some do not. For example, we got Odo, and the player we traded came back to us in minor league free agent. However, White Sox sure made the wrong call trading for James Shields when they gave away Tatis Jr. for him. James was 34 when they traded for him, so as pointed out many pitchers, outside of future HOF really fall off after 32. Tatis already has much more WAR than what Shields gave Sox. If you go back to 1987, a trade that Tigers made really is looked at as a loss for Tigers. They traded for Doyle Alexander, who in 1987 went 9-0 with a 1.53 ERA down stretch for Tigers, 88 and 89 was not nearly as good. He helped Tigers win division and was supposed to beat Twins in ALCS, but we won that one. At the time bringing in Alexander on short term rental looked good in 87, even if they lost in playoffs, but they gave up future HOF John Smoltz. Now, I do not think Montas is the difference between us making playoffs and not, and if we do, I do not know if he would be the reason we advance in playoffs. If we knew he would get us a WS, I give up Lewis for sure. He may be a future HOF, doubtful it would be full career with us, but more like 6 years, we do not know if we would win any WS in that time. Look at Mike Trout, he is best to play the game in a very long time, and he has had no post season wins, most of the time they never make it. I bet all Angel fans looking back would have said trade him for a WS they would take it now, but at the time no way would they have traded him.

There was a lot of talent in the free agent market for pitching this past off-season. Many Twins fans wanted the Twins to make a big bold move. Of course a couple of the top guys were not going to even listen to Twins. The like of Scherzer, Verlander, and Kershaw were not coming here. There were several though that we could have tried to entice, and many were discussed throughout the off season. I just wanted to take a quick look at some of them and see how some were doing. Keep in mind some of these guys were on one year prove it deals, and some signed to long term deals. First, Dylan Bundy, a one year prove it deal. He started off well, but since has not done well and has a -0.4 WAR. If we did not have a full 5 man rotation on injured list, he may have been sent walking by now. Clearly there may have been better options. Robbie Ray was a top get, but he has not been living up to his big contract so far. He has started out as a -0.3 WAR while earning 21 mil this year and still has several years left. He made career marks last year, and cashed in. Maybe he regains what last year was, but his career does not suggest he will. Seattle may be regretting the next 5 years from this deal, time will tell. Eduardo Rodriguez signed with Detroit, on a 5 year deal. He has been off to a -0,5 WAR, and currently injured. Maybe he bounces back as still early, but not off to a good start. Also, his team has not been good either. Marcus Strotman signed 3 years with the Cubs. He has been at an even WAR, with up and down starts all year. Jon Gray signed 4 year deal with Texas, who has managed to sign some starters in recent years, then flipping for prospects, ala Lynn and Gibson, both of which did great in Texas. Gray is off to a 0.3 WAR, Will be interesting to see how he trends though. Kevin Gausman cashed in on a 5 year deal with Toronto. He is off to a good start of that contract, at a 1.4 WAR. He had a rough start against Twins, but that was par for the course for him against Twins. So far he is earning his contract of 21 mil a year. Now to some of the shorter term contracts. Three with SF, 1 returned. Carlos Rodon was not offered QO, which to me rose red flags. He signed a prove it deal with SF and got off to great start posting a 1.4 WAR, but if you look at May numbers he may be regressing a bit, not as bad as what Bundy is doing for us, but maybe not a great of a signing as he appeared for SF. Alex Cobb has a -0.4 WAR so far on his 2 year deal going to SF. He is not showing any signs of improving at this point either. Anthony DeSclafini was a breakout with SF last year. He signed 3 year deal with SF. He is off to a -0.1 WAR and is currently injured, and is on 60 day IL right now. Not a great start to his 3 year deal. Two flier deals: Noah Syndergaard is off to a 0.6 WAR but his K-rate is down a ton compared to career. Maybe he is learning to pitch different, or maybe he will start to get blown u soon. He was just on 1 year deal but at 21 Mil. However, so far looks like would have been a good deal for the Twins to try and be in on, if there was any interest from Noah. Michael Wacha on a 1 year deal with Boston for 7 mil. He was always a guy that showed possible top end stuff, but never stayed healthy averaging about 100 innings per season. His last two years were not good either. However, he has come out as the early top flier signing at a 2.0 WAR. However, deeper look thinks he is up for some regression, with a BABIP of .188 compared to career .300. He has decreased hard hit rate but his K rate is down and walk rate career average. He may be getting a little lucky early on, or maybe he figured out something at his age. Really, the point of the post is to show how much of a crap shoot signing FA pitchers are. The three guys mentioned we were even on their radar, 2 resigned with team, they are off to their HOF self and Kershaw is on IL though. Wacha was much like Bundy a flier, and he may be a great get, or he may flame out as year goes on. Of course going back we wish we did Wacha over Bundy, but sure Wacha was not on many must sign lists. On the long term deals, only Gausman has lived up to is so far. Rodon has done well on his prove it deal so far, but regressing after a super hot start. Overall, not a lot of the higher end starting pitching FA have got off to great starts of their deals. Hard to predict the future with them, and as we have shown you need like 8 to 10 possible starters now a days anyways.

I did say that outside of TD he was not as high on most lists. MLB had him ranked at like 17 or 18. They had Steer at 9. The three pitchers were not in top 30, but they are all college pitchers. I would agree Festa might be a bigger jump as he was not on any lists and he is same age as low and and now below age in high A. The other two, are both 24 which are a little old, in my opinion to be high prospects at their levels they are in. Rodriguez is still just 19 so still much younger than the average low A player and he is owning the league. Because of his age and how he is doing against similar age comp. Buck did not put up these numbers at same level at same age, and he was a top prospect from the jump. Buck's numbers were close to what Rodriguez is doing, but not as good. I do get Buck was faster and better defender so that goes into it, but just on the offense side I am think Rodriguez should be in top 5 at mid season. I will admit, I do not take as much time looking into all of it though.

He may be striking out at a high percentage, but he walking at an even better percentage, which to me means the K rate is not a huge issue because he is not just going up chasing. Of course if he could cut down the K rate and keep same walk rate that would be insane. He clearly works counts and waits for his pitch, which is not common for a lot of young guys.

Who do you wish they would have signed in last 2 to 3 years as a SP? I bet if you looked up the names you wish they would have signed, outside of Cole, and Scherzer, you will not find to many names that are earning their contracts now.

Twins Daily was quick to jump on Emmanuel Rodriguez as a top 10 prospect list, MLB had him at top 20 for Twins. He is putting up a crazy good first full year in a normally pitcher friendly league. His OPS is elite for the league and really should be moving up soon in my opinion. He is walking more than striking out, but still hitting for power. He is getting on base at 495 right now, with slugging 568. Last year he struck out at same rate, but this year he is walking at over double the rate he did last year in rookie ball. He was a high end signing and COVID year slowed down his debut, but now that he is full season he is running away with being a new top prospect. I am have not seen him, but his numbers look great, and I would personally not look forward to him being dealt in any deal right now. I think he will finish year at high A break next year at high A but quick to move up to AA. He has quickly become the prospect I am most interested in watching.

I love watching him hit. Yes, he is mostly a singles hitter, and with so much about power theses days he appears to have less value. However, I would have to argue that anyone who gets on base at his rate, regardless of the power, he still has to have a lot of value. I also feel like he could get a few more extra base hits if he tried, and eventually you might see the LF play so shallow trying to snare a line drive you see him drive it over their head. Arraez looks like he can hit the ball just about where ever he wants to if he waits for his pitch. Right now he is lining so many line drives to LF past the infielders. I agree that extra base hits would be better if he could do that, but getting on base 45% of the time is crazy. Even if he is only getting a few extra base hits and no one ever scores from 2nd because OF is so shallow on him. I have a feeling he will start to look to hit over the OF head as the season goes on in those situations.

I would not full DFA him yet. I would put him in much lower leverage outings and see how are many other rotating arms can do in high leverage situations, hoping Duffy can work through his issues. He has history of having a good run, maybe he can regain it.

If he can hit at MLB anywhere close to what he is doing at AAA he will fit where ever he can. DH, 1B, OF. I would much rather run him out there as a regular DH or move him around different positions than keep running Jeffers out as DH when Sanchez catches, or having Sanchez DH every time Jeffers Catches. Alex should be better hitters than either.

I think both A's and Reds would rather have 1 good prospect in return then 3 or 4 middle of road guys. Just because a trade machine says their values are close does not mean teams would do the deal. I do think both wait for deadline and get what they think best deal is. It will be interesting on who pulls the trigger and for what.

NO WAY would Oakland trade for Kepler in any deal, unless we were giving him for cash just so they could look to flip him to someone else. Doing a Kepler and prospect 'x', for Montas is like doing just prospect 'x'. What would Oakland do with Kepler? Part the point of my post was to bring up the fact that many fans want us to make a move, but to get a top SP, we need to give up talent, and right now I believe it would take Lewis, or some younger guys with high upside minimum. Guys like Kepler, or other already late 20's guys will not get it done. Miranda could move the needle some with other packages as well. I still think both A's and Reds will be holding out asking for big to see if any team bites. They will play the game of chicken and try to make a bidding war. Some team might bite. Many felt the Jays overpaid for Berrios based on prospect values listed. I also want to remind all fans, that just because you would think some deal is a fair deal does not mean the other side agrees.

Even you feel we do not need a new starter, you can never have too much good pitching. There are a couple of pitchers on the trading block and are expected to be traded. The top prize would be Frankie Montas, with Luis Castillo as the fall back for teams. There are others out there but going to talk about these two right now. We all know Montas is going by deadline, the question will be to whom and for whom. Castillo is expected to go to. Both have 1.5 years of control now, so value is only going to go down if they are not traded this year, and both teams did full on fire sale. Montas is the number one pitcher out there, and having a good year overall. What would it take to get him, and should we give it up? I think a close comparison would be Jose Berrios, Montas is older, with same amount of years of control at the possible trade, but I would argue Montas is slightly better pitcher. One thing that concers me about Montas is his home road splits are slightly better in the pitcher park of Oakland, but not crazy different, and Berrios was much better at home over his career too. So we got a teams high hitting prospect and high pitching prospect, both in AA. I have heard some people float the trade of Montas for the same package. Would that get it done now? I do not think so. The reason I doubt Oakland would take same offer is Martin has not been amazing and most likely has dropped some down the prospect lists. My guess Oakland wants Lewis in any deal, and will hold out for him, or send Montas somewhere else. Would you give up Lewis, and a top pitching prospect? If it was in the off-season I think most would have said yes, but after seeing how Lewis regained his top prospect form, I think many would say no now. I am not saying we should or should not, but my guess to get Montas we have to give up Lewis, unless no other team is willing to come close Oakland asking price, which has reported to be very high for Montas. They know they could really wait to next off-season if really needed to and get something in return. Right if a deal was going to be struck I see Lewis and either SWR or similar pitching prospect or Lewis and Emmual Rodriguez, who appears to be flying up prospect lists. I think Castillo can be got for less, but not much. He similar has better home splits, but he has pitched in a hitters park his whole career. He has similar numbers to Montas, same age, same control and similar k rates, but Castillo slightly higher walk rates. Really they are very similar stats and either could be a great get. Castillo is coming off of injury and had late start to year. I bet Reds have a similar asking price for now as well. Would we give up Lewis for Castillo? I doubt it, but my guess that is what the Reds will be asking for. If we could get either for giving up someone like Rodriguez, who was not high on lists coming into year, but looking like he will make huge jumps, but still a couple years away, and one of our many pitching prospects, I would pull the trigger right now. If Lewis is needed for either deal to get done, I would hang up right away. With not knowing what Correa future with team looks like, most likely he walks after this year, we should expect to need Lewis for next several years, but Rodriguez is far away. I may be overvaluing him, as some rankings had him barely in our top 20 lists. Noah Miller may be someone targeted too. If Martin gets the deals done and a lower prospect I am all for that too. If Lewis is required I pass 100%. Would anyone be willing to give up Lewis in the ultimate win this year move? I do not think either makes us a favorite to win, and even if they did, nothing says they would, and passing on years of what looks like hopeful great SS play for a 1.5 year rental of a top end starter is hard to do in my opinion.

The fact he missed games because of ankle issue is an issue. That has been his biggest issue as it goes to output. The fact that we have so many other guys missing games around our infield he has not got as many games off as I think the Twins would have liked.

For pitching it looks like the best FA signing right now is who we face today, Kevin Gausman. We could have went after him, 22 mil a year for 5 years. He is having a career year, and may have some regression as season goes on. The real question is what he brings over the next 4 years. His k/9 is on career norm, but his walks are way down compared to career norms. His career walks per 9 have been 2.6, right now he is .9 this season. Will he get back to his norm? Rondon looked like he was a great signing in April for SF, then May he regressed a ton, first start in June was good, not great, 5 innings 2 runs 1 earned. Beyond those 2 the top FA pitchers we could have went after most likely have been not performing to contracts or career expectations. Robbie Ray and Eduardo Rodriguez have both been terrible this year, compared to what expectations and contracts they signed. I said all off-season, signing starting pitchers to long term deals is one of the biggest gambles you can make. All the guys mentioned may bounce back, or they may keep pitching poorly but have to get sent out there for how much money they will earn over the next several seasons. Gausman may pitch above his career averages as he ages, or he may drop off too. Predicating a pitcher one year to next is one of the hardest thing a GM can do.

I am right there with ya, there are a few that over value Rogers, and was using his quick start as a reason. Some were saying if we had him we would have even more wins, which I find unlikely, maybe 1 or 2 at most. I am worried for Rogers that he is getting overused and will fade as season goes on.

The fact they are going with Contrares and not Kirolloff clearly shows the next time Alex makes the team is they plan to have him long time, or he is not vaxed either, but thinking they want to keep Alex down until he shows long term success in AAA.

This is Rogers, he always has been this way. He will have great runs of dominate pitching, then he will have runs of terrible outings. One thing he always seemed to struggle with was overuse, his back to back day outings the second day was normally much worse. The Padres are doing the classic he is our closer and use him every save chance, and for most part he did well early on, 17 saves. 6 were 1 run saves. However, he is on pace for the most games and innings pitched he has ever done. The most he had before was 2019 of 60 games and 69 innings. 2018 he had 72 games and 68 innings. This year he is on pace for over 80 games and nearly 100 innings. Of course that may even out as the year moves on or he may get a DL stint. I still maintain that having Rogers would not make any difference in our record so far this season. Maybe 1 or 2 wins, but we do not know because he may have blown them as well, or maybe he would have blown different ones. I hope for Rogers he gets back to doing well, but I hope this stretch is showing the fans that think it was the worst trade ever made see maybe Rogers is who we thought he was, a good pen guy, but not a lights out every day closer.

I am not going to assume what he is doing now will be forever, hopefully it will be, but he did have a terrible first year. He clearly has made adjustments, but will he do it again when pitching adjusts to him? He is hitting LH pitchers very well right now, will that continue? I am happy to see his defense has improved, and he is making great contact. He should basically be a plug and play guy until he hits a slump.

He has clearly shown he can adjust to how MLB started to pitch him. That was his biggest issue last year was he could not handle breaking balls and kept hitting weak contact against them and chasing. This year he is crushing them and not chasing out of the zone. The league will adjust to him again, hopefully he stays up on that and adjusts to the league. He has the approach and swing to be a top hitting corner outfield for several years. His defense has been better this year to, at least by eye test. My quick research seems to back up the eye test too that his defense is getting better too. I am happy to see the improvements and he is hitting against lefties better than right handed, in much less at bats, but clearly can play every day no need to sit him against LF guys right now.

The thing if he was still on the team this year, some of the offseason moves may not have been made, each move affects the next. It will be interesting to see how he does against us. Will he have a bounce back start, or will he get rocked? Berrios was always a decent starter, not a true number 1 guy but he could have some great starts and we always wanted more from him. He is now getting paid like a top 20 pitcher in all of baseball. He is in his age 28 season and having his worst season of his career. Can he turn it around, sure he has always been a guy that has run of bad starts and great ones. He was likely going to be traded at some point, as no way were Twins giving him a 7 year deal like he wanted. Although the trade may not be a great win for Twins down road, I have hope, my guess they would not have got anything better before this season or certainly not during it. If he was doing this with our staff, he would be the worst starter on overall results wise. Jose did have a few good starts for sure though. We would not be talking about how we need to get rid of Jose but how we need to be patient and he will bounce back. Too many fans look at him with rose colored glasses thinking he was much more than he was, because he was the best home grown pitcher in a long time, but he was not as good as many think he was. I hope for him he turns it around, but I believe we made the trade at the right time.

First, saying a guy pitched like an 'ace' during the playoffs is not saying they are an 'ace'. Any guy can step up and pitch like an 'ace' in hindsight. Yes, having top pitching can certainly help. However, it is not required to have an 'ace'. Many times guys step up to be the top pitcher in the playoffs, and the top guys actually have bad starts too. Again this post was about defining an 'ace' to see if one is even out there. Of course if Ryan is our third best pitcher that would be better for our team. Who would argue against that? Who do you suggest they go out to get to be the 'ace'? That is part of the point of this forum.