Trov

If Larnach was healthy I bet Kirilloff would be down in AAA trying to figure out how to hit with his wrist. When I read that he had pain all off-season and had pain again this season without any new damage that can be fixed with surgery it raised huge red flags for me. Last year when he first came up the average was low, but he was hitting the ball hard all over the field. Since the wrist injury he has not had that same pop. I am very concerned he will not have that pop again, or at least not for awhile. I think he will need to go down to AAA and learn to hit with his issue. If the wrist cannot be "fixed" he will need to learn how to play with it. If he cannot he will never be a MLB player. It is sad, because he looked to have all the makings of a top hitter for years to come. However, you need your wrists to hit well. His few games back he has had weak ground ball contact for the most part. I hope he can figure it out, but if he is always in pain either he will have to learn to live with it, or retire.

The WPA stat is a bit odd. We look at it to see how they compare to other relievers. I doubt many feel Pagan has pitched all that well or added much wins probability when he walks bases loaded in 1 run games. He has finished them with saves but wow he scares me, and to see he is 22nd in WPA makes me think about that stat some.

I have always like Smith. We never did much against him in my memories serve me correct. I am sure there was a time or two where we did something. He is not someone that we will march out there day after day in high leverage, but we have used him in smart areas. He is best ground ball inducing relief guy we have. We have used him several times when a DP would get us out of a threat. He has managed to do that a few times for us. Very smart use of him in my opinion. K's can be great, but inning ending DP is always better than a 1 out K with bases loaded only to give a hit to next hitter. I think we will continue to use Smith in those we need a ground ball situation. If you notice he hardly ever comes back out for a second inning after that happens to. He does have lack of velo, but his arm angle is hard for many hitters to get used to. Very few guys throw from that angle so not used to picking up ball where he throws from. It is a bit of smoke and mirrors, but until it does not work he should keep on doing it.

I was not specifically looking ahead, but after this week the rest of the month the Twins will be playing Oakland, KC, and Detroit until June 3rd finally facing a competitive team in the Blue Jays. The rest of the month they will only have 1 currently below .500 team, of course much can change on that front over next month. After that there is no huge stretches' of good or bad teams but more of a mix. I have not looked at Cleveland or White Sox schedules but I think the Twins really need to have a lead at end of May to keep it. 19 straight games against terrible teams to end May, followed by 23 of 26 winning teams, and the 3 that are not winning teams is at Seattle, where we never do well lately. The point is we will really need to play well the next few weeks because June could be a very bad month for us. We have done fine this year against potentially good teams, the Rays and Sox, but we also lost a series against KC and both games against Dodgers. We are playing better since then I would argue. There will still be plenty of season left after June, but I would not surprised if we have a losing June so we better have a great May to stay in the lead. We have plenty of games against Cleveland in June as well so playing well against them even if we do poorly against the east teams could still keep us in front.

Donaldson may not be hitting HR there yet, but he is not a complete waste. Overall he has done better than Urshela and Sanchez. I still am happy with the trade as without it we would not have brought in Correa, even for 1 season I still like it better. I highly doubt Urshela stays the full year with the Twins and either Miranda or Lewis take over the full time 3b by all-star break.

Both Luis Gil and Huascar Ynoa have struggled this year, after having decent stints at majors last year. Neither was dominate last year but with how bad we needed starting pitching we saw how guys we traded away or let go started doing better than what we were putting out there. Similar to Badoo both are still young and can be something still in future, but maybe we were a little ahead of ourselves regretting letting them go. Wade has not played much this year at all with only 3 games played. He would still be at best our 4th OF. I always liked Wade but we just had better overall talent than he gave us. Wade just out performed what was expected last year so he looked better than what he did for a team not expected to compete. Like many have pointed out, we cannot keep everyone on the roster. Sometimes when guys get through and do well it is not that you failed to see the talent, but that you had so much at a particular position that someone had to go.

I was thinking of making a similar post today myself. I remember a few posters last year saying how much the FO missed the boat on Badoo and should have protected him. That still could be the case, but as pointed out, he is doing terrible this year and sent back down to AAA. He is still young and may have a fine career, but some on here had Badoo on his way to MVP seasons to come, replacing Buck in CF and firing the FO because of not protecting Badoo. I wish all the best for Badoo, but like you said, we need to take breath on some of these guys, both good and bad.

It is too early to know exactly what we have and what we need. Generally pitching is always a need at deadline either because of performance or injuries. Our depth at SP is already getting tested, and so far it is doing fine, but things can change quickly. Overall our pen has been fine, a few bumps, but Pagan needs to start finding some control or stop being used as a closer. Not that he is full time closer in every chance anyways. In terms of offense I am waiting for things to shake out on that front. OF we should be set if all healthy and we still have depth if not. Already have had a few guys go on DL from OF and we can at least hold our own still. SS and 2b are set barring injury. 3b and 1b are more up in the air. We have guys that could do just fine, but no one is running away with either position, but over the next couple months things can develop. DH we do not need a full time guy, and we have plenty that could fill in. Could there be someone that could help sure, but not willing to give up too much for a DH. As the season goes on I could see a line up similar to this. 1 CF Buck, 2 SS Correa, 3 2b Polonco, 4 LF Larnach, 5 3b Lewis/Miranda, 6 DH Arraez, 7, C Jeffers, 8, RF Kepler, 9 1b Kiroloff/sano/miranda. Really it will depend on health and if Lewis or Miranda force their way into lineup. So again, early to decide what our true needs are, because health and outcomes can change very quickly with pitchers. We can always use better pitching though so if I had to pick, bullpen arms would be biggest need.

What has always been most frustrating about Sano is his lack of growth over the years in the majors. He would have stretches of great production, and long slumps, but we always thought what if he just figures it out. Each year we would say this is his year. He would start off slow, but then pick up his numbers for awhile. He just never got to that next level of play. I always felt if he could have adopted a Miguel Cabrera type approach he would have been great. Not as good as Cabrera, but much better than what Sana has been. Sano had the power to drive ball out of all fields but for some reason always wanted to pull everything out. He would get overpowered by fastballs. I always felt if he would have been willing to drive the fastballs to right and turn on the off-speed stuff he would have been amazing. He would have stretches where he would do that and you would see homeruns to right. I also felt he never had a plan during his at bats. So many of the great hitters would have a plan, have a thought of how the pitcher wanted to pitch them. Sano always felt like he was a see ball hit ball mode and never thought I am going to look for pitch x in location x and swing. He never will be what we hoped, but he is still a MLB player, just may not be for us.

Good article. I would say that I do not expect Coulombe to be a high leverage guy, but will be adequate to get some innings out of. The more he gets used the more teams will start to adjust their scouting report, much as you have pointed out. I am not going to expect Coulombe to be a lights out end of pen guy, but lets keep using him while he is doing well.

I have always been a let Gordon play approach. He has always performed when healthy after adjusting to the level he was at. Will he be an all-star, no. But he could be a valuable utility guy. If not for us, for someone. I think he belongs in the majors and even if we do not keep him he will get time with some team.

Martin has played just over a full season in the minors. To cast him as complete as a player is a little early. Jose Miranda did not hit for much power until last year. Kirby Puckett was not a power hitting guy until age 26 year. Jose Altuve was not a power guy until he hit double digit HR at age 25 season. Martin is still young and could develop power. It is very hard to teach the ability to take pitches and work counts, it is much easier to learn to hit for more power. Will he, not sure, but I would bet if he gets pitched down the middle fast balls all day he will make MLB pitchers pay for that. Also, again he was not the only player in the Berrios trade. I would also note Berrios is not doing all to well so far this season.

I do not want to see Bundy get regular starts for half a year if he keeps giving up 5 plus runs in 3 to 5 innings. However, we have needed 7 starting pitchers so far to not have a bullpen game yet. We may have some more that could step in, but to assume we can go a full season with just 5 guys is never going to happen. If everyone is healthy and Bundy keeps having dud starts, I would want to transition him to long relief role with emergency starts when needed. Paddock just went down with possible long term injury, more to come today on that. Winder is doing great in 2 starts but Bundy did great in 3 starts and we are talking about pulling him after 2 bad starts. There is no reason to think Winder will be like this all year, but there is no reason to think he will fully flop either, but the point is to just say lets cut Bundy because we have 6 other guys that could step in now is kind of crazy. Ober still out with injury, Gray just made it back. Bundy will stick with team for awhile. I just hope if he keeps putting up similar starts as last 2 he gets moved to pen unless needed in starting roll. When the other 6 guys are healthy each should get starts over Bundy if he keeps pitching like last 2. However, he had 3 great starts and 2 bad lets cut him some slack that teams may have made an adjustment to him, now can he adjust again.

The most recent stretch of games show how important having depth in the 40 man, and even a little more, is needed to win in a season. We are down several starters but still getting wins. Our pen has been solid, something people thought would be a dumpster fire this season coming into season. Our starters overall have been very good too, despite using 7 different starters so far.

If he was playing for Twins he would not have had 11 saves, mainly the lack of chances. Rodgers has looked great, but I have a feeling he would not have made to many of our losses wins if we had him over someone else. Maybe like 1 or 2 more wins at most.

Your comment assumes that when he gets to MLB teams will just throw it right down the middle knowing it is unlikely he will hit HR. First, we do not know, unless you have been watching him, I just assume you have not, what kind of pitches he has seen and how he does on them. Maybe because he is one of better hitters at top of lineup he is getting pitched around with not much to really swing at. I liken him to Luis Arraez, I assume you must not think much of him as he does not hit for power either and teams do not walk him much, but he still has a career 375 OBP. Second, Martin was not the only one in the Berrios trade and the other guy has yet to give up a run in 21 innings pitched in AA this year.

The stat of CS% does not mean a catcher is bad at throwing runners out per se. As the quote in article says he is 1 for 5. Not sure the 4 that were made against him, but much of the time pitcher has much to do with it, and the runner. I mean if a pitcher is slow to the plate and the runner is like Buck do we say the catch sucks, or just nothing he can do? I would even argue catching a lot of guys normally means teams are willing to run on you. Now if the bases taken and the CS percent is low that is bad. I remember LeCroy was once pulled mid-inning while with nationals because there was like 6 stolen bases on him in the inning. That is someone that cannot throw out runners. Not catcher, but I remember Manny Ramirez having pretty high assist numbers in the OF, putting up 19 one year, 17 another year. He played 149 games each of those years for a total of 36 assists in 298 games. Buck has 18 career assists in 497 career games. Does that mean Manny was better at throwing out runners? No not at all, it means teams were willing to run against Manny because he was terrible and would get lucky some times. People hardly run on Buck, unless they know they will make it because he is great at throwing runners out. Saying a guy is bad at throwing runners out because he only got 1 of 5 means nothing. How many times could they have run on him? Did he even have a chance to get the runner out? I mean Jeffers may have had perfect throws and the fielder did not catch it, or the runner stole it off the pitcher.

Glad to see Lewis debut, not happy with why he is debuting. Hopefully Correa is not out long and will only be about a month. What would be even better is when Correa is ready to come back Lewis has forced his way into the lineup.

What about Winder, he sure looked good so far too? Even if some of the vets fall off, he may step in like he has so far.

Games like last night will happen in a 162 game season. Not worth dwelling on it. Just about every break went against the Twins in that one. Just do not let it compound to additional games. My biggest concern is this is 2 starts in a row where Bundy was not good. I would agree better defense and he most likely does not give up nearly as many runs. For sure in the 4th they only give up a couple. The first hit should have been caught but the CF broke so late. Miranda had a ball go through his glove as well. However, Bundy still gave up some HR and hard contact as well as a couple of bad walks. I just hope this is not a sign of Bundy moving forward and that Rocco does not keep sending him out there if he is cooked. We have depth we do not need to send out a vet that keeps losing just because we have them. I am willing to give Bundy a few more starts after his first three very good starts, and even last one he settled in for a few good innings, but lets not replay JA Happ and Shoemaker of last year.

I guess to me the question is what do you mean by worry? Do you worry he will not be an MLB player? Do you worry he will not be an all-star? Do you worry he will not be an MVP? Do you worry he will not be a hall of famer? I guess if you expected him to be an MVP candidate year in and year out with gold glove defense at SS then be worried, because it is unlikely he will do that. If you expect he will be a faster Luis Arraez then do not be worried at all. If you have super high expectations for Marten then be worried he will not meet them, but if you think he will get on base at a high percentage, steal a good amount of bases, and can play defense somewhere, then I would not be worried at all. No he will not hit double digit HR but he very well may be able to lead off, steal 40 plus bases, and play adequate defense somewhere, including some time at CF if needed. If you wanted him to step in and hit 20 plus HR drive in 100 plus RBI every year well look somewhere else. I am not worried about Martin being an above average MLB player at all. I am not worried he will flop and never make the majors. Maybe he will develop more power but we do not need 20 plus HR from every guy in our line up. Getting on base at the percent he does, with his speed will still play at the MLB level.

My main comment is the writer talking about how Jeffers has less power than Garver. Outside of his 31 HR season, when everyone was hitting a ton of HR, Garver has been limited in his power. Jeffers hit 14 HR in 293 PA last year, Garver had 13 in 243. In 2018, Garver had 7 in 335 PA. I know people love to talk about the 31 HR season like that was Garver regular self, and not that it was a loaded baseball season. If you go by pure HR to PA ratio Jeffers is basically on par with Garver over his career. Even better if you take out the crazy 2019 year. Many people wanted Jeffers traded and Garver kept, which I thought was crazy as Jeffers was better defender and on par offense overall. Yes, if Garver was always putting up 2019 numbers then Garver had great value, but a single outlier season does not make a career. Jeffers is years younger, and putting up better numbers than Garver.

The trades made will be interesting to follow over the FA signing made and not made. The main trades was giving up Garver, Donaldson, Rotvelt, to get Sanchez, Urshella, and signing Correa. Garver and Donaldson I am fine giving up, but Rortvelt may come back to a loss. Petty for Gray will take years to determine if the trade was bad or not. Petty doing well in low A for reds, but I think he will be one to judge when he gets to higher levels and will his arm hold up to the velo he throws as a starter long term. The Paddock trade for Rogers I personally was fine with as the difference between Rogers and someone else pitching will hardly be noticed over the year. So far I think only 1 possible game we lost because we did not have Rogers, and who knows if he would have got that save.

First, I am not doing a deep dive into any of this, and I fully admit it is very early and things can change quickly. However, I wanted to just look at many of the names in FA or trade that many fans on here wanted and compare them to who we did go forward with. I went with baseball reference for just some quick looks, again not a deep dive. Hitters: I think we did just fine with Correa who is at a .5 WAR, is fielding great, and looking to break out of early slump. Many wanted us to sign Trevor Story: -0.1 WAR, has been hitting a little better lately, but defense numbers not looking too good yet. Marcus Semien was mentioned, but not as likely of signing, but he is a -0.3 so far with terrible hitting and not great fielding. I remember some mentioned Kris Bryant as possible DH type. -0.2 WAR, recently on DL and fielding terrible. Mitch Garver, many were upset was traded away, -0.1 WAR Josh Donaldson 0.7 WAR, both getting on base and doing great on defense. Not a huge average or power yet. I do not think we would have kept him and signed Correa though, I am happy with Correa over Donaldson as just a matter of time before Donaldson gets hurt. Pitchers: Much more was talked about pitching. Twins signed Bundy, Archer, and traded for Gray and Paddock. Gray is a -0.1 WAR and been on IL for awhile. Bundy 0.5 WAR, had a rough last start though, worth seeing if that becomes trend as league adjusts to him again. Archer 0.4 WAR, has had decent starts but has not gone deep. As season moves on wonder if he settles into pen role. Paddock 0.3 WAR has been looking better with each start in my opinion. The moves we did not make that many wanted. I will start with Rondon who many wanted a flier on he has a 1.2 WAR and been amazing for SF. He still may have injury concerns, but so far it looks like trying to bring him in would have been a good move. Robbie Ray was mentioned by some, but figured to be out of price range he is -0.1 WAR, did fine against us but since not so good. Marcus Stroman was mentioned by many as well. He has even WAR with a high ERA. Eduardo Rodriguez was a big name before he signed with Tigers many wanted and thought we could get. He is -0.7 WAR so far, not a good start for him. Jon Gray was mentioned by some. He has -0.2 WAR only 2 starts with 9 innings. Sean Manaea many were upset that we did not trade for him. So far -0.1 WAR First 3 starts great, last 2 not so good. Again I know early on and much can change, but I remember reading so many comments about how terrible the offseason moves by FO was. So far most of them looking pretty good, and the moves many of the fans wanted instead is not looking like they would have been better options. Also remember of the FA other than Rondon all were signed to long term deals beyond 2 years. Manaea has just the 1 year of control left so not much investment there. Maybe all the moves flip the other way and these are just hot versus slow starts, maybe not. I just wanted to show that so far many of the questioned moves are panning out early on. I think it will be worth checking back every month to see how the full season plays out.

Unless they are a relief pitcher at the AAA or dominate at AA I do not care too much about minor league relief guys. It is mainly that if a guy is a relief pitcher at low A, generally, he will not do all to well for a career. Some will, but the most successful MLB relief pitchers were normally a minor league starter for some period.