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Trov

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Everything posted by Trov

  1. Trov
    First, he did not blow a save over the weekend, he did take the loss in his second inning of extra innings because Lopez blew the save putting it to extra innings. He has blown a lot of saves, and giving up way too many HR to pitch in high leverage situations right now. However, he still has good stuff overall and I would not look to DFA him, just keep his high leverage situations to a minimum. You point out WPA, and the guy we traded away has a lower WPA with a -0.9 to Pagan is -0.7. Lopez our new closer has -0.5 for us so far, very small sample with us, but he has blown 2 saves for us in 4 chances. I like the WPA stat because it takes leverage into account. Pagan has been taken out of high leverage for awhile now, but over the weekend he had to go out in the extra innings for 2 innings because we burned through our high leverage guys that blew the save.
  2. Trov
    For most part I would agree, but I am sure if we were asked last year if we would sign Correa to a deal everyone would say no way no how. Yes, last year was an interesting off-season that most likely led to the deal, but Correa was not given the contract he wanted, so he signed the "pillow deal". Judge turned down big deal to bet on himself, but will people pay what he is asking? I do not believe any will be signed by Twins, but we did shock everyone with the Correa deal.
  3. Trov
    Julien may get moved up to AAA after AA season is over. With this close to end of season organizations tend to look to not make too many moves unless they have to. I would agree he is ready to move up at the plate, but as he would not be making the MLB this year does it make much of a difference today, next month, or next year to be in AAA? In terms of defense he has played all year at 2b or dh, only 18 games in LF last year. From everything I read on him is his defense is what will keep him from being regular starter, unless his bat is super elite he may be settling into 1b/DH. They may look back to LF if there is a spot there in future, but that could be addressed more in off-season. Although his defense at 2b on paper does not look to be terrible this year so maybe he has made improvements. Polonco is close to end of his contract so 2nd base is not as locked up as it may seem. Overall, I am sure it will work itself out.
  4. Trov
    All three are easy calls. Bundy would be a little harder if we did not have a lot of possible depth and he was more consistent. Sano is out and so is Bundy. Gray easy pick up.
  5. Trov
    This was the ultimate team loss. We left so many on base that if we could have got 1 hit in many cases we could have broke game open. Beyond that there was some terrible at bats watching some guys swing at ball four near their eyes. Then late in the game we had some good defense but some bad defense as well. I mainly do not understand why Gordon was not much closer to the line. The left hand hitter looked like a slap hitter to me, and you add in fact that Lopez throws heat. No way was he going to pull the ball in the air to right. Everyone should have been swung way over, but for some reason Gordon was way off the line making him needing to dive. Still if we get one hit with runners in scoring position we win the game and not put in that position.
  6. Trov
    I wonder where Julien on national prospect rankings after this year. He was never highly touted but has done nothing but hit and shown good eye at plate walking nearly as much as striking out. His numbers are slightly better this year than last year overall too. I think what is hurting his prospect ranking is one he was never high on people lists, but two his lack of defense. I is at 2nd right now and appears to not be too solid there even. He is looking like possible low defense high offense 2nd base or shift to 1B. He has DH 14 times at AA. His bat will get him to MLB it looks like, but his lack of defense may limit his impact. However, if he can hit like he has at the MLB level, they will find a spot for him. May make debut next year.
  7. Trov
    Interesting take on prospect rankings. You talk about CES as a guy that gave hope, assuming because his offense numbers, and attack Noah Miller, because his offense numbers not as good. What I draw from your determination on prospects is you only care what their offense output is and do not care about anything else that will go into it. Like age, defensive position, how well they can play defense, projection based on. I bet going back to 2019 you most likely said Jose Miranda was not a prospect and had no hope of being anything, being his slash numbers were basically the same as Noah Miller. Miranda was not high on rankings, but he developed. Much of prospect ranking is projection, not where they are right now. CES is not highly ranked by national rankings. In part, he is older so less projection there, and many worry when he faces better pitching he will strike out at way to high of rate. I personally have not watched, unlike the scouts that actually rank him, not sure if you have. However, the book on him is he will chase too much, and many expect when he faces better pitching that will have less mistakes he will not do as well. Maybe he proves them wrong. Prospect ranks are subjective and many times people get them wrong. However, to say Miller is destined for utility guy at best when he is only 19 in A ball right now may be a little premature as well. Maybe you are right, but only time will tell. Personally though, I was not big on CES because he has no defense and I have seen too many college bats tear up lower minors only to never make majors because in AAA they face good pitching and their holes are exposed. Maybe they get a cup of coffee or something at majors but again holes get exposed.
  8. Trov
    I would say Canterino worries me the most. Not because it is TJ, as many guys recover from it, but he has had many arm issues and Rice guys have history of that. Maybe he comes back and does just fine, but he will start getting passed up on depth charts and will need to prove himself much faster before he starts getting bounced around the league on waiver claims. Lewis will be given every chance to show he is back, and as long as he can hit there will be a place for him. Rodriguez is still very young and will be given plenty of time to recover too. Also he will be known for the bat as well and at minimum there is the DH roll he can find if he can keep swinging.
  9. Trov
    No they do not have too much starting pitching. Yes, they have more than 5 but no team ever just uses 5. Some if needed could get transitioned to pen roll, where many starters end up excelling. Some will get injured, and some could get traded. There may be a 40 man roster crunch and you may lose one or two through waivers, but none of the ones you may lose are top of rotation guys. Smeltzer will be DFA. Despite having a decent run, he was getting by with smoke and mirrors. He has high chance of passing through waivers and if not, no huge deal. Overall it will work itself out. Maybe the players will not be as happy about spending time in minors until injuries give them starts, or being in pen, but such is the nature of the game.
  10. Trov
    If he continues to struggle the rest of the season like he has over last few weeks, then maybe he opts in next year, but his numbers are still very good at a position of high need. I would still expect a team willing to give up long term deal if he bounces back to normal the rest of the year. Maybe he opts in, and if he does I will not be upset at all.
  11. Trov
    Brooks Lee is expected to be a quick mover through the system. In part why Steer was even easier to be traded. Steer was blocked at MLB by guys, and had someone like Lee most likely nipping at his heels. I bet he starts next season in AA.
  12. Trov
    I would not look to have Duran the "fireman" roll. He can strike guys out at high rate and rarely walks, but he also is not always having clean 123 innings. He seems to give up a week single a lot of times, which if you need to put out a fire you do not want that. I think Twins will keep putting him out there to start innings. I would agree using him against heart of lineup before 8th may be good idea than just save for 8th.
  13. Trov
    If it helps him stay on the field good for him. I wonder why they did not look into this last surgery or why it just started to be an issue in his early 20's. My guess his bone did not get longer just this past year, I could be wrong not a doctor or anything. Either way I hope all the luck to him on his recovery.
  14. Trov
    Personally I am happy with the deals. They brought in 2 controllable pitchers, a rental pen arm, and a backup catcher, all without giving up any "top" prospects that are near MLB ready. Either Lopez or Mahle could be dealt before their contracts end if we wanted to, which would soften any lost prospects, or we use them all next year for another hopeful playoff run. Steer plays a position that is not a need for a couple of years, barring injuries of course, but there are others that can fill in. The pitchers are all a couple of years from being ready, and we never know how would pan out, but we have a lot of depth in the lower minors that was going to get figured out at one point. None of them are highly touted but doing well. CES may be the biggest peice going out, but he is mainly a bat, and again at position not of major need right now. I also have concerns his bat will not carry in the higher levels, which is why he is also not a top prospect because of fear his chase rate will get exploited as he faces better pitching. These are the types of deals I was hoping would be made. Improve the team, but do not sell the farm or your future.
  15. Trov
    I am greatly concerned with his wrist, being that our only reports are that no additional surgery will be helpful. I was hopeful when he came back and was hitting the ball hard he had learned to play through it, but looks like might be something to haunt him rest of career.
  16. Trov
    Overall I like this deal. He still has years of control and can be flipped later on like we did with Rogers or Brewers did with Hader to get some return back if we need to. That is why years of control is so important. We did not give up anyone that will hurt us over the next 2 to 3 years either.
  17. Trov
    I was big on Arcia. In part it goes back to when he was in AA I went to a game he was playing and the ball just sounded different off his bat. He came on the scene and looked like he could be a hitter for years. He just never adjusted to how MLB pitchers would pitch to him. His attitude reflected that as well when he would make comments about he was there to hit HR. I was really big on Stephen Gonsalves. His early low minor numbers were great, but he just never fully developed.
  18. Trov
    Snell is an interesting piece as his numbers have not been good since leaving Rays, but if his stuff is still the same it makes you wonder what is leading to it? Is SD just that much worse on defense? I mean the park is a pitcher park if I recall correctly. I trust the FO if they think they can bring him back to his TB numbers, but he has not been great in SD. He would very much be buy low guy, and could get really cheap if you want to take on all the money.
  19. Trov
    I would love to see them trade for Willson Contreras but my guess they will not. I do not know what he would cost as a rental, but many teams will be bidding. Very few contending teams would not be willing to upgrade offense at catcher. Even though the Twins offense is not their biggest issue, if you can make it even better at catcher I would look at it.
  20. Trov
    My guess Winder stays starting either here or in AAA. I doubt they move him to relief roll.
  21. Trov
    If tipping his pitches is accurate that is something players will pick up on and make you pay. Unless you are super elite with your pitches if a hitter knows it is coming they will normally hit it.
  22. Trov
    Every pitcher runs into issues and needs to make adjustments. The main question is when will the league adjust to his new change up and how will that play out after that? Will the league adjust and light up the change up, or will it keep them off enough to keep him on top? Duffy is the perfect example of why pen pitchers are hard to predict because their bad outings are normally amplified compared to a starter. A starter gives up 2 or 3 runs to first 3 or 4 batters and settles down to pitch 5 or 6 innings we do not say much, but a pen guy gives up 2 or 3 runs to first 3 or 4 guys and the outing was terrible.
  23. Trov
    In terms of Santana I am not a fan of trading for a pen arm on a break out season. Unless you can really see where the change was that made the difference and believe it is sustainable. I mean how many times have we seen someone like say Duffy look like they are on the verge of being dominate relief guy only to struggle again. Someone that has long history of poor pitching to suddenly break out I have a huge red flag on and would not give up much for him. I am always willing to take fliers on guys, but giving up much from one is a huge risk. You need to be really certain they will maintain.
  24. Trov
    It is nice to see the numbers backing up what the eyes see. I will always remember in his rookie year pinch hitting after a 0-2 count when the hitter got hurt swinging. He managed to work a walk. That is just crazy, coming off the bench, with 0 chance of mistake and he works a walk. At that point I was sold on him as an on base guy. This year he seems to be having a little more power. Maybe not HR power, but getting those doubles. He might develop more power as he ages, similar to Altuve, maybe not as much power, but he could still be a double digit HR guy if he grows a little more power.
  25. Trov

    Sano Situation

    Trov commented on Doc Munson's blog entry in Fantasy GM

    There may be a team that will be willing to take a flyer on Sano, but unless you pay for the contract and buy out, you are not getting much of value for him. He does have potential upside and maybe a new home could unlock it. He is also one that if hot can carry a team through the playoffs, but could also be an auto strike out as well. You also point out that we have pretty much no where to play him right now, so why would a team be willing to give up much, if there is a chance we DFA him anyways. Unless he looks amazing during his rehab I would not be surprised if we DFA him and any team can pick him up off waivers or sign him after clears and he becomes FA. Unless a team thinks he will be something more than he has, I doubt anyone gives up anything of much value to us at MLB level for him.
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