Trov

I find the expectations of some fans a little crazy. Coming into the season Twins were expected to be around .500, just over, and to have a chance to compete with the Sox, but many expected Twins to finish 2nd. We are .500 today, and have a chance to finish above .500. Our chances of making playoffs took a huge hit this past week, but not 0 yet. I am not saying we will make it. For the people that think a full new FO and coaching staff will get anything more next year, you must not follow baseball too much. I mean look at SF this year, they were one of the best teams last year, and this year they are below .500. Their roster is almost the same, pitching may have even been upgraded talent wise, but their offense was much worse. The big years from some guys did not happen again. Is that FO, or managers, or just players not performing the same? Should the FO saw it coming? Did the coaching staff ask them to make changes they did not need to do, or fail to get the players to make changes they should? We had a full MLB roster on IL for much of the year, we are not alone in injuries, but the team has been carried the last month or so with rookies, or backups. Some have stepped up or we would not even be .500. Just think if Miranda had not bounced back but hit like he did his first several games? Should Rocco and coaches get any credit for his improvement after he first struggled? What about Gordon and his offense? Do they get no credit for that? You may not like how he manages pitchers and the staff, and maybe some old school guy would have won a few more games, but maybe they would have lost several more too.

There should be no change in the FO. Baseball has long been a game that it takes several years to see the full impact of changes. It takes 3 to 7 years for most signed or drafted players to make the majors. I am not a fan of making changes too quickly in baseball and feel the FO has done just fine overall. You can attack some of the moves they have made, I fully agree, but they have made plenty of good moves too. It is not like there is no future with the team, we still have plenty of players in the pipeline to come up. Unlike NFL and NBA where a team can turn things around super fast, it is rare for baseball to see the full effect of a new FO quickly. I know they have been here for several years now, but we have made playoffs. The key to a good FO is having a consistent pipeline of players, not just going all in on a few top FA and trade targets hoping they pay off. Look at Padres, they have signed a ton of top guys, made a ton of trades for top guys and are 20 games back in their division, set to make playoffs if they can hold off the Brewers. They have not won as the talent they have brought in would expect. Is it the FO for lack of bring in top talent, no, is it the FO for not having certain depth, no, I mean they are 13 games above .500. They have a good team but still might not make playoffs because only 7 teams in NL have winning records. If anything, I think we need a new medical team or approach to help figure out why so many of our guys are having soft tissue injuries. You cannot predict torn ligaments or broken bones normally. Some may disagree about some of the TJ surgeries, but the fact we have almost a full MLB team on long term IL stints is crazy we even competed as long as we did. If people want a perfect FO that never makes a bad trade, bad signing, bad draft pick, you will always be disappointed and will keep firing everyone. As long as the good moves outweigh the bad ones, then I say stick with them.

What a dig at the Toronto coaching staff, considering he is having his worst season as a pro while pitching for them.

SWR had a rough run mid-season and ended up on IL. Since the IL stint he has been pretty good. He started off great in April, had terrible May, then was out most of June with injury. Since, coming back, even with his promotion, he has given up 11 runs in about 36 innings pitched, and struck out 46 walking 12. Martin also has been doing decent since his return from his injury. He missed over a month, and since he has been on base at least 1 time, most games more than 1 time, in every game but 2. He had back to back 0 for 4 with no walks or HBP. Sure it is not a ton of games, but fact he missed over a month and can do that is nice. The 1 draw back is only 5 extra base hits in those times. He has stolen 11 bases with only being caught 1 time, so even his walks or singles have been getting to second. His prospect rankings have taken a huge hit, but I am still optimistic he can play at this level.

He does need to work on off-speed stuff because teams are sitting on it. They know his fastball is hard to hit, so they just are looking for non fastballs for most part. However, I think at times the catcher and him are overthinking things. He needs to work on the off-speed, but in games I say use the fastball until they beat you on it. What is wrong with throwing it over and over if guys are not hitting it? Of course he cannot throw it every pitch, but maybe start with off-speed, then pound fast balls the rest of the at bat, or throw the off-speed out of the zone more. Not a full waste pitch, but work on not trying to throw for strikes as much, and use that to keep the hitter honest, then use the fastball. Until the league starts to tee off the fastballs, why make major adjustments? It is like hitters, they come up, crush fast balls then start missing breaking balls. They get thrown breaking balls all day long, half the time out of the zone, and until they show they will not chase, pitchers will keep throwing it. Everyone says Joe needs to throw more off speed because eventually players will hit the fastball, but until that happens why make it easy on the hitters? Work on the off-speed not in live games or in spring, which remember he did not have much of one this year.

I would say the biggest injury risk we dealt for was Paddock. I still do not mind the trade overall because he still has years of control and do not feel we gave up a ton, some feel otherwise but do not want to go down that hole. With Maeda I feel he should not even be on the list, he pitched nearly 2 seasons before the injury. Dyson lied about issues, we could not have known. Mahle, he is one that had flags, but was showing signs of doing well when dealt, so not much of a reason to think anything major. I mean we even had him come back because he seemed to just have a tired shoulder at the time. You can never fully predict if a guy will have an injury let alone a major one. You can get better offers, but many teams take on these risk factors and other teams have got burned just like Twins have.

Say what you will about Falvey's moves in FA, trades, and some draft picks, his calling card coming in was identifying diamond in the roughs in pitchers and building a possible pipeline that was built in Cleveland. I believe he has done exactly that hear. I know some will point out failed pitchers we brought in to try and refute my argument, but I pointing to the guys like Varland, Dobnak(yes he has not done much due to injuries but he went undrafted to MLB in short order, that is spotting something or development). Even Joe Ryan could be in that class so far as many experts slotted him as a pen pitcher but he has been one of our better starters since he got called up. Ober did fine last year and was improving out of no where as well. Of course there are some guys that have not panned out, or regressed lately, but there seems to be much more later round or undrafted successes than top pick busts. Are any of them HOF bound, not likely, but getting solid innings from guys like Dobnak(undrafted) who may not be great, but had a good start to his career and many pitchers taken in 2017 draft will never even make MLB level. Ober was a 12th round pick in 2017 as well, similar he is doing better than many pitchers picked ahead of him in that draft. Varland might be the best of all of the guys named above, and he was 15th round pick and doing better than many pitchers taken ahead of him. Of course there will be misses, and even pitchers we took ahead of guys like Ober, Varland, and Dobnak never pan out, but I am pretty sure this is good success rate for guys in those rounds. I could be wrong, but doubt it.

I wonder if Walner gets put on 40 man and gets a September shot? He is hot for right now, that may not carry into pro level, but we need as much offense as we can get, and he could supply that. However, we have a few 60 day IL guys that may need to come of that will make it harder to find a 40 man spot for him.

I love that his slump is still above average hitter. I think he is just going through adjustment to how he is being pitched. Early in year he was smacking line drives to LF all day long. Now teams are pounding him inside to try to prevent that, leading to him needing to pull more. I am not worried about him at all, and all players have a slump. He is still leading league in hitting, and I would still take him in the box over just about anybody in our line up.

I would add that I am very impressed with his approach at the plate. He seems to have a plan up there and look for specific pitches that he is expecting. Sometimes it leads to him looking foolish, like last night against Wacha where he was up 3-1 on count and took to called strikes because he guessed wrong, but he is clearly having thoughts in his head of what he is expecting. An at-bat later on he pulled a ball deep and foul, then next pitch he smoked a liner the other way, for an out, but it showed he was expecting that pitch and was ready for it. I fully expect he will have good seasons as a hitter, now I just hope he can work on his glove work, where ever he settles in.

I would not say he is underrated. He is hitting overall well, but so are many of the other rookies on the list that are offensive, and all of them play better defense. I bet if Twins were offered most of the other offensive guys on that list, except for maybe Kwan and Donovan, straight up for Miranda they make that move. Not taking anything away from him, and I like him, but he is mostly just bat.

Whether you like his style or not, I do not think he is going anywhere, unless the team completely falls off. We are above .500 and unless we crash the last month of the season we should finish above .500. That would be 3 out of 4 above .500, and we have a good chance to still make playoffs depending on how last month goes. Our star CF has been injured or playing hurt most of this season. We are on our like 5th LF, and used a like 10 starters, and 20 pen pitchers it seems, not sure exact numbers. I am not defending his style, but Rocco has been winning overall, we have no clue if anyone else would have done any better, and I would doubt they would. Also, Rocco is managing how I believe the FO wants, following analytics.

Balazovic concerns me the most because clearly something is off with him. My hopes is he figures it out during off season and he can bounce back. Lucky we were never slotting him in to be in the rotation and have huge depth for next year as well. Martin is disappointing he did not take steps and may have regressed, but he also has been injured part of the year, and you never know how much of a nagging injury he had. He will never be a big power hitter, but hopefully he can be more of a line drive guy that hits the gaps for extra base hits. Canterino is not surprising as he came from Rice who love to burn their college arms out. Hopefully after the recovery of TJ he will give us something.

It was a lefty pitcher Garlick hit against, not a righty. Game cast must have had that wrong.

I expect he breaks at AA next year. As long as he can field a position he will be making his MLB quickly, unless there is a huge regression next year.

He offers very little other than an emergency injury replacement should we need it. He has no offense and can run and play defense, but we need guys that can get actual hits. Imagine him and Leon in the same line up, why not just say we have to auto outs. I mean unless you are asking for a bunt I would tell them to never even swing the bat, their chances of getting on base are higher.

Even before I read I said to myself, Joey Gallo is who he was going to say. Personally, I am not a fan of that style of hitter, unless they are hitting HR with runners on or at least hits with RISP, I do not care how many solo HR a guy hits. Sure, in some games they may win, but all too often they strike out or fail when RISP but when game is blow out one way or other they hit a solo HR so season numbers look good. I used to always point to Trevor Plouffe on this issue, This year Buxton has had a similar season where he gets HR and extra base hits when no one is on, but when runners on he strikes out too much failing to drive runs in. We get in awe of the HR and power, but forget that with 1 out and runner on third they swing through a pitch out of the zone, but love the light tower power when pitcher is just trying to get through the at bat.

I agree that it is a bit of a question if he will get what he is looking for when he opts out. I highly expect he will opt out, I could be wrong, but that was his plan the whole time. Now, based on the rest of the crop teams will have to decide who is getting paid. Of course TEX is out, DET is out, Mets out, and SD are out of bidding. However, Dodgers, Angels, Braves, Seattle, Red Sox, maybe Cubs maybe Yankees depending on their plans with their prospects, Point is there is 4 SS, just like this year, all looking for deals and more teams than players looking to sign them.

I find it highly unlikely he opts in. He will try to cash in again this offseason on a more normal offseason. Dodgers and Red Sox and possibly Yankees will be looking to spend on a SS. Nationals may as well, they have been known to throw money out there. It may be a little risk of him, but I would assume his plan all along was to opt out barring injury.

My biggest complaint is that the team is 100% flipped to analytics. I hated when prior FO and managers were so anti analytics, but now they are 100% all in on analytics. That being they do not work on situational hitting as much. We do not do the little things that help score runs, but care more about getting the extra base hits. The problem is when the extra base hits are not coming, for whatever reason, we are not getting runs across the plate in situations. This is not just a this year problem, and hope we really address it in the future. I am a fan of using analytics, but the problem with always doing analytic thinking is that the numbers from analytics are derived over a lifetime of situations of past results. For example, the lifetime of runners on 2 with 0 out you will score more than 1 run 30% of the time, but with runner on third and 1 out you score more than 1 run less than 20%. The difference in scoring just 1 run increases about 12% when runner gets moved over to 3rd with 1 out, however, the chance of scoring 0 runs remains about the same. So the argument is, especially early in game, is to not move the runner over because your chance of scoring 0 runs is about the same, your chance of scoring more than 1 run is decreased. The counter is that your chance of scoring 1 run is increased. However, many analytic thinkers say just scoring 1 run does not move the win probability that much, even more so early in games, so teams will not play for that 1 run early in games. That is why teams stopped bunting runners over, but even worse, is teams stopped working on hitting behind runners in hopes of moving over at minimum but getting hits still. LH hitters will do it naturally with a pull on the ground, but RH almost never do anymore. Because they never practice it. In addition, when a runner is on 3rd we hardly work on just making sure we put ball in play, but still looking to get the extra base hit. Now, I know it is easier to say than do, but I do not even see anyone try anymore, and that is most likely based on team concepts. The thought is to sacrifice single run innings to have multi run innings, because we do not expect to have as many run scoring chances. I am not saying we should always play for single run innings, but advancing guys to third, then looking to get extra base hit, but at least getting ball in play will help us win many more games than trying to always drive the run in from second.

I am not expect anyone to come up and make a difference, maybe Larnach if he can hit like he did prior to injuries, but he has been up and down his whole short career. We really need the current players to hit like they have in the past. Getting 1 hit with RISP but having a ton of chances will not get it done. We are not hitting HR right now either so runs have been hard to come by. You cannot expect your staff to get shutouts every game.

Berrios has average 5.375 innings per start. I would argue he does not give his team 7 good innings for the most part, being he does not average even 6. He also has a negative WAR this year, meaning in general any replacement level guy would have been better. You use Ryan as a comparison, who also average 5.35 innings, so nearly the same average, just had 4 less games in part due to COVID. He has been good for a 1 WAR so far this year. So he may only give the team 5 to 6 innings even when he is going good, not his call to come out of games, but his innings overall have been of better quality. Berrios when good has given 7 plus innings 6 times, or 25% of his starts. He has pitched 6 or 6 and partial in 6 more games. So half his games he pitches 6 or more innings. Of which all were quality starts. However, when he has not given a quality start, in half his outings, the other half has been pretty bad. He had a couple of near quality starts that the team won, but for most part half his games the teams has had to score a ton of runs because he has given up more than a run per inning pitched. I would say that is a far cry from 7 good innings for most part. Ryan has 7 out of his 20 starts meet the quality start term, but he has many that he pitched into 6th and was pulled, and only 1 of Ryan's starts this year did he allow more than 1 run per inning, a huge clunker of 10 runs in 4.2 innings. He has had a few not good giving up 1 run per inning or close to it, but for most part he has kept games close giving 5 to 6 innings. If Rocco let him go he maybe could have got a few more innings, but he is always quick to pull guys. Maybe if Rocco does not Ryan get blown up and looks more like a Berrios line has, or maybe not. Many of Berrios blow ups have been in just a couple of innings as well.

I personally feel their biggest issue with runners on base is lack of a plan at the plate for most of them. Buxton is one of the worst on our team with runners in scoring position. Despite pitchers having a different approach to him when runners on, he does not change his approach. His OPS with RISP is .625 with a OPS+ of 68. His overall is OPS i .830 with OPS+ of 130. He is hitting a lot of HR, but just not when runners are on. He has 11 HR with runners on, meaning he has 17 solo shots. He is just not driving in runs when he has the chance. I do not know if it is how pitchers pitch him when runners on, or he trying to do too much, but he is supposed to be the leader of the offense, but he is the biggest issue of driving in runs when RISP. Of the 11 with runners on, only 3 was with RISP. I agree someone needs to step up on offense and help carry the team. I know fans do not like the RBI stat anymore, but the fact is our leader has only 55. The only way you win is by driving in runs, so there still should be some value. If Buxton hit like he did with RISP all the time, we would be calling for him to be benched, or at least not DH every game he is not in CF. However, if he hit with RISP like he did without, he would be right up with Judge for MVP talks, driving in a ton of runs, and scoring even more.

I think it is a little early to call Lee a for sure steal, I mean it was not like he fell to end of first, like Trout did, and it is still very SSS. Also, there is only 1 player taken ahead of him in similar situation, that being a college SS/3B. At pick 6 was Jacob Berry, the rest of the players were pitchers or high school, so will be a long time to know if we got the better of the players. Berry is not off to good start like Lee, but again time will tell. That being said, I am happy with what I am seeing of Lee, and I expect his bat to move him quickly through system

Of course he can be better. I also think he will be better. I always like Berrios, but he never got over that hump and he was the default ace for us despite being an ace. He was always good, and in some games great. However, he has had poor starts, or in many cases just one poor inning that blows up quickly. Many times too quick to get a pitcher ready to come in and it gets out of hand quickly. This was not just for the Twins but has been even worse for the Jays this year. I want to be clear I am not Jose bashing, because he was very good for us, and above average pitcher. He just never became that dominate ace type that we knew every time out was a good chance to win. He normally was either great for the game or terrible, rarely in between, and as stated sometimes would turn very quickly. Only time will tell if SWR will be better than Berrios, and I guess more of the question is are you asking during the length of Berrios contract with Jays, or overall career? If we are talking over length of time of contract, so far SWR will not even need to pitch to have a higher WAR. If we are talking over full career he will only need a couple of great seasons to top the 10 WAR that Berrios is near. I feel fans thought more of Berrios than what he truly was.