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Major League Ready

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  1. Major League Ready
    Just to emphasize your point Mike, The runner-up AL batting Champ had an OPS that was 250 point higher than Arraez and his wRC+ was 76 points higher and he is a plus defender. His WAR was over 3X that of Arraez. I would also add that adding Lopez is a gain over Ober and Ober will be a gain over whoever he replaces in the BP if they utilize him in that capacity.
  2. Major League Ready
    or they could keep the top tier prospects it would require and use the payroll savings those players provide to acquire a top of the rotation arm in free agency. The net of that strategy would be to have all of the players that would have been traded away and a top of the rotation arm. This strategy obviously has much more upside and the benefits last for 5-6 years. Not to mention that betting on one guy as often as pitchers get hurt there is real potential to give away a ton and get very little in return. A contending team would never trade away an "ace" for a collection of average players that are established so trading Polanco, Kepler, and Gallo for an ace is never going to happen. The only way an ace is delt is if it's for multiple great prospects that have a huge impact on the future of a franchise.
  3. Major League Ready
    True but I do remember thinking at the deadline that they were fooling themselves if they thought they were at all serious contenders, and I wrote that here. There is a little more nuance to it though. Others have pointed out that they did not give up top prospects although it would not surprise me if CES turned out to be an all-star. They were really deep with "decent" prospects like Steer and you can't keep them all. That's why I said earlier that the Twins could absolutely have a sustained period of success after making the trades they have made. Trading Arraez and replacing his production internally (at least close) is part of how they sustain winning. Trading Polanco when Lee or Lewis is ready ... part of the solution. Extending Mahle / Gray or getting a comp round pick, etc. Getting lucky in the lottery helps too.
  4. Major League Ready
    I basically agree this is a hindsight judgment but there is also some degree of accountability if their evaluation is wrong as it was when the cardinals gave up both Alcantara and Gallen. Just my opinion but I think this FO significantly misjudged their chances last year. If they don't make much of a playoff run this year, they did in fact expend a lot of assets when their chances were not good. So, while it is hindsight, that hindsight pretty clearly shows they were wrong about their chances last year and any team can misjudge prospects and end up over paying in a manner that has a significant long-term negative impact. The best hitters fail 70% of the time. Decisions that don't work out are part of the deal but that does not change the fact that deals that seemed reasonable turn out to be bad decisions that hurt the team for several years.
  5. Major League Ready
    I am not quite there. It depends on two things for me. Do they actually contend? If not, so what if they were a little better. Obviously, they did not contend last year. We will see about this year but a lot of stuff has to go right, Two, how long and how well does the lost prospect perform. 5-6 years of a solid number 2 really lifts a team, not to mention that cost controlled guy frees up budget for FAs. There are some examples like the Marlins got Alcantara and Gallen for two years of Acuna. For me, unless they have two runs to the WS or win the WS one of the years, it's a very bad trade. They won 88 games in 2018 and 91 in 19 then lost 4-0 in the NLCS. So, they did pretty well but for me that is not remotely worth Alcantara for 6 years not to mention Zac Gallen as a bonus.
  6. Major League Ready
    He has to be the biggest wildcard in the entire system. Prelipp and Rodriquez will be the two prospects I watch the closest in 2023. Salas too.
  7. Major League Ready
    I might be the biggest advocate on this board of the need to develop or trade for prospects that produce for 6+ years instead of two years. However, the twins can absolutely have sustained success in the wake of the trades that were made. That will depend on a few of the young guys coming through and realizing their potential. They need to create a rotation between Ryan / Ober / SWR / Varland / Winder / Balazovic / Prielipp / Canterino / Festa and Raya. who knows maybe they take a pitcher at 5 this year in the draft. If they can develop starters, they will have the financial flexibility to sign a top of the rotation free agent. They have so many position player prospects that a few can fail they need to create a group of core guys between Correa / Buxton / Kirilloff / Miranda / Lewis / Lee / Larnach / Walner / Rodriquez / Martin and Salas. The trades were a short-term benefit and likely a long-term loss. That can be overcome by trades like the Arraez trade if they can get present and/or future value for the established players that will inevitably be replaced. That's why they should trade Kepler and eventually Polanco. They might just have enough mid rotation starters to trade someone at the deadline and they have a couple pitchers that will at minimum net a comp round pick. Plus, they got lucky and moved up to 5 in the draft and they have a comp round pick. There is a good chance we have a good team for the next several years. They will need a couple stars to emerge if they are going to be a dominant team.
  8. Major League Ready
    There might actually be a competition for the final spot among position players between Larnach / Martin, and Julien. That could be interesting to watch as spring training unfolds.
  9. Major League Ready
    Depends on several things. 1. How good are twins at the 2023 deadline. 2. The return for Lopez. 3. How good are Varland / Winder / SWR / Canterino / Balazovic / Prielipp / Festa and Raya looking. If 3 or 4 of them are absolutely dominating in Milb, it would make the move easier. 4. What is his ask. 5. How does Maeda bounce back and Paddack could be ready by then. How does he look at that point. 6. How well are Ober / Ryan pitching. 7. Their willingness to really pony up next year and spend on a top free agent pitcher. The dollars will be available. They have Mahle / Gray / Maeda / Pagan / Gallo and Taylor coming off. They will likely trade Kepler and Farmer or decline Kepler's option. They can also non-tender farmer. That's a total of $61M coming off if they were to trade Lopez. They can spend half on one pitcher if they can fill four spots in the 2024 rotation between Ryan / Ober / Paddack / SWR / Varland / Winder / Canterino / Balazovic and Festa. Perhaps Prielipp and Raya become options during the 2024 season. Perhaos they extend Gray or Maeda on a shorter deal. Put Nola or Severino and the front of that group and you have something.
  10. Major League Ready
    Spring training starts in 32 days.
  11. Major League Ready
    Squirrel's point about the value of this trade having multiple levels makes this an interesting case. Arreaz did one thing extremely well. However, when the Twins look at how they replace him, it's not a simple player to player comparison. He was a below average defender and base runner with little power and he did not hit LH pitching well. The key to how this works out with a guy that fit in wherever they had room will be how they cover his ABs in aggregate. Can Kirilloff provide better defense at 1B and equal offensive production. Can Julien provide an equal OBP with more power and therefore a higher OPS / wRC+ along with above average base running and equal defense. Can Martin provide similar OBP with better defensive value and great base running. Will the additions of Lewis and Lee squeeze Arraez out? In other words, will the players taking his ABs collectively cover the offense of Arraez while gaining in other areas? The more I think about it, the more I think they can cover his departure.
  12. Major League Ready
    It would be easier to identify the guys that won't DH. Other than Farmer and Jeffers, just about everyone could get at least a few games at DH. Gallo gets a few DH days if he is playing like he did in 2019 or 2021. 2022 Joey Gallo is only in the lineup when he is playing in the OF.
  13. Major League Ready
    I understand where you are coming from and two teams can both win in a trade. The scenario could play out many ways. Petty could end up being a 3/4 and it's no big deal. If Chase Petty turns out to be an ace, I would not view it as a good outcome unless the twins made a deep push in the playoffs this year and Gray was instrumental. Granted, the odds of Petty becoming an ace are long but two years of a good pitcher in years where we did not contend is not a good swap if we could have had a better pitcher for 6+ years. It would be just our luck!
  14. Major League Ready
    Ryan for Cruz was a fantastic trade. Getting out of the Donaldson contract while getting Urshela and Sanchez was darn good. Duran for Escobar is looking good as well. The Sonny Gray trade could come back to bite us but it will be 4 or 5 years before we can really assess that one.
  15. Major League Ready
    His career OPS against LHP is 685 and wRC+ is 88. I would rather have Garlick on the bench with all the other LH hitting OFers. Garlick's OPS against LH pitching is 839 and a wRC+ of 126.
  16. Major League Ready
    I posted the exact same position as Mike. No way would I have traded Arrez for Lopez straight-up. Those prospects absolutely made me change my tune. Success for a team with a significant revenue disadvantage is absolutely dependent on acquiring/developing prospects regardless of its via draft or trade. Nothing is remotely close in terms of importance. So, to place no value on prospects would pretty much guarantee failure on a long-term basis.
  17. Major League Ready
    Thanks for this comment. The total emphasis on immediacy absolutely blinds many people. How many examples are there of guys like Tatis Jr or Corey Kluber? Our own Jhoan Duran took 2 1/2 years. A year or 3 years is far less relevant than what they turn out to be. I would much rather wait 3 years for a guy that produces 5 WAR than get a 2.5 WAR guy that's ML ready.
  18. Major League Ready
    I read the one from fangraphs that someone linked earlier. It made me feel pretty good because there was no emotion involved. It was a well thought out and well-crafted assessment of the trade. There were a couple others that had a similar point of view but were not articulated as well as the Fangraphs piece.
  19. Major League Ready
    IDK if they simply are not willing to sign a SP to a long-term deal. However, it's been a very long time since this team had so many positions covered by low-cost players. They project right at $100M for 2024 assuming they trade Kepler or don't pick-up his option. That's estimating Lopez at $8.5M. An additional $15M or $20M or even $25M for him or Nola / Severino / Mahle is just not a problem provided the other spots in the rotation are covered by some combination of Ryan / Ober / SWR / Varland / Canterino / Festa / Raya / Prielipp / Balazovic. That still leaves them room to cover arbitration increases and fill a BP spot. Farmer and Polanco will also be replaced by prearb players so that's another $13M that will become available. This FO has never been in this position, so I am not going to assume they won't sign someone when they have never been in a parallel situation. Nobody thought they would sign a $200M free agent either. The dream scenario for me is they get Nola next year. That gives them Nola / Lopez / Ryan and two of Paddack / Ober / SWR / Varland / Winder / Canterino / Balazovic and perhaps Festa / Prielipp and Raya by sometime during 2024. That should result in very good depth and a couple guys moving to the BP.
  20. Major League Ready
    I pay much more attention to what the national guys think. They are far more objective.
  21. Major League Ready
    It's nice to see that the some of the national writers believe this deal pretty heavily favors the Twins. I have been an advocate of trading Arrez for all the reasons mentioned here and the articles about the trade as long as the return was strong, and this was a very good return. I see it as fairly close to a wash short-term but two high ceiling / athletic prospects could make this very favorable long-term.
  22. Major League Ready
    Having a rotation of #3 starters gives you a good chance of making the post season. The problem is matching up in the post season once you get there. Arraez was just not good enough to get an Ace. It takes a package that is really going to hurt to get an ace and we can't make team's agree. They want to keep them as badly as we would like to acquire them. The return of a very good pitcher a top 100 prospect and a third player with a high ceiling is a very good return. Obviously, this trade has the potential to good badly just like any other trade. However, the addition of two high ceiling prospects provides the potential for this trade to be very productive trade for the Twins. I hate to lose Arraez but this is the type of deal, especially with Julien, Martin, and Lee getting close, that can make us better for many years.
  23. Major League Ready
    Will they try to extend him? Does this result in Martin or Julien making the team this spring.
  24. Major League Ready
    Pitchers get hurt. Texas traded Clause for Kluber and got nothing. SanDiego traded multiple players for Clevinger and got nothing. Sale has been hurt. Johnny Cueto was hurt or underperformed 5 of his 6 year contract, etc. There is some luck involved.
  25. Major League Ready
    Is an exact balance ideal. Wouldn't it would be advantageous to start the game with an extra RH bat if they had someone on the bench that fit that role and then substitute that person out later in the game as the situation dictates. They have an advantage in 2-3 ABs and then substitute later in the game back to a balanced line-up. When they make that substitution, they gain one more AB with a favorable match-up.
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