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Major League Ready

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Everything posted by Major League Ready

  1. Major League Ready
    We don't differ greatly but the two of us have a different idea of the relative importance free agency plays into building a contender. You generally present it as an absolute necessity. People here lose their minds when we don't get big names. The facts are that other clubs have done a much better job than the twins while literally never signing a high dollar free agent. What they have done better than the twins historically is trade established players for near ready MLB talent. For example, Cleveland did not go through a lengthy rebuild. They traded established players they could not extend. Oakland has done this consistently as has Tampa. We are starting to see this with the Twins. Duran and Alcala are just starting to make an impact and we will see what the Berrios trade yields. It just does not matter what they do in free agency until they produce talent. Somewhat ironic is the fact that the better they produce talent, the more discretionary dollars they have to spend on free agents or better yet extensions which generally speaking are much more productive per dollar spent. IE. Ramirez vs Correa
  2. Major League Ready
    No. Instead of getting better at the practices that have proven the most effective, let's follow strategies that have never been effective for teams in the bottom half of revenue. Perhaps we should more carefully examine what has worked for other teams. You say this approach but do you know the biggest difference between Cleveland / Tampa / Oaklands and Minnesota?
  3. Major League Ready
    I guess I should have prefaced Maeda with "assuming he is healthy". They might wait until the deadline and establish he is healthy. Ideally, Paddack will be back by then and add some depth. Kepler has decent value. He is not fetching a good SP but there is value in other forms. Established players are traded for prospects far more often than they are traded for other established players and that's the form a trade for Kepler would likely take.
  4. Major League Ready
    Gray is an UFA after this year according to Spotrac.
  5. Major League Ready
    Pay $12M of his salary and someone will take him.
  6. Major League Ready
    Here is where I was going with this. let's say they do trade Kepler. They could end up substantially below their payroll capacity. Spending the payroll room on basically buying a prospect or two would be nice.
  7. Major League Ready
    How about we trade a dozen balls for Donaldson and a good prospect and then flip Donaldson while retaining 60% of his contract cost.
  8. Major League Ready
    Kepler and Maeda get traded if they can find a decent return.
  9. Major League Ready
    I could only find 9 contracts of 8 or more years that have reached their conclusion for position players. I calculated the average WAR per year for the back half of these contracts. For contracts with an odd number of years, I used half of the middle year. The results may ease the pain of losing Correa on a 13 year contract. 7 of the 9 averaged less than 1 year over the last half of their contract. As ugly as the 8-10 years contracts have been, these 13 year contracts taking a player past age 40 are likely really ugly. fWAR bWAR Derek Jeter 4.42 4.16 Dave Winfield 1.98 2.22 Joey Votto 0.82 0.92 Alex Rodriguez 0.77 0.64 Robinson Cano 0.26 0.22 Albert Pujlos 0.15 0.21 Jason Hayward -0.05 0.30 Miguel Cabrera 2.60 -0.27 Prince Fileder -0.18 -0.18 Averge 1.20 0.91
  10. Major League Ready
    It would be huge if two of Varland / SWR / Winder prove they are here to stay over the course of 2023. That would give them 4 prearb starters plus Paddack at a modest sum. They could afford to sign anyone they want. Obviously, they still need to convince them to come here but they will have the money to spend.
  11. Major League Ready
    That's basically what Cohen is doing. Man it would be great to have an owner willing to operate at a loss of 10s of millions. We all share your wish! However, the other owners determine their budget based on how much revenue they produce, just like you and me and every other business on the planet, including non-profits. If I were to speculate on the budget without the benefit of projected revenue and operating costs, I would look at the fact the Twins revenue has been about $40M under league average the last few years, and hope they would be aggressive enough to spend league average.
  12. Major League Ready
    He was the best option available unless you want to give up the haul Oakland got for Murphy. There is a reason Oakland has the best winning percentage of any team outside the top 5 in revenue since the turn of the century. They got 4 MLB ready players for 2 years of Murphy. I will take Vazquez for 3/30 and look forward to finally having a great defensive catcher 4-5 days a week.
  13. Major League Ready
    After hearing / reading this statement many times, I wondered just how influential each method has been in the past among winning teams. So, I compiled data in the form of WAR by acquisition method from the best teams over the past 20 years. I have many examples from mid and small markets. I want to collect large market data for comparison. Then, after the holidays I will post the data showing the relative impact of each type of acquisition. I can tell you this .... Trading for prospects has been far more impactful than trading for established players for teams with below average revenue. Trading prospects for elite players is virtually non-existent among the examples I have gathered. The interesting thing about free agency is that the better a team is at producing prearb talent, the more budget they have for free agency. It would be accurate to say that player development enables or drives a team's ability to spend in free agency.
  14. Major League Ready
    Kepler does not have nearly the impact of an elite arm so they don't need to get back an elite arm for trading him for the trade to be a good move. What if they get an MLB ready catcher? IDK who that would be, but the point remains. Making room to play Wallner could (not should) improve the team regardless of the return. Those are the kind of moves that have made Oakland/Tampa successful.
  15. Major League Ready
    By far the most influential factor will be revenue increase/decrease. Inflation is not going to drive revenue up. It will likely have the opposite effect and it will drive up operating costs. The good news is they are getting a $30M from the sale of remaining BAM ownership. They could spend an extra $30M this year with the understanding there would be no money available to replace Gray & Mahle and of course they need to cover arbitration increases.
  16. Major League Ready
    Not that much. How many passed balls per game? How does Narvaez or any other catcher compare in that stat. I would assume working with pitchers and calling a game is more important than either of these stats but that's a really tough one to quantify.
  17. Major League Ready
    Did you read the explanation Chpettit gave? Rather than double quote I just inserted it below. “But the RBI stat isn't measuring what people who like it claim it is. It's not at all hard to find BA with RISP stats. Or % of runners driven in stats. Or any number of combinations of outs, bases occupied, game situation, etc. stats that show who the actual clutch hitters are while RBI does nothing of the sort. For example: In 2022 Jose Abreu drove in 75 runs while Jose Miranda drove in 66. However, Abreu had 679 PAs to Miranda's 483. Miranda drove in 16.1% of the baserunners he had on during his 483 PAs. Abreu drove in 13.8% of his. Guy on 3rd, less than 2 outs? Abreu drove in 39.4% of his runners, Miranda drove in 47.2% of his. If I catch 200 walleyes over the course of a summer and you catch 150 am I the better fisherman. Well, if you fished 15 days and I fished 20 days, I would say no. I just had more opportunity to fish. What are we really looking for? We want a player to convert opportunities, right? Two players can drive in the exact same number of runs where one has 50% more opportunity. Those players are not equally adept at driving in runs because they both drove in the same number of runs. Measuring the percentage of conversions as Chepettit19 has explained here is a far better measure of productivity than simply using total RBI. Put a different way, using the one stat that actually counts runs does not provide any measure of effectiveness unless it's pair with the number of opportunities to drive in those runs.
  18. Major League Ready
    Over 2-3 seasons, I will take Miranda and the nearly $19M per year in salary to be invested elsewhere. The difference is they can sign Rodon vs a retread. Miranda plus Rodon >>>>> Abreau and retread. For those that would prefer a couple high leverage RPs ... That works too.
  19. Major League Ready
    Great post! There are obviously stats that are much better measures of effectiveness driving in runs. Apparently, this is not lost on most "stat heads".
  20. Major League Ready
    There is no arguing they did not get enough production out of the corner OFers. That is a very different argument than suggesting letting Rosario go was a mistake. He was horrible last year. He clearly would have made the team worse. The players they put out there were all better but got injured yet somehow your conclusion is the FO made a mistake. That conclusion sounds like you developed an opinion when they let him go and then just ignored what actually happened.
  21. Major League Ready
    Rosario had a negative 1.1 WAR last year. How is it a problem they moved on from a guy who was one of the worst corner OFers in all of MLB?
  22. Major League Ready
    The better option is not necessarily another single player. The question is could they spread $300M to alternatives that yield greater production. Can they come up with a DJ LeMahieu who in 2019 produced more WAR for 1/3 of the money or another Nelson Cruz who produced more than double per dollar spent compared to Correa or can they extend a player like the Guardians did in Ramirez and get equivalent production for a $20M / AAV and not have the end of contract burden which almost always means very little production for a lot of money. Who will be better next year. Who knows? When you are at the very top of the pay scale there is a good chance someone produces the same for less but Correa is as good a bet as any. That’s not the real issue. If he gets a 9-year deal, who will be better for the last 5 years. History would suggest a lot of free agents will be better for less but the even better alternative is extending players like Ramirez, Acuna, and many others. That’s likely the much better investment.
  23. Major League Ready
    If it's true that there is considerable trade interest, why is everyone assuming they tendered him a contract because they want to keep him? Isn't it possible the trade interest has them believing they can get something back so they chose to tender him a contract rather than non-tendering him?
  24. Major League Ready
    Duplicate post deleted
  25. Major League Ready
    It seems pretty simple. I really liked Urshella but they got a guy with more defensive flexibility and an extra year of control for $3M less plus a prospect. How can this be a bad move?
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