Major League Ready

I would assume that the technology is sophisticated enough to program any unwanted implications out. The strike zone could be programed to interpret whatever ideal is wanted. If they wanted to "round the corners" I am sure the strike zone could be programmed accordingly. In other words, whatever we interpret to be the perfect strike zone for the good of the game could be called with near 100% accuracy. Bad calls can really change an AB and consequently the game. Why would we want to retain these errors. The automated strike zone can't get here quick enough for me.

Some of the question marks for this season are looking very good and that's a pretty big deal. Trevor Larnach and Jorge Alcala are looking like they will provide a significant boost this year. Larnach has recognized other teams are very reluctant to throw him fast balls and he is not swinging at breaking stuff off the plate. This looks sustainable. Alcala's raw stuff looks great. Also sustainable. Then, there is Gallo. I thought this was a decent move from the start. It's way too early to proclaim Gallo a success story but so far he looks a lot more like Gallo of 2021 than Gallo of 2022. This could be a big net positive. Now we need a healthy Polanco and Kirilloff. If those guys get going along with a resurgent Gallo and a break-out from Larnach we will all be in for a very fun season. BTW ... I am not a bit worried about Sands or Pagan dragging us down. They will not see any action with the game on the line and I suspect they are replaced in rather short order if they don't get it together.

In the order they are likely to be here at the end of the season. Pagan will get 12-15 appearances to look the part. Then, he will be replaced as soon as be replaced as soon as one of Henriquez, Winder or Megill pitch well enough to prompt ahis replacement. Taylor at first glance seems likely to stick around. However, the optimistic view or best case is Buxton is playing 4-5 days a week in CF by mid-May. Let’s hope Lewis and/or Martin replace Taylor by July 1. They are more complete players and more versatile defensively so we will get more out of the roster spot. Solano is a great bench player but the ideal scenario is a healthy Polanco and Julien playing so well they can’t keep in AAA and Solano is moved to make room. Maeda depends on how well he bounces back. The Twins have Ober/Varland, and SWR waiting for a spot. A good offer at the deadline might be more intriguing than putting Maeda in the pen especially if a couple of Alcala/Henriguez/Winder/Megill are looking good. Gallo: 2021 Gallo is not going anywhere unless they get an offer they can’t refuse at the deadline. If he looks like 2022 Galo he is traded or released by the deadline. If he is midway between those two years his fate will be a product of the health and performance of Kirilloff/Larnach/Gordon/Lewis/Julien. Mahle: Lots of variables with Mahle starting with health. A healthy Mahle is an extension candidate. An underperforming Mahle could be moved in favor of Varland or SWR if they are having a great year. The twins need to find 3 replacements in next year’s rotation. Gray is a very similar situation to Mahle.

It’s much easier against LHP to come up with a lead-off hitter. Correa, Farmer, Solano, and Garlick all hit LHP very well. A friend of mine saw Polanco on the back fields a couple days ago and said he was smashing the ball. He seems like the most likely solution short-term. Julien should be a good option but I don’t see them throwing him into that role until he proves he is ready for MLB. What about Larnach? He has looked like their best LH bat out of the gate. Not the guy I think of but he has looked very good.

He is on the opening day roster because Henriguez and Winder are injured. That situation is likely to rectify itself relatively soon and Sands will be in AAA. I do think there is reasonable upside if he gains better command.

Time to renew my Milb streaming package. My top 10 things I will be watching / hoping to see at AAA this year. 1) Royce ready to join the big club. 2) How does Julien look at 2B and where else do they play him. 3) Louie Varland dominating. 4) Same as #3 with SWR. 5) A healthy Austin Martin picking up where he left off in the AFL 6) A rebound from Jordan Balazovic. 7) Better command from Trevor Megill. 8) An early return of a healthy Matt Canterino. 9) Do they try to develop Bechtold as a catcher. 10) A reduced K rate from Matt Wallner.

I like the idea of trading for a catcher but no way would I trade Ober when we are going to lose three SPs next year. I was an advocate of trading Maeda during the off-season if the opportunity was present. Ideally, they trade one of the short-term assets (Maeda/Mahle/Gray) to a likely contender willing to pay a premium because they have an immediate need. Mahle and Maeda are going to need to establish themselves as healthy before anyone is going to offer much for them. This could be interesting in 2-3 months, especially if Varland and SWR are killing it at AAA.

You are really reaching. Edwin Diaz and a player that has literally never played an inning of professional baseball are two entirely different things. A player getting paid while they are injured is an entirely different thing. BTW .... I don't know if it's fair that Diaz gets paid when he is not paying but there is ABSOLUTELY no way the players would ever concede that benefit so there is no point in discussing it as a potential solution. I don't know that there is any real threat of players gambling their career on playing independent baseball. However, did you notice this model allows for an infinite degree of variation to account for such concerns. You could start the bonuses at $3M and you still have an $800K at the end of the 2nd round while paying every player after the 6th round $50K. This model still allows for a $30K increase to every full season Milb player. 1st and 2nd round draft picks are not giving up $1-3M to play independent ball.

How many are going to play another sport? This is a hyperbolic argument. We hear about every top prospect that could be drafted into another sport and they are a tiny percentage of the players that are actually top prospects in 2 sports. Name 5 from the last 10 years. Then, how many of those players with the potential to earn hundreds of millions will decide based on their draft bonus. If they are not in the top half of the first round, the money is not that consequential especially if there is any indication they are more likely to succeed in baseball. Their perceived relative ability to succeed in one sport over the other is more likely to influence their decision. What difference does it make if a player stays for another year of college or plays independent ball. How does that impact the product we pay to see? How does it change MLB at all? Why should players get paid on perceived value? They are going to make an insane amount of money if they actually live up to the perception so why should they be paid on perception. How is it fair that Mark Appel get's $6.35M to fail and many prospects get less than $100K to succeed? This union is totally focused on stars and the rest get the scraps. If the money paid to perceived stars that fail was allocated to all players, Milb players would be well compensated. It sure seems to pay the enormous money when players actually earn it while taking much better care of all the other players who make these league possible.

I would advocate that a larger piece of the pie goes to Milb players regardless of how they fund it but make no mistake where that money would come from. Like every other business, if the spend more in one area, they will spend less in another. The owners are not going change their total spending level. They would reallocate MLB salary expenditures. That's why the players association has not made higher Milb pay a priority.

I always assumed the players association promoted the current system because why would the owners care if the money was distributed more evenly? They also get rid of the PR problem associated with low Milb wages.

Really, how many top athletes can get drafted high enough in another professional sport that this would matter. We are talking about maybe one person a year and a signing bonus of $3-7M is not necessarily going to sway the few guys that get drafted that high because they have a good shot at making two or three hundred million. Most are still going to go wherever they think they have the best shot a enormous wealth. Beside that fact, this has absolutely nothing to do with what "the best players" make. We are talking about signing bonuses before a prospective player every plays one inning of Milb much less what they make as MLB player. This would not impact one iota the compensation for MLB players. Quit paying guys like Mark Appel $6M before they earn a thing and you could afford to play EVERY player a decent wage.

I thought about the guys with other options. Is the game really going to suffer in 1 guy every couple of years elects to go to the NFL? Consider the tradeoff. The reason I came up with this model is I was wondering how we could pay every single Milb player a good wage. The guys that earn the big bonuses are obviously the guys that become great players but those guys are going to make generational wealth and retire in their 30S. Why is the system all about them while ignoring the other 95% of players. The model I am talking about pays every player after round 6 a $50K signing bonus and more than double the current proposed system. Just to be clear, not the existing system but would double the proposed system. AAA players would make close to $100K. It would be very easy to take compensate every Milb player quite well. The players and owners have elected to pay a select few a lot and the rest very little. All they need to do is reallocate.

The problem is not how much teams spend on Milb players. The problem is that two-thirds of the money goes to 10% of the players. Last year MLB team paid out $291,408,490 in draft bonuses and as we all know most of those players fail. There is an alternative. If they made the max bonus $1M and dropped the bonus just 1 percent per draft slot, they could increase the average pay to Milb players by 48,706.53. If they made the max bonus $500K, the increase would be 69,228.29 on average. In other words, AAA players would get paid roughly $100K not the proposed $38,500 assuming AAA players would get paid a little more than A/A+ players. Obviously, this could be tweaked. If you prefer to have a 2M top bonus, the pay increase would be $36,594.33 at all levels. If you make the increase $50K at AAA and $22K at A ball you end up with roughly a $67K salary for AAA.

I am not sure what to make of Paddack either. My take is they have Lopez / Ryan / Ober next year and will need to fill two spots and come up with some depth. Paddack / Varland and SWR are the most likely candidates. One or two of Festa / Raya and Prielipp could be ready too. Perhaps not to start the season but by mid season. Dobnak and Balazovic are the long shots. Henriguez could end up being long-relief and a spot starter. Where I am going with this is that they don't need to sign a guy to fill the rotation. If they sign a free agent SP it should be a top of the rotation guy.

Where this gets trick is if the guy they really want to extend is Lopez, especially if Lopez is inclined to sign here. They still need to fill 3 spots. Of course, kind of have an extra (Ober) right now and Paddack will be back.

Coulombe has appeared in 194 ML league games has a whopping total .5 WAR. He isn't going to win games either. I will take my chances with Winder / Megill / Henriquez or even Dobnak who are all much younger and can be a long-term solution. Varland / SWR would also be better than Coulombe and it would be a way to prepare them for a role next year and several years to come. Coulombe has no value beyond being a band aid if several guys get injured.

Perhaps because they could use any of Ober / Winder / Varland / SWR / Sanchez / Dobnak / as multi inning RPs if they need more depth plus they have Megill / Henriguez / Ortega / DeLeon and several other non-40 man guys in STP.

Are you saying two will be gone because they will resign one of Mahle / Gray or Maeda?

I would love to see the trio of Ober / Varland and SWR pitch so well that they force or at least influence the Twins to trade one of the pending free agent SPs. Maeda seems the most likely of the three to get traded. The thought being they need to test these young guys this year given we have three pending FAs.

I also thought Jax looked good this spring. His breaking balls look improved.

That would mean a healthy rotation for most of the year. I am OK with that scenario. Ober can be brought back the last couple months of the season to strengthen the BP in the unlikely event all of our SPs remain healthy.

You could make the same statement had they signed Correa / Judge / Turner / Verlander and Scherzer. You could say Houston appears to be a good team based on this logic. Until they play the games it only "appears" they are better. This is fan speak rhetoric as I see it. Injuries happen and players sometimes underperform but that as of this moment it's a better team than last year.

So we should not care or be pleased that they improved the roster because games are not played on paper?

His odds are looking good. Hoffman and DeLeon sent down yesterday.