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Major League Ready

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Everything posted by Major League Ready

  1. Major League Ready
    Failed ventures are your example of the twins benefiting? You are really reaching.
  2. Major League Ready
    That's a low bar.
  3. Major League Ready
    Looking a little deeper, according to the star tribune (Phil Miller) Hoffman has several opt outs. I am pulling for DeLeon. He could soak up some innings and protect the rest of the BP.
  4. Major League Ready
    According to MLB trade rumors Sanchez is the only twins player with an opt out. Players with opt outs
  5. Major League Ready
    Sorry, that's not how it works. These variations are not cumulative. If you are off 15% of travel cost and off 15% on facilities cost you don't add them together. If travel cost is 10 of total operating cost your estimate would be off by 1.5%. If you are off on every estimate by 15% you are off 15% in total, Given we know the exact amount for player payroll and draft bonuses. There is zero variation on over 50% of total cost. Therefore, if we were of 15% on everything else, we would be off by a total of 7.5%.
  6. Major League Ready
    What forms of spending could be channeled to Pohlad owned companies? 60-65% of their spending is on players. The next largest expense would be non-player personnel. They don't appear to own hotels where the team stays? They don't own the networks where advertising would appear. The entire gain from owning an advertising firm would be the net gain from one account (the twins). If that advertising firms has a 10% bottom line the net gain is 10% of the fees paid to manage their account not the entire spend. I would assume they lease office space from United properties but that's not exactly an enormous expenditure relatively speaking. Do you have any examples or is this just pulling this out of the air?
  7. Major League Ready
    I don’t think they have painted themselves into a corner, Doc. Mahle / Gray / Gallo / Taylor / Pagan / Maeda / Solano come off next year. That’s $44M. They also have a team option with Kepler which would bring the total to $52.5M. They are also likely to replace Polanco in the next year or two so we are up to $60M. The team has a good chance to be better for the next several years which would increase revenue and let’s hope they can increase TV revenue as well. Of the group leaving, only Gray and Mahle will be difficult to replace and you could even say Mahle has yet to contribute. One of the pitching prospects needs to step up and they can use half of the $60M coming off to land a very good free agent SP.
  8. Major League Ready
    It’s not that hard to come up with a relatively accurate P&L for a MLB team. 1) We have a very good revenue estimate. The only major form of revenue not reported by the league is major sponsors and that can be likely be found in reporting from the sponsor organization. 2) We have a very accurate account of payroll / domestic draft bonuses and international bonuses. I am sure Forbes has an accurate estimates of player benefits. The only thing I could find estimated player benefits at 11.5% of payroll. This includes medical and retirement. 3) Let’s use $140M payroll. Add $14M for draft bonuses and $16M in player benefits and you have $170M. The Twins had $268M in revenue in 2021. Therefore, we have a very accurate estimate of nearly two-thirds of expenses and an even more accurate revenue estimate. 4) The other third of expenses are comprised of operating costs. It’s not that hard to get a list of employees. Their salaries / benefits can be estimated with a fair degree of accuracy. Office space, technology, travel, etc can all be estimated with 10%. Given this portion of the expense represents one-third of total operating expense (excluding player expense) , which represents one-third of revenue and the variance is 3-4% of revenue.
  9. Major League Ready
    Of course not. We just need to understand that any type of sustained success is literally dependent upon producing more wins per dollar spent as compared to top revenue teams. The point is there is often disregard here for the need to produce per dollar spent when in fact it's not possible to be successful without producing more per dollar spent. That's why other leagues have salary caps.
  10. Major League Ready
    I see the no "wins per dollar" statement here fairly often. The problem with taking that stance is that it's literally impossible for a team like the Twins / Guardians to produce more wins than the top tier revenue teams unless they dramatically outperform those teams in terms of wins per dollar spent. Wins added per dollar spent is one of the more meaningful metrics for teams in the bottom half of spending.
  11. Major League Ready
    No, it was your argument when you stated that by my logic we should have traded Polanco at his peak value. That assumes that every player should be traded at peak value regardless of a host of other considerations, starting if the team can replace that player as Tampa did when they traded Adames. Of course, the relative likelihood of actually contending comes into play and DJL44 pointed out a number of other considerations.
  12. Major League Ready
    You are only seeing what you want to see. He was acquired as "future value" Did he contribute to winning? Your logic only holds up if you position it such that EVERY player MUST be traded for value. I certainly am not saying that every player should universally be traded before reaching free agency. I am saying that history is crystal clear regarding the role in trading for future value and you are completely ignoring that history to suit your narrative. The "world series" argument just further illustrates an unwillingness to acknowledge hard facts as does ignoring the Cleveland and Oakland examples. Here another, the 2021 Rays 100 games. 6 of their 9 top position players were acquired as prospects or unproven MLB players. The only thing you are considering is the current year. That's your purgative as a fan. For a front office that view would be gross incompetence.
  13. Major League Ready
    It goes without saying that the current year chances of winning are not enhanced by a trade for “future value”. However, there are endless examples of trades for future value that made future teams into playoff teams. Dansby Swanson was the highest WAR player for Atlanta last year. How about last year’s Cleveland team. 5 of Cleveland’s top 7 position players were acquired by trading established players for prospects. Gimenez produced 6 fWAR. They also had 4 pitchers that produced more than 2 WAR, and two of them were “future value” trades. Those players will have an impact on 4-6 years of contending. The 2019 Oakland team is another example. 3 of the top 5 position players were acquired as prospects or unproven players. On the pitching side, Bassit and Montas were acquired as MLB ready prospects. They had less than 30IP at the MLB level. I don’t know how to categorize Hendricks. He was never all that good until 2019. Trading for prospects has been instrumental in building many good teams.
  14. Major League Ready
    You think the combination of Gordon/Solano/Farmer and eventually Lewis is up to 7 less wins?
  15. Major League Ready
    The league hiring executives from RSNs is pretty telling. It would appear they are gearing up to take control of the broadcast product and how it is distributed. Understanding all the financial and legal implications is a deep well. I presume that's why the first hire was Billy Chambers. If you are looking at different options for a "future state", you need someone like Chambers to oversee that analysis. This is their chance to reconstruct the current model in a manner that makes it much easier to get ALL of the games no matter where you live.
  16. Major League Ready
    I did not find any detailed accounts of the option, but this could be a club option that automatically vests with 550 PAs. According to this article the team controls the 2024-25 options. Polanco Option
  17. Major League Ready
    Hopefully Vazquez hits LHP like he did last year. That's not always been the case but last year his wRC+ against lefties was 130. Sanchez was brutal against LHP last year so there is the potential for a big gain at the catcher position. The combination of Solano 1B/Farmer 2B /Miranda 3B /Correa ss should be really good against LHP. Taylor's wRC+ against L:HP is 92. While he's not an offensive solution, the combination of Buxton/Taylor and either Gallo or Kepler in the OF will make up for his modest offensive production.
  18. Major League Ready
    Just took a look at the WBC stats. Julien has a .667 OBP and the highest OPS in the entire tournament. Super small sample size but he sure looks legit.
  19. Major League Ready
    Have to agree that any discussion of success in these terms should start with Miranda and Duran. Nick Gordon was an average player last year. I would not really call that a success or a failure from a #5 overall pick. The good news is he has a shot at becoming a better story now that he is healthy. I am more inclined to call Ober a success story given his draft position. Ober and Jax are still so early in their careers that their relative success is yet to be determined. Let's hope they take the next step this year. While we are hoping, let's hope to add Lewis / Julien / Varland, SWR and Moran to this list next year.
  20. Major League Ready
    Way too early to answer this question. I see them waiting until August to assess the health and performance of Lopez / Ryan / Ober / Paddack at the end of year. This is especially true if Lopez is the one they like the best or feel most confident in extending. Then, part two will be how they feel about Varland and SWR to start 24. Then, do some other guys like Festa / Balazovic / Raya or Canterino start to look like they can be part 2024 and beyond at some point during the season. This will be much clearer in 6 months. I think it takes market rate to get them now or later so they are better off waiting until they end of the season or the off-season to determine what they need. That puts them in apposition to take a run at Nola and Severino too. It's always a long-shot to get the higher end free agent SPs but why not take a shot and have a fallback position of Mahle/Gray?
  21. Major League Ready
    Let's hope Larnach pulls an "Arraez".
  22. Major League Ready
    29 years old is a crusty veteran?
  23. Major League Ready
    This will be a lot of fun to watch playout if these prospects perform as we hope.
  24. Major League Ready
    I am all for building a team with prospects but you have two potential places (2B/3B) for him to play. Teams that are contending don't replace a player like Polanco with a guy that literally has yet to prove anything above A ball. He is not coming up to play 1st. That leaves Miranda who so far has proven to be an impactful MLB player. You don't replace him either unless he has a significant sophomore slump. Then, add that both Lewis and Julien are both well ahead of him in terms of proving they are ready. It would take a couple injuries to the above players or Miranda regressing badly and one of Correa or Polanco going down which would be "things going horribly wrong".
  25. Major League Ready
    Raya has zero IPs above low A. There is zero chance he debuts this year. Lee has 8 PAs at AA. Things would have to go horribly wrong with the twins for him to see any time at the ML level. Lewis is the most likely IMO because he can play several positions. Solano is the most likely to get forced out by either Lewis or Julien. I would love for either Walner or Larnach to play well- enough to take the starting job away from Kepler in the manner Arraez took over for Schoop. Ideally, Max is playing well enough to be traded but one of the prospects is good enough to force it.
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