Major League Ready

Gray / Mahle / Ryan / Ober / Maeda / Varland / SWR / Paddack / Winder / Dobnak At some point it's time to invest innings in guys that will, negate any need to sign guys like Wacha for the next several years. Signing Wacha with Varland and SWR ready with at least 5 guys ahead of them makes no sense. Those two guys should be given a chance. With a little Luck Winder or Dobnak will earn a shot too.

Mike is right. I would add that even the big markets have to develop talent. The Dodgers, Astros, have been great a developing talent. The Red Sox and Cardinals had a run too. Those are the only big market teams that have compiled more 90 win seasons. The Phillies, Mets, and Tigers have not. Neither have the Giants of late which is why they are rather desperately trying to buy a team. The White Sox and Jays had not developed talent until lately. The Twins have not drafted / produced as much well-above average talent. They also have not made the Berrios type trades nearly as often as Cleveland, Oakland and Tampa. It might be fair to say they just have not those types of players that can bring back the long list of very good players that have made these 3 teams very good. The draft unraveled nicely for us last year and then we got lucky this year. Let's hope a bunch of this young talent comes together this year and we can have an extended run of good teams.

I had just graduated from college. It was great but no way in hell as a fan would I trade KC's 25 years of futility with one 90 win season for what Oakland / Cleveland and Tampa have provided in terms of a quality team to watch. If a WS is all that matters to you, that's your prerogative. I won't get that wrapped up in a goal that should be expected to be achieved once every 30 years if we get our prorated share. Give me a 90+ win team as often as possible and I will take my chances in October. BTW .... The Blue Jays / Phillies / Tigers / White Sox / Mets / Reds / Brewers / Rockies / Orioles / Pirates / Marlins and Padres have all had 4 or less 90-win seasons this century. The big market teams simply have a huge advantage.

That's fair. We definitely have a different definition of success. I collected data since the turn of the century. Success can't be defined in one season for me. I watch 100+ games every year and I want to see a good product as many years as possible. Since the turn of the century, the Royals have had one 90 win season and they have the lowest win percentage in all of MLB. Oakland has (10) 90-win seasons and the 4th best winning percentage in MLB. Cleveland also has (10) 90-win seasons. Tampa has 8. It's not even remotely close for me. 3 weeks of a successful playoff run is not preferable to 20 years of watching a miserable team.

You only see what you want to see. Berrios "level" since being traded has been below replacement level. Gray is the only reasonable example of them replacing Berrios given the timeframe and circumstances and he was far better than Berrios. Going forward, who knows but Berrios level so far is below Chris Archer. Louie Varland provided .9 more bWAR in a handful of starts. They added all of those other players in a misguided attempt to win the division and they would have not been in any better position if they had Berrios last year given his performance. If I were to describe the impact of trading Berrios to date, he cost us absolutely nothing in terms of contributing to winning. Long-term, we exchanged Chase Petty for SWR and Austin Martin and roughly $21M year which obviously can be spent elsewhere. I like their odds of getting equivalent value out of the $105M and I would trade SWR and Martin for Petty in a heartbeat at this point.

There are 3 teams in the bottom half of revenue that have been far more successful than the other teams in this revenue class. The Twins are the 4th most successful. Cleveland / Oakland and Tampa's have been by far the most successful and an enormous part of that success has been trading players like Berrios. You are insisting on a premise that history has shown to be patently false. These trades have risk as well as enormous upside. Who knows how SWR and Berrios will compare but if SWR matches Berrios, the net gain for the Twins is Martin and roughly $90M+ (the $105M paid to Berrios over the next 5 years lest the cost of SWR's 1st 5 years) to spend on whatever free agent they can attract. Berrios had negative WAR last year so he is not a sure thing. If they can match whatever Berrios produces with the "Berrios money", The net gain is SWR and Martin. Why is it not feasible they could sign another SP with the Berrios money that will be just as productive. Trading Berrios has much more upside than extending him. I am a big fan of taking on the risk of extending players early when it leads to a below market rate for accepting the risk. Berrios was not willing. Signing him was no more valuable or crucial than signing any other free agent SP of the same caliber.

Are you thinking timeline or value? I could see either or both but that timing might be ideal, especially if we believe Varland and SWR are ready.

Are you saying Cleveland has not benefited greatly by trading these players or are you saying just don't care if it's worked or not. You still believe they must retain Jose Berrios as an example.

As you are well-aware, teams trading for players like Arraez and Kepler generally don't want to trade established players. Would you be willing to trade them for AAA guys or unproven ML players like Cleveland got in Gimenz / Rosario / Naylor and Clause?

You are doing a great job of illustrating my point. Cleveland has a very well-documented record that shows their sustained success has been greatly influenced by making Berrios type trades. Yet, your post indicates disdain because the result is not immediate which is my point. Fans don't want to follow the practices that have made Cleveland and for that matter Oakland and Tampa successful. You want immediate impact. Here is how I see the Berrios trade as of today. I would guess Berrios will bounce back but the fact that he had negative bWAR does not scream mistake. SWR could end up producing as well as Berrios over the next 6-7 years. This is how I would take Cleveland's strategy and adapt it to our situation next year. I will take the roughly $21M AAV over the next 5 years and add $9M AAV and sign someone like Nola. I am not saying they will I am saying this could be done. For $11M you upgrade from Berrios and add SWR and Martin. That easily has the potential to produce 10 WAR for $11M. Cleveland's success has been a product of executing these deals.

Clevinger was acquired via trade in 2014. He debuted in 2016 at age 25. They eventually traded him for Austin Hedges, Josh Naylor and Own Miller. Kluber also debuted in 2016. They got him by trading Jake Westbrook in 2013. They eventually traded Kluber for Emmanuel Clase who was ML ready. They acquired Carlos Corrasco for Cliff Lee. Cleveland acquired Lee a year before he debuted for Bortolo Colon. Colon was acquired in the international draft. So, the way that went was they drafted Colon and eventually traded him for Cliff Lee who they eventually traded for Carlos Corrasco who they eventually traded along with Francisco Lindor for Amed Rosario and Andres Gimenez. The two of them produced 10 WAR last year. Trevor Bauer and Bryan Shaw were ML ready when Cleveland acquired them by trading Sin Soo Choo and Tony Sipp. Konnoe Pilkington was also acquired as a prospect. I keep hearing people calling for them to do what they did in Cleveland. However, much of Cleveland's most important pitching pipeline as well as their current position players were acquired by trading established players for prospects. Basically, they did several Jose Berrios type trades. There was a great deal of angst here when they did that trade. Some people are still complaining and saying they were not serious about building a contender when in fact similar trades had been a huge part of Cleveland’s success over the past couple of decades. They would have been a lot closer to the Royals over the past 20 years if not for trading established players for prospects.

Nor any other team in the bottom half of revenue. There were 14 deals with a total value over $60M. Ranked by value, they went to the teams listed below. 10 of the 14 went to NY, Philly and Chicago. 6 of them to NY. How many of these players went to teams that did not have significantly more revenue than the twins. SanDiego is the lone outlier. The big markets get these players every year. Then, in order to avoid a strike, the owners gave into player demands for a significantly higher luxury tax threshold and they did not increase the rate of taxation. This was the certain result. Why are we wondering why our team or any similar team do not get the prize free agents? This is the way it’s going to be unless the owners demand more parity and that will all but certainly result in a strike by the players. Aaron Judge NYY Carlos Correa NYM Trea Turner PHI Xander Bogaerts SD Jacob deGrom TEX Dansby Swanson CHC Carlos Rodon NYY Brandon Nimmo NYM Edwin Diaz NYM Willson Contreras STL Justin Verlander NYM Andrew Benintendi CHW Taijuan Walker PHI Jameson Taillon CHC Chris Bassitt TOR

This and the fact that we are talking about something that requires we be fully informed and have specific expertise to provide an informed opinion. Considering these things makes for a wasted opportunity to assert someone is incompetent.

You realize this is a Milb signing, right? Minor league deals for guys like this are a no-lose situation.

The players change for me if the list is strictly focused on 2023. They are once again not going to be serious contenders so the guys I would put at the top of the list are the players with upside and the players under team control get more weight. Their ability to contribute to building an actual contender is how I would define the most important to step up. Here is my top 10. Alex Kirilloff – He could be toast and he could be a #2-4 hitter for the next several years. He is #1 for me. Buxton – It would be easy to argue he is the most important. Our win/loss record with or without him supports that argument. The only reason I put Kirilloff first is that the range of value we might get from him is so immense. Royce Lewis – I would not be opposed ranking Lewis the most important. Superstar upside at a position that is begging for someone to step into. SWR or Louie Varland or both – These two guys stepping up in 2023 would be a huge boost to this team for 6-10 years. Having Ryan / Ober / SWR and Ryan under team control for the next 5-7 years would allow the team to spend big on one free agent SP instead of filling holes with the type of free agents we have seen for the last several years. Jorge Alcala – We have not got much out of him yet but he has the potential to be a reliable high leverage RP. He is under team control until 2026. Larnach or Wallner – One of these guys stepping up and producing at a higher level than Kepler has given us would be big. They would be above Alcala if considered separately but the fact there are two guys for one spot mitigates the importance the have individually. Josh Winder – Is he a ML pitcher or not? He looked very good in the minors and he looked good in his first handful of starts. Winder stepping up even in a BP role would be big for the next several years. Austin Martin – Would be a great contributor if he follows the path of Royce Lewis after a great AFL league performance. Matt Canterino – He has the stuff to be an impact pitcher. Will we get nothing or a great player. Canterino stepping up in 2023 would be big. Ryan Jeffers – Jeffers sure seems to have more potential and he is likely going to be here for several years in some capacity.

I definitely think you have pointed out a whole other aspect of "Cohen's madness" People with this pedigree don't just burns 10s of millions or 100s of millions of dollars. Now, part of what he is doing is no doubt a product of being a fan, but I have a very hard time believing this is not being done without consideration for the net monetary effect. If it were being done in a market without the upside you pointed out, I might believe it was mostly about being a fan. Not the case here.

Be prepared for a strike. I could be wrong but didn't the league propose a more aggressive tax. I know they proposed a lower threshold. There were still a lot of players that did not want to accept the deal they got which was far more than I thought would be offered. Keep in mind, the floor would have to be set so that the lowest revenue team could hit it. Is that going to have any impact beyond the bottom 4-5 teams? Will a floor serve fans. Remember when we were out of in previous years? Did we want a mediocre veteran get AB or IPs? No, we wanted players that could possibly be part of the solution. Then, those teams could load up on high end free agent RPs and trade them at the deadline or other such shenanigans. They could have made the current system work. The penalties needed to escalate faster and the threshold should have gone up more modestly. Instead of a floor, they could have done something like a penalty for not spending revenue sharing. Perhaps they could distribute 50 of the penalty to prearb players and the other 50% to the teams that spend the largest portion of their revenue sharing. Obviously, that's not easy to figure out but doable. None of it matters unless we are willing to go through a strike because they players are not having it.

I have been thinking about Cohen's approach for a while. I am not so sure he does not believe that he can lose a couple hundred million over the next 4-5 years and in the process build revenues to a level that increases the franchise vale by 3 or 4 times that amount. Your post illustrates why that is possible. Not to mention he can write off the operating losses and not realize the gains until he sells.

My guess is that there will be a contract provision that addresses time lost to the specific concern. In other words, Boras will say OK, if he loses time due to this specific problem, compensation is altered accordingly. He will attempt to keep the rest of the contract as close to the original agreement as possible.

Great post Doc. It's quite apparent the only concern for many fans is right now. A mid-market team trading away the future for a final piece is one thing but we are not remotely in that position. We are the anthesis of looking for final pieces. Even if we did trade for "final pieces" Gray / Maeda and Mahle are free agents next year and we are back to looking for pitching. Anyone else tired of that position? The only way this team succeeds beyond 2023 is if the young pitchers step up so let's give them that opportunity. If they get the opportunity to succeed, they have 5 low cost SPs next year. (Ryan / Ober / Varland / SWR and Paddack) Sounds like Cleveland with a payroll budget of an extra $20-30M to spend on final pieces once you figure out what those pieces need to be. Aaron Nola sounds pretty good at this moment. I guess you could say the same for young position players (Lewis / Lee / Kirilloff / Larnach / Wallner / Martin and Julien). Trading for short-term assets was a very bad decision last year. I sure hope they don't repeat that mistake. Who's place would Lopez take? Ober? How many wins is that worth? How is that a net gain over Arrez? Cleveland got Amed Rosario and Andres Gimenez who had 6 WAR last year. They were both MLB ready when Cleveland got them. That's the kind of trade that impacts a franchise and not for a year or two but at least six years (as Mike pointed out) and that's the kind of player you extend. Instead of adding another good but unspectacular SP that does very little to change our trajectory, I would much rather see them trade Arraez for a prospect that can truly impact this franchise.

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We heard the "they are in 1st place" logic over and over. The fact is they were not close to being a serious contender given the number of injuries prior to the deadline. They had been below 500 for June and July. How does that make us a contender? They probably set the franchise back far more by trading all of those assets and not trading Correa than they did by not signing Correa. You can always spend the $315M elsewhere. They would have a boatload of prospects that would have been better spent in the off-season on longer terms assets.

I was a supporter of the Urshela / Donaldson trade when it was being criticized. That said, I see it the same way. However, I would add the possibility Kirilloff is back. Then there is nowhere to play Miranda for certain.

I know I am hoping the kid lights it up at AAA to start the season and takes over by mid-May. He might actually be an exciting player. Let Gordon and farmer split it for the 1st 6 weeks.

I wonder if there is any chance they give Martin a shot after a great fall league. I am not advocating, just wondering. I could see Gordon holding down that spot until Lewis is back.