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Major League Ready

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  1. Major League Ready
    They have shown they can't acquire pitching? Ryan / Duran / Alcala / Maeda / Gray / Mahle / Odorizzi and Lopez. IDK if they can draft pitching but they can definitely acquire it. Why would you attempt to define their value in the contracts they received? We have the actual results which clearly show they were not good enough. Sano and Rosario regressed badly. Garver has a career WAR of 6.6 and 3.9 came in 2019. Gibson was never better than a 4 when he was here and IDK why you would even mention Baddoo. May has had 1 season where he reached 1 WAR and that was 2015. How is this a core that we should have built a contender around?
  2. Major League Ready
    Where we differ is that I don't believe the group they inherited was good enough to be "augmented" into a serious contender. That group had one year where they performed and the FO did a great job of augmenting that team. They were a good team but not a serious contender. They never had nearly enough pitching. The only way that group could have been augmented into serious contention would have been to gut the farm system.
  3. Major League Ready
    I would describe the results to this point as pretty good but not great. Compare what was supported here. People are still complaining about Rosario and he has literally been one of the worst OFers in MLB. People went nuts over Berrios and as of this moment that looks like a very good trade. We can argue if they should have ever signed Donaldson but they did a great job moving on when many here were critical and said they could afford to keep him. Ryan and Duran for rentals were great trades. They got burned on pitchers who were hurt right after coming here but that's not exactly an unusual occurrence in MLB. They blew a couple first rounders. Sabato and Cavaco were horrible picks. They have done a good job of constructing a staff that bridges the gap to their prospect pipeline. We still don't know how that's going to turn out. That competitive window will be heavily impacted by their success or lack thereof. The position players look like they will provide their part to a competitive window to me. Correa / Buxton / Miranda / Kirilloff / Lewis / Lee / Julien / Rodriquez / Larnach and Wallner should provide a good core.
  4. Major League Ready
    I am not so sure they will add anyone. They added Lopez and will have Alcala back. They may also move Ober to the BP.
  5. Major League Ready
    The pitching changes from the beginning of last year stand out to me. They added Tyler Mahle, Pablo Lopez, Jorge Lopez, Chris Paddack and Jovanni Moran. Maeda and Alcala will be back from injury. Plus, Varland and SWR appear to be ready. That's a lot of good pitching added from one year to the next.
  6. Major League Ready
    If you are going to dream, you may as well dream big. They do have quite a few guys with upside and we all dream of that playing out this year and years to come.
  7. Major League Ready
    Varland and SWR in particular need to get a look given Gray / Mahle and Maeda are free agents. The dream is one or both of them are pitching so great that they force their way onto the team even if it means one of the pending free agents gets moved at the deadline. There is room for Lewis / Wallner and Larnach. Let's hope for a similar situation with them. Let's hope Larnach and Wallner are good enough that they obvious play becomes trading Gallo at the deadline. Dare to dream, right. The IF spot opened via the Arraez departure leaves room for one of Julien / Martin or Lewis. It will be interesting to see how that plays out. They can always trade Farmer if they are so fortunate as to have guys beating down the door. I would be really happy if our problem was too many prospects making a great case to be at the ML level.
  8. Major League Ready
    It's going to be pretty tough for any of these guys that have not debuted to get playing time this year. There are just too many guys ahead of them in the process.
  9. Major League Ready
    If we define prospects as players with less than 1/2 year service time, I don't see any of these as the most likely candidates with the exception of Martin. Among position players, I would expect Larnach / Wallner / Martin and Julien. Among pitchers I would expect Moran / Winder / Sands / Henriguez / Varland and SWR in roughly that order.
  10. Major League Ready
    The Yankees have six 50 FV pitching prospects and two 45 FV pitching prospects. That is their point of depth. I would much rather get back someone that has the potential to be a long-term solution instead of hoping Montas will be healthy enough to contribute for two-thirds of a season where we already have a ton of question marks. Yankees Prospects
  11. Major League Ready
    Woodruff was an 11th round pick. The only an established top of the rotation SP acquired via trade by a team in the bottom half of revenue. I can come up with is Greinke to the Brewers. Of course, the Royals got two prospects that ended up being crucial pieces to the WS run plus Jake Odorizzi. I can come up with quite a few that were traded for prospects. The reason is the extraordinary future capital required to acquire that type of pitcher.
  12. Major League Ready
    His production can easily be replaced between Larnach / Gallo / Wallner and Gordon or at least very close to replaced. By replaced I mean considering both offensive and defensive value and I would not be surprised if a couple of those options were considerably better offensively this year. If they can get significant future value and spend the amount saved by trading Kepler on a BP piece, it's a no brainer for me.
  13. Major League Ready
    Just to emphasize your point Mike, The runner-up AL batting Champ had an OPS that was 250 point higher than Arraez and his wRC+ was 76 points higher and he is a plus defender. His WAR was over 3X that of Arraez. I would also add that adding Lopez is a gain over Ober and Ober will be a gain over whoever he replaces in the BP if they utilize him in that capacity.
  14. Major League Ready
    or they could keep the top tier prospects it would require and use the payroll savings those players provide to acquire a top of the rotation arm in free agency. The net of that strategy would be to have all of the players that would have been traded away and a top of the rotation arm. This strategy obviously has much more upside and the benefits last for 5-6 years. Not to mention that betting on one guy as often as pitchers get hurt there is real potential to give away a ton and get very little in return. A contending team would never trade away an "ace" for a collection of average players that are established so trading Polanco, Kepler, and Gallo for an ace is never going to happen. The only way an ace is delt is if it's for multiple great prospects that have a huge impact on the future of a franchise.
  15. Major League Ready
    True but I do remember thinking at the deadline that they were fooling themselves if they thought they were at all serious contenders, and I wrote that here. There is a little more nuance to it though. Others have pointed out that they did not give up top prospects although it would not surprise me if CES turned out to be an all-star. They were really deep with "decent" prospects like Steer and you can't keep them all. That's why I said earlier that the Twins could absolutely have a sustained period of success after making the trades they have made. Trading Arraez and replacing his production internally (at least close) is part of how they sustain winning. Trading Polanco when Lee or Lewis is ready ... part of the solution. Extending Mahle / Gray or getting a comp round pick, etc. Getting lucky in the lottery helps too.
  16. Major League Ready
    I basically agree this is a hindsight judgment but there is also some degree of accountability if their evaluation is wrong as it was when the cardinals gave up both Alcantara and Gallen. Just my opinion but I think this FO significantly misjudged their chances last year. If they don't make much of a playoff run this year, they did in fact expend a lot of assets when their chances were not good. So, while it is hindsight, that hindsight pretty clearly shows they were wrong about their chances last year and any team can misjudge prospects and end up over paying in a manner that has a significant long-term negative impact. The best hitters fail 70% of the time. Decisions that don't work out are part of the deal but that does not change the fact that deals that seemed reasonable turn out to be bad decisions that hurt the team for several years.
  17. Major League Ready
    I am not quite there. It depends on two things for me. Do they actually contend? If not, so what if they were a little better. Obviously, they did not contend last year. We will see about this year but a lot of stuff has to go right, Two, how long and how well does the lost prospect perform. 5-6 years of a solid number 2 really lifts a team, not to mention that cost controlled guy frees up budget for FAs. There are some examples like the Marlins got Alcantara and Gallen for two years of Acuna. For me, unless they have two runs to the WS or win the WS one of the years, it's a very bad trade. They won 88 games in 2018 and 91 in 19 then lost 4-0 in the NLCS. So, they did pretty well but for me that is not remotely worth Alcantara for 6 years not to mention Zac Gallen as a bonus.
  18. Major League Ready
    He has to be the biggest wildcard in the entire system. Prelipp and Rodriquez will be the two prospects I watch the closest in 2023. Salas too.
  19. Major League Ready
    I might be the biggest advocate on this board of the need to develop or trade for prospects that produce for 6+ years instead of two years. However, the twins can absolutely have sustained success in the wake of the trades that were made. That will depend on a few of the young guys coming through and realizing their potential. They need to create a rotation between Ryan / Ober / SWR / Varland / Winder / Balazovic / Prielipp / Canterino / Festa and Raya. who knows maybe they take a pitcher at 5 this year in the draft. If they can develop starters, they will have the financial flexibility to sign a top of the rotation free agent. They have so many position player prospects that a few can fail they need to create a group of core guys between Correa / Buxton / Kirilloff / Miranda / Lewis / Lee / Larnach / Walner / Rodriquez / Martin and Salas. The trades were a short-term benefit and likely a long-term loss. That can be overcome by trades like the Arraez trade if they can get present and/or future value for the established players that will inevitably be replaced. That's why they should trade Kepler and eventually Polanco. They might just have enough mid rotation starters to trade someone at the deadline and they have a couple pitchers that will at minimum net a comp round pick. Plus, they got lucky and moved up to 5 in the draft and they have a comp round pick. There is a good chance we have a good team for the next several years. They will need a couple stars to emerge if they are going to be a dominant team.
  20. Major League Ready
    There might actually be a competition for the final spot among position players between Larnach / Martin, and Julien. That could be interesting to watch as spring training unfolds.
  21. Major League Ready
    Depends on several things. 1. How good are twins at the 2023 deadline. 2. The return for Lopez. 3. How good are Varland / Winder / SWR / Canterino / Balazovic / Prielipp / Festa and Raya looking. If 3 or 4 of them are absolutely dominating in Milb, it would make the move easier. 4. What is his ask. 5. How does Maeda bounce back and Paddack could be ready by then. How does he look at that point. 6. How well are Ober / Ryan pitching. 7. Their willingness to really pony up next year and spend on a top free agent pitcher. The dollars will be available. They have Mahle / Gray / Maeda / Pagan / Gallo and Taylor coming off. They will likely trade Kepler and Farmer or decline Kepler's option. They can also non-tender farmer. That's a total of $61M coming off if they were to trade Lopez. They can spend half on one pitcher if they can fill four spots in the 2024 rotation between Ryan / Ober / Paddack / SWR / Varland / Winder / Canterino / Balazovic and Festa. Perhaps Prielipp and Raya become options during the 2024 season. Perhaos they extend Gray or Maeda on a shorter deal. Put Nola or Severino and the front of that group and you have something.
  22. Major League Ready
    Spring training starts in 32 days.
  23. Major League Ready
    Squirrel's point about the value of this trade having multiple levels makes this an interesting case. Arreaz did one thing extremely well. However, when the Twins look at how they replace him, it's not a simple player to player comparison. He was a below average defender and base runner with little power and he did not hit LH pitching well. The key to how this works out with a guy that fit in wherever they had room will be how they cover his ABs in aggregate. Can Kirilloff provide better defense at 1B and equal offensive production. Can Julien provide an equal OBP with more power and therefore a higher OPS / wRC+ along with above average base running and equal defense. Can Martin provide similar OBP with better defensive value and great base running. Will the additions of Lewis and Lee squeeze Arraez out? In other words, will the players taking his ABs collectively cover the offense of Arraez while gaining in other areas? The more I think about it, the more I think they can cover his departure.
  24. Major League Ready
    It would be easier to identify the guys that won't DH. Other than Farmer and Jeffers, just about everyone could get at least a few games at DH. Gallo gets a few DH days if he is playing like he did in 2019 or 2021. 2022 Joey Gallo is only in the lineup when he is playing in the OF.
  25. Major League Ready
    I understand where you are coming from and two teams can both win in a trade. The scenario could play out many ways. Petty could end up being a 3/4 and it's no big deal. If Chase Petty turns out to be an ace, I would not view it as a good outcome unless the twins made a deep push in the playoffs this year and Gray was instrumental. Granted, the odds of Petty becoming an ace are long but two years of a good pitcher in years where we did not contend is not a good swap if we could have had a better pitcher for 6+ years. It would be just our luck!
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