Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

Major League Ready

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    7,755

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    26

 Content Type 

Profiles

News

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects Ranking

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

Minnesota Twins Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by Major League Ready

  1. Major League Ready
    Kepler and Maeda get traded if they can find a decent return.
  2. Major League Ready
    I could only find 9 contracts of 8 or more years that have reached their conclusion for position players. I calculated the average WAR per year for the back half of these contracts. For contracts with an odd number of years, I used half of the middle year. The results may ease the pain of losing Correa on a 13 year contract. 7 of the 9 averaged less than 1 year over the last half of their contract. As ugly as the 8-10 years contracts have been, these 13 year contracts taking a player past age 40 are likely really ugly. fWAR bWAR Derek Jeter 4.42 4.16 Dave Winfield 1.98 2.22 Joey Votto 0.82 0.92 Alex Rodriguez 0.77 0.64 Robinson Cano 0.26 0.22 Albert Pujlos 0.15 0.21 Jason Hayward -0.05 0.30 Miguel Cabrera 2.60 -0.27 Prince Fileder -0.18 -0.18 Averge 1.20 0.91
  3. Major League Ready
    It would be huge if two of Varland / SWR / Winder prove they are here to stay over the course of 2023. That would give them 4 prearb starters plus Paddack at a modest sum. They could afford to sign anyone they want. Obviously, they still need to convince them to come here but they will have the money to spend.
  4. Major League Ready
    That's basically what Cohen is doing. Man it would be great to have an owner willing to operate at a loss of 10s of millions. We all share your wish! However, the other owners determine their budget based on how much revenue they produce, just like you and me and every other business on the planet, including non-profits. If I were to speculate on the budget without the benefit of projected revenue and operating costs, I would look at the fact the Twins revenue has been about $40M under league average the last few years, and hope they would be aggressive enough to spend league average.
  5. Major League Ready
    He was the best option available unless you want to give up the haul Oakland got for Murphy. There is a reason Oakland has the best winning percentage of any team outside the top 5 in revenue since the turn of the century. They got 4 MLB ready players for 2 years of Murphy. I will take Vazquez for 3/30 and look forward to finally having a great defensive catcher 4-5 days a week.
  6. Major League Ready
    After hearing / reading this statement many times, I wondered just how influential each method has been in the past among winning teams. So, I compiled data in the form of WAR by acquisition method from the best teams over the past 20 years. I have many examples from mid and small markets. I want to collect large market data for comparison. Then, after the holidays I will post the data showing the relative impact of each type of acquisition. I can tell you this .... Trading for prospects has been far more impactful than trading for established players for teams with below average revenue. Trading prospects for elite players is virtually non-existent among the examples I have gathered. The interesting thing about free agency is that the better a team is at producing prearb talent, the more budget they have for free agency. It would be accurate to say that player development enables or drives a team's ability to spend in free agency.
  7. Major League Ready
    Kepler does not have nearly the impact of an elite arm so they don't need to get back an elite arm for trading him for the trade to be a good move. What if they get an MLB ready catcher? IDK who that would be, but the point remains. Making room to play Wallner could (not should) improve the team regardless of the return. Those are the kind of moves that have made Oakland/Tampa successful.
  8. Major League Ready
    By far the most influential factor will be revenue increase/decrease. Inflation is not going to drive revenue up. It will likely have the opposite effect and it will drive up operating costs. The good news is they are getting a $30M from the sale of remaining BAM ownership. They could spend an extra $30M this year with the understanding there would be no money available to replace Gray & Mahle and of course they need to cover arbitration increases.
  9. Major League Ready
    Not that much. How many passed balls per game? How does Narvaez or any other catcher compare in that stat. I would assume working with pitchers and calling a game is more important than either of these stats but that's a really tough one to quantify.
  10. Major League Ready
    Did you read the explanation Chpettit gave? Rather than double quote I just inserted it below. “But the RBI stat isn't measuring what people who like it claim it is. It's not at all hard to find BA with RISP stats. Or % of runners driven in stats. Or any number of combinations of outs, bases occupied, game situation, etc. stats that show who the actual clutch hitters are while RBI does nothing of the sort. For example: In 2022 Jose Abreu drove in 75 runs while Jose Miranda drove in 66. However, Abreu had 679 PAs to Miranda's 483. Miranda drove in 16.1% of the baserunners he had on during his 483 PAs. Abreu drove in 13.8% of his. Guy on 3rd, less than 2 outs? Abreu drove in 39.4% of his runners, Miranda drove in 47.2% of his. If I catch 200 walleyes over the course of a summer and you catch 150 am I the better fisherman. Well, if you fished 15 days and I fished 20 days, I would say no. I just had more opportunity to fish. What are we really looking for? We want a player to convert opportunities, right? Two players can drive in the exact same number of runs where one has 50% more opportunity. Those players are not equally adept at driving in runs because they both drove in the same number of runs. Measuring the percentage of conversions as Chepettit19 has explained here is a far better measure of productivity than simply using total RBI. Put a different way, using the one stat that actually counts runs does not provide any measure of effectiveness unless it's pair with the number of opportunities to drive in those runs.
  11. Major League Ready
    Over 2-3 seasons, I will take Miranda and the nearly $19M per year in salary to be invested elsewhere. The difference is they can sign Rodon vs a retread. Miranda plus Rodon >>>>> Abreau and retread. For those that would prefer a couple high leverage RPs ... That works too.
  12. Major League Ready
    Great post! There are obviously stats that are much better measures of effectiveness driving in runs. Apparently, this is not lost on most "stat heads".
  13. Major League Ready
    There is no arguing they did not get enough production out of the corner OFers. That is a very different argument than suggesting letting Rosario go was a mistake. He was horrible last year. He clearly would have made the team worse. The players they put out there were all better but got injured yet somehow your conclusion is the FO made a mistake. That conclusion sounds like you developed an opinion when they let him go and then just ignored what actually happened.
  14. Major League Ready
    Rosario had a negative 1.1 WAR last year. How is it a problem they moved on from a guy who was one of the worst corner OFers in all of MLB?
  15. Major League Ready
    The better option is not necessarily another single player. The question is could they spread $300M to alternatives that yield greater production. Can they come up with a DJ LeMahieu who in 2019 produced more WAR for 1/3 of the money or another Nelson Cruz who produced more than double per dollar spent compared to Correa or can they extend a player like the Guardians did in Ramirez and get equivalent production for a $20M / AAV and not have the end of contract burden which almost always means very little production for a lot of money. Who will be better next year. Who knows? When you are at the very top of the pay scale there is a good chance someone produces the same for less but Correa is as good a bet as any. That’s not the real issue. If he gets a 9-year deal, who will be better for the last 5 years. History would suggest a lot of free agents will be better for less but the even better alternative is extending players like Ramirez, Acuna, and many others. That’s likely the much better investment.
  16. Major League Ready
    If it's true that there is considerable trade interest, why is everyone assuming they tendered him a contract because they want to keep him? Isn't it possible the trade interest has them believing they can get something back so they chose to tender him a contract rather than non-tendering him?
  17. Major League Ready
    Duplicate post deleted
  18. Major League Ready
    It seems pretty simple. I really liked Urshella but they got a guy with more defensive flexibility and an extra year of control for $3M less plus a prospect. How can this be a bad move?
  19. Major League Ready
    The irony is there were a lot of people who did not like the trade that brought him to Minnesota. I remember some insisting that it was certain this stupid FO just made the team worse. The net of that trade is now Miranda vs Donaldson and $21M to spend this year plus a decent prospect and $16M next year or an $8M buyout. Absolutely fantastic trade in concert with the other moves that were made so perhaps we will need to wait and see what else transpires.
  20. Major League Ready
    If you would have scratched your head for a minute the change would have been saved.
  21. Major League Ready
    I watched quite a bit of Miranda at 3B in St. Paul and I don't agree. Miranda was not great but he was what I would call perfectly adequate. I would also assume he is working on defense this off season. I guess we will find out who the Twins think has more potential at 3B but I would bet Miranda gets the majority of time there..
  22. Major League Ready
    Does this move mean they will pick-up a rule player? Not that it would be part of the reason to do it. Just curious.
  23. Major League Ready
    They played Miranda at 3B with Arraez at 1B last year so that probably answers your question.
  24. Major League Ready
    I sure would like to know what Kirilloff's doctors are telling the FO. That would influence the overall plan. Being able to move Miranda to first and have Urshela at 3B works well. However, Abreau or Bell make more sense as the odds of Kirilloff returning to full health go down. and we need to determine if Miranda can play 3B at some point. I think it's 60/40 they keep him.
  25. Major League Ready
    Someone might prefer a LH bat and Kepler's defense. It could also be a budget thing. What if we ate most of Kepler's contract this year. That could be a $10-12M difference. For some teams that's a difference maker. Plus, what do we expect Hanigar to get in years? He probably gets at least 3 years. Another team might prefer the 1 year commitment with Kepler plus a team option year. Maybe Hanigar just does not want to play for that other team. Maybe he does not want to play here either.
×
×
  • Create New...