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Major League Ready

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Everything posted by Major League Ready

  1. Major League Ready
    Coulombe has appeared in 194 ML league games has a whopping total .5 WAR. He isn't going to win games either. I will take my chances with Winder / Megill / Henriquez or even Dobnak who are all much younger and can be a long-term solution. Varland / SWR would also be better than Coulombe and it would be a way to prepare them for a role next year and several years to come. Coulombe has no value beyond being a band aid if several guys get injured.
  2. Major League Ready
    Perhaps because they could use any of Ober / Winder / Varland / SWR / Sanchez / Dobnak / as multi inning RPs if they need more depth plus they have Megill / Henriguez / Ortega / DeLeon and several other non-40 man guys in STP.
  3. Major League Ready
    Are you saying two will be gone because they will resign one of Mahle / Gray or Maeda?
  4. Major League Ready
    I think it's a matter of getting Gallo reps at 1B with Kirilloff out, He probably gets used a lot at 1B which he has not played for 3 or 4 years. Also, with Larnach looking good, he and Kepler have the corner OF spots covered. I just hope he is not just good enough to hang around. Give us 2021 Gallo or have Larnach and Wallner force the Twins to trade him by the deadline.
  5. Major League Ready
    I would love to see the trio of Ober / Varland and SWR pitch so well that they force or at least influence the Twins to trade one of the pending free agent SPs. Maeda seems the most likely of the three to get traded. The thought being they need to test these young guys this year given we have three pending FAs.
  6. Major League Ready
    I also thought Jax looked good this spring. His breaking balls look improved.
  7. Major League Ready
    Miranda drove everything this spring and looked great in most of his ABs and he was a beast until he wore down last year. I just have more confidence with Miranda than Lee right now given Lee has not played above A ball. This opinion is subject to change at the end of the season if he kills it in AA/AAA this year. Also, I might be overly optimistic on Miranda because I have been on the Miranda train for a while. When others advocated keeping Donaldson or trading Miranda last year, I thought be would be as good or better then JD especially given the equation was JD vs Miranda / Urshela and Sanchez and this year Miranda plus $20M. He has yet to let us down.
  8. Major League Ready
    You and I have really been aligned lately but I am not sure Lee unseats Miranda. Maybe I just hope Miranda is good at 3B but he looked fine at 3b last year (sucked at 1B) and hopefully he improves. He is just not nearly as valuable as a DH/1B so I don't see them wanting to move him off 3B. I like Lees ceiling just like everyone else but I need to see some significant success above A ball before I start assuming he replaces Miranda at 3B. Even if Lee continues to impress, I like Lee at 2B and Lewis OF and back-up for SS. Now if Julien improves defensively, we have a high-class problem. I really hope we have to figure that one out.
  9. Major League Ready
    This potential roster construction looks great. Buxton / Lewis / Rodriquez and Larnach fit together ideally in terms of having a great back-up CF and any one of the four could be DH on off days. Good point on Martin complementing this group too.
  10. Major League Ready
    That probably makes more sense. I have seen very little of Rodriquez but the scouting reports show a plus arm and slightly above average speed. That would be a really great defensive and offensive outfield. I would love to see one of or two of Festa, Prielipp, and Raya negate the need to sign Nola. We can use the money that would have gone to Nola for extensions. I just thought I was already being a bit optimistic but these guys do have that kind of ceiling. We could also end up with Skenes at #5. BTW .... I have the same reservations about Canterino. He has kind of a max effort delivery. I would be happy if he could stay healthy out of the BP.
  11. Major League Ready
    I was looking at what the roster would look like at the end of 2024 going forward. It's a little confusing because Lopez will be part of the last half of 2024 after Rodriquez and Lewis are added but he is a free agent at the end of the year. I should have added a sentence to explain in the original posts.
  12. Major League Ready
    If Miranda can play an average 3B, I envision Lewis and Rodriquez in the corner OF spots by mid 2024. Envision / dream of ... whatever you want to call it but it could be VERY good. We end 2024 with this roster. 1B Kirilloff 2B Lee 3B Miranda SS Correa RF Lewis CF Buxton LF Rodriquez Bench of Gordon / Julien / Martin / Larnach / Jeffers Rotation of Nola / Ryan / Ober and 2 of Varland / SWR / Festa / Prielipp / Raya / Canterino *** Nola is a long shot but I am sticking with it.
  13. Major League Ready
    That would mean a healthy rotation for most of the year. I am OK with that scenario. Ober can be brought back the last couple months of the season to strengthen the BP in the unlikely event all of our SPs remain healthy.
  14. Major League Ready
    You could make the same statement had they signed Correa / Judge / Turner / Verlander and Scherzer. You could say Houston appears to be a good team based on this logic. Until they play the games it only "appears" they are better. This is fan speak rhetoric as I see it. Injuries happen and players sometimes underperform but that as of this moment it's a better team than last year.
  15. Major League Ready
    So we should not care or be pleased that they improved the roster because games are not played on paper?
  16. Major League Ready
    His odds are looking good. Hoffman and DeLeon sent down yesterday.
  17. Major League Ready
    Failed ventures are your example of the twins benefiting? You are really reaching.
  18. Major League Ready
    I hope it's Polanco because nobody is taking his spot by Memorial Day unless he is hurt. Now, if Lewis or Julien come up and play so great they are compelled to trade Polanco at the deadline, that's not a problem.
  19. Major League Ready
    That's a low bar.
  20. Major League Ready
    Looking a little deeper, according to the star tribune (Phil Miller) Hoffman has several opt outs. I am pulling for DeLeon. He could soak up some innings and protect the rest of the BP.
  21. Major League Ready
    According to MLB trade rumors Sanchez is the only twins player with an opt out. Players with opt outs
  22. Major League Ready
    Sorry, that's not how it works. These variations are not cumulative. If you are off 15% of travel cost and off 15% on facilities cost you don't add them together. If travel cost is 10 of total operating cost your estimate would be off by 1.5%. If you are off on every estimate by 15% you are off 15% in total, Given we know the exact amount for player payroll and draft bonuses. There is zero variation on over 50% of total cost. Therefore, if we were of 15% on everything else, we would be off by a total of 7.5%.
  23. Major League Ready
    What forms of spending could be channeled to Pohlad owned companies? 60-65% of their spending is on players. The next largest expense would be non-player personnel. They don't appear to own hotels where the team stays? They don't own the networks where advertising would appear. The entire gain from owning an advertising firm would be the net gain from one account (the twins). If that advertising firms has a 10% bottom line the net gain is 10% of the fees paid to manage their account not the entire spend. I would assume they lease office space from United properties but that's not exactly an enormous expenditure relatively speaking. Do you have any examples or is this just pulling this out of the air?
  24. Major League Ready
    I don’t think they have painted themselves into a corner, Doc. Mahle / Gray / Gallo / Taylor / Pagan / Maeda / Solano come off next year. That’s $44M. They also have a team option with Kepler which would bring the total to $52.5M. They are also likely to replace Polanco in the next year or two so we are up to $60M. The team has a good chance to be better for the next several years which would increase revenue and let’s hope they can increase TV revenue as well. Of the group leaving, only Gray and Mahle will be difficult to replace and you could even say Mahle has yet to contribute. One of the pitching prospects needs to step up and they can use half of the $60M coming off to land a very good free agent SP.
  25. Major League Ready
    It’s not that hard to come up with a relatively accurate P&L for a MLB team. 1) We have a very good revenue estimate. The only major form of revenue not reported by the league is major sponsors and that can be likely be found in reporting from the sponsor organization. 2) We have a very accurate account of payroll / domestic draft bonuses and international bonuses. I am sure Forbes has an accurate estimates of player benefits. The only thing I could find estimated player benefits at 11.5% of payroll. This includes medical and retirement. 3) Let’s use $140M payroll. Add $14M for draft bonuses and $16M in player benefits and you have $170M. The Twins had $268M in revenue in 2021. Therefore, we have a very accurate estimate of nearly two-thirds of expenses and an even more accurate revenue estimate. 4) The other third of expenses are comprised of operating costs. It’s not that hard to get a list of employees. Their salaries / benefits can be estimated with a fair degree of accuracy. Office space, technology, travel, etc can all be estimated with 10%. Given this portion of the expense represents one-third of total operating expense (excluding player expense) , which represents one-third of revenue and the variance is 3-4% of revenue.
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