Chembry

I saw the same thing. Don't know if there is any truth to it or not.

What I am getting from most of the conversation here, is that fans expect a player to be traded or non-tendered if they have a down year. Is that correct? I am not particularly high on Wallner, but not necessarily down on him either...I think the vast majority of Wallner hate is unjustified and skewed on "what has he done for me lately" attitude based on 2025, ignoring the rest of his career. Here are his stats from 2022-2024: Season Age Team WAR G PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ 2022 24 MIN -0.3 18 65 57 13 3 0 2 10 6 25 0.228 0.323 0.386 0.709 103 2023 25 MIN 2.2 76 254 213 53 11 1 14 41 28 80 0.249 0.37 0.507 0.877 138 2024 26 MIN 2.2 75 261 220 57 17 1 13 37 24 95 0.259 0.372 0.523 0.894 149 Totals 4.1 169 580 490 123 31 2 29 88 58 200 0.251 0.312 0.500 0.866 140 10% BB 34% K Season Age Team WAR G PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ 2025 27 MIN 0.5 104 392 336 68 16 3 22 40 46 114 0.202 0.311 0.464 0.776 110 12% BB 29% K The stats show that over 2022-2024 Wallner was a well above average hitter. BABIP also took a big hit in 2025 going down from .361 to .228. Hard hit rate also reduced from 51.5% down to 45.5%. 2025 was a down year, no question, but that doesn't necessarily mean he can't return to pre-2025 form. And even though 2025 was a down year, he still played above replacement level. With that being said, Wallner should mostly DH. Defensively he has averaged -4 OAA since he came into the league. That also means ERod, Jenkins, etc... have stepped up and taken that role. There is no reason to trade or give up on him. Someone else mentioned Kyle Schwarber. I would put Wallner and Schwarber as similar architectural type of hitters. Power hitters that K at a significant rate. Schwarber has a career 34% K rate, but most here also value Schwarber very highly. Schwarber has had his ups and downs as well. He has two seasons where he hit below .200 (.197 and .188) and two others just above .200 (.211 and .218). I am not trying to compare the two, just pointing out that even highly regarded power hitters have up and down years. According to BBTV, Wallner has a trade value of 22.5 and Jared Jones has a BBTV of 19.5. Pretty close in value but would be considered a minor overpay by the Twins.

MLBTR reported, by way of LaVelle, that the Twins are interested in Scott Servais. Off topic but also interesting…MLBTR also reported that Pujols and Hunter are out of consideration for the Angels position.

Marcelo Mayer has a significant injury history as well. There is no chance that the Red Sox part with Mayer if they can't bring Bregman back. If they do bring Bregman back, I somewhat agree with your comments, but the likelihood is higher. This trade has been floated by many sources, even into October. So it's not coming out of nowhere, but agree that the odds are very low: https://www.si.com/mlb/red-sox/boston-red-sox-news/red-sox-blockbuster-trade-idea-swaps-marcelo-mayer-for-twins-all-star-jackson3 https://www.newsweek.com/sports/mlb/red-sox-predicted-to-trade-marcelo-mayer-for-twins-all-star-10842973

Both Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober were named preseason dark horse Cy Young candidates by MLB. https://www.mlb.com/news/2025-mlb-cy-young-award-candidates

I have seen him pitch several times in both AAA and MLB, that was my takeaway as well.

I'm not as big on the Mets system as others here, but love all the comments. McLean would be interesting for sure, he definitely had a strong debut. I'm not as high on Jonah Tong. I don't know much about Benge or Williams. A trade of McLean and Vientos for Ryan could be interesting. As someone else pointed out, Vientos has played 1B at both the MLB level and in the minors, and would be under team control through 2029. However, as someone else pointed out, I would love to see other entries in this series. Particularly, Red Sox, Phillies, Cubs, and Giants.

I have the same thought process on this topic. The question is who do they target in a trade? Would it be to fill a need at 1B/C/SS or just the best prospect they can get regardless of position? The reason I include SS is because Culpepper has some positional flexibility playing 3B in college and some 2B in the minors. My stance is we try to fill a position of need first with the best MLB ready prospect they can get. Whether that's Eldridge, Harry Ford, Moises Ballesteros, as well as others...

Lol…it wasn’t me, it was a direct quote from the SI article. I should have been clearer on that. I was simply stating he hit better as the season went on. Do you disagree? Edit: I do understand your point about cherry picking dates and somewhat agree. I tend to compile and calculate my own stats. I was just too lazy this time and quoted the article. But to some extent, you have to pick dates to show a point. I don't know how the author decided on August 17th as the start date. However, the end date was defined by the date the article was published, which was September 23rd. Your point on OPS is well taken. However, the OPS quoted in the article (.791) is still well above league average of .719 for 2025. It would also put him at 54th place of all MLB hitters, above Spencer Torkelson, Gunnar Henderson, Brandon Lowe, Elly De La Cruz, Jarren Duran, Jose Altuve, PCA, Ian Happ, Trevor Story, Mookie Betts, etc... It did surprise me that Lewis only walked 10 times since August 1st and 25 times all year. His BB rate was 6.2%. https://www.si.com/mlb/twins/minnesota-twins-news/royce-lewis-admits-he-came-back-too-soon-from-hamstring-injury

Spot on. Royce admitted in an SI article he came back too soon from the hamstring injuries. That along with the ACL tears have changed his lower body. As the season moved along, you could tell he started to feel more comfortable with his lower half. His feet still move quite a bit, but he is adjusting and hope he will be closer to the Royce we know he can be. His second half stats were much better. From Aug. 17 through Sept 23rd, he hit .270/.299/.492 with a team-best eight home runs and 24 RBIs in 127 plate appearances. I was happy to see Royce start stealing bases again, but made me nervous almost every time. I think we all would be very happy if he sustained that production for the year.

Off topic here, but I bought a few Twins jersey grab bags at a couple of the games I went this past year. The jersey grab bags are team issued, game used, or autographed jersey of any current or former Twin. I bought them because I like the unknown aspect. My favorite one was a team issued Matt Canterino jersey. I am excited to wear it to games next year. I also got an autographed Carlos Correa and team issued Trevor Richards jersey. Pretty sure I am the only person, besides Trevor Richards, who has a Trevor Richards jersey. Seriously though, I think we all wish Canterino the best. He has talent in spades, but he hasn't thrown a "competitive pitch" since 2022 and that was in AA. I know he has pitched some in spring training in 2024. Cam Booser can be used as a case study. I think most of us are familiar with his story, but injuries derailed his career and he was out of professional baseball from 2017-2021. He signed a minor league deal with the Red Sox and worked from AA up to MLB, but took him 4 years to reach MLB. Obviously everyone is different and Canterino has pitched in ST, but he would need time to acclimate again. If he is healthy come ST, I hope he gets a look. However, the probability of him making it to MLB next year is low. In all likelihood, he would start at AA again and build up from there.

I assume Scott Servais will have the inside track for the SD Padres position. Pure speculation of course, but he currently works for the Padres in player development. I like him for the Twins position because of his player development experience and he has direct experience with rebuilds.

Personally, I do believe trading Ryan will only benefit the Twins in the long run. Especially if the package includes top prospects that are MLB ready, which is what I believe the Twins will ask for given we have Jenkins, Culpepper, Rodriguez, and Gonzalez that are all really close to MLB. However, a veteran pitcher like Pablo acts as a second pitching coach. He has publicly stated that he attends bullpen sessions and helps with both the mental and physical side of the game. A locker room presence like that is invaluable to all the young pitchers we have (Abel, Bradley, Morris, Prielipp, etc...). Add that to the many reasons I don't trade Pablo in the offseason. I don't like trading Ryan, but the likelihood of the Twins extending him after 2027 is zero. I also think the Twins could absorb trading either Ryan or Lopez, but not both. That's the reason I look to trade Ryan.

That wouldn’t be a smart move. Skubal is a free agent after 2026, so you would essentially be trading at least 6 years of Jenkins (barring any trades or modifications to CBA) for 1 year of Skubal.

That would be a nice package and I agree we need a SS. I also think Lee will get another shot in 2026. Mayer profiles are more of 3B, but can also play SS. If the Sox lose Bregman, not sure if they would be willing to let Mayer go. Arias has only played 10g at AA so probably between Culpepper and Houston in terms of readiness. Rafaela has potential gold glove caliber defense and under contract through 2031 with a club option for 2032. Hopefully, he can continue to grow as a hitter and cut down his chase rate. He cut his K rate from 26% in 2024 down to 20% in 2025. That is good progress.

Maybe he didn't say that and that is fine. Nevertheless, that doesn't color my view of him and I will continue to be a fan. Did you watch the Netflix documentary Clubhouse: A Year With the Red Sox? If you didn't, you really should. It's fantastic and really shows who Jarren Duran is as a person. He is the type of teammate everyone wants. I agree with you and I don't want him to be traded to the Twins. He is under team control through 2029, but I would rather go young. It was reported that the Red Sox offered 2 of Arias, Garcia, and Tolle plus a lower level prospect for Ryan at the deadline. We don't know which 2 of their top 3 were offered. It could have been any combination, but at the time the Twins wanted Duran included. I would much rather see a package headlined by 2 of Tolle/Marcelo Mayer/Arias. It was recently reported by SI that the only truly untouchables for BOS are Crochet and Anthony, so maybe Rafaela would be available? I am not sold on the Password, Campbell, or Casas (only included because we need a 1B).

Great quote from Duran. Not that we need another LH hitting outfielder, but Duran plays the game hard and the right way. I became a fan after watching Clubhouse: A Year with the Boston Red Sox and after saying this, I will always root his success no matter where he goes.

Yes Detroit needs another good SP to compliment Skubal. He will be gone after 2026, so they need another top of the rotation guy.…Mize is ok and Flaherty hasn’t been very good. Personally, I think Max Clark would be off limits, but worth asking. Like you say, if we are going to trade Ryan, I hope we scour every opportunity to get the best value. But I wouldn’t be jazzed about trading Ryan within the division.

I agree, we should be shooting for multiple top prospects if we trade Ryan. When I look at prospects, I look at MLB, Fangraphs, and Baseball America. I compare scouting reports between sites and I watch a lot of baseball (both in person and streaming). Personally, I have seen both Ballesteros and Long play. Ballesteros is rated #53 MLB (#2 org, 55), Fangraphs not rated (FV45), BA #32 MLB (#1 org, BA grade 50/medium). MLB and BA grade him higher on his hit tool and say the same thing. Advanced bat to ball skill and consistently hits the ball in the air with authority. HR totals likely limited due to all field approach. Fangraphs grades him lower in that regard and that’s where the difference is. However, from 2023 until present, he has shown that advanced bat to ball skills reaching AAA at 20 and MLB at 21. I watched a fair bit of him streaming and a few games in person. His bat to ball skills are impressive. I think his value is brought down by his catching grades. He isn’t a great defensive catcher. Long was just named as the Cubs minor league player of the year. He wasn’t a highly touted prospect and drafted in the 9th round. Going into 2024, he wasn’t on anyone’s radar. He isn’t rated in the top 100 of any list, but would be one to include in a package. He is rated as #7 org (MLB, 50 grade), Fangraphs #9 org (pre 2025 season #17, FV 40+), BA #7 org (BA grade 45/high). Again, Fangraphs doesn’t rate his hit tool as high. Both MLB and BA have similar scouting reports in which Long has advanced bat to ball skills and plus raw power. He works counts well and is selectively aggressive. He doesn’t chase at a high rate as evidenced by his low K rate and high BB rate. BA has the statement “he has the plate skills and power to profile long term at 1B.” Same as with Ballesteros, I have seen him play a fair bit. His pure power and bat to ball skills were just as, if not more impressive than Ballesteros. He showed that off by hitting .340 avg/7HR/29 RBI/.983 OPS in 42g at AA in 2024 and continued that through 140g at AAA in 2025. That sustained production deserves a look. My guess is his value is somewhat brought down his run and arm grades. Nevertheless, I was solely focusing on 1B prospects as compared to Eldridge. Just saying we can get good value with other prospects as well. As mentioned, Long wouldn’t be a headliner, but one to ask to be included with Alcantra, Wiggins, Ballesteros, etc…that is if we trade Ryan. Maybe we could get Long for Ober being evened out one way or another? My only issue with Eldridge is his K rate, but would be ecstatic if we got him. But other than Eldridge, I am not sure who the Twins would ask for? Randy Rodriguez? Erik Miller? Some other RP? They have publicly stated their focus is pitching, so maybe they would be willing to part with Eldridge. FWIW, there are other packages that would be very intriguing. I am not closing the door on trading for a cost controlled MLB option either…fun to speculate about.

Eldridge should certainly be in the discussion, especially since Devers is playing more 1B with 3B being locked down by Chapman. But the Giants may not want to move Eldridge and relinquish Devers to mostly DH duties. Beyond Eldridge, there isn't much else to get excited about in SF's minor league system. Most of the Giants top prospects are AA or lower, so we would most likely ask for a reliever. But there are also other potential 1B trade targets whose clubs make more sense, like the Cubs. The Cubs currently have Michael Bush, who is under team control through 2030 (I believe). They have 2 prospects in Moises Ballesteros (C/1B) and Jonathon Long (1B) who would be worth a conversation. I don't think the Cubs would part with both, but may be willing to part with one of them. Jonathon Long is interesting. Here are some stats AAA for Eldridge, Ballesteros, and Long. Player Age Level G PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS Eldridge 20 AAA 66 286 253 63 13 0 18 63 28 88 .249 .322 .514 .836 Ballesteros 21 AAA 114 509 446 141 29 1 13 76 49 67 .316 .385 .473 .858 Long 23 AAA 140 607 514 157 23 3 20 91 79 116 .305 .404 .479 .883 As you can see, Eldridge will hit HRs, but K rate is very high (31% at AAA, MiLB career 27% K rate) and a high walk rate (10%). On the other hand Long has a lower K rate (19%) and higher walk rate (13%), but won't hit as many HRs. Ballesteros is more of a pure hitter who doesn't K as much (13%), still has a high walk rate (10%), hit for a high average in AAA, but doesn't project to have the power of the other two. Ballesteros also has had success in a short MLB stint this year (.298 avg, 2 HR, 11 RBI, .868 OPS in 20g) Defensively, Long is better than Eldridge as it sits today. Eldridge only started playing 1B in 2024, with his first year in pro baseball playing OF. Eldridge has a very strong arm and was a 2 way player in high school. Ballesteros is in between Long and Eldridge. All three are below average runners. There are many others players that could be targeted, including cost controlled MLB C/1B. I just wanted to point out that there are other prospects that bring a similar value. Personally, I would be happy with any of the 3 discussed.

First, let me say that we agree that Clemens shouldn't be an everyday starter, but I do think he is a decent bench piece. I think perceptions on batting average need to change a bit. MLB league wide batting average was .245 for 2025. The days of multiple guys having averages >.300 with 30+ HRs are long gone. This year only 7 guys in MLB had averages at .300 or above (Judge, Bichette, Jacob Wilson, Springer, Jeremy Pena, Trea Turner, and Yandy Diaz). Compare that to the year 2000 (I just picked a year). League average was .270 and 53 players hit at or above .300... Clemens really wasn't that far off from league average in terms of batting average. The difference between hitting .250 and .300 is about 1 hit/week. Put that in terms of Clemens batting average. He played May through September (5 months). Figure 4 weeks/month, that would be 20 more hits in 2025. Those 20 hits would bump his average up to .270, which is well above league average. He would have only needed 11 more hits over 5 months to be at league average. That tells you that the margin is very thin. There are other stats that support your statement (wRC+, xBA, etc...) that show he was at replacement level. But batting average is such a thin margin that our viewpoint can be a bit skewed.

Mendez hit a HR in his first AB of the AZ fall league tonight.

Luke was the only real choice for this award. For what it’s worth. Baseball America also named Keaschall on their all rookie team.

St. Louis is in dire straights and looking at what appears to be a significant multi-year rebuild. They want to trade Arenado and Sonny Gray. The Athletic and MLBTR have reported they are willing to eat money to trade them, so would cross them off your list. But understand your point that the package would have to be significant to get Ryan. SF, Red Sox, and Cubs are close. The Cubs have some interesting prospects that would be fun to see in a Twins uniform. Not sure they would part with Ballesteros, but he should be one Twins need to target. Johnathon Long (1B) is another prospect that the Twins could ask as part of a package. I watched him play a few games and he hits the ball hard. Long hit .305/ 20 HR/ 91 RBI/ 19% k rate/ 13% BB rate in 140g at AAA this year.

I believe the 40-man deadline is November 18th. I don't think the non-tender/arbitration deadline is set yet, as far as I can tell. Last year it was November 22, 2024. I imagine it will be a similar date this year.