Chembry

Double post...sorry

There have been several other articles written since the ones I linked...I only linked the original ones because those are the only articles that broke down the data the original poster was looking for. The newer articles build off those original ones.

I am a "front office" subscriber, so don't see those ads. I had no idea they were there.

Agreed on this! I love Fangraphs roster resource pages. I am a frequent visitor looking at all teams.

Alex Jackson's future is in his hands. He now has the option to choose minor league free agency, since he has more than 3 years of service time and not currently on the 40 man. That is unless the Twins add him to the 40 man, which they haven't done yet. Who knows if Jackson will do that or not, but it wouldn't surprise me with the way he was handled down the stretch. On the other hand, he passed through waivers 3 times with nobody claiming him. He may have to settle for a minor league deal. If that's the case, he may elect to stay for his Arb 2 year. That is a long way to say, Jackson has the option to force the Twins to make a decision on him.

MLBTR does a good job at detailing the proposals. There are a number of articles there on the CBA talks, but here are links to the initial MLB and MLBPA proposals where what you are looking for is detailed. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2026/05/mlbpa-releases-details-of-collective-bargaining-proposal.html https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2026/05/mlb-submits-initial-counterproposal-to-mlbpa.html

I like Logan Gilbert. However, he is only under team control for 1 more year, through 2027. The authors suggest ERod, Quick, and Ben Ross as the return. Personally, I think that is a big overpay. Riley Quick is arguably our top pitching prospect, certainly the most upside closest to MLB. We aren't in a position to trade our pitching prospects for a pitcher with 1 year of control, even though he is very good. It would be a different story if we trade and then extend. That type of prospect return should net someone with multiple years of team control, like Bryan Woo (under team control through 2029) or Emerson Hancock (under team control through 2030). I do think Seattle will part with Gilbert, Kirby, Hancock or Miller, but I don't think they will part with Woo. Keep in mind, they also brought up the top pitching prospect in the game, Kade Anderson, so they have a surplus of starters (Woo, Gilbert, Kirby, Anderson, Hancock, Miller) and they also have Ryan Sloan who is in AA. He is also a consensus top 10 prospect.

I haven't seen any predictions for Arraez yet. I want to say last year, MLBTR predicted 2/$24M for Arraez and he ended up on a 1yr/$12M.

MLBTR has said in chat sessions that Jeffers should land in the neighborhood of $17-19M/yr as an AAV. If I am recalling correctly from a chat a few weeks ago, one writer made a prediction of 4/$72M.

Based on the quotes I saw from the end of the season press conference, Tom Pohlad has given Zoll the green light to extend a QO to Jeffers. It's now up to Zoll to decide if the late season struggles muddy those waters a bit. I still think it's prudent to extend a QO.

Should the Twins be any different than any other MLB team bringing up their top prospects this year? Here is a list of top prospects that were called up after the all-star break and the list includes the #1 pitching prospect in Kade Anderson: Kade Anderson, Mariners (MLB#5, Fangraphs #3), Lazaro Montes, Mariners (MLB#53, Fangraphs #79), George Lombard Jr, Yankees (MLB #14, Fangraphs #17), Angel Genao, Guardians (MLB#29, Fangraphs #10), Joshua Baez, Cardinals (MLB #56), Josue De Paula, Dodgers (MLB #6, Fangraphs #16), Max Clark, Tigers (MLB #13, Fangraphs #7), Ethan Salas, Padres, (MLB #21, Fangraphs #11). Michael Arroyo, Mariners (MLB #42, Fangraphs #68), Leo Bernal, Cardinals (MLB #99), Hagan Smith, White Sox (Fangraphs #64), Brody Hopkins, Rays (Fangraphs #45) Several of them didn't help their MLB teams make the postseason either. Josue De Paula made his debut September 11th. Thus isn't eligible for the postseason unless petitioned to MLB, so why bring him up? To add to that, De Paula went from AA to MLB, skipping AAA... I am not including prospects that made their debut prior to the all-star break or broke camp with their teams, but 39 prospects made their debut this year at age 22 or younger. If there was an extended lockout, many if not all would benefit from playing MiLB camp/games. Every team called up one of their top prospects at some point this year, with the exception of the Red Sox, Rockies, Royals, and Rangers (most of their high end prospects are at lower levels). All teams are operating as if there won't be an extended lockout. The point is, should the Twins be treated or operate differently than every other MLB team?

If that is how you feel, why are you providing the same comments on just about every thread about prospects? Why not just skip commenting? Why waste your valuable time?

I can't speak for Cody, but Gleeman stated on his podcast ~1 month ago, give or take a bit of time, that someone from the Twins spoke off the record about the QO. At that time, it was viewed as closer to 50/50. Now that viewpoint may have changed since or the situation may have been misread. Who knows, but I bet the conversations won't stop within the Twins until the decision has to be made.

Extending a QO to Jeffers is the only way to justify not trading him. Otherwise you let him walk for nothing. At least we could get a comp pick if he declines. Jeffers is probably going to get 4yrs/$70-80M. The best comp is probably JT Realmuto who was coming off back to back 2.8 and 2.5 WAR seasons when he signed at 3/$45M, but he was also 35 at the time. Jeffers will be 29. JT grades out better defensively, but Jeffers grades out better offensively at the time Realmuto signed. Wilson Contreras is another comp. He signed a 5/$87.5M for his age 31 season. He was coming off a 3.8 WAR season. At the time of that signing, Contreras was coming off a .243/.349/.815/126 OPS+ season, while Jeffers is at .259/.360/836/134 OPS+. Contreras was better defensively, but has now switched to 1B. Additionally, Jeffers is far and away the best catcher in this free agent class, which may create a bidding war. We know the Yankees need a catcher and they will pay.

I don't think Jeffers is a crazy idea at 1B, but it would be weird to have your best catcher at 1B...LOL!! And that is if the Twins either resign him or he accepts a QO. The FA list at 1B is horrendous. Here is the list: Ryan Mountcastle, Andrew Vaughn, Carlos Santana, Paul Goldschmidt, Josh Bell (mutual option), and Christopher Morel. Yandy Diaz was included on this list, but he reached his vesting option. Andrew Vaughn wasn't very good until he was demoted by the CWS and traded to MIL. Mountcastle hasn't been very good since 2024 and only played in 8g in 2026. Goldschmidt continues to destroy LHP with a 1.012 OPS against LHP in 174 PA for 2026, but was horrendous against RHP. He is also 39. If we want to upgrade at 1B, it would likely come via trade and there are too many options to consider. I think it might be best to move Clemens to 1B. I am also ok moving on from Royce.

The FA market is decent at 2B. Jazz Chisholm, Brandon Lowe, and Gleyber Torres will all be available. Ozzie Albies has a $7M club option and the Braves will exercise that. Jeff McNeil has a club option for $15.75M, with a $2M buyout, so that option will probably be declined. Out of those options, Gleyber Torres isn't eligible for a QO, but Lowe will probably have the QO attached. MLBTR viewed his QO as likely (same boat as Jeffers). Jazz Chisholm is unlikely to receive the QO. Lowe and Torres would be good additions. Both are "ok" defensively, but above average hitters. Lowe is on back to back 30HR seasons. I like Lowe the best, but he will have the QO attached. Torres is pretty good as well and 3 years younger. You don't need to trade any of them. Lee is still at 3B, for which he is +9 DRS since moving. Culpepper stays at SS. The newly signed FA stays at 2B. You don't want to rely on Houston coming up mid year or late 2027. By signing a FA 2B, you allow Houston to "force" his way up. Once that happens, you address the issue, but these have a way of working themselves out.

Based on what I saw from the microcast, appears as if most of the rain will be out of the area before gametime. Another round of potentially light rain looks like it would head through the area between 8:30-9:30 If that holds true they will play. I was at a game last year where it rained pretty heavy all day, but the rain moved on about 1.5 hours prior to game time. With the tarp on the field, they still had to use a hose to wet down the IF prior to gametime.

I just don’t think the Twins get as much as most here expect for a 2 month rental that had recently returned from an 8 week IL stint. But it doesn’t really matter anymore… Back to the topic at hand, it only makes sense to issue a QO since they didn’t trade him. I do think Jeffers will get 4/$70-80M range.

I am aware of the talks, but doubt the Twins could have walked away with that much in excess value. There was quite a bit of speculation on here that the Twins could get Lagrange in the Jeffers deal, and many were saying Lagrange or bust. According to Fangraphs, Lagrange is a FV50 prospect which corresponds to $33M in surplus value. I don't believe that was on the table, or ever would be. We would probably be talking someone 6-9 in the Yankees system as the headliner and Twins fans upset with that return. It's possible that Ben Hess could have headlined that return, but he has durability issues. I get your point about being less likely to hit and further away from MLB and agree with that aspect. My point is that Twins fans would have been upset either way and likely disappointed in the return if they had traded Jeffers.

What do you think we could have received for Jeffers, a 2 month rental coming off 8 weeks on the IL? Jeffers, was tied to the Yankees, what would you expect from the Yankees in return for Jeffers?

The qualifying offer has to be made within 5 days after the world series concludes and players have until Mid-November to accept (roughly 10 days after the QO is made). The current CBA doesn't expire until December 1st, so the QO still applies to this crop of free agents. Whether or not the QO is a part of the next CBA doesn't apply. The QO is a no brainer. That is the only way it makes sense to keep Jeffers. However, Gleeman has insinuated that the Twins are viewing the QO more like a 50/50 chance. Yes, Jeffers was at peak value near the trade deadline, but he had also missed 8 weeks due to the hamate injury. We don't know what was offered for Jeffers, but several outlets confirmed there was interest in Jeffers. However, the value you would have received from a 2 month rental that just spent 8 weeks on the IL probably would have disappointed most. In that case, the value of the comp pick we would get if Jeffers turns down the QO is probably similar to the return we would have received. The question is, will Jeffers take the guaranteed 1 year payday of the QO given the uncertainty of the next CBA? Who knows, but worst case scenario is we have Jeffers on a 1 year short term committment. He will have to make that decision prior to the current CBA expiring.

He also couldn't have been transferred to the 60-day IL, because the 60-day doesn't exist in MiLB and only exists as it pertains to the MLB roster. If they were to transfer him to the 60-day IL, he would have to be promoted to MLB and be paid a MLB salary. On top of that, the IL goes away after the season so he would be taking a roster spot then as well.

I didn’t see it reported anywhere here, but Fedko was released by the Twins. He is signing a minor league deal with the Pirates.

Keeping Jeffers only makes sense if they were going to extend a QO. Gleeman has reported that the QO is still up in the air for Jeffers and also stated that Jeffers would likely decline. It will be an interesting choice given Jeffers will have to make a decision in November and the lockout starting December 1st. It's likely that free agency will be significantly shortened. I do wonder if Jeffers would accept a QO and take a guaranteed $23M contract vs the unknown. Worst case scenario, we have Jeffers one more year or get a comp pick. He will likely get 4/$80M anyway.

Tom Pohlad has committed to raising the payroll in 2027. How much remains to be seen, but he has admitted that cutting payroll for the 2024 season was mistake. https://www.mlb.com/news/twins-chairman-tom-pohlad-says-twins-will-increase-payroll-in-2027