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Chembry

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Everything posted by Chembry

  1. Chembry
    I asked the question in the daily MLBTR chat session. Yes, Ryan would go back to arbitration if the mutual option is declined. Well arbitration eligible again. Pretty good news all around then.
  2. Chembry
    I don't think it's all good news though. Appears as if 2027 is a mutual option, which is rarely exercised. I'm not exactly clear on the rules for this type of mutual option. It would technically be his last year of arbitration. Does he go back to arbitration if the mutual option is declined?
  3. Chembry
    Twins avoid arbitration with Ryan
  4. Chembry
    The one contract Houston is looking to offload is Christian Walker. He still has 2 years left and $40M remaining.
  5. Chembry
    I don’t get the moves either. I’m not real high on Ohl, but he was ok when the Twins used him in single inning relief appearances. I don’t think he was ever going to be a high leverage guy, but a decent depth piece if kept to single inning relief appearances. I feel pretty confident that he will get claimed by another team. I am a bit more puzzled about Pereda. He still has an option remaining and he could be stashed at AAA as depth. I don’t think the Twins would have made this move if they intended on moving Jeffers. If they do DFA Jackson, which I fully expect, there is no guarantee he gets through waivers. What is even more puzzling is holding on to Julien. He is out of options and has no place to play. Right now, it’s really a waste of a 40 man spot, unless they think they can trade him for something (unlikely in my opinion). While I agree Outman should be DFAd, I don’t think they will do that until they get another look in spring training. He will probably get a longer look while Buxton is playing in the WBC. I will be paying close attention to how they use Outman while Buxton is away. I am keeping my fingers crossed, but hoping Michael A Taylor can improve Martin and Roden’s defense in CF so we don’t have to suffer through Outman’s 40% k rate anymore.
  6. Chembry
    Twins DFA’d Pierson Ohl, and Johnny Pereda today to make room for Caratini and Rogers.
  7. Chembry
    I agree it's a weird move...and I don't think the talks got that serious based on the reporting. But if the Twins were inquiring, they must have been willing to foot the $8M price tag. Who knows if they were trying to unload salary (i.e. Larnach). That may also mean that they have more money to spend. That means the Twins are still trying to upgrade the roster. That is my biggest takeaway from the piece.
  8. Chembry
    It's an interesting development. Here is the quote from the MLBTR article: " Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the Twins were among the teams to show some late interest in now-former Brewers ace Freddy Peralta before Milwaukee traded him to the Mets. Given Peralta’s status as a one-year rental, it’s clearly a surprising fit. The Twins have made some relatively small additions but don’t stand as a clear contender, even in a perennially weak AL Central division. That said, Peralta’s $8MM salary would fit into even their stripped-down budget, and the Twins have a plethora of MLB-ready young arms as well as a glut of young outfielders who have either already made their MLB debut or are on the cusp of MLB readiness. Acquiring Peralta would’ve boosted their chances in the Central. Peralta could’ve been shopped again at the deadline had the season not gone their way, and he’s a clear qualifying offer recipient who’d net a team a compensatory pick upon rejecting. It’s not clear how aggressively Minnesota pursued the idea, but it’s of at least minor note that they even looked into the possibility. The trade market has been largely picked over, particularly with MacKenzie Gore coming off the board in yesterday’s trade with the Rangers, but even faint Peralta interest suggests that the Twins could look into other moves on the buyers’ side of the trade spectrum." Link to article: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2026/01/twins-trade-rumors-freddy-peralta-brewers.html
  9. Chembry
    I am sure you are right. MLBTR posted some notes on the Twins today and they reported that the Twins were discussing a Peralta trade with the Brewers...I was surprised. So maybe they were also in a bidding war with CHW on Dominguez...That same article also mentioned the Twins have been in conversations with several relievers as of late, so we could see at least one more addition relatively soon.
  10. Chembry
    MLBTR predicted 2/$18M, Fangraphs predicted 2/$16M, ESPN predicted 2/$15M. 2/$20M seems a bit high, but good for the White Sox. He was probably the best arm available at this time.
  11. Chembry
    Dasan Hill was also in consideration for Baseball America's top 100. https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/20-mlb-prospects-who-just-missed-the-2026-top-100/
  12. Chembry
    I will echo your comments and say the return is underwhelming. I know Gore struggled the second half of the year, but I would have thought the return would have been better. I guess the Nationals chose quantity over quality. Texas only has 1 high end prospect (Walcott) though and I am guessing he was a non-starter.
  13. Chembry
    https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2026/01/twins-to-sign-taylor-rogers.html
  14. Chembry
    For those interested, Tim Dierkes of MLBTR wrote a very good article on MLB Parity and salary cap. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2026/01/is-mlb-parity-possible-without-a-salary-cap.html#comments
  15. Chembry
    I agree that Prielipp should be given every chance to make the team out of ST for all the reasons you stated. Historically, the Twins don't like to spend much money on the bullpen and believe they can build a bullpen with mostly internal candidates. Since Falvey did name Prielipp and eluded to him as a BP candidate at the GM meetings, his 2026 fate may already be sealed. Raya was also mentioned in the same conversation.
  16. Chembry
    I am sure they think about it, but it's a very high bar. The candidate has to win ROY or finish in top 3 of either MVP or Cy Young prior to arbitration. Even if they win ROY, they either have to break camp with the team or called up within 2 weeks of opening day. Buxton had a career year and finished in 11th place. Nick Kurtz would have won a PPI pick for the A's, but he wasn't promoted until late May. If he finishes in, top 3 MVP voting the next 2 years, he will win the A's a PPI pick. Since it's such a high bar, I don't think it plays any role as to when a prospect is promoted. For that caliber of prospect, one would think the extra year of service time is more valuable to the team, but I may be off base in that line of thought.
  17. Chembry
    Baseball America also released their top 100 for 2026 today: 5. Walker Jenkins 57. Emmanuel Rodriguez 74. Kaelen Culpepper 94. Connor Prielipp https://www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/2026-top-100-prospects/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=top-100-prospects-for-2026&_bhlid=309618f3d09ad0fa1fe9c7b196605db3cb5619e3 MiLB's top 100 comes out on Friday
  18. Chembry
    Just a minor point of clarification, Will Holland isn't in the Twins organization anymore. He selected minor league free agency in November.
  19. Chembry
    Ryan Jeffers was the guest on today's inside Twins episode (1/20/2026). He was asked about Caratini and what communication he has had with the Twins on that front. Jeffers response was that he had conversations with FO and staff that Caratini may happen. He was reassured by the FO and staff that his role of catching 100+ games isn't going to change. Hearing that from Jeffers tells me that Jackson is the odd man out and really was there to set the floor. At the time the Twins traded for Jackson, they were in this weird limbo. They didn't know if they would have any spending capability and they brought in a solid defensive minded backup.
  20. Chembry
    I am a my choice member (STH) and I just got an email that redemption begins tomorrow (1/21/2026).
  21. Chembry
    I absolutely agree with that. I played NAIA college baseball and we were competitive with DII programs, so I know all about differences. I was a P/OF and topped out at 89mph from the OF and 86 from the mound. I was just noting the data we have at hand. It makes no sense that he when he is fully recovered he can't at least get back to what he was at in high school, especially since his body has matured more. What I will say is that, from the prep report, I can't tell you where that throw occurred (from IF or OF). All we can reference is last years MLB data and scouting reports.
  22. Chembry
    Here are the facts: Keascall was throwing harder in high school than he is now. His prep scouting report from 2019 shows him clocked at 83mph while Baseball Savant has him 74.9mph last year in MLB....Why is that? Because he had TJ surgery in August 2024. So most of last year he was less than 12 months removed from surgery. It's a reasonable assumption he can and will get back to his HS arm strength. If he does that, it would put him at about the 45th percentile in MLB. His Baseball America scouting report has him graded at 50 for arm strength, which is average, and right near that 45th percentile.
  23. Chembry
    No move has been announced yet. As far as I am aware, there isn’t a specific timeframe between the agreement and corresponding roster moves. I know this is unusual, but Pirates agreed with Ryan O’Hearn on 12/23/2025, but didn’t make the corresponding roster move until 1/13/2026. In that case, it was over the Holidays and O’Hearn just had a baby. The deal was pending a physical and it took a while to get his physical and make the deal official.
  24. Chembry
    Your questioning workload, not converting him to catcher. It’s a valid concern, but why are you assuming Caratini is starting almost 100g, even with Jeffers on the roster? The Twins have stated that Jeffers will take the lions share of the workload. That will still be true even with Caratini on the roster. Assuming no Jeffers trade, Caratini will more than likely start 50-60g, just as he has in the last 3 years. Let’s wait to see what the corresponding move is or what the lineup looks like late in spring training before we start make assumptions. When you say, no teams have signed him yet, I am guessing you are inferring that no team views him as a catcher. That’s obviously not true. MLBTR stated the Phillies were connected to Caratini and viewed him as a backup option to JT Realmuto. The logic that because a free agent is available later in the offseason means no team wants them is unfounded. By that logic, nobody should want Bellinger since he is still available. Caratini was probably waiting for Realmuto to sign before deciding his future. That’s not uncommon. He was the second best catcher available on the free agent market, according to WAR. Bellinger was probably waiting for Tucker to sign to see if his options open up…
  25. Chembry
    How can you say teams don’t view Caratini as a catcher and the Twins will covert him? 79% of games played in MLB are at C. In his 9-year career, he has started 496 games, 424 of them at C. He was the Phillies back up option for Catcher. He has also spent the vast majority of his playing time the last 3 years at catcher. 75% of his innings played since 2023 are at C. He has positional flexibility, but more than likely the back up C. 2025 was the first year he ever started at DH.
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