Chembry

I kept a running tally of how many games the bullpen blew after the deadline. The Twins blew 19 leads or ties in the 6th inning or later after the deadline. Some of them didn't count in the loss column because they came back and won a few of those games. Some of those types of games are going to happen, but let's say they only blow 9 leads...well now they are closer to .500 overall and over .500 after the deadline. This team really isn't as far off as people think. The bullpen was the big problem after the deadline and will be the problem heading into 2026.

Do we have an OF that we could trade for Caglianone? I doubt KC would do that, but I would be interested. Cags could play 1B and not be a detriment in the OF.

It was well reported that Jax requested the trade. At that point the Twins really didn't have much of a choice but to oblige. I don't think they had any intention of trading Jax. I also don't think they had any intention of trading Varland. Cory Provus stated in an interview right after the deadline that the Blue Jays had been trying to acquire Varland for a few years. I think they finally came up with an offer that Falvey couldn't refuse.

If O'Hearn is affordable, then Okamoto is as well. MLBTR predicts Okamoto will get a 4/$64M and O'Hearn is predicted at 2/$26M. They are within $3M of each other in terms of AAV. I know that is big to the Twins, but I would consider that relatively small difference in terms of MLB contracts. Now, the Twins haven't signed anyone to a deal longer than 1 year since Lopez signed his extension in April of 2023. Correa was the last FA signing that was longer than a 1 year deal. On top of that, Bader is the highest paid FA that the Twins signed since Correa at $6.25M. It would be a nice change if the Twins truly sign a power bat. The Pirates made an offer to Schwarber in the 4/$120M range...Seems like they are trying to compete with that pitching staff. Of course, they only have ~$30M in contracts on the books for 2026.

The Giants have been on record saying they are reluctant to long term high value deals (over $100M) on starting P. They view those types of contracts as significant risks because pitchers tend to wear down. However, a recent report from MLBTR says that the Giants did meet with Valdez at the GM meetings. They may be out on on all the top FA SP (Cease (already signed), Valdez, Imai, Suarez) if they can't sign them to shorter deals. A trade may be their best bet to secure SP. https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6852286/2025/12/01/sf-giants-tatsuya-imai-payroll/

You summed up my questions exactly. 1. We don't know what the Twins definition of a "power" hitter truly is. The true power hitting free agents are going to be out of the Twins price range. My pipe dream is Alonso, and yes I will keep dreaming. 2. The free agent names I mentioned (Hoskins, Lowe, O'Hearn, Okamoto) aren't true power hitters, but are far better than our current option and could still provide reasonable power. I am not a big believer in Hoskins, but I think the other 3 would be a significant improvement. Okamoto is an unknown, but he is one of Japan's best hitters and still has 60 grade power. I like Lowe because he doesn't have to be platooned, but yes he is a LHH 1B. I am not big on Andujar, but he could be our RHH 1B. I wouldn't want him to play anywhere else other than 1B/DH. 3. On the trade front, you summed up my feelings exactly. It will be difficult to get a power bat without trading Ryan, Lopez, or Buxton, unless we dig into our prospects. The only power hitting 1B what I would consider "cheaper" in terms of trade capital that I can think of off the top of my head is Casas. Some will love him and some will hate him. He has a big injury risk as well. I agree on Hoskins. I don't think he is the answer either. I think Boston DFA'd Lowe for two reasons. 1. He isn't worth the $13M salary that was predicted in arbitration 2. The Red Sox are pursuing Alonso and Murakami. They currently have Casas as a back up option.

There is always angst in Boston. My company is headquartered in Boston. I travel there regularly and have many friends that are Red Sox fans. They despise Breslow, most can’t stand Cora as a manager, and many feel like their owners are the “worst in baseball”. My experiences with Red Sox fans is that they will complain about everything. After they got bounced by the Yankees, my phone blew up with fire Cora texts from most of them.

Bobby Nightengale posted that the Twins are looking to add a power bat along with relievers. The big free agents are probably off the table (Alonso, Schwarber, Bregman, etc…), but I wonder if Okamoto, Lowe, O’Hearn, Hoskins, etc…fit the Twins definition? There are too many trade targets to mention, but that is always an option. The question then becomes, who gets traded to acquire said power bat? Personally, I don’t expect any news on Twins acquisitions from the winter meetings, unless it’s a trade, but hopefully it’s sooner rather than later.

I do think it’s a bit unfair to single out the Twins in regards to prospects that don’t develop as well as we hope. Yes, we want the Twins to improve, but they aren’t any worse than any other team in MLB in that regard. Take a look at top 5 prospects from each team from most years and you will find several that have struggled at the MLB level. I picked a few teams from 2020 and looked at their top 5 prospects: Braves: Cristian Pace (#13 ranked MLB) is 27 and back AAA, Ian Anderson (27, back in AAA), Kyle Wright (30, back in AAA) BAL: DL Hall has been up and down BOS: 2 of top 5 are in AAA at 27 and 30 (Jeter Downs and Bobby Dalbec), Bryan Mata, Gilberto Jimenez Cubs: Brailyn Marquez, Brennen Davis A more recent example is Jordan Walker of the Cardinals. #4 MLB prospect in 2023. Hit .276/.342/.445, 16HR in 117 games in 2023. Walker hit .201 in 2024, and .215 in 2025. I could go on, but every team has prospects every year that struggle or don’t develop as they expect. We just don’t hear about them very often and certainly don’t see it on a daily basis. Could/would we like the Twins to get better?…yes, but every team goes through this. The question remains, how much more rope do we give Julien/Gasper/Outman/etc…before placing them on waivers and moving on?

The most disappointing aspect of the Harry Ford trade was the price Washington paid to acquire him. Yes, Seattle got a decent reliever, but it seems like a low price for a catcher that has a decently high floor. Ford was one reason I was hoping to trade with SEA at the deadline, especially with catching being a need beyond 2026.

Nathaniel Lowe is also available, and could probably be had for a similar price range. He won a gold glove in 2023 and was a finalist in 2024. He also won a silver slugger in 2022. Career splits show he doesn’t have to be platooned. Career .258/.337/.392 against lefties. OPS+ since 2021 in succession 112, 139, 114, 123, 94 in 2025. Struggled in Washington, but right back to normal production with Boston. He has played at least 140g every year since 2021. Over is career, he has been a consistent 2-4 WAR player, with 2025 being the exception. He isn’t the sexiest name, but would be a solid contributor and lock down 1B for a few years. Lowe doesn’t have the positional flexibility Andujar has, but also isn’t a defensive liability, has a higher career OBP, similar SLG, higher career OPS, and career OPS+. Will also play every day. It will probably take at least a 2 year deal to get him, but it at least stabilizes the position and moves Clemens to utility which he is better suited for.

BBTV basic use is a guide and by no way should be taken as gospel. When trades occur I model them in BBTV to see what the likelihood of an acceptance would be. A few examples: 1. Grayson Rodriguez/Taylor Ward would be rejected by BBTV. 2. Sonny Gray trade would be rejected by BBTV, even after adding $20M cash 3. The Garcia/Oviedo trade would be accepted by BBTV. What really bothers me about BBTV is the people that propose trades of 8 minor leaguers, all in the 2-4 BBTV range for 1 MLB guy. No MLB executive would ever accept a trade like that. In all reality, we don't have any other way of evaluating a trade. Most of us know and understand it's limitations. It's really just a tool. In Buxton's case, his BBTV doesn't reflect his actual value. If you remember back to the player votes for the All-Star game. Buxton had the 4th most votes in MLB behind Judge, Raleigh, and Jose Ramirez. He had more player votes than Skubal, Ohtani, Schwarber, PCA, etc...I am not saying he is better than those guys, but it shows you how he is viewed in MLB. A perennial all-star, top 15-20 player in all of MLB when healthy. Those types of guys are valued very highly.

CJ Culpepper is Rule 5 eligible, not Kaelen Culpepper. Kaelen Culpepper isn’t rule 5 eligible yet. He was just drafted in 2024.

Agreed, ATL just doesn’t have the capital to make that trade. I listened to a couple of Braves podcasts today and they are speculating a package of Hurston Waldrep, JR Ritchie, and Nacho Alvarez seal the deal. Waldrep had a good 2025 and would be a nice addition, but we need bats and Nacho Alvarez isn’t it. I wonder if we could get Rushing from LAD for Buxton? He was a top 20 prospect heading into 2025, but didn’t have a very nice intro to MLB, and he is blocked by Will Smith and Freddie Freeman. But I don’t like even suggesting any of this because I really don’t want to see Buck go anywhere.

I think you are a bit misled on Jett Williams. He has a career 22% K rate in minors, 23% at AAA. While that's not great, it's not terrible would would be just above average in MLB. I did read today that Jett Williams had two throws over 95 mph last year. That was more the the Mets team all of 2025. His arm was only graded at a 50 on MLB pipeline, but 60 on BA. He also has elite speed at >30ft/sec. https://www.mlb.com/mets/news/how-jett-williams-factors-into-mets-plans?t=mets-pipeline-coverage I would prefer Benge as well, but I wouldn't be upset if he was part of the return for Ryan. Especially with his positional flexibility.

I was listening to a couple of podcasts yesterday and took away a few notes: 1. Ken Rosenthal stated on foul territory that he doesn't believe Buxton will waive his no trade clause unless Pablo and Ryan are traded. AJ Pierzynski also stated he doesn't believe Buxton will waive his NTC. 2. Gleeman stated on his podcast that it's unclear if this is stemming from the Dan Hayes piece in the Athletic and just finally making its way to Jeff Passan, or if this is new information.

I have seen graphics of payroll as a percentage of MLB payroll. If I am recalling correctly, I only found 2024 data. Over half of MLB teams spent 40-60% of revenue on payroll. The Twins were right in the middle of the pack spending 47-48% of revenue on MLB payroll. That doesn’t take operating expenses into consideration. The upper end was Dodgers and Mets who spent 70% or more of revenue on MLB payroll. The low end was Marlins, White Sox, Rays, Pirates, Brewers who spent closer to 30% of revenue on payroll.

The other really interesting piece to this trade is that the Angels agreed to the trade and didn’t require any medical evaluation for Rodriguez…Rodriguez himself confirmed it on the foul territory podcast. Other podcasts that I listened to speculated that if the Angels get 150-200 innings out of him over the next 4 years, they come out ahead. Elias is definitely gambling with this trade, but maybe they try to extend Ward?

I agree with you and I continually state that fact to many of the people here on TD. Especially to ones who are ready to cut Roden after 12G in a Twins uniform and 55G overall in MLB. My preference would be to trade for a 1B prospect or sign a FA. If we go the FA route, Lowe would be my preference over any other current FA (other than Alonso, but that isn't happening) However, we have a surplus of OF bats and Kody Clemens as the current starter at 1B. The argument could be made that if Emmanuel Rodriguez (or someone else) pushes his way onto the roster out of spring, another OF bat could be moved around to accommodate if necessary. The most likely of those in the current OF picture would be Roden, because he has experience at 1B. That frees up Clemens to step into the utility role where he is much better suited. Wallner or Larnach will never be a 1B, much to the dismay of many here on TD. The Twins must improve both their offense and defense. The goal is to put the best 9 bats in the lineup without sacrificing defense. With the surplus of OF bats, and the potential upside to many of those bats, that may require some positional flexibility, like moving Roden to 1B to put the best lineup on the field on a daily basis.

Defensive metrics can be a bit funny. Lowe won a GG in 2023 and was a finalist in 2024. He won’t be a defensive liability.

I think $10M is too much for Lowe. His salary last year was $10.5M and the Nationals couldn't find a trade partner for him. My guess is he could be had at $6-8M/yr coming off the worst season of his career. Pure speculation of course, but I think precedence has already been set that $10M is too much.

My first choice would be to trade for a 1B prospect as well, and there are plenty available. Guys like Eldridge. Briceno, Ballesteros, Tre' Morgan, probably Condon or Collier would headline the trade and would probably require Ryan in return. I seriously doubt Basallo is available. In a vacuum, guys like Ryan Clifford, Jonathon Long, Tyler Locklear, Abimelec Ortiz, Triston Casas wouldn't require the likes or Ryan or Lopez to acquire and could help the team.

Roden played 1B in college and summer ball between college seasons. He played more games at first in college than any other single position.

I don’t know…I updated my previous post to say that I don’t follow whoever that is…it showed up on my feed. That’s why I said I don’t know if there is any truth to it.

Don’t know if there is any truth to this…It just showed up on my feed, I don’t follow whoever that is