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Chembry

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Everything posted by Chembry

  1. Chembry
    That trade is horrible...SD has the worst farm system in baseball. They only have 1 prospect in the top 100 via MLB pipeline (Schoolcraft) and ESPN (Salas), and zero in BA's top 100. The proposed trade calls the return a "haul" for the Twins... Basically, it's trading Ryan and Buxton to SD for Nick Pavetta. Pavetta still has 4 years and $55M remaining. The top prospect they are sending back is Humberto Cruz. Cruz pitched 40 innings between 2 levels (rookie and A) and got beat up pretty bad (0-7, 7.20 ERA, 1.50 WHIP). I don't see how that is a haul and how that benefits the Twins in anyway. If you or anyone else is interested, Bleacher Report put out some mock trades yesterday. Both Buxton and Ryan are included. I would say the packages are much more respectable. https://bleacherreport.com/articles/25369823-fresh-mlb-trade-packages-top-10-rumored-targets
  2. Chembry
    The only knock Law pointed out was the ability to stay healthy. That is the major reason they are ranked so low. Here is a quote from the ranking: "The Twins would be much higher if they could just keep their best guys healthy. Two of their top three prospects have missed time every year with injuries, but I still see so much offensive potential in Walker Jenkins and Emmanuel Rodriguez that I just can’t quit them." Link to article: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6998285/2026/01/29/top-farm-systems-mlb-brewers-dodgers-mariners/?source=athletic_thewindup_newsletter&campaign=16602299&userId=28424238
  3. Chembry
    Spencer Jones should be a hard pass as part of any return the Yankees could give the Twins. Yes, the power is real, but so are the K's. They have climbed significantly as he has ascended through the minors. A (22g): 19% A+ (100g): 29% AA: (190g): 35% AAA (67g): 37% That's not automatically going to improve in the jump to MLB and will more than likely head north of 40%. Even with a 37% K rate at AAA, he posted respectable numbers (.274/.342/.897/19 HR/19 SB). It's just really hard to see how that will translate into success at MLB.
  4. Chembry
    Jenkins (5) Rodriguez (57) Culpepper (74) Prielipp (94) https://www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/2026-top-100-prospects/
  5. Chembry
    Not opening day, but called up within the first two weeks of opening day: https://www.mlb.com/news/prospect-promotion-incentive-faq MLB Pipeline published their list last Friday. Four are in the top 100: Jenkins (14), Culpepper (52), Tait (65), Rodriguez (74) https://www.mlb.com/milb/prospects
  6. Chembry
    Agreed with everything you said. However, Larnach is only in Arb2 and not a UFA until 2028.
  7. Chembry
    I asked the question in the daily MLBTR chat session. Yes, Ryan would go back to arbitration if the mutual option is declined. Well arbitration eligible again. Pretty good news all around then.
  8. Chembry
    I don't think it's all good news though. Appears as if 2027 is a mutual option, which is rarely exercised. I'm not exactly clear on the rules for this type of mutual option. It would technically be his last year of arbitration. Does he go back to arbitration if the mutual option is declined?
  9. Chembry
    Twins avoid arbitration with Ryan
  10. Chembry
    The one contract Houston is looking to offload is Christian Walker. He still has 2 years left and $40M remaining.
  11. Chembry
    I don’t get the moves either. I’m not real high on Ohl, but he was ok when the Twins used him in single inning relief appearances. I don’t think he was ever going to be a high leverage guy, but a decent depth piece if kept to single inning relief appearances. I feel pretty confident that he will get claimed by another team. I am a bit more puzzled about Pereda. He still has an option remaining and he could be stashed at AAA as depth. I don’t think the Twins would have made this move if they intended on moving Jeffers. If they do DFA Jackson, which I fully expect, there is no guarantee he gets through waivers. What is even more puzzling is holding on to Julien. He is out of options and has no place to play. Right now, it’s really a waste of a 40 man spot, unless they think they can trade him for something (unlikely in my opinion). While I agree Outman should be DFAd, I don’t think they will do that until they get another look in spring training. He will probably get a longer look while Buxton is playing in the WBC. I will be paying close attention to how they use Outman while Buxton is away. I am keeping my fingers crossed, but hoping Michael A Taylor can improve Martin and Roden’s defense in CF so we don’t have to suffer through Outman’s 40% k rate anymore.
  12. Chembry
    Twins DFA’d Pierson Ohl, and Johnny Pereda today to make room for Caratini and Rogers.
  13. Chembry
    I agree it's a weird move...and I don't think the talks got that serious based on the reporting. But if the Twins were inquiring, they must have been willing to foot the $8M price tag. Who knows if they were trying to unload salary (i.e. Larnach). That may also mean that they have more money to spend. That means the Twins are still trying to upgrade the roster. That is my biggest takeaway from the piece.
  14. Chembry
    It's an interesting development. Here is the quote from the MLBTR article: " Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the Twins were among the teams to show some late interest in now-former Brewers ace Freddy Peralta before Milwaukee traded him to the Mets. Given Peralta’s status as a one-year rental, it’s clearly a surprising fit. The Twins have made some relatively small additions but don’t stand as a clear contender, even in a perennially weak AL Central division. That said, Peralta’s $8MM salary would fit into even their stripped-down budget, and the Twins have a plethora of MLB-ready young arms as well as a glut of young outfielders who have either already made their MLB debut or are on the cusp of MLB readiness. Acquiring Peralta would’ve boosted their chances in the Central. Peralta could’ve been shopped again at the deadline had the season not gone their way, and he’s a clear qualifying offer recipient who’d net a team a compensatory pick upon rejecting. It’s not clear how aggressively Minnesota pursued the idea, but it’s of at least minor note that they even looked into the possibility. The trade market has been largely picked over, particularly with MacKenzie Gore coming off the board in yesterday’s trade with the Rangers, but even faint Peralta interest suggests that the Twins could look into other moves on the buyers’ side of the trade spectrum." Link to article: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2026/01/twins-trade-rumors-freddy-peralta-brewers.html
  15. Chembry
    I am sure you are right. MLBTR posted some notes on the Twins today and they reported that the Twins were discussing a Peralta trade with the Brewers...I was surprised. So maybe they were also in a bidding war with CHW on Dominguez...That same article also mentioned the Twins have been in conversations with several relievers as of late, so we could see at least one more addition relatively soon.
  16. Chembry
    MLBTR predicted 2/$18M, Fangraphs predicted 2/$16M, ESPN predicted 2/$15M. 2/$20M seems a bit high, but good for the White Sox. He was probably the best arm available at this time.
  17. Chembry
    Dasan Hill was also in consideration for Baseball America's top 100. https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/20-mlb-prospects-who-just-missed-the-2026-top-100/
  18. Chembry
    I will echo your comments and say the return is underwhelming. I know Gore struggled the second half of the year, but I would have thought the return would have been better. I guess the Nationals chose quantity over quality. Texas only has 1 high end prospect (Walcott) though and I am guessing he was a non-starter.
  19. Chembry
    https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2026/01/twins-to-sign-taylor-rogers.html
  20. Chembry
    For those interested, Tim Dierkes of MLBTR wrote a very good article on MLB Parity and salary cap. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2026/01/is-mlb-parity-possible-without-a-salary-cap.html#comments
  21. Chembry
    I agree that Prielipp should be given every chance to make the team out of ST for all the reasons you stated. Historically, the Twins don't like to spend much money on the bullpen and believe they can build a bullpen with mostly internal candidates. Since Falvey did name Prielipp and eluded to him as a BP candidate at the GM meetings, his 2026 fate may already be sealed. Raya was also mentioned in the same conversation.
  22. Chembry
    I am sure they think about it, but it's a very high bar. The candidate has to win ROY or finish in top 3 of either MVP or Cy Young prior to arbitration. Even if they win ROY, they either have to break camp with the team or called up within 2 weeks of opening day. Buxton had a career year and finished in 11th place. Nick Kurtz would have won a PPI pick for the A's, but he wasn't promoted until late May. If he finishes in, top 3 MVP voting the next 2 years, he will win the A's a PPI pick. Since it's such a high bar, I don't think it plays any role as to when a prospect is promoted. For that caliber of prospect, one would think the extra year of service time is more valuable to the team, but I may be off base in that line of thought.
  23. Chembry
    Baseball America also released their top 100 for 2026 today: 5. Walker Jenkins 57. Emmanuel Rodriguez 74. Kaelen Culpepper 94. Connor Prielipp https://www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/2026-top-100-prospects/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=top-100-prospects-for-2026&_bhlid=309618f3d09ad0fa1fe9c7b196605db3cb5619e3 MiLB's top 100 comes out on Friday
  24. Chembry
    Just a minor point of clarification, Will Holland isn't in the Twins organization anymore. He selected minor league free agency in November.
  25. Chembry
    Ryan Jeffers was the guest on today's inside Twins episode (1/20/2026). He was asked about Caratini and what communication he has had with the Twins on that front. Jeffers response was that he had conversations with FO and staff that Caratini may happen. He was reassured by the FO and staff that his role of catching 100+ games isn't going to change. Hearing that from Jeffers tells me that Jackson is the odd man out and really was there to set the floor. At the time the Twins traded for Jackson, they were in this weird limbo. They didn't know if they would have any spending capability and they brought in a solid defensive minded backup.
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