Chembry

MLBTR predicted 2/$18M, Fangraphs predicted 2/$16M, ESPN predicted 2/$15M. 2/$20M seems a bit high, but good for the White Sox. He was probably the best arm available at this time.

Dasan Hill was also in consideration for Baseball America's top 100. https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/20-mlb-prospects-who-just-missed-the-2026-top-100/

I will echo your comments and say the return is underwhelming. I know Gore struggled the second half of the year, but I would have thought the return would have been better. I guess the Nationals chose quantity over quality. Texas only has 1 high end prospect (Walcott) though and I am guessing he was a non-starter.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2026/01/twins-to-sign-taylor-rogers.html

For those interested, Tim Dierkes of MLBTR wrote a very good article on MLB Parity and salary cap. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2026/01/is-mlb-parity-possible-without-a-salary-cap.html#comments

I agree that Prielipp should be given every chance to make the team out of ST for all the reasons you stated. Historically, the Twins don't like to spend much money on the bullpen and believe they can build a bullpen with mostly internal candidates. Since Falvey did name Prielipp and eluded to him as a BP candidate at the GM meetings, his 2026 fate may already be sealed. Raya was also mentioned in the same conversation.

I am sure they think about it, but it's a very high bar. The candidate has to win ROY or finish in top 3 of either MVP or Cy Young prior to arbitration. Even if they win ROY, they either have to break camp with the team or called up within 2 weeks of opening day. Buxton had a career year and finished in 11th place. Nick Kurtz would have won a PPI pick for the A's, but he wasn't promoted until late May. If he finishes in, top 3 MVP voting the next 2 years, he will win the A's a PPI pick. Since it's such a high bar, I don't think it plays any role as to when a prospect is promoted. For that caliber of prospect, one would think the extra year of service time is more valuable to the team, but I may be off base in that line of thought.

Baseball America also released their top 100 for 2026 today: 5. Walker Jenkins 57. Emmanuel Rodriguez 74. Kaelen Culpepper 94. Connor Prielipp https://www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/2026-top-100-prospects/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=top-100-prospects-for-2026&_bhlid=309618f3d09ad0fa1fe9c7b196605db3cb5619e3 MiLB's top 100 comes out on Friday

Just a minor point of clarification, Will Holland isn't in the Twins organization anymore. He selected minor league free agency in November.

Ryan Jeffers was the guest on today's inside Twins episode (1/20/2026). He was asked about Caratini and what communication he has had with the Twins on that front. Jeffers response was that he had conversations with FO and staff that Caratini may happen. He was reassured by the FO and staff that his role of catching 100+ games isn't going to change. Hearing that from Jeffers tells me that Jackson is the odd man out and really was there to set the floor. At the time the Twins traded for Jackson, they were in this weird limbo. They didn't know if they would have any spending capability and they brought in a solid defensive minded backup.

I am a my choice member (STH) and I just got an email that redemption begins tomorrow (1/21/2026).

I absolutely agree with that. I played NAIA college baseball and we were competitive with DII programs, so I know all about differences. I was a P/OF and topped out at 89mph from the OF and 86 from the mound. I was just noting the data we have at hand. It makes no sense that he when he is fully recovered he can't at least get back to what he was at in high school, especially since his body has matured more. What I will say is that, from the prep report, I can't tell you where that throw occurred (from IF or OF). All we can reference is last years MLB data and scouting reports.

Here are the facts: Keascall was throwing harder in high school than he is now. His prep scouting report from 2019 shows him clocked at 83mph while Baseball Savant has him 74.9mph last year in MLB....Why is that? Because he had TJ surgery in August 2024. So most of last year he was less than 12 months removed from surgery. It's a reasonable assumption he can and will get back to his HS arm strength. If he does that, it would put him at about the 45th percentile in MLB. His Baseball America scouting report has him graded at 50 for arm strength, which is average, and right near that 45th percentile.

No move has been announced yet. As far as I am aware, there isn’t a specific timeframe between the agreement and corresponding roster moves. I know this is unusual, but Pirates agreed with Ryan O’Hearn on 12/23/2025, but didn’t make the corresponding roster move until 1/13/2026. In that case, it was over the Holidays and O’Hearn just had a baby. The deal was pending a physical and it took a while to get his physical and make the deal official.

Your questioning workload, not converting him to catcher. It’s a valid concern, but why are you assuming Caratini is starting almost 100g, even with Jeffers on the roster? The Twins have stated that Jeffers will take the lions share of the workload. That will still be true even with Caratini on the roster. Assuming no Jeffers trade, Caratini will more than likely start 50-60g, just as he has in the last 3 years. Let’s wait to see what the corresponding move is or what the lineup looks like late in spring training before we start make assumptions. When you say, no teams have signed him yet, I am guessing you are inferring that no team views him as a catcher. That’s obviously not true. MLBTR stated the Phillies were connected to Caratini and viewed him as a backup option to JT Realmuto. The logic that because a free agent is available later in the offseason means no team wants them is unfounded. By that logic, nobody should want Bellinger since he is still available. Caratini was probably waiting for Realmuto to sign before deciding his future. That’s not uncommon. He was the second best catcher available on the free agent market, according to WAR. Bellinger was probably waiting for Tucker to sign to see if his options open up…

How can you say teams don’t view Caratini as a catcher and the Twins will covert him? 79% of games played in MLB are at C. In his 9-year career, he has started 496 games, 424 of them at C. He was the Phillies back up option for Catcher. He has also spent the vast majority of his playing time the last 3 years at catcher. 75% of his innings played since 2023 are at C. He has positional flexibility, but more than likely the back up C. 2025 was the first year he ever started at DH.

Like you, I have watched Prielipp a number of times. To me, your take is spot on. At 25, with his injury history and only pitching 140 innings since 2020, it's a big question mark whether he can handle a starters workload. That question may not be answered until 2027/2028. Prielipp has some plus pitches, but he needs to learn to pitch against MLB hitters. The only way to do that is pitch in MLB. Additionally, Falvey stated Prielipp by name at the GM meetings as a bullpen candidate for 2026, so his move to the BP may already be decided.

According to Forbes' list from 2025, the Dodgers MLB payroll is more than 20 teams gross revenue. https://www.forbes.com/mlb-valuations/list/

As of today, the Dodgers are carrying an estimated $429M payroll in 2026...

MLBTR has a player database with agents. According to MLBTR, Ryan is represented by CAA Sports, not Boras.

What this is saying is they checked in on Dominguez. At that point, his price was higher than what they were willing to pay and probably will check again later, if he remains unsigned. If he goes unsigned into late January/early February, Dominguez's asking price will more than likely come down. The Twins like to play the game of wait out the market, especially for RP. Typically a $8M RP in November/December will come down to $5-6M in late January/early February. The Twins see that as a good value. It's a risky game though because the RPs that are left at that point all have some questions. This year, the RP market has moved relatively quickly. Waiting paid off last year and got good value on Danny Coulombe, who signed in early February.

Yes, Nico is a free agent after 2026

I have floated this idea around before on here and it didn't gain much traction, mostly because there are many trade targets one could pursue. Matt Shaw would fit in well as a headliner if the Twins were to trade Ryan to the Cubs. In fact, the Cubs have several potential headliners as trade candidates that could be of interest Wiggins, Ballesteros, Rojas, and Shaw all fit as headliners. I really like Jonathon Long as well, but as part of the package, not a headliner. Long is also blocked by Busch, but he may be a platoon partner. Shaw has the upside we should be looking for in a trade. He seems to have figured out something in the second half of 2025 and would fill a hole in the lineup. Defensively, he shows different metrics between fielding bible and baseball savant so it would be similar to Lewis. Shaw has played 2B so that would allow Keaschall to move to a better position for him (1B or OF). He could also steal a few bases as well. I terms of what would start the conversation, beyond Ryan, I don't know if the Twins have anything that entice the Cubs to move Shaw (or any of the other headliners). Happ is in his last year of the contract and I am not sure the Cubs like Alcantra that much, so maybe Emmanuel Rodriguez starts the conversation? That being said, Hoerner is in his last year, so in all likelihood the Cubs hold on to Shaw and use him in a utility role for 2026. But, I also know Shaw has ruffled some feathers within the Cubs organization for being "uncoachable". I think the Cubs hold on to Shaw (or any of the other headliners I mentioned) unless they get a top of the rotation type of starter, https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6960882/2026/01/11/alex-bregman-cubs-red-sox-bo-bichette/

Below is a picture of Royce and Buxton from August 2025. Royce either struck out or popped out in a big spot and showed frustration. Buxton had his arm around Royce and were talking the entire time in between innings. I don't think you need more evidence showing Buxton is more than just a lead by example guy. At the same time, you can have more than one "leader" in the clubhouse. Hopefully, Bell will add an additional voice of support, an additional sounding board, or whatever is needed for the younger hitters to take that next step.

Yes, the Twins were 19-35 post deadline, a 57 win pace. However, the bullpen blew 19 leads or ties in the 6th inning or later after the deadline. 17 recorded as losses as the Twins came back to win 2 of those 19 blown leads. I kept a running tally. The bullpen is the major reason they were on such a horrible pace, not the only reason though. Some of those games are going to happen, but if those 17 blown leads/recorded losses were cut in half, now we are much closer to .500 team. For some reason the Twins decided to run out retread relievers (like Hatch, Kriske, Ramirez, etc...) instead of giving some of the younger guys MLB experience out of the pen. Giving those younger guys experience facing MLB hitters could have given them a jump start to this year. I say the above paragraph with a caveat as the Twins still haven't addressed that need yet. I do believe they will end up signing 2 relievers, but traditionally they won't do that until late January/early February. Hopefully, they also give Prielipp a real shot to make the team in a reliever role, as Falvey noted at the GM meetings. He will be on a innings limit anyway. I do also see them converting one of the 4-5 starters competing for the #5 spot to the bullpen.