Chembry

The Dodgers claimed Michael Siani on December 12th and signed Andy Ibanez to a 1 year $1.2M MLB deal as a free agent on January 13th. Kyle Tucker agreed to his deal with the Dodgers on January 21st. To make room for him they DFAd Siani. Siani was claimed by the Yankeeson January 23rd. The Yankees DFAd Siani to make room for Angel Chivilli on January 29th. Now February 3rd, the Dodgers claimed Siani and DFAd Andy Ibanez who they just signed a $1.2M free agent deal less then a month ago… Crazy to claim the same guy off waivers twice in the same offseason, but equally as crazy to DFA a guy you just signed as a free agent, even if it’s only a $1.2M contract. I know claiming the same guy in the same offseason has happened before, but not very often. Adam Rosales was claimed 4 times (twice by the Rangers and twice by the A’s) in a span of about 10 days.

I would be on board with that move. Houston is also looking for LHH outfielders. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2026/01/astros-notes-altuve-infield-left-handed-bats.html

That's interesting...I never knew that.

Yes he is a FA. He pitched in 26g for the Nationals last year and wasn't very good (24 ip, 6.57 ERA, 1.297 WHIP, 3.50 FIP which suggests he was a bit unlucky). He was pretty decent in 2024 for both the Cubs and the Mets.

I have seen a few predictions on Kopech. Dodgers nations is ~$6.5M AAV and Just Baseball is thinking ~$7.5M AAV...Those seem way too high for me, but who really knows what is going on behind the scenes. I would be onboard with Kopech at 1yr/$5M. That's less than what he earned last year. I think the others will be between $1.5-3M on 1yr deals.

Cody Laweryson was DFA'd by the Angels today. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2026/02/angels-designate-cody-laweryson-for-assignment.html

I have been meaning to reply to this thread for a while, but life and Friday's news kind of got in the way. Here are some RHRP still available (in order of decreasing projected WAR): Scott Barlow, Evan Phillips, Dauri Moreta, Ryan Brasier, Liam Hendrichs, Jose Leclerc, Paul Sewald, Jorge Lopez, Luke Jackson, Lou Trivino, Joe Ross, Michael Kopech, Michael Tonkin, Kendall Graveman, Tommy Kahnle, and Scott McGough. Those are all the RHRP still available with a projected WAR ≥ 0. For me, two names stand out. Michael Kopech and Evan Phillips. Both have an injury history but still have significant upside. Kopech is boom or bust. He has the highest upside of any FA RHRP available. Phillips had mostly minor injuries until TJ surgery in May 2025, so he will be out most of the year. He was the closer for the 2023 and 2024 Dodgers. I really like Phillips, however standard timetable puts him back around September 1st, so it's really not worth signing him now. Of those, I would prefer Kopech. Barlow is ok, but his walk rate has increased dramatically over the past couple of years, which has corresponded with a decrease in his FB velocity. Tells me he is trying to dot the corners a bit more instead of relying purely on stuff. His hard hit rate is still pretty low, near the top of MLB though. In reality, I would be ok with most of those guys. But I am not real high on Tonkin, Sewald, Jorge Lopez (obvious reasons). There are a few others that are a bit lower in projected WAR, but may be interesting: Rafael Montero, Hunter Strickland. Shelby Miller would have been interesting, but he is out for 2026.

I am guessing you didn’t read Law’s rationale. The only reason they are ranked low is health, not talent. His rationale is valid, but we are not devoid of talent. Here is a quote from the ranking: "The Twins would be much higher if they could just keep their best guys healthy. Two of their top three prospects have missed time every year with injuries, but I still see so much offensive potential in Walker Jenkins and Emmanuel Rodriguez that I just can’t quit them." Link to article: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6998285/2026/01/29/top-farm-systems-mlb-brewers-dodgers-mariners/?source=athletic_thewindup_newsletter&campaign=16602299&userId=28424238 ESPN has the system ranked 8th. https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/47684217/2026-mlb-prospect-rankings-farm-systems-kiley-mcdaniel-brewers-guardians-pirates-dodgers-mets

The deal became official January 23rd.

Wondering if this is fallout from the deadline fire sale.

The timing of this is definitely odd...

I also believe, in general, the Twins treat their players well. I will add some detail that I don't think many know. It was Pressly who reached out to the Twins to see if he could help out in a player development role in the bullpen. The Twins didn't reach out to Pressly. Pressly played 6.5 years in Houston and from Dallas area. One would think if he wanted to get into coaching/player development, Houston would be the logical fit, but he chose the Twins. This was stated on a recent Gleeman and the Geek episode.

John Coppolella is a former GM of the Braves. He wrote a fantastic article on the Tarik Skubal situation for Baseball America. If you are interested in the inner workings and why this case is important, not only for the Tigers but the future of Skenes or any other pitcher of that caliber, it's definitely worth the read. I will be following this case closely. https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/inside-what-goes-on-in-mlb-arbitration-hearings-how-tarik-skubals-negotiation-might-unfold/

Here is his prospect savant profile: On top of what @tony&rodney said, his power is real. Max exit velocity of 113.8 MPH at 18/19 years old is pretty crazy. A better predictor of power is 90th% EV and Tait's is still 105.9 mph. If you want to compare he has posted a higher max EV and 90th% EV than Walker Jenkins. The thought is that will translate into HR power as he ages.

There are a few that note that stat, but it's putting quite a bit of optimism in 49 PA. Especially since his previous 460 were abysmal.

Law also stated that health is the only reason they are that low. Here is a direct quote from his rankings: "The Twins would be much higher if they could just keep their best guys healthy. Two of their top three prospects have missed time every year with injuries, but I still see so much offensive potential in Walker Jenkins and Emmanuel Rodriguez that I just can’t quit them."

Exactly! The landscape is changing all the time. Next week, any of the other 29 MLB teams may have an injury to their primary C or one of their SP. They may come asking the Twins for Jeffers or Ryan/Lopez with a trade package that changes the Twins mind. Ha-Seong Kim was back in Korea, slipped on some ice and tore a tendon in his right middle finger. He had surgery to repair and now is out until June. I believe this is exactly what happened when the Twins traded Varland. I don't think the Twins had any intention of trading Varland. Cory Provus gave some color commentary a few days after the deadline and said that the Blue Jays had been trying to acquire Varland for a few years. They really like Varland. When the Blue Jays came back with a package of Rojas (who the Twins really like) and Roden (who has crushed AAA), the Twins said yes. The question starts at the 4 minute timepoint:

That trade is horrible...SD has the worst farm system in baseball. They only have 1 prospect in the top 100 via MLB pipeline (Schoolcraft) and ESPN (Salas), and zero in BA's top 100. The proposed trade calls the return a "haul" for the Twins... Basically, it's trading Ryan and Buxton to SD for Nick Pavetta. Pavetta still has 4 years and $55M remaining. The top prospect they are sending back is Humberto Cruz. Cruz pitched 40 innings between 2 levels (rookie and A) and got beat up pretty bad (0-7, 7.20 ERA, 1.50 WHIP). I don't see how that is a haul and how that benefits the Twins in anyway. If you or anyone else is interested, Bleacher Report put out some mock trades yesterday. Both Buxton and Ryan are included. I would say the packages are much more respectable. https://bleacherreport.com/articles/25369823-fresh-mlb-trade-packages-top-10-rumored-targets

The only knock Law pointed out was the ability to stay healthy. That is the major reason they are ranked so low. Here is a quote from the ranking: "The Twins would be much higher if they could just keep their best guys healthy. Two of their top three prospects have missed time every year with injuries, but I still see so much offensive potential in Walker Jenkins and Emmanuel Rodriguez that I just can’t quit them." Link to article: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6998285/2026/01/29/top-farm-systems-mlb-brewers-dodgers-mariners/?source=athletic_thewindup_newsletter&campaign=16602299&userId=28424238

Spencer Jones should be a hard pass as part of any return the Yankees could give the Twins. Yes, the power is real, but so are the K's. They have climbed significantly as he has ascended through the minors. A (22g): 19% A+ (100g): 29% AA: (190g): 35% AAA (67g): 37% That's not automatically going to improve in the jump to MLB and will more than likely head north of 40%. Even with a 37% K rate at AAA, he posted respectable numbers (.274/.342/.897/19 HR/19 SB). It's just really hard to see how that will translate into success at MLB.

Jenkins (5) Rodriguez (57) Culpepper (74) Prielipp (94) https://www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/2026-top-100-prospects/

Not opening day, but called up within the first two weeks of opening day: https://www.mlb.com/news/prospect-promotion-incentive-faq MLB Pipeline published their list last Friday. Four are in the top 100: Jenkins (14), Culpepper (52), Tait (65), Rodriguez (74) https://www.mlb.com/milb/prospects

Agreed with everything you said. However, Larnach is only in Arb2 and not a UFA until 2028.

I asked the question in the daily MLBTR chat session. Yes, Ryan would go back to arbitration if the mutual option is declined. Well arbitration eligible again. Pretty good news all around then.

I don't think it's all good news though. Appears as if 2027 is a mutual option, which is rarely exercised. I'm not exactly clear on the rules for this type of mutual option. It would technically be his last year of arbitration. Does he go back to arbitration if the mutual option is declined?