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Chembry

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Everything posted by Chembry

  1. Chembry
    I can't speak for Cody, but Gleeman stated on his podcast ~1 month ago, give or take a bit of time, that someone from the Twins spoke off the record about the QO. At that time, it was viewed as closer to 50/50. Now that viewpoint may have changed since or the situation may have been misread. Who knows, but I bet the conversations won't stop within the Twins until the decision has to be made.
  2. Chembry
    Extending a QO to Jeffers is the only way to justify not trading him. Otherwise you let him walk for nothing. At least we could get a comp pick if he declines. Jeffers is probably going to get 4yrs/$70-80M. The best comp is probably JT Realmuto who was coming off back to back 2.8 and 2.5 WAR seasons when he signed at 3/$45M, but he was also 35 at the time. Jeffers will be 29. JT grades out better defensively, but Jeffers grades out better offensively at the time Realmuto signed. Wilson Contreras is another comp. He signed a 5/$87.5M for his age 31 season. He was coming off a 3.8 WAR season. At the time of that signing, Contreras was coming off a .243/.349/.815/126 OPS+ season, while Jeffers is at .259/.360/836/134 OPS+. Contreras was better defensively, but has now switched to 1B. Additionally, Jeffers is far and away the best catcher in this free agent class, which may create a bidding war. We know the Yankees need a catcher and they will pay.
  3. Chembry
    I don't think Jeffers is a crazy idea at 1B, but it would be weird to have your best catcher at 1B...LOL!! And that is if the Twins either resign him or he accepts a QO. The FA list at 1B is horrendous. Here is the list: Ryan Mountcastle, Andrew Vaughn, Carlos Santana, Paul Goldschmidt, Josh Bell (mutual option), and Christopher Morel. Yandy Diaz was included on this list, but he reached his vesting option. Andrew Vaughn wasn't very good until he was demoted by the CWS and traded to MIL. Mountcastle hasn't been very good since 2024 and only played in 8g in 2026. Goldschmidt continues to destroy LHP with a 1.012 OPS against LHP in 174 PA for 2026, but was horrendous against RHP. He is also 39. If we want to upgrade at 1B, it would likely come via trade and there are too many options to consider. I think it might be best to move Clemens to 1B. I am also ok moving on from Royce.
  4. Chembry
    The FA market is decent at 2B. Jazz Chisholm, Brandon Lowe, and Gleyber Torres will all be available. Ozzie Albies has a $7M club option and the Braves will exercise that. Jeff McNeil has a club option for $15.75M, with a $2M buyout, so that option will probably be declined. Out of those options, Gleyber Torres isn't eligible for a QO, but Lowe will probably have the QO attached. MLBTR viewed his QO as likely (same boat as Jeffers). Jazz Chisholm is unlikely to receive the QO. Lowe and Torres would be good additions. Both are "ok" defensively, but above average hitters. Lowe is on back to back 30HR seasons. I like Lowe the best, but he will have the QO attached. Torres is pretty good as well and 3 years younger. You don't need to trade any of them. Lee is still at 3B, for which he is +9 DRS since moving. Culpepper stays at SS. The newly signed FA stays at 2B. You don't want to rely on Houston coming up mid year or late 2027. By signing a FA 2B, you allow Houston to "force" his way up. Once that happens, you address the issue, but these have a way of working themselves out.
  5. Chembry
    Based on what I saw from the microcast, appears as if most of the rain will be out of the area before gametime. Another round of potentially light rain looks like it would head through the area between 8:30-9:30 If that holds true they will play. I was at a game last year where it rained pretty heavy all day, but the rain moved on about 1.5 hours prior to game time. With the tarp on the field, they still had to use a hose to wet down the IF prior to gametime.
  6. Chembry
    I just don’t think the Twins get as much as most here expect for a 2 month rental that had recently returned from an 8 week IL stint. But it doesn’t really matter anymore… Back to the topic at hand, it only makes sense to issue a QO since they didn’t trade him. I do think Jeffers will get 4/$70-80M range.
  7. Chembry
    I am aware of the talks, but doubt the Twins could have walked away with that much in excess value. There was quite a bit of speculation on here that the Twins could get Lagrange in the Jeffers deal, and many were saying Lagrange or bust. According to Fangraphs, Lagrange is a FV50 prospect which corresponds to $33M in surplus value. I don't believe that was on the table, or ever would be. We would probably be talking someone 6-9 in the Yankees system as the headliner and Twins fans upset with that return. It's possible that Ben Hess could have headlined that return, but he has durability issues. I get your point about being less likely to hit and further away from MLB and agree with that aspect. My point is that Twins fans would have been upset either way and likely disappointed in the return if they had traded Jeffers.
  8. Chembry
    What do you think we could have received for Jeffers, a 2 month rental coming off 8 weeks on the IL? Jeffers, was tied to the Yankees, what would you expect from the Yankees in return for Jeffers?
  9. Chembry
    The qualifying offer has to be made within 5 days after the world series concludes and players have until Mid-November to accept (roughly 10 days after the QO is made). The current CBA doesn't expire until December 1st, so the QO still applies to this crop of free agents. Whether or not the QO is a part of the next CBA doesn't apply. The QO is a no brainer. That is the only way it makes sense to keep Jeffers. However, Gleeman has insinuated that the Twins are viewing the QO more like a 50/50 chance. Yes, Jeffers was at peak value near the trade deadline, but he had also missed 8 weeks due to the hamate injury. We don't know what was offered for Jeffers, but several outlets confirmed there was interest in Jeffers. However, the value you would have received from a 2 month rental that just spent 8 weeks on the IL probably would have disappointed most. In that case, the value of the comp pick we would get if Jeffers turns down the QO is probably similar to the return we would have received. The question is, will Jeffers take the guaranteed 1 year payday of the QO given the uncertainty of the next CBA? Who knows, but worst case scenario is we have Jeffers on a 1 year short term committment. He will have to make that decision prior to the current CBA expiring.
  10. Chembry
    He also couldn't have been transferred to the 60-day IL, because the 60-day doesn't exist in MiLB and only exists as it pertains to the MLB roster. If they were to transfer him to the 60-day IL, he would have to be promoted to MLB and be paid a MLB salary. On top of that, the IL goes away after the season so he would be taking a roster spot then as well.
  11. Chembry
    I didn’t see it reported anywhere here, but Fedko was released by the Twins. He is signing a minor league deal with the Pirates.
  12. Chembry
    Keeping Jeffers only makes sense if they were going to extend a QO. Gleeman has reported that the QO is still up in the air for Jeffers and also stated that Jeffers would likely decline. It will be an interesting choice given Jeffers will have to make a decision in November and the lockout starting December 1st. It's likely that free agency will be significantly shortened. I do wonder if Jeffers would accept a QO and take a guaranteed $23M contract vs the unknown. Worst case scenario, we have Jeffers one more year or get a comp pick. He will likely get 4/$80M anyway.
  13. Chembry
    Tom Pohlad has committed to raising the payroll in 2027. How much remains to be seen, but he has admitted that cutting payroll for the 2024 season was mistake. https://www.mlb.com/news/twins-chairman-tom-pohlad-says-twins-will-increase-payroll-in-2027
  14. Chembry
    Likely a Buxton IL stint...at least that is my guess. I will be at the game tomorrow. Will be a good time!
  15. Chembry
    Shelton said last night that Buxton was scheduled for a day off today anyway. With the day off tomorrow, it allows them to put off the decision a few days, but that doesn't mean they are unprepared. I am sure they have been preparing for this decision. It seems as if it was inevitable. Buxton looks like he has been grimacing on every swing he has taken. Granted he seemed to be running well in Monday's game, but has looked uncomfortable/in pain at the plate. Plus, it would be better for Jenkins or ERod to make their debut in front of the home crowd on Friday.
  16. Chembry
    Baseball America released their August in season update today. Marek Houston is now on their top 100 list at #90. Culpepper started at #74 in January and now up to #26 in this most recent update. The 5 Twins prospects are: Walker Jenkins (#10) Vaugh Lackey (#23) Kaelen Culpepper (#26) Emmanuel Rodriguez (#45) Marek Houston (#90) Prielipp was on the list but graduated in their July update. Not Twins related anymore, but Dasan Hill was up to #86 in the May update, but dropped off the list by July.
  17. Chembry
    Take this back...Jon Heyman just reported that the Padres are in on Larnach.
  18. Chembry
    Doubt Larnach gets traded now. Astros are getting Varsho.
  19. Chembry
    Fielding Bible had a different take on his defensive metrics. +13 DRS in 2025, +11 in 2024. Historically, he strikes out at a 23-26% rate, which is still below league average but not nearly the rate he has shown this year. His BB rate is also way up this year. My take on Neto is he is proven MLB shortstop with above average MLB production since his debut in 2023. He has put up 14.5 WAR in 3.5 seasons. Plus he is still only 25.
  20. Chembry
    He is +13 last year and +11 in 2024 in DRS by fielding bible. Baseball Savant has a different story in -8 OAA this year, -8 OAA last year, and -5 in OAA in 2024. The two metrics are calculated differently and honestly, I don't know which is better. Pretty sure I have heard Gleeman say he prefers fielding bible over baseball savant, but I could be misremembering
  21. Chembry
    Bob Nightengale said on Foul Territory that the Twins are trying to get Zach Neto...
  22. Chembry
    It appears as if you are correct. Cooper Ingle has been declared as "selected but inactive due to MLB callup".
  23. Chembry
    Cooper Ingle made his MLB debut on June 26th and is on the MLB Futures roster. He was the only one that I was aware of that has made his MLB debut and on the futures roster. Good for Culpepper though! I am excited to see him make his debut, hopefully sooner rather than later. He got hit pretty hard on the hand last night. Fingers crossed it doesn't result in an IL stint.
  24. Chembry
    It's pretty ridiculous that Alejandro Kirk made the final two catchers hitting .183 with a .547 OPS and only 17g played. And it wasn't even close for 3rd place...Kirk had 350,000 votes over Dingler (who deserves to go).
  25. Chembry
    No the Twins have kept him on the 15-day IL
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