Chembry

The statement above is key... I was listening to a Twins podcast today and Falvey directly stated during the GM meetings that the Twins were asking for MLB ready players at the trade deadline. Which is why we got Bradley, Abel, Roden, and Outman. Speculation by the podcasters was that Falvey viewed the deadline fire sale as more of a retool vs a rebuild. Probably thinking that the Twins knew the payroll after the trades would be ~$90M and presuming the Twins would have a similar ~$135M opening day payroll in 2026 as they did in 2025. That would give the Twins ~$40M to spend this off season. Falvey also stated in the GM Meetings that they are waiting for MLB approval of the minority partners to discuss payroll and get their ideas.

I have been traveling for work and finally got the chance to do this. This is iteration #1 I added Winkour to the trade for Soderstrom as a bonus to pry him away from the A's. As it stands Bradley has significantly more value than Soderstrom according to BBTV (41.2 vs 33.3). Not sure if the Cubs like Ober enough to trade for him, but the trade values line up with Wiggins and Long. I have said this before, but I am pretty high on Long after seeing him play many times and I think he could be the future 1B. If he falters, Soderstrom can move to 1B and Roden goes to LF Wiggins and Rojas used as SP depth in AAA. Soderstrom can also play 1B or C. Ford would be the C of the future, but can also play elsewhere. Culpepper starts in AAA, but bring him up as soon as he is ready, move Lee to utility. Trades: Taj Bradley/Brandon Winkour to A's for Tyler Soderstrom Emmanuel Rodriguez for Harry Ford Bailey Ober/Justin Topa to Cubs for Jaxon Wiggins and Jonathon Long FA Signings: Pete Fairbanks - 2/20 Seranthony Dominguez - 2/18 C: Ryan Jeffers ($6.60M) 1B: Jonathon Long ($0.8M) 2B: Luke Keaschall ($0.80M) 3B: Royce Lewis ($3.00M) SS: Brooks Lee ($0.80M) LF: Tyler Soderstrom ($0.80M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Walker Jenkins ($0.80M) DH: Matt Wallner ($0.80M) 4th OF: Alan Roden ($0.80M) Utility: Austin Martin ($0.80M) Utility: Kody Clemens ($1.10M) Backup C: Harry Ford ($0.80M) POS: Add Dead Money Here ($0M) SP1: Pablo Lopez ($21.75M) SP2: Joe Ryan ($5.80M) SP3: Simeon Woods Richardson ($0.80M) SP4: Zebby Matthews ($0.80M) SP5: Mick Abel ($0.80M) RP: David Festa ($0.8M) RP: Kody Funderburk ($0.80M) RP: Cole Sands ($1.30M) RP: Pete Fairbanks ($10.0M) RP: Seranthony Dominguez ($9.0M) RP: Connor Prielipp ($0.80M) RP: Marco Raya ($0.80M) RP: Andrew Morris ($0.80M) POS: Add Dead Money Here ($0.00M) Payroll is 20.77% under budget

In my opinion, the only FA I would consider is a 1B. That is only if the Twins don't address that need through trade. I don't think Mendez will be ready for at least another year or two. I would like Culpepper, Rodriguez, and Jenkins up as soon as they are ready. If Lewis is having another down year, he can platoon with Lee when Culpepper comes up. Roden has also played 1B in the past and could slip in there as well when Jenkins/Rodriguez get the call. I would rather have FA money spent on the bullpen. That being said, we need to have some flexibility to accommodate returning talent if we are active in the trade market. For example, if the Cubs sign Bregman, could we swing Matt Shaw in a trade? Would he play 3B (move Royce to 1B?) or 2B (move Keaschall to 1B)? Same for the Red Sox, a Joe Ryan for Marcelo Mayer trade has been floated by industry sources. If they sign Bregman, would the Twins swing a trade for Mayer? If the Mariners come calling, I hope the Twins ask for Emerson and/or Ford. If the Tigers come calling for Ryan, I hope we ask for McGonigle, Clark, Briceno, etc... Could we swing a trade for Soderstrom from the As (as suggested by some here)? He was a GG finalist in LF this year, but came up as a C and also plays 1B.

He definitely fell quite fast. Remember he had hits in 12 straight ABs last summer as well. But he didn't even hit .200 in AAA this year so that move isn't necessarily surprising.

I am surprised Gasper, Julien, McCusker, and Keirsey weren't also included. A bit surprised that Laweryson was released. He pitched quite well in the chance he was given. I thought he would have at least been given the opportunity to audition for a bullpen spot in 2026...The Angels scooped him up pretty quick. Maybe that also means younger guys will be given a chance in the BP? Who knows...

Laweryson was claimed by the Angels off waivers. I am a little surprised. I thought he would have been a potential option for 2026. He only pitched 7 innings, but performed quite well.

I agree with everything you stated. I listened to the same podcast where MLBTR folks talked about trading Tyler Soderstrom. They also mentioned Shea Langeliers as a potential trade chip, although, Soderstrom would be preferable. The Tigers would be crazy to trade Skubal, but it's unlikely they will agree on an extension before he hits the FA market. I read recently that if, and it's a big if, Skubal becomes available, the Mariners would make a big push for Skubal. Buster Olney reported that the Mariners would be the expected suitor for Skubal. That surprises me because the Mariners rotation is all under team control through at least 2027. https://sports.mynorthwest.com/mlb/seattle-mariners/should-the-mariners-go-all-in-on-trade-for-ace-skubal/1828033 Nevertheless, I wonder if that is specific to Skubal or if the Mariners would entertain a trade for Ryan. Based on the proposed trades for 1 year of Skubal, I don't think it would be out of line asking for Colt Emerson and Harry Ford for Ryan with 2 years of control. Seattle is expecting to bring back Naylor and also make a push for Suarez. They have ~$35M to spend and that lines up well with both Naylor and Suarez potential projected contracts. That would ease the burden on the need for Emerson. Regardless, as you mention, the Twins need to talk to every team and get the very best possible return.

A few things came to mind as I read the article: 1. If we are talking about 18 year old prospects in rookie and A ball as headliners for Ryan with 2 years of control, that should be a hard pass. 2. As others have said, if we are to trade with SF, Eldridge should be the only headliner the Twins should consider. He is a top prospect, fills a position of need, and is athletic for his size. 3. At the time of the Duran trade, we got 2 top 100 prospects (Tait was #56 and Abel was #92 per MLB pipeline). Ryan’s trade value is approximately double, so this return would be a huge disappointment. I know Birdsong or Roupp are considered part of the deal. Both Gonzalez and Level are essentially lottery tickets given they are so young and in the low minors, even though Gonzalez is a top 100 prospect (82 mlb pipeline and BA, 28 FG). 4. Probably the biggest takeaway is that if the Twins are going to trade Ryan, they need to get it right because he doesn’t have to be traded. The headliner talent coming back in return needs to be MLB ready (or very close to it).

You beat me to it. The Padres don't have a very good farm system and traded away what they had to the A's for Mason Miller.

Kelly is a free agent after the 2026 season. Cubs have 4 catchers on their roster, but McGuire may be DFAd and I don't know if the Cubs trust Ballestereos behind the plate. I think odds are low the Cubs trade Amaya. I travel quite a bit for work and try to catch baseball games when I can. I have seen both Ballesteros and Long play a fair amount. Personally, I think Long is underrated as a prospect. His bat to ball skills are quite impressive, he has a low K rate, and a high walk rate. at AAA, he consistently hits the ball hard (90.9 mph avg exit velocity), a 47.1% hard hit rate, and a 10.1% barrel rate. Obviously, it remains to be seen whether that can translate to MLB, but definitely worth a look. He does seem to struggle with high velocity up in the zone, that is one area of improvement he could make. Baseball America has stated in their scouting report that Long has the power and and plate skills to profile long term at 1B. I wouldn't call him unathletic, but he is definitely on the slow side. If the Twins were to trade with the Cubs, I wouldn't be upset if Long was included in the deal. I could also see Matt Shaw being available, especially if the Cubs sign Bregman which has been reported that they are interested. I think any one (if MLB talent like Amaya or Shaw is included) or multiple of Ballesteros, Wiggins, Rojas, or Long could be part of a deal. I don't think they will part with Cassie given both Happ and Suzuki are UFA after 2026. I don't think we want Alcantra. His stock has declined significantly. Back to the topic with the Red Sox. There are so many possibilities/variables with each team, it's so hard to predict. For example, could we get Marcelo Mayer? This has been floated around be several sources into October. There is no way that would happen if the Red Sox can't bring back Bregman, so they probably won't even discuss Mayer until they know about Bregman. Do we even want Mayer with his injury history? Would the Twins take a flier on Kristian Campbell and his contract? How about Ceddanne Rafaela, who is under contract through 2031, with a club option for 2032? Could he become available with plethora of OF the Red Sox have? I think Ryan would have to agree to an extension for Rafaela to become available. The Twins have been interested in Casas in the past. Would they want him as part of a deal? What do the Twins think of Arias, Tolle, Witherspoon, Clarke, Garcia, Early, etc...? Personally, I like Tolle as part of the return. Garcia has the tools, but Ks at a really high rate, even in AAA (29%) and his batted ball data is significantly worse than Long's at the same level. It's fun to speculate, but nobody knows for sure.

And why Joey Wentz? We already tested those waters?

Darren Wolfson reported Buxton likes Shelton and gave a “ringing endorsement”. He is a big fan of Shelton from their time together between 2018-2019. https://kstp.com/minnesota-sports/the-scoop-october-30/

This has happened a few times in the past, as recently as last year. Zebby started 2024 in A ball and made his MLB debut in August 2024. Matt Garza made a similar ascent in 2006 (A to MLB). None of them had the same results Yesavage is having, but some have made a similar ascent.

I don't want to nitpick because I don't think Shelton and Rocco are all that similar and I do agree with your statement. But, both Rocco and Shelton coached for TB under Maddon and Cash. They overlapped between 2011-2016 where Shelton was TB's hitting coach and Rocco held a few different positions.

I thought this was an interesting interview: https://omny.fm/shows/rosters-to-rings/behind-the-plate-to-behind-the-lineup-derek-shelton This podcast was recorded right after the regular season ended and playoffs about to start. He talked about his mistakes in Pittsburgh and what he would do differently if given the chance to manage again.

Exactly. I don’t think Shelton is a bad manager. By all accounts he is well respected and a good baseball guy. However, a different voice, not previously affiliated with the Twins would have been refreshing. I was hoping for Servais, but who knows if he even interviewed for the position. All that was reported was that the Twins were interested in him.

Dan Hayes just reported that the Twins have narrowed the the list down to Derek Shelton, James Rowson, Ryan Flaherty, and Scott Servais.

I saw the same thing. Don't know if there is any truth to it or not.

What I am getting from most of the conversation here, is that fans expect a player to be traded or non-tendered if they have a down year. Is that correct? I am not particularly high on Wallner, but not necessarily down on him either...I think the vast majority of Wallner hate is unjustified and skewed on "what has he done for me lately" attitude based on 2025, ignoring the rest of his career. Here are his stats from 2022-2024: Season Age Team WAR G PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ 2022 24 MIN -0.3 18 65 57 13 3 0 2 10 6 25 0.228 0.323 0.386 0.709 103 2023 25 MIN 2.2 76 254 213 53 11 1 14 41 28 80 0.249 0.37 0.507 0.877 138 2024 26 MIN 2.2 75 261 220 57 17 1 13 37 24 95 0.259 0.372 0.523 0.894 149 Totals 4.1 169 580 490 123 31 2 29 88 58 200 0.251 0.312 0.500 0.866 140 10% BB 34% K Season Age Team WAR G PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ 2025 27 MIN 0.5 104 392 336 68 16 3 22 40 46 114 0.202 0.311 0.464 0.776 110 12% BB 29% K The stats show that over 2022-2024 Wallner was a well above average hitter. BABIP also took a big hit in 2025 going down from .361 to .228. Hard hit rate also reduced from 51.5% down to 45.5%. 2025 was a down year, no question, but that doesn't necessarily mean he can't return to pre-2025 form. And even though 2025 was a down year, he still played above replacement level. With that being said, Wallner should mostly DH. Defensively he has averaged -4 OAA since he came into the league. That also means ERod, Jenkins, etc... have stepped up and taken that role. There is no reason to trade or give up on him. Someone else mentioned Kyle Schwarber. I would put Wallner and Schwarber as similar architectural type of hitters. Power hitters that K at a significant rate. Schwarber has a career 34% K rate, but most here also value Schwarber very highly. Schwarber has had his ups and downs as well. He has two seasons where he hit below .200 (.197 and .188) and two others just above .200 (.211 and .218). I am not trying to compare the two, just pointing out that even highly regarded power hitters have up and down years. According to BBTV, Wallner has a trade value of 22.5 and Jared Jones has a BBTV of 19.5. Pretty close in value but would be considered a minor overpay by the Twins.

MLBTR reported, by way of LaVelle, that the Twins are interested in Scott Servais. Off topic but also interesting…MLBTR also reported that Pujols and Hunter are out of consideration for the Angels position.

Marcelo Mayer has a significant injury history as well. There is no chance that the Red Sox part with Mayer if they can't bring Bregman back. If they do bring Bregman back, I somewhat agree with your comments, but the likelihood is higher. This trade has been floated by many sources, even into October. So it's not coming out of nowhere, but agree that the odds are very low: https://www.si.com/mlb/red-sox/boston-red-sox-news/red-sox-blockbuster-trade-idea-swaps-marcelo-mayer-for-twins-all-star-jackson3 https://www.newsweek.com/sports/mlb/red-sox-predicted-to-trade-marcelo-mayer-for-twins-all-star-10842973

Both Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober were named preseason dark horse Cy Young candidates by MLB. https://www.mlb.com/news/2025-mlb-cy-young-award-candidates

I have seen him pitch several times in both AAA and MLB, that was my takeaway as well.

I'm not as big on the Mets system as others here, but love all the comments. McLean would be interesting for sure, he definitely had a strong debut. I'm not as high on Jonah Tong. I don't know much about Benge or Williams. A trade of McLean and Vientos for Ryan could be interesting. As someone else pointed out, Vientos has played 1B at both the MLB level and in the minors, and would be under team control through 2029. However, as someone else pointed out, I would love to see other entries in this series. Particularly, Red Sox, Phillies, Cubs, and Giants.