Chembry

What's interesting about Ober's velocity, is that Perkins specifically mentioned (either during TV or radio broadcasts, I can't quite remember) that Ober would consistently hit 92-93 during his bullpen sessions...even late into the season. Why didn't that transfer into games? I think there is more to the story than just mechanics. We know he was dealing with hip issues since spring training last year. I wouldn't be surprised if that lingered even when coming back off the IL in July.

That is definitely going young!

I think it was a better to be safe than sorry situation. They just traded for him and he has hit at every level so far. Would be a stretch for any club to pick him, but better to be safe.

He is solid, but yeah that’s the reason Boston DFA’d him. Along with pursuing Alonso. I think Lowe is scheduled for a 4th arb year as well, but not sure on that. Another reason to let him hit free agency first.

Ramon Urias was also dfa’d by the Astros…he may be worth a look as well.

Probably worth a flier, but I don’t think that happens at the $13.5M projected salary for next year. More than likely let him hit FA then try to negotiate.

Is is possible to believe that Falvey thought of the deadline as a retool? Falvey and other GMs directly stated at the GM meetings that the Twins were specifically asking for MLB talent or MLB ready guys. That is the reason we got Abel, Bradley, Roden, and Outman (I cringe saying that name)...That's the reason the Twins were asking for Jarren Duran or Wilyer Abreu from Boston... The Twins knew how much payroll they cut and knew they would be at approximately $90M going into 2026. Falvey probably assumed with the pending sale at the time, the payroll would be at the same level (about $135M) going into 2026. The Twins didn't get pulled off the market until August 13th. If that were reasonable, that would give the Twins about $40-50M to spend this off season. To be honest, that was probably a reasonable assumption by Falvey at the time. This was stated on a Gleeman and the Geek podcast. We could put a fairly competitive team on the field adding $40M in payroll to this roster (FA 1B, backup C, a few RP, a FA SS). If payroll is cut back, This would be the 2nd time in 3 years the rug was pulled out from under Falvey. There is no way that Falvey would have signed Correa to the contract he did knowing the payroll was going to be slashed, significantly inhibiting his ability put a competitive team on the field. I am not defending Falvey in any way...He has made many mistakes, but putting everything into context, it makes sense. Given what we know now, this offseason will tell us everything. Shelton said he talked with the Pohlads/Falvey about payroll and "heard what he wanted to make him want the job". Take that as you wish. I can't see Shelton taking the job without some sort of agreement on investment into the roster. Personally, I don't want them to run it back. I want to see changes. I would like to see them add to payroll, but also trade for a 1B or C prospect...Try to improve not only for 2026, but also 2027 and beyond. That doesn't necessarily have to be a full on rebuild, but it does involve tough choices on Lopez/Ryan/Ober, Lewis, Lee etc... In my opinion, the worst thing they can do is stand pat on position players and only add a few relievers.

Here is my gripe. There are several 1B prospects that could contribute next year and would probably be “relatively cheap” to acquire. Tre’ Morgan, Ryan Clifford, Jonathan Long…why not try to get better? Casas is an MLB option that needs a change of scenery. Do something to try to get better. I like Kody well enough and he would be an above average utility player, but should only be a utility guy.

I am not sure why the Dodgers would want to pursue starting pitching...They have Ohtani, Snell, Yamamoto, Glasnow, Roki Sasaki, River Ryan, Gavin Stone and Emmet Sheehan as starting pitchers. River Ryan is coming off of TJ surgery and Gavin Stone had shoulder surgery. Both missed 2025 due to injuries, but were very good in 2024. Sasaki and Sheehan were used out of the bullpen in the playoffs. I don't think the author is up to date on the Dodgers...In another article published by the same author on November 15th, a trade proposal for Steven Kwan offered up James Outman in return... I do like the Rushing and Freeland part of the trade though.

That is a tough question to answer. They are quite different and it could change, particularly with Tait, but I will give it a try. As I see it right now, Ford has the higher floor, but Tait has a higher ceiling. Ford is a potential to be an above average everyday catcher. Here is a direct quote from the fangraphs scouting report: "He's still not the best receiver and pitch framer, but Ford does enough other stuff at a very high level to be an above-average catcher." He is unusual in that he is very athletic and an above average runner who stole 35 bases in AA, but isn't going to hit a ton of HRs (~15/yr). He has shown he can hit at the AAA level, but he is blocked by Raleigh. Tait has the potential to be a middle of the order bat. At 19, he already has above average MLB power. He has the potential to hit a lot of HRs, but also lacks plate discipline. There are questions if he can stick as a catcher or eventually move to 1B, which lowers his floor. He is probably 3 years away from us seeing him in MLB. He still has quite a bit of work to do. Since Jeffers is a FA in 2026 and Ford could be available, it may be worthwhile to see if the Twin/Mariners can agree on a package. It all comes down to what Seattle would want as a package. If they want Lewis, Jenkins, Culpepper, etc...I would say no. Seattle doesn't have much higher level SP depth, so that is the place I would start the discussion.

Per MLBTR, sounds like Seattle is open to trading Harry Ford. Ford could be the stop gap until Tait arrives. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/11/mariners-notes-ford-right-field-hancock.html Should the Twins pursue this and see if we could match up on a trade? RF for them was a bit of a rotation between Canzone, Raley, and Robles. I wonder if we could match up on and trade some our OF depth? Seattle's rotation is all under contract through at least 2027, but they don't really have any upper level SP depth, so that could be an option as well. Yes/No...what does everyone think? I would say yes, but obviously Jenkins would be off limits.

Falvey stated at the GM meeting last week that they are waiting for MLB to approve the minority partners. He also specifically stated once they are approved, they will discuss payroll and get the minority partners ideas on payroll.

I agree on BBTV…I use it more of a guide. There are definitely some limitations to BBTV. I know the A’s are looking for pitching and MLBTR floated Shea langeliers as trade bait on a recent podcast. One of them, can’t remember who, also stated Soderstrom as an option as well. Bradley, is still only 24, has quite a bit of upside and under control through 2029. I thought Winkour might put the deal over the top with his tools. But you’re right, it may not be enough.

Falvey specifically stated Prelipp and Raya as bullpen options at the GM Meetings.

The statement above is key... I was listening to a Twins podcast today and Falvey directly stated during the GM meetings that the Twins were asking for MLB ready players at the trade deadline. Which is why we got Bradley, Abel, Roden, and Outman. Speculation by the podcasters was that Falvey viewed the deadline fire sale as more of a retool vs a rebuild. Probably thinking that the Twins knew the payroll after the trades would be ~$90M and presuming the Twins would have a similar ~$135M opening day payroll in 2026 as they did in 2025. That would give the Twins ~$40M to spend this off season. Falvey also stated in the GM Meetings that they are waiting for MLB approval of the minority partners to discuss payroll and get their ideas.

I have been traveling for work and finally got the chance to do this. This is iteration #1 I added Winkour to the trade for Soderstrom as a bonus to pry him away from the A's. As it stands Bradley has significantly more value than Soderstrom according to BBTV (41.2 vs 33.3). Not sure if the Cubs like Ober enough to trade for him, but the trade values line up with Wiggins and Long. I have said this before, but I am pretty high on Long after seeing him play many times and I think he could be the future 1B. If he falters, Soderstrom can move to 1B and Roden goes to LF Wiggins and Rojas used as SP depth in AAA. Soderstrom can also play 1B or C. Ford would be the C of the future, but can also play elsewhere. Culpepper starts in AAA, but bring him up as soon as he is ready, move Lee to utility. Trades: Taj Bradley/Brandon Winkour to A's for Tyler Soderstrom Emmanuel Rodriguez for Harry Ford Bailey Ober/Justin Topa to Cubs for Jaxon Wiggins and Jonathon Long FA Signings: Pete Fairbanks - 2/20 Seranthony Dominguez - 2/18 C: Ryan Jeffers ($6.60M) 1B: Jonathon Long ($0.8M) 2B: Luke Keaschall ($0.80M) 3B: Royce Lewis ($3.00M) SS: Brooks Lee ($0.80M) LF: Tyler Soderstrom ($0.80M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Walker Jenkins ($0.80M) DH: Matt Wallner ($0.80M) 4th OF: Alan Roden ($0.80M) Utility: Austin Martin ($0.80M) Utility: Kody Clemens ($1.10M) Backup C: Harry Ford ($0.80M) POS: Add Dead Money Here ($0M) SP1: Pablo Lopez ($21.75M) SP2: Joe Ryan ($5.80M) SP3: Simeon Woods Richardson ($0.80M) SP4: Zebby Matthews ($0.80M) SP5: Mick Abel ($0.80M) RP: David Festa ($0.8M) RP: Kody Funderburk ($0.80M) RP: Cole Sands ($1.30M) RP: Pete Fairbanks ($10.0M) RP: Seranthony Dominguez ($9.0M) RP: Connor Prielipp ($0.80M) RP: Marco Raya ($0.80M) RP: Andrew Morris ($0.80M) POS: Add Dead Money Here ($0.00M) Payroll is 20.77% under budget

In my opinion, the only FA I would consider is a 1B. That is only if the Twins don't address that need through trade. I don't think Mendez will be ready for at least another year or two. I would like Culpepper, Rodriguez, and Jenkins up as soon as they are ready. If Lewis is having another down year, he can platoon with Lee when Culpepper comes up. Roden has also played 1B in the past and could slip in there as well when Jenkins/Rodriguez get the call. I would rather have FA money spent on the bullpen. That being said, we need to have some flexibility to accommodate returning talent if we are active in the trade market. For example, if the Cubs sign Bregman, could we swing Matt Shaw in a trade? Would he play 3B (move Royce to 1B?) or 2B (move Keaschall to 1B)? Same for the Red Sox, a Joe Ryan for Marcelo Mayer trade has been floated by industry sources. If they sign Bregman, would the Twins swing a trade for Mayer? If the Mariners come calling, I hope the Twins ask for Emerson and/or Ford. If the Tigers come calling for Ryan, I hope we ask for McGonigle, Clark, Briceno, etc... Could we swing a trade for Soderstrom from the As (as suggested by some here)? He was a GG finalist in LF this year, but came up as a C and also plays 1B.

He definitely fell quite fast. Remember he had hits in 12 straight ABs last summer as well. But he didn't even hit .200 in AAA this year so that move isn't necessarily surprising.

I am surprised Gasper, Julien, McCusker, and Keirsey weren't also included. A bit surprised that Laweryson was released. He pitched quite well in the chance he was given. I thought he would have at least been given the opportunity to audition for a bullpen spot in 2026...The Angels scooped him up pretty quick. Maybe that also means younger guys will be given a chance in the BP? Who knows...

Laweryson was claimed by the Angels off waivers. I am a little surprised. I thought he would have been a potential option for 2026. He only pitched 7 innings, but performed quite well.

I agree with everything you stated. I listened to the same podcast where MLBTR folks talked about trading Tyler Soderstrom. They also mentioned Shea Langeliers as a potential trade chip, although, Soderstrom would be preferable. The Tigers would be crazy to trade Skubal, but it's unlikely they will agree on an extension before he hits the FA market. I read recently that if, and it's a big if, Skubal becomes available, the Mariners would make a big push for Skubal. Buster Olney reported that the Mariners would be the expected suitor for Skubal. That surprises me because the Mariners rotation is all under team control through at least 2027. https://sports.mynorthwest.com/mlb/seattle-mariners/should-the-mariners-go-all-in-on-trade-for-ace-skubal/1828033 Nevertheless, I wonder if that is specific to Skubal or if the Mariners would entertain a trade for Ryan. Based on the proposed trades for 1 year of Skubal, I don't think it would be out of line asking for Colt Emerson and Harry Ford for Ryan with 2 years of control. Seattle is expecting to bring back Naylor and also make a push for Suarez. They have ~$35M to spend and that lines up well with both Naylor and Suarez potential projected contracts. That would ease the burden on the need for Emerson. Regardless, as you mention, the Twins need to talk to every team and get the very best possible return.

A few things came to mind as I read the article: 1. If we are talking about 18 year old prospects in rookie and A ball as headliners for Ryan with 2 years of control, that should be a hard pass. 2. As others have said, if we are to trade with SF, Eldridge should be the only headliner the Twins should consider. He is a top prospect, fills a position of need, and is athletic for his size. 3. At the time of the Duran trade, we got 2 top 100 prospects (Tait was #56 and Abel was #92 per MLB pipeline). Ryan’s trade value is approximately double, so this return would be a huge disappointment. I know Birdsong or Roupp are considered part of the deal. Both Gonzalez and Level are essentially lottery tickets given they are so young and in the low minors, even though Gonzalez is a top 100 prospect (82 mlb pipeline and BA, 28 FG). 4. Probably the biggest takeaway is that if the Twins are going to trade Ryan, they need to get it right because he doesn’t have to be traded. The headliner talent coming back in return needs to be MLB ready (or very close to it).

You beat me to it. The Padres don't have a very good farm system and traded away what they had to the A's for Mason Miller.

Kelly is a free agent after the 2026 season. Cubs have 4 catchers on their roster, but McGuire may be DFAd and I don't know if the Cubs trust Ballestereos behind the plate. I think odds are low the Cubs trade Amaya. I travel quite a bit for work and try to catch baseball games when I can. I have seen both Ballesteros and Long play a fair amount. Personally, I think Long is underrated as a prospect. His bat to ball skills are quite impressive, he has a low K rate, and a high walk rate. at AAA, he consistently hits the ball hard (90.9 mph avg exit velocity), a 47.1% hard hit rate, and a 10.1% barrel rate. Obviously, it remains to be seen whether that can translate to MLB, but definitely worth a look. He does seem to struggle with high velocity up in the zone, that is one area of improvement he could make. Baseball America has stated in their scouting report that Long has the power and and plate skills to profile long term at 1B. I wouldn't call him unathletic, but he is definitely on the slow side. If the Twins were to trade with the Cubs, I wouldn't be upset if Long was included in the deal. I could also see Matt Shaw being available, especially if the Cubs sign Bregman which has been reported that they are interested. I think any one (if MLB talent like Amaya or Shaw is included) or multiple of Ballesteros, Wiggins, Rojas, or Long could be part of a deal. I don't think they will part with Cassie given both Happ and Suzuki are UFA after 2026. I don't think we want Alcantra. His stock has declined significantly. Back to the topic with the Red Sox. There are so many possibilities/variables with each team, it's so hard to predict. For example, could we get Marcelo Mayer? This has been floated around be several sources into October. There is no way that would happen if the Red Sox can't bring back Bregman, so they probably won't even discuss Mayer until they know about Bregman. Do we even want Mayer with his injury history? Would the Twins take a flier on Kristian Campbell and his contract? How about Ceddanne Rafaela, who is under contract through 2031, with a club option for 2032? Could he become available with plethora of OF the Red Sox have? I think Ryan would have to agree to an extension for Rafaela to become available. The Twins have been interested in Casas in the past. Would they want him as part of a deal? What do the Twins think of Arias, Tolle, Witherspoon, Clarke, Garcia, Early, etc...? Personally, I like Tolle as part of the return. Garcia has the tools, but Ks at a really high rate, even in AAA (29%) and his batted ball data is significantly worse than Long's at the same level. It's fun to speculate, but nobody knows for sure.