Chembry

Yes Detroit needs another good SP to compliment Skubal. He will be gone after 2026, so they need another top of the rotation guy.…Mize is ok and Flaherty hasn’t been very good. Personally, I think Max Clark would be off limits, but worth asking. Like you say, if we are going to trade Ryan, I hope we scour every opportunity to get the best value. But I wouldn’t be jazzed about trading Ryan within the division.

I agree, we should be shooting for multiple top prospects if we trade Ryan. When I look at prospects, I look at MLB, Fangraphs, and Baseball America. I compare scouting reports between sites and I watch a lot of baseball (both in person and streaming). Personally, I have seen both Ballesteros and Long play. Ballesteros is rated #53 MLB (#2 org, 55), Fangraphs not rated (FV45), BA #32 MLB (#1 org, BA grade 50/medium). MLB and BA grade him higher on his hit tool and say the same thing. Advanced bat to ball skill and consistently hits the ball in the air with authority. HR totals likely limited due to all field approach. Fangraphs grades him lower in that regard and that’s where the difference is. However, from 2023 until present, he has shown that advanced bat to ball skills reaching AAA at 20 and MLB at 21. I watched a fair bit of him streaming and a few games in person. His bat to ball skills are impressive. I think his value is brought down by his catching grades. He isn’t a great defensive catcher. Long was just named as the Cubs minor league player of the year. He wasn’t a highly touted prospect and drafted in the 9th round. Going into 2024, he wasn’t on anyone’s radar. He isn’t rated in the top 100 of any list, but would be one to include in a package. He is rated as #7 org (MLB, 50 grade), Fangraphs #9 org (pre 2025 season #17, FV 40+), BA #7 org (BA grade 45/high). Again, Fangraphs doesn’t rate his hit tool as high. Both MLB and BA have similar scouting reports in which Long has advanced bat to ball skills and plus raw power. He works counts well and is selectively aggressive. He doesn’t chase at a high rate as evidenced by his low K rate and high BB rate. BA has the statement “he has the plate skills and power to profile long term at 1B.” Same as with Ballesteros, I have seen him play a fair bit. His pure power and bat to ball skills were just as, if not more impressive than Ballesteros. He showed that off by hitting .340 avg/7HR/29 RBI/.983 OPS in 42g at AA in 2024 and continued that through 140g at AAA in 2025. That sustained production deserves a look. My guess is his value is somewhat brought down his run and arm grades. Nevertheless, I was solely focusing on 1B prospects as compared to Eldridge. Just saying we can get good value with other prospects as well. As mentioned, Long wouldn’t be a headliner, but one to ask to be included with Alcantra, Wiggins, Ballesteros, etc…that is if we trade Ryan. Maybe we could get Long for Ober being evened out one way or another? My only issue with Eldridge is his K rate, but would be ecstatic if we got him. But other than Eldridge, I am not sure who the Twins would ask for? Randy Rodriguez? Erik Miller? Some other RP? They have publicly stated their focus is pitching, so maybe they would be willing to part with Eldridge. FWIW, there are other packages that would be very intriguing. I am not closing the door on trading for a cost controlled MLB option either…fun to speculate about.

Eldridge should certainly be in the discussion, especially since Devers is playing more 1B with 3B being locked down by Chapman. But the Giants may not want to move Eldridge and relinquish Devers to mostly DH duties. Beyond Eldridge, there isn't much else to get excited about in SF's minor league system. Most of the Giants top prospects are AA or lower, so we would most likely ask for a reliever. But there are also other potential 1B trade targets whose clubs make more sense, like the Cubs. The Cubs currently have Michael Bush, who is under team control through 2030 (I believe). They have 2 prospects in Moises Ballesteros (C/1B) and Jonathon Long (1B) who would be worth a conversation. I don't think the Cubs would part with both, but may be willing to part with one of them. Jonathon Long is interesting. Here are some stats AAA for Eldridge, Ballesteros, and Long. Player Age Level G PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS Eldridge 20 AAA 66 286 253 63 13 0 18 63 28 88 .249 .322 .514 .836 Ballesteros 21 AAA 114 509 446 141 29 1 13 76 49 67 .316 .385 .473 .858 Long 23 AAA 140 607 514 157 23 3 20 91 79 116 .305 .404 .479 .883 As you can see, Eldridge will hit HRs, but K rate is very high (31% at AAA, MiLB career 27% K rate) and a high walk rate (10%). On the other hand Long has a lower K rate (19%) and higher walk rate (13%), but won't hit as many HRs. Ballesteros is more of a pure hitter who doesn't K as much (13%), still has a high walk rate (10%), hit for a high average in AAA, but doesn't project to have the power of the other two. Ballesteros also has had success in a short MLB stint this year (.298 avg, 2 HR, 11 RBI, .868 OPS in 20g) Defensively, Long is better than Eldridge as it sits today. Eldridge only started playing 1B in 2024, with his first year in pro baseball playing OF. Eldridge has a very strong arm and was a 2 way player in high school. Ballesteros is in between Long and Eldridge. All three are below average runners. There are many others players that could be targeted, including cost controlled MLB C/1B. I just wanted to point out that there are other prospects that bring a similar value. Personally, I would be happy with any of the 3 discussed.

First, let me say that we agree that Clemens shouldn't be an everyday starter, but I do think he is a decent bench piece. I think perceptions on batting average need to change a bit. MLB league wide batting average was .245 for 2025. The days of multiple guys having averages >.300 with 30+ HRs are long gone. This year only 7 guys in MLB had averages at .300 or above (Judge, Bichette, Jacob Wilson, Springer, Jeremy Pena, Trea Turner, and Yandy Diaz). Compare that to the year 2000 (I just picked a year). League average was .270 and 53 players hit at or above .300... Clemens really wasn't that far off from league average in terms of batting average. The difference between hitting .250 and .300 is about 1 hit/week. Put that in terms of Clemens batting average. He played May through September (5 months). Figure 4 weeks/month, that would be 20 more hits in 2025. Those 20 hits would bump his average up to .270, which is well above league average. He would have only needed 11 more hits over 5 months to be at league average. That tells you that the margin is very thin. There are other stats that support your statement (wRC+, xBA, etc...) that show he was at replacement level. But batting average is such a thin margin that our viewpoint can be a bit skewed.

Mendez hit a HR in his first AB of the AZ fall league tonight.

Luke was the only real choice for this award. For what it’s worth. Baseball America also named Keaschall on their all rookie team.

St. Louis is in dire straights and looking at what appears to be a significant multi-year rebuild. They want to trade Arenado and Sonny Gray. The Athletic and MLBTR have reported they are willing to eat money to trade them, so would cross them off your list. But understand your point that the package would have to be significant to get Ryan. SF, Red Sox, and Cubs are close. The Cubs have some interesting prospects that would be fun to see in a Twins uniform. Not sure they would part with Ballesteros, but he should be one Twins need to target. Johnathon Long (1B) is another prospect that the Twins could ask as part of a package. I watched him play a few games and he hits the ball hard. Long hit .305/ 20 HR/ 91 RBI/ 19% k rate/ 13% BB rate in 140g at AAA this year.

I believe the 40-man deadline is November 18th. I don't think the non-tender/arbitration deadline is set yet, as far as I can tell. Last year it was November 22, 2024. I imagine it will be a similar date this year.

This is my impression as well. Most here are saying the limited partners are hedge funds only caring about their ROI. However, I have seen it stated many times that the partners are families, one from MN and one from the east coast. The more important statement is that Falvey said in his recent press conference that the limited partners WILL be included in the offseason conversation and have a say as to how the Twins will proceed.

Those are important questions...and we won't know the answer until the moves are made.

I think you are correct in your assessment of the 4/$80M territory on Naylor. He is only 28, so I could see him trying for a longer term contract I think we would all love to lock down 1B for an extended period of time with Naylor, but I just don't think the Twins are going to spend that much. We could be wrong because they did ask for Christian Walker in return for Correa, but Houston shut that down. Walker is short term though with only 2 years remaining on his contract. I see Ryan O'Hearn as a more likely option at 1B. I see him more as a 3/$30M type of deal, with opt outs. As TD writers have suggested, Rhys Hoskins is also a possibility and may be cheaper than O'Hearn. This is only if we go the FA route for a veteran 1B. Falvey did say in his press conference about bringing in veterans to help the team win, but that has a host of different meanings.

I don't think the Twins will look at OF targets either, but we need help at C, 1B, and RP. I assume that if the right opportunities present themselves, the Twins will only trade either Pablo or Ryan, but not both. I may be wrong though. I also assume that the Twins want a top 100 prospect that can make a MLB impact right away or a highly regarded cost controlled guy that was a recent prospect. There are a myriad of possibilities of trade targets, so let's break it out by team (not every team, just a select few that could fit): Red Sox: We know the Red Sox love Ryan and tried to acquire him at the last minute. That package was rumored to include Peyton Tolle and Marcelo Mayer, but the Twins wanted a package headlined with Jarren Durran or Wilyer Abreu. If the Red Sox offer Jarren Duran in a trade I think the Twins will think hard about it, but not necessarily a target. Targets: Marcelo Mayer (INF) (#15 prospect in 2024), but he is coming off a season ending wrist injury. Trevor Story and Bregman may opt out and Red Sox may need his services. Peyton Tolle (LHP) (#27 Overall, #2 Bos, #3 LHP in MLB)- Can never have too much pitching. Climbed from A+ to MLB in his first full season of pro ball and made BOS roster for the wild card round. Pitched in last nights game. Came in with the bases loaded, 2 outs, and down 1 run in the bottom 8th inning. That gives you the idea in the confidence BOS has in him. Triston Casas (1B): Dealt with injuries the past few years, but still only 25 years old. At 23 he played 132 games with a .263 avg, 24 HR, 65 RBI, .856 OPS, 26.5% K rate. A true power hitting 1B that will K a decent amount, not a great runner, and also a below average fielder Yankees: There is quite a bit of talk about the Yankees moving Judge to 1B due to his elbow issues. The Yankees could inquire about Wallner or Larnach as well as Pablo/Ryan. If that is the case, that could make Ben Rice or Austin Wells available. The Yankees don't have a ton of high end prospects that are close to MLB ready. George Lombard is in AA and didn't hit particularly well there (.215). Spencer Jones is a LH hitting OF, and we are abundant in that regard. Targets: Ben Rice (C/1B): Hit .255 avg, 26 HR, 65 RBI, .836 OPS in 138g this year. Played 99g at 1B and 37g at C. Below avg catcher, average 1B, but is a pretty good hitter. His batting run value is in the 87th percentile in MLB this year. Austin Wells (C): Hit .219 avg, 21 HR, 71 RBI, .712 OPS in 126g this year. Very good defensive catcher. Threw out 24% base stealers. Can also play 1B...played 28g in college there. Cubs: The Cubs are interesting and they have quite a few targets we could go after. Targets: Moises Ballesteros (C/1B) (#50 MLB, #2 Cubs, #4C): Very good hitter. Hit .316 at AAA and .298 in 20g with the Cubs. Made the Wild Card Roster. Not a great defensive catcher, 18% CS rate at AAA. Can also play 1B and played 62 games there in the Minors Miguel Amaya (C/1B): Probably not a headliner, but could be thrown in because the Cubs have Ballesteros. Dealt with a few injuries this year but hit .281/4 HR/25 RBI/.814 OPS in 28g this year. Career .236 avg over 3 years. However, has a career 17% CS rate at MLB and 36% CS rate in minors. Can also play 1B Michael Bush (1B): Traditional power hitting 1B, but I don't think the Cubs will part from him. He hit .261 avg/34 HR/90 RBI/.866 OPS in 155g this year. He is a bit older at 28, but under team control through 2029. Johnathon Long (1B) (#7 Cubs, #6 1B): Traditional power hitting 1B. Hit .305/20 HR/ 91 RBI/.883 OPS this year at AAA. Slow runner and average fielder at 1B. Kevin Alcantara (OF) (#5 Cubs): If the Twins want a RH hitting OF, he may be the guy. Hit .266/17 HR/69 RBI/.819 OPS in AAA, but also has a 29.5% K rate at AAA. Hit .364 in 10 games this year with the Cubs. Mariners: The Mariners were in the hunt for Jhoan Duran. There has been some speculation as to who they offered but there really isn't many targets they have, but the one they have is very good. Most of their prospects are in A ball with the exception of Colt Emmerson, who is almost certainly off limits. Target: Harry Ford (C/OF) (#39 MLB, #4 SEA, #2 C): Harry Ford could bridge the gap until Tait arrives. He is blocked by Raleigh at the MLB level. Not your prototypical catcher because he has speed. Hit .283/16 HR/74 RBI/.868 OPS in AAA this year. Stole 35 bases at AA last year. Good defensive C that has thrown out 23% of potential stolen bases in the minors. These are just the targets that I have looked at in the past and I am sure there are plenty of others.

I also heard a statement from Falvey in an interview, but I can't seem to find it. Like you said, he used specifics on how a rotation would look with Pablo, Ryan, and Ober leading the group. He also said a nugget about adding to next years roster...but I can't find it and don't remember exactly how it was stated, so I didn't include it.

Falvey has been on record at least twice since the trade deadline saying he is looking forward to a 2026 rotation led by Pablo and Ryan. In all reality, CEOs/People in leadership positions rarely speak in certainties because directions change often, However, he did say the Twins don't have a clear direction as of yet going into 2026. Those conversations happen between now and into November. He also stated that those conversations WILL include the limited partners, so yes they have a say how the Twins move forward. We can go into the offseason with a clear plan. With that being said, plans can and will change. You never know what is going to happen when the phone starts ringing and conversations start flowing. We can say that we expect Pablo and Ryan to be back, but if another team really wants Joe or Pablo and drastically overpays, the Twins wouldn't turn down the offer, nor should they. If the Red Sox offered us Jarren Duran, Peyton Tolle/or Marcelo Mayer for Ryan, the Twins shouldn't turn down that offer. Purely hypothetical and a gross overpay by Boston but it illustrates my point. For what its worth, Falvey also stated that the new manager will have to work with developing talent at the major league level, but also with veteran guys that they bring in to help win. That tells me they are looking to add, but also has a whole host of meanings so we need to wait to see how that shakes out. Jeremy Zoll was asked if there are any players that are untradeable. He reiterated Buck has a full no trade clause and Buck is adamant about being a Twin for life. They love Buck and excited he feels that way. He then went on to state that to speak on any other individual guy would be ill advised because they have to evaluate each and every opportunity. Decoding what both Falvey and Zoll stated = Nobody is off the table (other than Buck), but the asking price will be very high and teams may not want to pay. Personally, I hope both Pablo and Joe are back for 2026.

Agree, any of those choices would be good. I will also add Scott Servais to your list and I would put him right behind Skip Schumacher in terms of desirability. He isn't young (58), but has experience in a very similar situation with the Mariners. He managed the Mariners from 2016-2024 and now works in player development for the Padres. After the 2018 season, the Mariners traded away Robinson Cano, Edwin Diaz, and others...they went into rebuilding mode. At the 2019 deadline, they traded away 3 more pitchers and finally finishing 2019 with 68 wins. He used 2020 as a development year and had the Mariners back to a 90 win team by 2021. He is a local guy (La Crosse) who meets all criteria you laid out except being relatively young, but I don't see 58 as being old per say.

What about Scott Servais who managed the Mariners from 2016-2024? He has experience with rebuilding teams. After the 2018 season, Seattle unloaded Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz. At the 2019 deadline, Seatlle dealt 3 more pitchers and finished 2019 with 68 wins. They were rebuilding. He used 2020 as a development year and had Seattle back to a 90 win team by 2021. He now works for the Padres in Player Development. Plus he is a local guy (La Crosse, WI).

That list outdated and looks to be from 2024, This is just a few of the list that I know off the top of my head: Skip Schumaker left the Marlins after the 2024 season and is now an assistant to the GM for the Rangers. He probably has the inside track to the Rangers managerial position. David Bell was fired in 2024 by the Reds and now vice president of baseball operations and assistant general manager for the Blue Jays. The Reds are now managed by Terry Francona Scott Servias was fired the Mariners in 2024 and now works for the Padres in player development Will Venable is now the White Sox manager. My guess is the Twins will look hard at both Jayce Tingler and Toby Gardenhire. Personally, I like Scott Servais. He is a local guy (Lacrosse, WI) and has experience with rebuilding teams. He managed Seattle from 2016-2024. In 2019 Seattle finished with a 68-94 record and they traded away a bunch of players after 2018 and at the 2019 deadline. By 2021 he had them back to a 90 win team by 2021.

Baseball has been and is a huge part of my life. I played through college and now coach on top of my day job. Additionally, I have been a STH for a while and renewed for next year. My 9 year old son has also picked up my love for baseball. He plays travel, watches MLB recap rundown every morning, and follows many other players. Obviously, the Twins are our favorite team and we want them to win, but we are still watching major league games and players. Buxton, Pablo, Ryan, Keaschall, Lewis (when he is hot) are really fun to watch. I have been fortunate enough to have several conversations over the years with Buxton and Pablo. Both are fantastic people! Buxton even signed my son’s cast when he broke his wrist over the winter. Definitely understand where you are coming from, and most fans would. Hopefully, the young guys we will start seeing next year will bring some life to the Twins. Ultimately, I do believe the team we will see next year will be more fun to watch, and more competitive than what we are seeing now. My hope is that the way this year ends leaves a sour taste in their mouths and put in extra work during the offseason.

This has been my perspective all along.

I would love that deal for the Twins, but I don't think the Cubs would go for that... The Cubs currently have 4 catchers rostered. Carson Kelly is signed through 2026 and Miguel Amaya is pre-arbitration. Reese McGuire will probably be non-tendered after this year. And they recently promoted Ballesteros. I don't know if they will let him go...I can see them shopping Miguel Amaya to hold on to Ballesteros.

I love Michael Bush and Moises Ballesteros for Ryan, but no way the Cubs accept that offer. I could see Bush and a lower prospect, or Ballesteros and another high end prospect like Kevin Alcantra or Johnathon Long.

Naylor keeps getting thrown out there, but what about Ryan O'Hearn? Obviously, I would rather have Naylor, but I know Seattle has expressed interest in re-signing him and I assume other teams will be in the mix. I assume O'Hearn will be cheaper than Naylor. Average stats over last 3 years: Naylor: 137G, .276avg, 22 HR, 97 RBI, 15% K rate, 8% BB rate, .803 OPS, 123 OPS+, 122 wRC+, 2.1 WAR O'Hearn: 129G, .272 avg, 15 HR, 58 RBI, 18% K rate, 8,5% BB rate, .781 OPS, 120 OPS+, 118 wRC+, 1.7 WAR Average Statcast metrics over Last 3 years: Naylor: Batting run value = 15, Baserunning value = -1.3, Fielding run value = 1, Outs above average = 1.6 O'Hearn: Batting run value = 8, Baserunning value = -1, fielding run value = 1.3, OAA = 2.7 As mentioned previously, if we are going to sign a FA 1B, I would rather have Naylor, but O'Hearn isn't a bad option either and could be had for a bit less money. If we are going to the depths of France, Wilmer Flores, Josh Bell, etc...I would much rather let the younger guys get a shot. Let's also not discount trading for a pre-arb C/1B. There could be several options available.

I understand the Hayes article said that. I read the article and the article on the Cubs last year. I don’t believe it was a cost cutting measure. We don’t know who his source is and I don’t want to speculate. Dodgers, Angels, Giants, Cubs, Red Sox, Mariners, Rays, and Brewers have all cut their pro scouting departments in the last 5 years. Significantly cut their departments. Cubs reduced staff by 20, Angels by 23, Dodgers by 13, Giants by 13, Mariners by 23, Both Rays and Brewers reduced by 10…are they all cutting costs? Absolutely not. The Cubs are looking to resign Tucker, Dodgers, Giants, Red Sox never shy away from spending money… The only reason this it’s viewed as a cost cutting measure is because it’s the Twins and the Pohlads. I am not a Pohlad apologist, I want them gone as well, but this move in particular isn’t a cost cutting measure.

Spot on with all your posts in this thread... It wasn't a cost cutting move...Many other teams have also cut their pro scouting departments in favor of video scouting. Cubs cut their scouting department last year. It's more a sign of the direction the MLB is heading versus cutting costs.

I don't think it's necessarily a given. Falvey has been on record twice since the trade deadline saying he is looking toward 2026 with a rotation led by Pablo and Ryan. Here is a direct quote from an article in the Athletic published August 27th: “I look at a Pablo López- and Joe Ryan-led pitching group,” Falvey said. “With guys like Bailey Ober, Zebby Matthews, David Festa and Simeon Woods Richardson behind, with all of these other young players like Taj Bradley, Mick Abel and a kid named Kendry Rojas, who’s not quite there.” Link to article: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6573800/2025/08/27/twins-starting-pitching-depth-options-2026/ The other was an interview with Darren Wolfson. That doesn't necessarily mean it won't change and it may very well once the offseason begins and the phone starts ringing. But I don't believe it's the done deal most assume.